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SIA
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nngeeh
Veteran |
16-May-2020 12:10
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I feel it' s more 14 days (4 days of rights trading + 10 more days before rights will be credited into the CDP). If we use the last day pre-right price of $5.91 which has taken into account of potential of coming loss and right exercise, when it shot up to $5 which didnt make sense because its was trading at equivalent to pre-right price of $8. However, when it was pushed down to $3.7, its equivalent to $4.7 pre right price. It' s $1.2 difference. Even at the current price of $3.9, it' s equivalent to $5.25 (pre right price) This may go either way ...... it' s more risky to short at this stage as there is a possibility that it might rebound back to 4.15 which is back the reference price (last day pre right of 5.91). Everyone is already expecting a more loss on the last day before XR, and fundamentally, nothing changes since then. It shouldn' t explain a drop of $0.7 from ($5.91 to $5.25) in just 7 trading days. After the new shares have been flooded, we might see dip again as ppl will be selling their newly converted shares.
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TA_Expert
Supreme |
16-May-2020 12:07
Yells: "The World has changed" |
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Of course, he is not doing charity. He will do whatever it takes to benefit the stakeholders. Since he is selling banks, so we should also sell our local bank shares too? lol...... Let wait for DBS at $10 or lower. 
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uiop1223
Supreme |
16-May-2020 12:01
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Can buy reits? Since interest rates will be low for next 10yrs
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Acl2013
Veteran |
16-May-2020 11:53
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Don' t give wrong info, the last day of CR is 5 May, 8 May is XR not entitled to R share., believe you have is SIA C6L, it will not gone when sia still there.
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nngeeh
Veteran |
16-May-2020 11:48
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I think with the current pandamic situation where all countries closing their borders, and all major airline cutting/ stopping flight, if we don' t retain control of SIA, we might not be able to transport any critical essential into Singapore. Therefore, we need to keep SIA afloat, and Temasek need to retain the majority control.
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gregtan123
Supreme |
16-May-2020 11:47
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Some say Warren sold Airlines. Now Warren also sold Banks. So even our 3 Banks cannot buy? Haha come over to Pennies land haha. https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-finance/berkshire-sells-majority-of-goldman-stake-trims-jpmorgan?utm_medium=social-organic& utm_source=Facebook& fbclid=IwAR3iU7Ld4McCMNkl8CcpW2ry1p-B2t0KGR-RAE0XZYR50KMcaNpGMnAvucE#Echobox=1589591322 |
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gregtan123
Supreme |
16-May-2020 11:39
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actually u make one of the most sense here. Haha SQ without G intervention will be long dead. 2nd is yes 100% MCB in the next 15 months, again T take all with our CPF $$$ and savings. with 10 billion, T can be investing in other things that make 25% return minimally.
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stanleytay
Master |
16-May-2020 11:38
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Funny how come you didnt say 3.8 is not attractive to short when SIA was going down from 4.3.
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uiop1223
Supreme |
16-May-2020 11:35
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SIA will issue more debt via MCB. Which to them is good, since no payment until they choose to redeem. Unlike normal bonds where it needs to pay coupon periodically.
Its very clear this is a distressed company and will collapse if not for govt intervention Instead of thinking buffet quote of < be greedy when people are fearful > , why not relate to his another quote < Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked>
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stanleytay
Master |
16-May-2020 11:33
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Funny indeed.. when SIA is 10 or 12 plus.. some will say they will only buy at 3 or 4 or even 2 bucks.. but they expect the price to drop there without any change in fundamentals. Now Temasek come in to save SIA, they question the reason why. When Temasek didnt hold on to NOL , they said NOL is better. Moral of story, you can never please everyone.
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gregtan123
Supreme |
16-May-2020 11:25
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MCBs look really good though I really like the MCBs though. I think the best way to play SIA could be via the debt, rather than the equity. With debt you&rsquo re taking on credit risk rather than P& L risk, which looks a lot more attractive. The Rights MCBs will be listed on the SGX in due course, so it will be interesting to watch the pricing and liquidity there. |
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Oldman278
Senior |
16-May-2020 11:13
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* correction
The company has NOT proven how to turn about it
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tofudidi
Supreme |
16-May-2020 11:12
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Hi, whats ur opinion for my current situation? preferably sell it when the price goes up a lil to reduce my losses? other than that if i were to hold it till this pandemic is over does my mother shares still in place or will it be reduced (diluted)?
