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Kyoto2008 Elite	16-Sep-2014 10:25        Kyoto2008 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I think you are splitting hairs. The fact is the five year sales figures for Genting has been declining.      We are trying to attribute that to falling tourist arrivals, but even if tourists come they may not go to gamble. Go through the Genting financials and come back to try reconciling with Macquarie report, instead of suspecting they purposely target Genting so as to buy in cheaper. justice      ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 10:18) Posted: justice      ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 08:02) Posted: In your article, the decrease in the number of tourist arrivals is not to to a slowdown in economic growth /New tourism laws in China, implemented in October last year, which clamp down on " zero-dollar tours" that hit tourists with surprise fees have contributed to falling tourist volumes from China./ Besides, you have omitted the makeup of the decrease in the number of tourist arrivals. /The STB report also highlighted that the decline in Chinese visitor arrivals came largely from the segment of Chinese travellers that came to stay one day or less. The number of Chinese visitors that stayed for a day or less fell 52 per cent to 401,000, although those staying two days or more rose by 21 per cent to 406,000 in H1 2014. This lifted the average length of stay by Chinese visitors from 2.7 days in H1 2013 to 4.2 days in H1 2014./
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Kyoto2008 Elite	16-Sep-2014 10:21        Kyoto2008 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	It depends on the case.  In Genting SG, I recently  went through the financials myself, hence I am able to agree with all the points made by the analyst (I did so as I was thinking whether I should keep some in my portfolio but decided not to). Talk about analysts, there are some bad reports, eg in the case of Ezion, I believe the analyst was mistaken and quite biased.      Macquarie was one of those who came back with arguments that are sound on why the report is biased.  So I have respect for thieir analyst reports. Similarly for United Engineers, my assessment of the analyst making the comment that the takeover price is 20 percent lower than NAV as a bad judgement.    Thereafter, I discount all CIMB reports as mistaken, and look carefully at what they post, every single line since I suspect they do not have much quality control in reporting.      justice      ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 08:14) Posted: Price falls when the supply is more than the demand and this is true in all cases and not just in Gentings' case. However, there are a large number of factors that may be in play, including shares changing hands, and I do not think any one of us here can precisely pinpoint the factor. I am not saying that fund houses are buying but I do not think that it is illogical to think so. Your are a veteran in this forum and you should know that analyst reports very often are designed  to serve their own purposes. Kyoto2008      ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 00:47) Posted: In Genting' s case, price is dipping because more people wants to sell than those buying. We can' t assume that fund houses are buying in this kind of scenario, think it' s not logical thinking. The analyst report just serves to confirm the reasons why there are more sellers than buyers. It' s not bb, fund houses or analysts causing the price to fall, just examine the facts.
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justice Member	16-Sep-2014 10:18        justice About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	justice      ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 08:02) Posted: In your article, the decrease in the number of tourist arrivals is not to to a slowdown in economic growth /New tourism laws in China, implemented in October last year, which clamp down on " zero-dollar tours" that hit tourists with surprise fees have contributed to falling tourist volumes from China./ Besides, you have omitted the makeup of the decrease in the number of tourist arrivals. /The STB report also highlighted that the decline in Chinese visitor arrivals came largely from the segment of Chinese travellers that came to stay one day or less. The number of Chinese visitors that stayed for a day or less fell 52 per cent to 401,000, although those staying two days or more rose by 21 per cent to 406,000 in H1 2014. This lifted the average length of stay by Chinese visitors from 2.7 days in H1 2013 to 4.2 days in H1 2014./ Kyoto2008      ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 00:25) Posted: Google is a very useful tool: http://news.asiaone.com/news/singapore/visitor-arrivals-spore-slip-28-cent-h1 Regarding credit tightening in China, it' s been going on since 2013, it' s pasted all over Google.      Don know where to begin coz it' s a long story.
