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16-May-2020 21:22

SIA / SIA

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Bro, it also depends how much lost can u stomach .... at the current 3.9, if you cut lost now, yr lost is around $1.1K (minus commission and CFD interest).

The next 14 trading days is really unpredictable. In medium term, i am also believe it will go down ....but as judging from the past 7 trading days, there seems to be an invisible hand that is pushing up and pulling it down. If it' s being pushed up, every $0.10 up, u will lose $1.1K..... will it gives you sleepless night?

You must also set a time frame too ... cos after rights exercise, it may stay sideline for certain time, and you will also need to pay interest for your CFD shorts (5% if you are using Philips Security). If it doesn' t go up or down, how long you will need to wait before cutting lost?

Win2607 ( Date: 16-May-2020 20:16) Posted:

I lost about 10k, lncluding the bitcoins trading. This is my last float...

Win2607 ( Date: 16-May-2020 20:05) Posted:

Thank you so much for your enlightenment, Much appreciated... FINALLY I can see some light at the end of the tunnel, actually I plan to let it go already. But I am thinking I might get some helps here. I shorted 11000 shares at $3.80. This is my last float.....

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16-May-2020 12:10

SIA / SIA

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I feel it' s more 14 days (4 days of rights trading + 10 more days before rights will be credited into the CDP).

If we use the last day pre-right price of $5.91 which has taken into account of potential of coming loss and right exercise, when it shot up to $5 which didnt make sense because its was trading at equivalent to pre-right price of $8.

However, when it was pushed down to $3.7, its equivalent to $4.7 pre right price. It' s $1.2 difference.

Even at the current price of $3.9, it' s equivalent to $5.25 (pre right price)

This may go either way ...... it' s more risky to short at this stage as there is a possibility that it might rebound back to 4.15 which is back the reference price (last day pre right of 5.91). Everyone is already expecting a more loss on the last day before XR, and fundamentally, nothing changes since then. It shouldn' t explain a drop of $0.7 from ($5.91 to $5.25) in just 7 trading days.

After the new shares have been flooded, we might see dip again as ppl will be selling their newly converted shares.

AhLiang ( Date: 16-May-2020 09:10) Posted:

It is 4 more days of punting to go. The mother shares and Rights are being punted up and down by BBs. Hence these 4 days very hard to predict. When all shares merge the main shares will most probably be cheaper than yesterday''s. Next quarter''s results will be very ugly. Next few years SIA will continue to make losses, meaning share prices will stay depressed for a long time. Personal view.

uiop1223 ( Date: 16-May-2020 08:34) Posted:

I would say play within your means. One alternative is to close 50% of your shorts.. etc. I expect the price to drop more in June and early jul when they release the qtr review for Apr - Jun. Just a suggestion.

Im still long term bearish on SIA but i think the price that u short is not attractive.

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16-May-2020 11:48

SIA / SIA

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I think with the current pandamic situation where all countries closing their borders, and all major airline cutting/ stopping flight, if we don' t retain control of SIA, we might not be able to transport any critical essential into Singapore.

Therefore, we need to keep SIA afloat, and Temasek need to retain the majority control.

gregtan123 ( Date: 16-May-2020 11:39) Posted:

actually u make one of the most sense here. Haha SQ without G intervention will be long dead. 2nd is yes 100% MCB in the next 15 months, again T take all with our CPF $$$ and savings. with 10 billion, T can be investing in other things that make 25% return minimally.

uiop1223 ( Date: 16-May-2020 11:35) Posted:

SIA will issue more debt via MCB. Which to them is good, since no payment until they choose to redeem. Unlike normal bonds where it needs to pay coupon periodically.

Its very clear this is a distressed company and will collapse if not for govt intervention

Instead of thinking buffet quote of < be greedy when people are fearful > , why not relate to his another quote < Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked

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15-May-2020 19:21

SIA / SIA

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From the price movement yesterday and today. $3.7 seems to be the bottom. Wont need Temasek to subscribe the unsubscribed rights ..... but i doubt any many shareholders will dare to subscribe the MCB .... Temasek will most likely have to fork out $$$ for MCB.

TA_Expert ( Date: 15-May-2020 19:15) Posted:

There could be reasons why Temasek want to support the price even though she guarantees the full subscription.

Imagine the share price keeps falling from $4 all the way to $3 before Thursday, what does it show? A lost of confidence? No existing shareholders will take up the rights. By having a floor, say $3.70 before Thursday, it will entice existing shareholders to take up the rights.

