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Rosesyrup Master	12-Dec-2013 12:11        Rosesyrup About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Get your own opinion, don't follow blindly."
x 1   x 1  Alert Admin	To prove inability to pay, need to come up with a debt repayment schedule, mere reason of " High Debt" is insufficient.
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Obfuscate Senior	12-Dec-2013 11:46        Obfuscate About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The ability to repay debt should not be confused with a growing top line. Here are Olam's revenue and cash (outflow)/inflow  from operations in last  few yrs (nos plucked from a financial database), staring with year ended 30 Jun 2013 and working backwards. All in SGD bn. 6/2013: revenue = 20.80 / cash from operations = 0.25.  2012: 17.09 / 0.18.  2011: 15.80 / -1.623.  2010: 10.46 / -0.85.  2009: 8.59 / 0.43.  2008: 8.11 / -0.71.  2007: 5.46 / -0.16.  2006: 4.36 / 0.21.  2005: 3.37 / -0.71.  2004: 2.61 / -0.19. There is net cumulative cash outflows from ops despite growing revenue. I am not surprised Olam is targeted by Muddy Waters.
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Obfuscate Senior	12-Dec-2013 11:25        Obfuscate About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Who is talking about shorting Olam? jwblue      ( Date: 12-Dec-2013 11:21) Posted: When evaluating a company there are only two factors regarding debt that need to be  analyzed. 1) Can the company generate sufficient cash flows to make debt payments? 2) Simultaneously can the company grow revenues?   Olam should be able to accomplish both.   Olam also has the backing of the Singapore government. There are a lot better choices of companies to short.
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jwblue Member	12-Dec-2013 11:21        jwblue About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	When evaluating a company there are only two factors regarding debt that need to be  analyzed. 1) Can the company generate sufficient cash flows to make debt payments? 2) Simultaneously can the company grow revenues?   Olam should be able to accomplish both.   Olam also has the backing of the Singapore government. There are a lot better choices of companies to short.
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derekchong Master	11-Dec-2013 15:41        derekchong About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	down 3 cents. $1.450.
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Obfuscate Senior	10-Dec-2013 18:42        Obfuscate About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The 6.75% coupon US$750m issue has a call px of 103.38 and a call date of 29 Jan 2015. Based on current mkt quote the annualised  yield to call is 13.3% whereas the yield to maturity in 2018  is 7.8%.  Olam is not likely to call unless the company can  refinance the amount  borrowed at a reasonably lower cost. But in order to do this it must have a  much better credit. Based on mkt price of  Olam bonds,  the implied senior unsecured credit is BB-/B+ region, ie. deep in junk territory.  Nobody in the bond mkt  wants to lend to them cheap anymore  because the company is heavily indebted and  management refused to get  the company's credit rated even though Muddy Waters offered to pay for the service. The only consolation is Temasek  is the biggest single party  investor with 24% equity and unknown amount of bonds held. Looking at it from equity investors' perspective, if your expected returns  are  less than the company's  bond yield, you  might just have  over-paid for the shares. For info just S$3.87 bn of its borrowings come from the bond mkt the rest are from banks. Fundamental_Guy      ( Date: 09-Dec-2013 17:08) Posted: I think a lot of that has already been priced in at the rates with which they were offered loans in last 2 years. If you look at their US listed bond, at 6.75% return and currently trading at ~11% yield to potential call this is already way higher than typical offerings (not comparing to any AAA rating even), this was because the riskyness associated with them was back then super high.   Now as the riskyness is somewhat reduced, they should ideally have some cushioining as they are already in the higher spectrum
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gfmkim Member	10-Dec-2013 08:39        gfmkim About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin
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Rosesyrup Master	09-Dec-2013 18:26        Rosesyrup About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Get your own opinion, don't follow blindly."
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Lol, we just relax and wait for big funds to come in.  Fundamental_Guy      ( Date: 09-Dec-2013 17:08) Posted: I think a lot of that has already been priced in at the rates with which they were offered loans in last 2 years. If you look at their US listed bond, at 6.75% return and currently trading at ~11% yield to potential call this is already way higher than typical offerings (not comparing to any AAA rating even), this was because the riskyness associated with them was back then super high.   Now as the riskyness is somewhat reduced, they should ideally have some cushioining as they are already in the higher spectrum
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Fundamental_Guy Member	09-Dec-2013 17:08        Fundamental_Guy About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 2  Alert Admin	I think a lot of that has already been priced in at the rates with which they were offered loans in last 2 years. If you look at their US listed bond, at 6.75% return and currently trading at ~11% yield to potential call this is already way higher than typical offerings (not comparing to any AAA rating even), this was because the riskyness associated with them was back then super high.   Now as the riskyness is somewhat reduced, they should ideally have some cushioining as they are already in the higher spectrum
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Obfuscate Senior	06-Dec-2013 18:06        Obfuscate About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	How much of the S$8.53 bn debt in Sep quarter end do you think is locked in to fixed interest rates? Let me give you a reference point: Keppel Corp's mkt cap today  is $19.7 bn or 5.55x that of Olam's. Keppel's total debt was $6.59 bn at Sep quarter. Keppel had $4.16 bn cash, Olam had $1.19 bn. The two companies are not comparable except for the absolute level of borrowings. U still wondering why Olam's share price  is stuck in the rut and -18.4% year to date? Fundamental_Guy      ( Date: 06-Dec-2013 11:11) Posted: Why do you think it will fall further. Ain't the fundamentals improving with better free cash flow generation, they have already locked in interest rates on debt for coming years so rising interest rates does not also pose an immediate risk.   Their increased entry in the downstream activity etc also will result in better margins.   If this quarter results show a continuation of last quarter numbers, expect a blip up
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jwblue Member	06-Dec-2013 14:06        jwblue About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	STI is down 2.3%. since Wednesda'ys close. The entire market is down.   Not only Olam.
