ShareJunction - Member Posts

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Does anyone know if Muddy Water is still holding " short position" ? How can i check how many olam share has been loaned out? From the SGX lending pool, there is no " olam share available to be loaned out" . There are many still holding on to the short position.

Even though the profit has gone down, but Olam has not collapsed as predicted by Muddy Water, and it is still paying dividend and interest (for their bond). If the price keep going up north (as more investors come in), it will surely caused a short squeeze. This could even be the reason to explain the price increase even though their profit has gone down. The investors might be holding on until they saw the result on friday which assured them that Olam is not collapsing. Furthermore, there is a safety net that is provided by Temasek. No one will dare to short olam big time with Temasek showing their strong support.

If Muddy water is still holding the short position, i'll also like to hold on to my share until Muddy Water buy back all the shares. It'll be interesting to see the impact to the pricing.

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They did, but they didn't subscribed all. Before rights, they were holding 9.97%, but after the rights exercise, their current holding are 9.74%. If they didn't subscribed, the percentage will be been 6.64% (calculation based on increase number of shares by 50% due to 1 rights for 2 share).

hmphie ( Date: 09-Dec-2013 17:52) Posted:

The swap was tactical indeed. However, I don't think they subscribed to the rights.

nngeeh ( Date: 09-Dec-2013 17:14) Posted:

Sun Spirit is being sued. I believe it is a tactical move by IPCO to protect itself from the lawsuit (and to keep the shares of Blumont). At the current price, IPCO has made 100% gains on the Blumont rights that they had subscribed at 0.05)

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Sun Spirit is being sued. I believe it is a tactical move by IPCO to protect itself from the lawsuit (and to keep the shares of Blumont). At the current price, IPCO has made 100% gains on the Blumont rights that they had subscribed at 0.05).

cccx123 ( Date: 09-Dec-2013 17:10) Posted:

Hmm yea you are right. Missed out that announcement. Strange then.. Who would buy SSGL then.. Unless it is holding something else other then the deemed interest due to collateral pledged for margin financing.

nngeeh ( Date: 09-Dec-2013 17:01) Posted:

I just checked the below url, and it stated that on 11 Nov, Sun Spirit had transferred 185768 lots to IPCO. IPCO still owns around 10% of Blumont.

http://blumont.listedcompany.com/stock_insider.html/year/2013/trader_type/SSH

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I just checked the below url, and it stated that on 11 Nov, Sun Spirit had transferred 185768 lots to IPCO. IPCO still owns around 10% of Blumont.

http://blumont.listedcompany.com/stock_insider.html/year/2013/trader_type/SSH

cccx123 ( Date: 09-Dec-2013 16:36) Posted:

If I am not wrong, SSGL is the holding company for Blumont's stock under IPCO. So selling 70% of SSGL equates to giving up 70% of Blumont. Think it has already been sold. There was no need for shareholder's approval since the disposal is less than 80%. So yea..

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The volume for Olam warrant is healthy today (800 lots done between USD0.250~260), and there are around 200+ lots queueing to buy at USD 0.260 (meaning mother share will need to hit $1.92 for the warrant to be in money).

I believe there will be some price movement soon for the mother share as the warrant transcation volume has been very low for the past few weeks.

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I just checked the SGX lending Pool, and it is showing that there are only 34 lots for lending.

If you look at the url below dated 30 Nov 2012, Olam is the most borrowed stock among Singapore's top 30 companies. Judging from the SGX lending pool, this status has not changed for the past 1 year. The shortist who borrowed the share to short will be incurring huge cost (6%), and with Temasek's backing which will prevent the share price from going below 1.40 (Temasek came in to buy last year when the price when below 1.4), it will be a matter of time when the shortist will need to buy back the share.

I am guessing (my own thought) that once we see that the availability of the lending stock is increasing steadily, it should be the right time to go in. It will be interesting to see if there is any spike on the 1 year anniversary of Muddy water's attack.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/20/olam-muddywaters-idUSL4N0900Q220121120

jwblue ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 11:57) Posted:

If there is a short squeeze, what is the best strategy for current shareholders?

I am a long term investor, but at the same time I would like to make a profit in the case of a short squeeze.

When the stock reaches its high point, what percentage or price will it fall and settle?

nngeeh ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 09:36) Posted:

Sis,

I think your assumption below could be happening soon. I am looking at the price of the Olam warrant today, and there is hardly any sellers. I like to look at warrant, especially those with large exercise price (and with big premium). The trading pattern of these type of warrants give a good indication of the future price of the mother share. At the moment, the buying price is USD$0.220 (equivalent to mother share's price of 1.88), and the sellers are queueing at USD0.29 (equvalent to mother share's price of 1.975). The fact is that all the major Shareholders participated in the rights exercise, but there is hardly any sellers willing to let go even though the warrant is " out of the money" and knowing that the price of the warrant might drop in 1 year's time if it is still " out of money" .

