|
Back
 x 0
 x 0
|
I' ve been following the possibility of an EN throughout the year not only because of the impact on PA and CF, but also on of CPO prices. The likelihood had dropped from 70% to 50-60%, and the arrival of EN had been rolled back from July to Oct or later. Furthermore, I believe the expectations are for a mild or moderate EN. So, may not impact CF as badly as feared.
stockpicker ( Date: 25-Sep-2014 20:26) Posted:
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
It' s not no news. It' s ' confidential' until someone leaks it and cks start taking advantage ahead of others. By the time retailers get to know and volume and price shoot up and SGX do the customery query, is the time when the real excitement is almost over. .
Lucky03 ( Date: 24-Sep-2014 01:42) Posted:
| I hope to see that they bring in ruthless and shrewd new CFO who can pull all levers and squeeze the organisation really hard to get the cost down and act decisively on corporate restructuring and strategic development ! Too slow. Already 5 weeks and no news if they are selling or going for IPO for APL Logistic. |
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
These profits of doom are just overblowing the situation. Afterall, there there is no accountability. Don' t think it' d be as bad as they say.
yingli ( Date: 22-Sep-2014 19:43) Posted:
Oooor Ooooor
Look like someone is in hot soup now !
How posh homes sold at big-time losses are crippling Singapore banks' profitability
 Singapore Business Review &ndash 5 hours ago
Housing NPL ratio could be at risk.
In Singapore, cases of expensive homes sold at significant losses have stoked fears of more to come, potentially crimping banks&rsquo profitability.
According to a research note from Maybank Kim Eng, however, history has showed that even during 1998-2003 when Singapore and ASEAN were buffeted by major economic setbacks, housing NPL ratios stayed below 5%.
Hard lessons learned, the impact should be more manageable in another major crisis, said the report.
At a 9.8% housing NPL ratio (currently 0.5%), extrapolated from OCBC&rsquo s peak during the Asian financial crisis, UOB should be the most vulnerable, with a 17.8% EPS risk. OCBC is next, with 14.0% and DBS, with 13.9%.
Here' s more from Maybank Kim Eng:
History a good gauge. We think history is a good guide as Singapore is a homogeneous society and no major behavioural shifts among its home buyers have been detected so far.
Borrowers usually only default on their home loans as a last resort. The only difference today is banks&rsquo greater exposure to the housing market, as HDB has scaled back its presence.
HDB&rsquo s current focus on lower-income households has reduced the banking system&rsquo s exposure to the financially less well-off.
While it has ceded substantial ground to banks over the past 10 years, it remains a key financier in the housing sector and continues to extend home financing to less well-off households.
Based on Mar 2014 data, housing loans extended by the HDB amounted to SGD36.6b, constituting 17.6% of all outstanding housing loans.
Housing loans&rsquo historical resilience. Through the global slowdown in 2001, terrorist attacks in the US in Sep 2001 and SARS outbreak in 2002-03, Singapore banks&rsquo housing NPL ratios stayed below 5%.
The exception was OCBC. The above rough economic patches served as hard lessons for the banks and regulators. Since then, banks have spruced up their risk-management systems.
OCBC, which suffered the most from the housing slippage during the Asian financial crisis, was far more insulated when GFC struck. Its housing NPLs continued to improve amid the global turbulence, defying industry trends.
More From Singapore Business Review
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
Before next quarter result announcement, close < 80c. After announcement, factor in the provision for Brazilian tax, close < 70c.
Sophia ( Date: 22-Sep-2014 16:07) Posted:
This coming Friday need to close at 0.835.
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
Yet another bonus issue? But not possible cos SGX has imposed more stringent rules for bonus issues. Still maybe bonus warrants possible.
HVRRVH ( Date: 18-Sep-2014 20:51) Posted:
Coincidence or what? This thread come to live 3 days ago and now trading halt? What could it be? Really going to list a REIT? Some big tenant sign the whole NOL building? Concrete plan for lands in Australia? Halt today chances are we only get to find out on Monday earliest.