Secondly, it is a face thingy. After Thursday, the news come out that the rights subsciption is super under subscribed. It is damaging to Temasek and the govt reputation. On the contrary, If the subscription is overwhelming subscribed, you will see headlines appearing in media stating that investors show confidence to SIA and aviation sector, etc. Singapore govt will be pround of SIngaporeans to show support.

From the way it looks, the price won' t crash until Jun.

nngeeh ( Date: 15-May-2020 18:32) Posted:

Even if the share price drops back to 3.5, 3.6 ... as long as there is a gap from the exercise price, ppl will subscribe. It doesn' t need to stay at 4.

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15-May-2020 18:56

SIA / SIA

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As is fully underwritten by Temasek, even if the price fall below $3, Temasek will be fully subscribe their entitlement + and any other rights that are not taken up by shareholders. Why will it fail ?

newbieliu ( Date: 15-May-2020 18:45) Posted:

u right provide the mother shares go back below 3.70 and that will fail the fund raising lol and it will not happen as they need the money from investors lol

nngeeh ( Date: 15-May-2020 18:32) Posted:

Even if the share price drops back to 3.5, 3.6 ... as long as there is a gap from the exercise price, ppl will subscribe. It doesn' t need to stay at 4.

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15-May-2020 18:49

SIA / SIA

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Temasek owns more than 50% ... and my understanding is that they will need to make announcement even if it is their indirect investment that is increasing the shareholding.

Unless Temasek owns less than 5% (direct or indirectly), they will not need to make announcement.

newbieliu ( Date: 15-May-2020 18:42) Posted:

We already mentioned that they have many investment companies that they can utlise to support it secretly if they want . As long as they dont exceed 5% , there is no need to make any announcement LOL.

And, they will not let this be paid by them through official announcement hence mother shares and right shares willbe supported .

Look at the shortists attack today. You should know that they are no match to the amount of bullets they shoot through the snipers (investment companies under their subsidiaries) . Hence despite the known fact that they have made a huge loss in hedging and miraculous loss in one quarter, we already foresee next quarter wont look good.

One of the forummer also mentioned that hedging for 5 years, there are 2 sides of the coins. Hopefully the oil will go backto 40-50 dollars by next quarter then we could see the loss is salvaged lol.

Nonetheless, I am vested a little la. worst is use some cash to convert to mother shares lol

nngeeh ( Date: 15-May-2020 18:36) Posted:

I agreed. It' s fully underwritten by Temasek. The rights will be fully taken up regardless of the pricing. Since they will be subscribing all, there is no point for them to come in at this price to support. And if they do, we' ll definitely see that in the announcement but we have not seen any so far and i doubt we' ll see it in the next few days

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15-May-2020 18:36

SIA / SIA

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uiop1223 ( Date: 15-May-2020 18:30) Posted:

I already mentioned earlier that this fund raising will not fail. Temasek will pay for any unsubscribe rights when the trading of rights ended... and they DONT need to go to the mkt to buy the rights.

So those who buy the rights and bet till next week, take care. Coz temesak will not buy from u.

newbieliu ( Date: 15-May-2020 18:14) Posted:

mmm 3-4 years is a high risk investment as it does not guarantee 100% return on your capital though... Where as it is usual for the right share to trail behind mother shares for such a huge margin one... correct me with some past examples of blue chips...

For penny stocks, we understand it should trail behind as anytime no one wanna suscribe when shortists keep attacking the mother shares until it is meaningless to suscribe the right shares..... when that happens, NO one will invest in SIA by suscribing to the right shares that start off at $1 and need retailers and investors to top up $3 to invest in the company.

Simply to say, buy on Monday if there is any dip since TH wont let this fund raising to fall LO

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15-May-2020 18:32

SIA / SIA

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Even if the share price drops back to 3.5, 3.6 ... as long as there is a gap from the exercise price, ppl will subscribe. It doesn' t need to stay at 4.

newbieliu ( Date: 15-May-2020 18:28) Posted:

not surprised it bounce back strongly next week to entice more ppl to buy the right shares happily (esp if you already own the 2 right shares for every 3 mother shares you have before 6 May)?

In other words, mother shares HAVE to be supported by sgd 4 die die by 21 May else right shares will fall through since i can buy mother shares at cheaper price and no need to pay extra 3 dollars to own the mother shares (for those who are given the 2 free right shares).

