| Okay lets crunch some numbers and hopefully in the process have a better understanding of the Thomson Medical Deal.
The original total number of shares of Rowsley before name changed to Thomson Medical was.......
4,738,417,411 shares(4.73 billion shares approx.) and Peter Lim(PL) own 39% translated to 1,849,438,093 shares(1.84 billion shares approx.)
Rowsley the buyer bought over PL' s Sasteria Pte Ltd for $1.6 billion by issuing shares to the Seller at .075 cts which translated into new
21,333,333,334 new Rowsley shares. After Rowsley name change to Thomson Medical, the total number of TM shares stand at ...
4,738,417,411 + 21,333,333,334 =26,071,750.745 Shares
(1) Only the original holders of the shares before the takeover entitled to the bonus warrant (9 cts) and piggy back warrant (12 cts).
Please note Piggy back warrant will be given only to those that convert the 9 cts warrant.
(2) Rowsley in their announcement did mentioned that from the exercise of offering 2 Bonus warrant for every share held, they expect to
receive 850 million dollars and if the one for one piggy back warrant also exercised another 1,130 million dollars(1.13 billion dollars)
The computation is on the original number of Rowsley shares...
4,738,417,411 X 2 Bonus Warrant =9,476,834,822 X 0.09 cts =852,915 million dollars (approx.)
So for Piggy Back Warrant if also exercised at 12 cts the proceeds is 9,476,834,822 X 0.12cts = 1.13 Billion Dollars (approx.)
Some food for thoughts.....
PL' s original stake of 1.84 billion shares are also rewarded with the bonus warrants and if exercised, also rewarded with the piggy back warrants.
If we read the company prospectus it did mention the following.....
" To allow existing Rowsley shareholders to participate in the growth story, shareholders will be offered two Bonus Warrants for each existing share with an exercise price of $0.09. And for every bonus warrant exercised, an additional warrant (Piggyback Warrant) can be exercised on the basis of one piggyback warrant for every one bonus warrant. The piggyback warrant has an exercise price of $0.12 per share. Assuming all warrants are exercised, Rowsley will receive approximately $850 million and $1,130 million of proceeds respectively, which will be used to fund its future growth and working capital."
From above statement it is clearly stated " allowing shareholders to participate in the growth story(Thomson Medical)" . So can we assume that the mother share will run past the 9 cts and in fact a lot higher so as to entice shareholders to convert...yes/no? If Thomson shares don' t run past the 9 cts and go a lot higher before next April to entice...will it be consider a failure, farcical and embarrassing?
So we know PL' s warrants is also computed into the funds of $850 millions...so we can presume that PL' s portion of the warrants will be exercised...question is will PL exercise the warrant himself?
If Thomson Medical shares rises way above the 9 cts, will PL sell a portion of his original shares coupled with the warrants...it can be a scenario of possibilities to have some funds taking a stake in the medical growth in Singapore and Malaysia.
Will this run fizzle out like so many times over the past months? This is a one year expiry warrant... April next year. Usually the last 3 months before expiry, holders will sell their warrants especially when it is out of the money and warrant prices start heading south. So we can assume that by end January next year if the 9 cts warrant is still out of the money, chances players will sell and get out. That leave us with a window period of October(now) to January (next year) to see any positive development in the TM share price. We do know that TM is trying to hive off its non core assets and consolidate the rest hopefully under another listing leaving TM as a pure medical play....in a sense there will likely be a lot of good vibe announcements like the recent hiving off of one company Ariva Pte Ltd to Tang Dynasty Pte Ltd to help propel the share price higher. Hope there are more positive announcements and holders get to realize some gains for keeping faith with the company.
This is just my personal feel and I can be very wrong and I apologise....Many good news and Thomson Medical zoom past 10 cts and entice holders to convert and get the free piggy back. The 9 cts warrant will trade at a slight premium to the mother share and Thomson Medical will zoom past the 12 cts and head higher...by then there will be more than a 100 shareholders who convert the 9ct warrant and the piggy back will be trading. As the piggy back is given free and now trading...for example if mother is 13 cts...9ct warrant theoretically will trade 4 cts and the piggy back trading at 1 ct...the Piggy Back warrant in a devious(lol) way is used as a chaser to entice rest of the holders to convert...... I end with this remark...Peter Lim is a Genius if he can pull this off and meanwhile help shareholders realize enormous gains....possible yes/no? Do you believe?
There are many GURUS in the stock market...most I just listen and take with a pinch of salt. Very few GURUS shake me and for those few that shake me I listen and try figure out.
Good luck if you trading this stock next week. For those who don' t understand what I wrote please let me know and I I try explain. Sorry for being long winded....stuffs that can be super exponential very hard put in words and most time I get laughed at and look really stupid..Panadol does help once in a while.
|
|
Rowsley: 12 October 2017, Thursday, 6.20am Singapore Time (Click on Chart Above to Expand) Attached is the updated technicals fo...
donovan-ang.blogspot.com
|
| 
About nngeeh
Go to Message
x 0
x 0
But if rights price keep falling, he stands to gain, as the minus portion becomes smaller, so he gains. Your calculations explains why profits are cut from his expectations.