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
Divestment gain is abt 5+c/share. SD might be abt 2+c.
Juzztrade ( Date: 18-Sep-2014 19:24) Posted:
Very lucky to buy in at $3.40 just before halted.
Just like strike lottery
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
Yes, it' s an R3 - Real Reverse Rally. Down 3c. God knows where it will end up.
Kyoto2008 ( Date: 18-Sep-2014 08:16) Posted:
Good morning.
Should see a rally today. . GLP is big in China warehouse and logistics ops. Green green green
Not vested.
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
This one if markets are volatile can dive very fast one. But it' s a solid counter and if China really turns around I think can break $3. DYODD though.
Kyoto2008 ( Date: 17-Sep-2014 16:34) Posted:
Strong rebound on price, 4 cents up at this point.
Kyoto2008 ( Date: 17-Sep-2014 00:52) Posted:
Dropped a bit today, not too bad. It' s holding well.
Should do a technical rebound, it' s one stock that is resilient (I believe) due to it' s biz model.
Not vested.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
Two things that cld impact global stock markets over the next two days are - 1. The Fed mtg and 2. the Scottish referundum. For 1. the concern is the Fed might vary its guidance on when interest rate is likely to rise - some speculate that the Fed might guide for a rise that comes sooner than projected earlier. People wld take the excuse to dump stocks in this case. For 2. if the Scots vote to tear up the Union Jack, there cld be volatility in the pound and UK and EU financial markets and the rest of us will not be spared.
But the fact is yr pt is correct. Europe, Japan and PRC are still in printing mood and this wld balance off the increase in US interest rate, if it comes early. And let' s also bear in mind that if US rate goes up and the other major economies are still in QE mode, the Dollar might get too strong and take the winds out of US growth. So, Yellen has got a delicate balancing act to do too ... and so for stocks there' s hope yet that the bears may not chiong in yet.
Kyoto2008 ( Date: 17-Sep-2014 13:03) Posted:
I know, but must be steady lah.
Guys, day before knew what happened?
I think I read somewhere it was Yellen who said some of the sectors like biotech are overvalued. Coupled with this plus the impending Alibaba IPO, many sold in NASDAQ and the broader market to have enough cash for the IPO on Friday. That' s most likely what happened. DJIA actually went up on the same night. Of course, following a bad selloff on NASDAQ and S& P500, the Asian markets reacted in a knee jerk manner dumping everything good and bad.
Then yesterday New York rebounded very strongly. So those who panicked and sold yesterday would be lining up to buy back again. The gainers are the brokers!
Expect Yellen to be supportive of low interest rates until two things happen: 1. Employment is stable and forthcoming. Which is not now,new jobs created fall short of mark 2. Inflation starts showing. Which has not yet since the economy has not picked up enough steam and wages are still depressed.
Therefore, the rest of the week would be green, green. With Alibaba IPO a boost to the market is likely to follow.
The other positive news to the stock market is that as QE in US winds down in Oct (which is a non event, since they have been winding down for a period of time and the effects are already discounted), Europe starts their QE. Plus China is injecting funds into the banks to push up the economic growth.
So there was no need to panic. My gosh, Capitaland, Keppel Corp, all the biggies dropped yesterday as if there is no value in the shares, really scary how people behave in a running herd.
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
Yep, so I kinda regretted for being a bit too fast. But at 89.5 it appeared well contained. Let' s hope so anyway.
khairsy ( Date: 17-Sep-2014 12:24) Posted:
but if you saw yesterday, price went down at 0.895 b4 it went up to 0.90 again....
Qanghoo ( Date: 17-Sep-2014 12:21) Posted:
Yes, yesterday, bought a few lots at 90c, just above the co' s hare buy-back support level.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
Yes, yesterday, bought a few lots at 90c, just above the co' s hare buy-back support level.