I hope it makes cents ?lol

TA_Expert ( Date: 15-May-2020 17:47) Posted:

If the price can go back to $4.40 after Thursday, it will be a shock to shortists

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15-May-2020 18:29

SIA / SIA

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If you observed the trading yesterday, after lunch, the selling faded. I think the shortists have already started covering since yesterday. If the share price reaches 4.4, majority would have already covered their position. It was pumped up to $5 before the shorting started all the way down to 3.70, and then, it stopped ... and they have already started covering since then.

TA_Expert ( Date: 15-May-2020 17:47) Posted:

If the price can go back to $4.40 after Thursday, it will be a shock to shortists.

Acl2013 ( Date: 15-May-2020 17:39) Posted:

The 4.4 it is the watershed as this is the day when announce the right issue balance price, let hold n watch.

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15-May-2020 13:51

SIA / SIA

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Highly possible ... especially after the rights are converted into shares, but i doubt it' ll drop below 3.7 in near future.

Who knows, if there is a major development on vaccines, it might shoot back up above $4? ... but i think the chance of staying at this level or dropping back to 3.7+ is more possible (my view)

Aataat1 ( Date: 15-May-2020 13:26) Posted:

Any possibility mother share goes back to 3.70 range

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15-May-2020 12:06

SIA / SIA

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u mean someone shorted the MCB to below $1?

Well, it' s like any other shares .... it might go down (even if it' s traded like bond). Either you cut lost, u will keep for 10Yrs ... and hope SIA redeem halfway and pay you the interest, or wait for it to be converted to SIA shares at technical price of $2.67.

Then, you will have to do the maths ... and look at the mother price then and MCB ... will it be more worth to just sell MCB straight to the market or just wait for it to be converted.

Nowadays, even bond can disappear ....it' s not considered secure anymore.

gregtan123 ( Date: 15-May-2020 12:00) Posted:

But this assumes you have to pay 1 dollar to convert right. say you have 29,500 MCB R, you got to pay 29,500SGD? Am more curious, what happens if people short sell the MCB then when it ends, they. never cover?

nngeeh ( Date: 15-May-2020 11:55) Posted:

The MCB rights is trading at $0.001/ $0.002. However, when MCB start trading, it should be around $1.00/$1.01 or $0.995/$1.000.

If you buy at $0.001, u might be able to sell at $1.01 ...... it should be traded like bond.

If you have 2950 MBC rights, u will only get back $2.95 (if u sell at $0.001). However, u' ll be charged commission of $25. It' s not worth it. Either you subscribe or you let it lapse.

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15-May-2020 12:00

SIA / SIA

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For Option B, it should be $2.67. Because of the culmulative interest, your $1 will grow to around $1.8 (if i' m not wrong), and then be converted at $4.84 ... so ... technically it' s $2.67.

If pandamic continue to discrup the airline industry more than 2 yrs ... the current rights of 8.8B will not be sufficient. If another rights is required ... it will go below $2.67. I won' t want to wait for 10yrs.... but again, since the MCB is tradable, you can always sell it to the market.

westpoison ( Date: 15-May-2020 11:37) Posted:

So MCB to most is just a bond that earn up to 6% interest.

Option A: If Share price increase sharply, SIA will redeem earlier, so it will be between 4-6%.
Option B: If share price dropped, then the sucker will have to force convert at the price of $4.84.

but that is in 10 years time and covid will be a history of the past so I think option A is more likely. Alot of hedge funds may buy it?

nngeeh ( Date: 15-May-2020 11:25) Posted:

Judging from the MCB rights price, the MCB will be most likely traded like a bond and may not be influenced much even if the mother share goes up. The catch is that if SIA doesn' t redeem, the share will be converted only after 10yrs at technically $2.67 (if you add interest and conversion at $4+). However, if mother shoots up to say $7, SIA has the rights to redeem and pay with just 4% culmulative interest ...... which will not compensate the different with the mother share price. However, if mother drops to say $2 after 10yrs, it will force to convert into SIA at $2.67.

Doesn' t seem to protect the MCB investors much.