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Fundamental_Guy Member	06-Dec-2013 11:11        Fundamental_Guy About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Why do you think it will fall further. Ain't the fundamentals improving with better free cash flow generation, they have already locked in interest rates on debt for coming years so rising interest rates does not also pose an immediate risk.   Their increased entry in the downstream activity etc also will result in better margins.   If this quarter results show a continuation of last quarter numbers, expect a blip up
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beginners Veteran	05-Dec-2013 21:35        beginners About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Going below 1.4 possible.
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interfact Senior	05-Dec-2013 11:28        interfact About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Dwn 2,5c ro 1,49. Can go lower.
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Obfuscate Senior	20-Nov-2013 10:03        Obfuscate About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	FT: Olam strategy yet to convince investors http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/aa0df8ac-4f50-11e3-b06e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2l9B8HnJS
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Obfuscate Senior	19-Nov-2013 18:40        Obfuscate About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Olam is still stuck in a downward trend - lower highs and lower lows - which commenced in late 2010.
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nngeeh Veteran	19-Nov-2013 14:03        nngeeh About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The volume for Olam warrant is healthy today (800 lots done between USD0.250~260), and there are around 200+ lots queueing to buy at USD 0.260 (meaning mother share will need to hit $1.92 for the warrant to be in money). I believe there will be some price movement soon for the mother share as the warrant transcation volume has been very low for the past few weeks.
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Octavia Supreme	19-Nov-2013 09:22        Octavia About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Olam?s slower earnings growth due to scale-back in capex and its vulnerability to rising cost of debt. Olam?s weak balance sheet and increasing exposure to politically and economically unstable geographies, such as Africa, where risk premiums are higher, reduce justification for valuation discount to narrow. Maybank KE.
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Obfuscate Senior	18-Nov-2013 09:53        Obfuscate About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 1  Alert Admin	Analysts have been dead wrong last few years on Olam. Almost all recomended a buy and keep revising their price target DOWN progressively. At some point they will be right. But look at their record. They once had a $4 12-month fwd price target. Now its more like $2. Can price run up? Yes, especially when the avg daily traded  value is less than  .2% of total mkt capitalisation (the decimal place was missing the last time I wrote).
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FATABA Supreme	18-Nov-2013 09:32        FATABA About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 2  Alert Admin	Good input on OLam.... As they have become cash positive...within a quarter...by any financial management this is good. Researcher are only awaiting to re-rate this counter.  Anyway , those who have bro it below 1.50...hehe can have profit now. Rosesyrup      ( Date: 16-Nov-2013 19:39) Posted: Correct!!! Core profit increased by 28% after removal of accounting distortion!!! Someone in Liongold told me my Olam analysis is a joke. Eh, come on out and explain to us how its is a joke? Lol Shorting Dogs, Keyboard warrior at best.     Despite EBITDA growth across all segments. Olam International grew its core profit by 28% yoy to S$42.3m in 1QFY14, slightly beating expectations, but DBS Vickers cautioned that investors that " we would like to monitor its earnings delivery and sustainability of cash flow improvement for another quarter or two before turning positive on the counter." Still, management insisted on a positive outlook ahead, claiming that while operating environment remains challenging, Olam is expected to see earnings growth stemming from previous investments. Net gearing, which stayed at 1.93x as of end Sept, will be kept below its 2x ceiling. Olam generated positive free cash flow to firm (FCFF) of S$46m (vs deficit of S$707m in 1Q13) this quarter, said DBS. " Further unlocking value of past investments, slower capex pace and higher operating cash flow should keep its positive FCFF in check," said DBS. " The recently announced sale and leaseback of Australoia Almond Orchards is expected to free up A$200m cash and generate one-time post tax capital gain of A$45m when finalised by 3Q14," it added. Rosesyrup      ( Date: 14-Nov-2013 17:43) Posted: Ok Forecast failed. Discouraging Points -Profit 3% hike only -Thanks to much lower other income -Non-cash fair value gain on biological asset is also a huge  factor -Non cash depreciation increased. Encouraging Points -Cashflow start flowing in fromoperating activities as compared to huge cash deficit a year earlier. Should see much bigger cash inflow soon. -Started paying off debt and stopped borrowing -Removing the distortion from non cash biological asset gain, profit still grows by nearly 20%. -Depreciation should reduce as Olam continues operating lease strategy   NVM I hold.
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