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Oldman278
Senior |
16-May-2020 11:11
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It is so funny.. investment supposedly to let our money work for us.. kns.. now have to scramble to understand all the stupid rights and mcbs to help ourselves to save our money... and don?t forgot those highly paid idiots...
Anyway, in short, cut loss and don?t look back.. obviously another hyflux or NOL in a making.. Whether TH or Gs want to save it, is not the question. I am sure they could save Hyflux or NOL. Don?t ever forget Singapore is a strategic seaport.. but what happen? Think about it carefully, with the railways and no frill low budget airline, what so great about SIA? Maybe the only thing is safety.. but I am sure Qatar and Emirates Is just as good if not better. With post covids, i highly doubt companies will spend heavily on luxurious flying.... In my opinion, The company has proven how to turn around it, therefore it is just another making money out from the common ppl, so, cut the loss and invest on investment that can work hard for you, not the other way around.. Let the idiots and the rich play on this counter. When the sky is clear, ppl can still come back in rather than get stuck in between the cross fires... My 2 cts worth Dyodd |
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tofudidi
Supreme |
16-May-2020 11:06
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HI, u mean i still have to pay for the rights share even if im not planning to do anything?
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newbieliu
Elite |
16-May-2020 10:52
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As a noob, let me give my personal nooby view. I think it is biased to say Temaseks and other current investors do not give a damn of what the share price of SIA is now. It negatively affect their portfolio to a huge extent if the SIA share price continue to drop despite they have accounted the Quarter loss through the reflective price drop from 9 dolllar plus to 6 dollar plus before the issuance of right that futher depreciate the value to 3.90 yesterday. Not forgetting the retail investors who are lost about exercise of the right shares and bonds, their cost price of SIA shares was damn high if they have been waiting for the dividend only and thinking that the company is there doing well. While we understand it is not enough despite the help provided bythe government for last 3 few months to reduce the impacts to zero, the 75% subsidy to the aviation sectors staff do help to cut the operating cost and expenses. The management, regardless how lousy they are , have their salaries cut 20% etc, these money , however small (in view of the 2.1 billion hedging loss) does its role to reduce the finance cost . While we know they have mentioned the hedging loss, we don' t know if the oil price (29 dollars as of ytd) will continue to stay low or lower in coming months and that means their loss could be further reduced before the contracts maturity. Most importantly, we do not know their contract price too. Can' t be all hired are idiots and their math is worse than mine? It concerns their own salaries and future prospects with the company. like everyone mentioned, dyodd and evaluate it for your own informed decision. |
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Observers
Elite |
16-May-2020 10:41
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My main concern is that 15 mths and the additional 6.2bil of MCBs. Does it mean if within 15 mths the airline industry cannot meaningfully recover (say got 2nd or 3rd wave covid virus), they might just let SIA go under judicial restructuring, debt, creditors and all just like Hyflux?
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newbieliu
Elite |
16-May-2020 10:38
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Agreed that the short price is not a good one.... Personally feel that it has more upside than downward pressure since the " worst moment" is shown and investors are more ready to accept the fact and digesting it. Those who freaked out have also sold at loss some time ago (esp after the chaotic Socgen incident). You could wait for the right moment to close it (perhaps near 3.8 if it dips next week which some of us think it will). Good luck
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newbieliu
Elite |
16-May-2020 10:28
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" Investors will only receive the rights if they are holding SIA shares by the cut-off date of 5 May 2020. Those who qualify for the rights will not be required to pay for them, unless they choose to exercise the rights." The above is copied from a website. Since you did not purchase the mother shares by 5 May, you do not have any right shares. So nothing for you to decide. For those who own the right shares due to the entitlement, It is either you choose to sell by 21 May, 5 pm or you can exercise it during 21 -28 May period. Since you have purchased the shares on 8 May, at high, if you dont exercise the shares, your value will be diluted. If you sell at at a low price for your share value, you would made a direct loss as well. So do consider about the pros and cons of keeping or selling it. Personally, I feel that one should exercise the right shares or you should have cut loss when it spike up when there is confusion on it on 6 May to reduce your loss (if you deem next 1-3 years SIA cannot make it back). I think the original investors of SIA (the 82% of the big/small conglomerates ) might not relinquish their right shares at a loss since their original mother shares has been discounted (hence drop to 3.90 a share of 15 May).
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NT1825
Master |
16-May-2020 10:14
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You still can keep the mother shares if you have not sold anything. If you do nothing on the rights share - you still need to pay up the $3000 per 1000 shares. So better to sell off first before 21 May.
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