I believe those who are holding on to the warrant is expecting the olam price to go up soon.

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Sis,

I think your assumption below could be happening soon. I am looking at the price of the Olam warrant today, and there is hardly any sellers. I like to look at warrant, especially those with large exercise price (and with big premium). The trading pattern of these type of warrants give a good indication of the future price of the mother share. At the moment, the buying price is USD$0.220 (equivalent to mother share's price of 1.88), and the sellers are queueing at USD0.29 (equvalent to mother share's price of 1.975). The fact is that all the major Shareholders participated in the rights exercise, but there is hardly any sellers willing to let go even though the warrant is " out of the money" and knowing that the price of the warrant might drop in 1 year's time if it is still " out of money" .

I believe those who are holding on to the warrant is expecting the olam price to go up soon.

Rosesyrup ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 13:01) Posted:

I believe you have yet to take into account the following:

Short squeeze when shortists are routing panicly. The stage is already set for short squeeze to happen, just need a spark and the fire go wild.
Huge funds who have exited Olam after MW's attack. These funds will come back once Olam is off their blacklist.
New commodity run in thrid world nations.

With all these factors, $3.20 is not a dream.

nngeeh ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 12:03) Posted:

I'm with you on this (but i thinking more of the TP of 2+). From the recent interview with MW, it seems that they are still holding to the short position, but i think they will be looking for the right time to buy back without the whole Market joining in (which will push it much higher due to short squeeze).

Based on the warrant pricing that didn't drop below 0.20, and the fact that all the major shareholders didn't offload the warrant (based on the warrant transaction volume for the past 1 year), i believe most of the shareholders are expecting it to go above $2. It's almost 1 year since the MW attack, and i think everyone is just waiting for the right moment to go in, maybe the moment that MW start buying back (my view)

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I'm with you on this (but i thinking more of the TP of 2+). From the recent interview with MW, it seems that they are still holding to the short position, but i think they will be looking for the right time to buy back without the whole Market joining in (which will push it much higher due to short squeeze).

Based on the warrant pricing that didn't drop below 0.20, and the fact that all the major shareholders didn't offload the warrant (based on the warrant transaction volume for the past 1 year), i believe most of the shareholders are expecting it to go above $2. It's almost 1 year since the MW attack, and i think everyone is just waiting for the right moment to go in, maybe the moment that MW start buying back (my view).

Rosesyrup ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 11:37) Posted:

Who do you think drove the share to the current price? And that particular entity shall drive it back to 3.20 when the time is ripe.

My new tagline:

Demostration without explanation

Obfuscate ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 09:57) Posted:

Of course it is achievable once the company changes its funding policy from predominantly debt to predominantly equity. None of the companies that did well in the last five years loaded up on debt like the way Olam and all the poor performing companies did.

Let's put things into perspective: Since Muddy Waters' infamous piece Temasek has increased its stake in Olam from 16 pct to 24 pct today and still Olam's share price is 25 pct lower. So this beg's the question: who will be the big buyer to drive the share price up to $3.20

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I agreed that without Temasek, Olam will definitely face difficulty in securing credit to service the loan when they were attached by Muddy Water 1 year back. As their cash was not sufficient, they needs to rely on the line of credit from financial institution. During the attack, the institution might not be able to extend that credit to Olam.

However, we need to factor Temasek's involvement in assessing our investment risk for Olam. Even MW acknowledged that they overlook the political aspect of Temasek (which i believe they will not dare to short Olam back then). With Temasek in the picture (which they now own 25%), it'll definitely offer a lot of stability:

It'll prevent it from being shorted (Similarly, i don't think anyone dare to short China Minzhong if there strong financial backing). As Temasek owns more than 25% (if i remember correctly), in terms of national pride and face value, Temasek will be fully supporting it from financial perspective. If there is a credit issue, Temasek will definitely extend their help like what they have done in the rights subscription 1 year back). Thirdly, it is still profitable, so, as only as Olam can achieve cash flow, with Temasek in the backdrop, i think there is more upsize than downsize unless Olam is reporting huge losses.

Obfuscate ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 09:57) Posted:

Of course it is achievable once the company changes its funding policy from predominantly debt to predominantly equity. None of the companies that did well in the last five years loaded up on debt like the way Olam and all the poor performing companies did.

Let's put things into perspective: Since Muddy Waters' infamous piece Temasek has increased its stake in Olam from 16 pct to 24 pct today and still Olam's share price is 25 pct lower. So this beg's the question: who will be the big buyer to drive the share price up to $3.20?