Kyoto2008 ( Date: 17-Sep-2014 12:17) Posted:
Cheap again to collect some more. Flushed out all the panic contra players.
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
Will Gen Berhad sell? But if the price is right they might, especially given the regulatory regime under which GS operates. But then again, which towkay wld put in such a huge capital for a meagre return, bearing in mind the regulatory regime?
seanpent ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 18:49) Posted:
nobody knows hor ? if suddenly some big towkays express interest ?
Forglory ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 18:23) Posted:
This is more than a bargain at 1.09!!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
Ya lah, gahment never puak kiau one.
enjoylife77 ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 17:02) Posted:
Unlikely, especially the business comes with a casino component.
seanpent ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 16:04) Posted:
|
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
Thx for making the pt abt Chinese tourists. This, to me, epitomises the concern abt analysts recommendations - their use of seemingly convincing supporting facts to back their recommendations which in a lot of cases people in the street just take for granted as gospel truth when in actual fact they are flawed. And I' m not concerned only abt this particular report. Haven' t we seen too much of this already. That is why there has to be some proper supervision over this industry.
justice ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 08:14) Posted:
Price falls when the supply is more than the demand and this is true in all cases and not just in Gentings' case. However, there are a large number of factors that may be in play, including shares changing hands, and I do not think any one of us here can precisely pinpoint the factor.
I am not saying that fund houses are buying but I do not think that it is illogical to think so.
Your are a veteran in this forum and you should know that analyst reports very often are designed to serve their own purposes.
Kyoto2008 ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 00:47) Posted:
In Genting' s case, price is dipping because more people wants to sell than those buying.
We can' t assume that fund houses are buying in this kind of scenario, think it' s not logical thinking.
The analyst report just serves to confirm the reasons why there are more sellers than buyers.
It' s not bb, fund houses or analysts causing the price to fall, just examine the facts.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
The report below may be from an org with a vested interest interest to influence the price either way. I take issue with the fact that the report is issued so late, almost one mth after GS' latest result. Nothing more than rubbing salt into a deep wound.
qwerty91 ( Date: 15-Sep-2014 21:57) Posted:
when trading volume is so so high, someone could be collecting them. Do not trust analyst. They could be just telling people to sell so that they could collect. Genting is here to stay, so worries.
spore1 ( Date: 15-Sep-2014 20:09) Posted:
| Don't listen too much with analyst report.Think they must b happy collecting at such a low price .later they might paint a recovery story |
|
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
After the price has gone down so much, they come up with such a report and a very, very belated downgrade. It would have been much much more credible if the report had come out some way before the 2Q14 results. Why didn' t they see RWS as a mature market then?
WinningStock ( Date: 15-Sep-2014 14:19) Posted:
Txs for putting-up this report. Investor should be aware, at least of the basic facts surrounding Genting before they put their hard-earned money into it.
Msport ( Date: 15-Sep-2014 14:07) Posted:
Genting Singapore
Hope can hurt
De-rating should continue Downgrading to Underperform
We believe investors are clinging onto GENS in hope. Hope of it somehow
navigating through a mature SG gaming market and improve its returns. Hope of
it investing all its cash into a lucrative overseas project and create value.
We think the stage is set for disappointment. We think the SG gaming market
cannot grow and GENS will be pushed into extending more credit to VIP players
to protect market share, leading to more bad debts and deterioration of returns.
Also, overseas expansion will remain in question as legislations are pushed out.
In addition, consensus is too bullish (profit estimates 11-19% above ours) and
valuations are too expensive (23x P/E, 2x P/B, 9x EV /EBITDA). We thus think
that the downgrade cycle will continue. We downgrade GENS to Underperform
with a target price of S$1.00 as we transfer coverage to Somesh Agarwal.