I believe it might open at most $1.01? U still get to earn 1% if you buy now at 0.001

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15-May-2020 11:55

SIA / SIA

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lingua101 ( Date: 15-May-2020 11:44) Posted:

sorry the MCB rights is actually trading at 0.1cents (not 1 cents)

so is it really worth to sell off my 2950 MBC rigthts? it will only worth not even $3 right? minus the brokerage fee. should i just let it lapse?

lingua101 ( Date: 15-May-2020 11:32) Posted:

so you do not think the MCB Rights will be traded higher than 1 cents

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15-May-2020 11:49

SIA / SIA

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Yes, it will stop trading in 4days time. If you don' t intend to subscribe, you will need to sell it. After that, there will only be 2 counters -SIA and MCB.

Depends ... if you sell now, u will definitely get back $0.755. However, if u subscribe, you will not be able trade in the around 16 days .... if SIA goes up, u earn more ... but if it drops like going back to the bottom at 3.70, u will get less. It' s a gamble then.

limcs84 ( Date: 15-May-2020 11:41) Posted:

well said and understood. In other words, it is better to wait till the Rights converted first before trading.

Am i right to say that SIA Right trading $0.755 counter will disappear after 21 May 2020? And after that, there will only be one main counter (SIA) $3.83 ? Correct?

nngeeh ( Date: 15-May-2020 11:36) Posted:

The SIA right is selling at $0.755 now. If u sell, u will only get back 0.755.

If you subscribed at $3, and when u get the share into your CDP (in around16 more days), and if the SIA price is still around $3.83, you will sell your SIA share and earn $3.83 - $3. However, not sure if SIA will stay at $3.83. Very likely it' ll drop back to 3.7+ when the rights are converted.

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15-May-2020 11:36

SIA / SIA

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limcs84 ( Date: 15-May-2020 11:29) Posted:

Hi, can I say that SIA price at the market right now is considered the right price? So which means, if I bought and have the SIA Rights already. So technically I can sell my Rights share now at the stock market and earn that $3.83-$3.00? Am I right to say that?

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15-May-2020 11:25

SIA / SIA

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lingua101 ( Date: 15-May-2020 11:09) Posted:

so confirm i will get the MCB rights on CPF right. so I have to sell it.

I asked the bank how many I have. they cannnot tell and ask me to wait for the letter which they said they have sent out on 13-May :(

If I have 1000 shares, should i just MBC rights of 2950 shares at 1 cents?

sncm3425 ( Date: 15-May-2020 11:02) Posted:

You either have to sell off or buy with cas

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15-May-2020 10:52

SIA / SIA

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I believe it will hold at the current level or maybe high 3.7+ for short term ..... i still think 3.70 will be the bottom until the next Q result. Loses is expected ... but whether it is within expection. If the loses balloon, it will drop below $3.7 (my view)

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14-May-2020 22:48

SIA / SIA

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The selling pattern for today after lunch looks different to the last 6 days. It may hover around 3.7 ~ 3.8 but i don' t think it' ll drop to 3.2 tomorrow even though the future is red now.

mrwise ( Date: 14-May-2020 22:19) Posted:

$3.2 tomorrow. Before heading below $3....

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14-May-2020 20:55

SIA / SIA

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Last quarter lost 803 million. Raising 8.8 billion ... which means its able to handle ard 8 quarters of similar loses. If the pandemic continue to disrupt the airline industry, we' ll see another rights exercise after 2 yrs.

Hopefully, this pandemic will go away after 1 yr

josemmm123 ( Date: 14-May-2020 20:47) Posted:

If SIA keep losing money for the next few quarters, Temasek has to issue rights again to save it ==> dilution to the shares again and price can even drop to $2? no?

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14-May-2020 20:22

SIA / SIA

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This result show that it' s risky to own airline.

Even with 48 years of profit, it can' t handle 5 months of crisis (or 1/2 years if this crisis dragged on) ..... and needing billions to support it.

Starship ( Date: 14-May-2020 19:47) Posted:

Singapore Airlines posts first annual net loss in 48-year history after COVID-19 cripples demand
14 May 2020 06:11PM(Updated: 14 May 2020 07:30PM)

SINGAPORE: National carrier Singapore Airlines on Thursday (May 14) reported the first annual net loss in its 48-year history after COVID-19 crippled travel demand, saying that it has set up an internal task force to review its operations and to prepare for when air travel recovers.

In a filing to the Singapore Exchange, SIA Group reported a net loss of S$212 million for the 12 months ending Mar 31, a reversal from the S$683 million profit in the previous year.

It lost S$732 million in January to March this year. In comparison, it made S$203 million net profit in the same period last year.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-airlines-sia-q4-full-year-results-covid-19-coronavirus-12732134

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