Rosesyrup ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 01:30) Posted:

Unlike pennies, blue chip tend to go slow but much more predictable. Currently most blue chip fairly valued already except for a few and- we should pause and thanks MW here- is one of those few. I tell you $3.20 highy achievable, you think I must be either joking or trying to lure people in. But nvm you don't buy in first, we shall see about that.

I have been arguing with shortists on this forum for months already. Tired and burnt out, so now demostration without explanation.

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One thing that puzzle me is that Olam's directors brought the Olam Warrant on Sep 23 and 27. The amount is not hugely, but will you invest USD 124K on a single purchase if you are not expecting it to go up?

In the first 2 years, you can't exercise the Warrant (Europe's style), but on the subsequent 3 years, you can exercise the warrant at any time (US style). So, there is normally a premium on the first 2 years, but on the third year, it'll normally follow the price of the mother share quite closely. In another word, the warrant price will be adjusted to follow the mother share's price in just 12 months. So, if the mother share price remains or drops below $1.59, the warrant price can go down very badly from it's current price of USD$0.25.

I have noticed that not only the price of warrant didn't go down (the lowest is 0.193), the price has been going up lately even though the mother price stays at it's current value of 1.50. The bond/warrant rights were oversubscribed by 10%, yet, the volume of warrant transaction was very low even though there is a risk that it the warrant price will go down if the mother share didn't go beyond 1.59 in the next 12 months (or if based on warrant price of 0.25, the mother share needs to be at least 1.90). I recalled that even Jim Roger participated in the rights exercise.

Fundamental aside, the share price is sometimes manipulated by BB to achieve huge gain. Could we be seeing some movement in the next 12 months based on the warrant price behaviour? If you look at Metech, there was a hugh transcation of Warrant purchase before the mother share went up from 0.18 to 3 cents.

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OKH global has been in the red since 2008, and the NAV is around 0.07 cents (if my information is correct). The share price had been hovering around 0.35 cents in April before it shot up to 0.7 cents. This share seems vulnerable to shortist, but i believe that the investors who participated in the recent share placement at 0.68 (total investment of 39million) must have strong financial backing to prevent the share from being shorted (which we saw today). I think shortist might think twice if they still want to short this share again. When i checked the SGX website, the financial adviser for the share placement is Asiasons WFG Capital below. Not sure if this is related to Asiasons.

From SGX

Asiasons WFG Capital Pte Ltd was the financial adviser to the Company in relation to the acquisition of the entire issued share capital of OKH Holdings Pte. Ltd. (the Financial Adviser). The Financial Adviser assumes no responsibility for the contents of this announcement.

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Worst case is that there is no buyer, and sellers selling at 0.001. Even though the price can't go under 0.001, you can't sell any of your share. This happened to Digiland for few months, until recently, there are buyers queuing at 0.001 again.

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Unless Olam has announced officially that they will issue rights, we don't really need to debate the impact on Olam's share price. If it is based on hearsay, i would say that it is just rumours that is intended to bring the share price down.

EZ3626 ( Date: 29-Oct-2013 17:23) Posted:

I'm not being narrow ... consider the current situation of Olam. Please hear from

Roostertan said it very nicely, .... " Sad to say that it is the lack of good management team and poor judgement foresight in extreme M& A that caused their debts to balloon. Wisely to say, whether it is in equities or business investments, always invest with a limit with reasonable cap borrowings."

Olam is highly geared (board). So the best way is through the shareholders who already have a stake in Olam.

Take yourself as an example, you already hold their stock if they were to issue rights or whatever ... would you decide to forgo ... knowing there is going to be a dilution ???

Ok. I will stop here. All the best !!!

Rosesyrup ( Date: 29-Oct-2013 15:13) Posted:

Your raise cash definition is narrow (as in through public offering only) or board (include borrowing from bank)

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I'm agreeable with Rosesyrup's posting. We shouldn't be spreading rumours without facts to substantiate it. Based on Olam's FY13's report, the performance is slightly lower than FY12's report, but the share price is much lower compare to 1 year back. Based on the facts which was audited by accredited auditor, the current price looks very attractive based on the few facts below:

The share price is the same as the NAV, Olam is profitable, paying dividend of 4 cents, and has Temasek's backing. Even if BB decides to short Olam, the share price will bounce back due to it's fundamental which has not changed since 1 year back. The only concern is the gearing which Olam is driving to push it down. Since it is still profitable (EPS of 14.36 cents), it has fundamental to stay or go above it's current price. This is based on FACTS.

	FY2013	FY2012
Cashflow	735	587
NAV	$1.54	$1.45
EPS	14.36	14.96
Profit after Tax	362.6mil	370.9mil
Gearing	1.93	1.81
Dividend	0.04	0.04

	Oct-13	Oct-12
Share price	1.54	1.97