Hope 1: Navigate through mature SG market and grow
No scope for SG gaming market to grow: SG GGR has been stuck at
~US$6bn since 2011. We see risk to downside as after 3 big years, tourist
arrival in SG have started to decline (-3% YTD) and most importantly Chinese
visitors who form > 50% of SG VIP volume have fallen by -29% YTD. A strong
SGD and new casinos in Asia are eating into the SG gaming pie further.
GENS is sacrificing returns to protect market share: GENS has already
lost ground to MBS in &ldquo mass market&rdquo (40:60 now). It is thus pushing for &ldquo VIP
volume growth&rdquo by extending more credit (AR up 81% in 3 years) leading to
high bad debt expenses (20% of AR and 11% of VIP GGR now). This is
shaving off 7-8% of its EBITDA margins while ROEs have halved in 3 years.
Hope 2: Use the cash to expand overseas and create value
GENS is armed with a net cash position of S$1.2bn plus perpetual securities of
S$2.3bn to make a large overseas expansion.
Korea Jeju Island project &ndash not that accretive: The US$2.2bn JV has run
into delays due to reviews by the new governor. Even if all falls into place for
GENS, we see only 3% upside to valuations. We think the existing
competition (16 casinos in Korea, 8 in Jeju) and the &lsquo foreigners-only&rsquo limitation
on gambling in Korea will limit value upside from this project.
Japan venture &ndash too far and uncertain: While approval of the venture is in
initial stages (first bill to be discussed in 4Q14) and earliest operations would
be only by 2020, there are enough bidders in the fray to make it a low
probability outcome for GENS (LVS, WYNN, MPEL, MGM etc) in our view. If
all fall into place for GENS, there is an upside of S$0.14-0.22 to valuations.
Valuations &ndash Up in the wind on hope
Profit CAGR of only 4% over 2013-16E: Consensus is building strong 11%
growth. The new &lsquo Jurong lake hotel&rsquo adds 3% to our 2016E profit estimates.
Deserves a &lsquo low growth and mature market&rsquo multiple rather than Macau:
Given the mature state of its domestic business, we believe GENS should
trade in line with mature market casinos like GENM, Kangwon land and Echo
which are at 6-8x 2015E EV / EBITDA vs GENS at 9x. On P/E (23x with 4%
EPS CAGR) and P/B (1.8x with 8% ROE), GENS looks expensive in our view.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
No lah, they' re just having a lot of fun lah cos SGX can' d do anything what.
stockmarketmind ( Date: 15-Sep-2014 10:12) Posted:
Genting having a major selldown now!!
stockmarketmind ( Date: 14-Sep-2014 12:24) Posted:
|
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
From I have seen, it' s declared the same day. This is price sensitive information and to be transparent has to be declosed in a timely manner.
Kyoto2008 ( Date: 12-Sep-2014 22:26) Posted:
May not be so. The last recorded buyback on SGX was 2nd Sep, they could have done another buyback. Probably there' s leeway to declare within certain time, it cannot be immediate declaration that' s too draconian even for SG standards.
Qanghoo ( Date: 12-Sep-2014 19:47) Posted:
The last share buyback was on 2 Sep 14. Doubt if they will continue buying, bearing in mind also that another 25 mil shares means $25 mil+.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
Australia also resource-rich.
wangerism ( Date: 12-Sep-2014 15:01) Posted:
Australia got nothing but land! we have nothing but $$$! hahaha
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
x 0
x 0
|
Not only that. Anyone recall how the arrogant management had reacted angrily to shareholders' feedback abt the paltry dividend sometime ago? So, why bother with GS?
daffytlh ( Date: 12-Sep-2014 15:03) Posted:
peanuts. 2012-2014 only pay 1 ct per share per year
seanpent ( Date: 12-Sep-2014 14:57) Posted:
hehe ..... they need to be reminded hor ?
usually what' s the dividend like ?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Good Post
Bad Post
|
|
|
|
About Qanghoo
Go to Message