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justice Member	16-Sep-2014 10:15        justice About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	When did I say credit is now being tightened? The following is what you posted. /Regarding credit tightening in China, it' s been going on since 2013/ In English, (has been going) is known as the present perfect continuous tense. The use of this tense means that it is still going on. Kyoto2008      ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 10:07) Posted: Do read the articles you posted  carefully. Credit tightening in China came about in 2012 and 2013 when there was anticipation that China will undergo a bubble bursting due to ballooning credit (sponsored by Chinese govt since Lehman crisis to spur economic growth).  China tightened too much and this leads to the cracks showing.      Too much to write about on this subject such as shadow banking, SOE loans, etc, so it' s better you read up on the whole episode on your own.      See my post again: " esply in China where growth is slowing down and cracks are starting to show when credit is tightened."       When did I say credit is now being tightened? China is now caught with a huge credit bubble (both property and biz), hence to loosen credit broadly is highly risky.        The govt do not use interest rates alone, but reserve requirements to rein in or loosen credit.      Also the loosening is very much targeted and selective and not broad measures, eg they now allow provincial states to issue bonds to fund infrastructure projects as banks (and shadow banks) are reluctant to lend given the default scenario.    See the shadow banking and bond defaults now coming to the fray, these are the cracks mentioned.    Everytime a bond default is reported, share prices dive.            Anyway, China issue is a very massive subject that cannot be covered in a few paragraphs. The fact is that mainland Chinese are affected by the uncertainty, some loss of jobs.      If China was going ahead with hitting high economic targets like in the good old days, Genting SG could benefit.        Now China is not looking good. That is the point.   justice      ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 06:40) Posted: China is not tightening credit. It is pasted all over  Goggle.   I think you may have made a mistake. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-10/china-loosens-monetary-conditions-in-test-of-credit-power.html http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/868243.shtml http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-06/30/c_133449794.htm http://www.china.org.cn/business/2014-07/01/content_32824837.htm http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-08-19/news/52983231_1_property-market-monetary-policy-interest-rates
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Kyoto2008 Elite	16-Sep-2014 10:07        Kyoto2008 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Do read the articles you posted  carefully. Credit tightening in China came about in 2012 and 2013 when there was anticipation that China will undergo a bubble bursting due to ballooning credit (sponsored by Chinese govt since Lehman crisis to spur economic growth).  China tightened too much and this leads to the cracks showing.      Too much to write about on this subject such as shadow banking, SOE loans, etc, so it' s better you read up on the whole episode on your own.      See my post again: " esply in China where growth is slowing down and cracks are starting to show when credit is tightened."       When did I say credit is now being tightened? China is now caught with a huge credit bubble (both property and biz), hence to loosen credit broadly is highly risky.        The govt do not use interest rates alone, but reserve requirements to rein in or loosen credit.      Also the loosening is very much targeted and selective and not broad measures, eg they now allow provincial states to issue bonds to fund infrastructure projects as banks (and shadow banks) are reluctant to lend given the default scenario.    See the shadow banking and bond defaults now coming to the fray, these are the cracks mentioned.    Everytime a bond default is reported, share prices dive.            Anyway, China issue is a very massive subject that cannot be covered in a few paragraphs. The fact is that mainland Chinese are affected by the uncertainty, some loss of jobs.      If China was going ahead with hitting high economic targets like in the good old days, Genting SG could benefit.        Now China is not looking good. That is the point.   justice      ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 06:40) Posted: China is not tightening credit. It is pasted all over  Goggle.   I think you may have made a mistake. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-10/china-loosens-monetary-conditions-in-test-of-credit-power.html http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/868243.shtml http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-06/30/c_133449794.htm http://www.china.org.cn/business/2014-07/01/content_32824837.htm http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-08-19/news/52983231_1_property-market-monetary-policy-interest-rates Kyoto2008      ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 00:25) Posted: Google is a very useful tool: http://news.asiaone.com/news/singapore/visitor-arrivals-spore-slip-28-cent-h1 Regarding credit tightening in China, it' s been going on since 2013, it' s pasted all over Google.      Don know where to begin coz it' s a long story.
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ShareMaximo Member	16-Sep-2014 09:51        ShareMaximo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	It is a very badly managed company as a whole, facing competition beyond the M' sia shores is not what it is good at ,especially against someone like MBS who is war hardened in a place like Las Vegas. It is very likely that they will continue to pay nothing in dividends or at most 1 cent when under pressure, but paying the bunch of management team huge salary and bonuses for screwing the shareholders is a given. For those, who had bought into the shares....good luck! And for those, who have not bought any, stay away from it like a plague!
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i_love_girls Veteran	16-Sep-2014 09:26        i_love_girls About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Please drop to less one dollar leh! Btw, the NAV is only 60 cents plus.
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bishan22 Supreme	16-Sep-2014 09:08        bishan22 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Burning continues.......
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seanpent Supreme	16-Sep-2014 09:07        seanpent About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	from 1.51 to 1.11 ..... 40cts lower ..... :) seanpent      ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 09:05) Posted: current year high 1.51 ... a whopping 26% correction ... probably a condusive time to surprise the short positions kuah ? i_love_girls      ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 08:54) Posted: Listen to the analyst is useless. Use your own judgement! Last time they said Thai bev is bad! But now I make tons of money from it haha
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seanpent Supreme	16-Sep-2014 09:05        seanpent About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	current year high 1.51 ... a whopping 26% correction ... probably a condusive time to surprise the short positions kuah ? i_love_girls      ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 08:54) Posted: Listen to the analyst is useless. Use your own judgement! Last time they said Thai bev is bad! But now I make tons of money from it haha
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KiLrOy Elite	16-Sep-2014 09:05        KiLrOy About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood: Yells: "I buy only what I can see."
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	No volatility, no opportunity. No Opportunity, no profit. :) Sees it as a positive opportunity.
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i_love_girls Veteran	16-Sep-2014 08:54        i_love_girls About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Listen to the analyst is useless. Use your own judgement! Last time they said Thai bev is bad! But now I make tons of money from it haha
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seanpent Supreme	16-Sep-2014 08:34        seanpent About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	technically, rebounding anytime soon bah ? when analysts value share price higher, it  probably didn' t reach that  recommended price  ... when analysts value share price lower, it probably didn' t reach that  recommended price  too ... how choon  are they  ?
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isaacsgx Elite	16-Sep-2014 08:25        isaacsgx About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Couldnt agree with you more! Look at the short selling of 5,000 lots on a daily basis!   justice      ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 08:14) Posted: Price falls when the supply is more than the demand and this is true in all cases and not just in Gentings' case. However, there are a large number of factors that may be in play, including shares changing hands, and I do not think any one of us here can precisely pinpoint the factor. I am not saying that fund houses are buying but I do not think that it is illogical to think so. Your are a veteran in this forum and you should know that analyst reports very often are designed  to serve their own purposes. Kyoto2008      ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 00:47) Posted: In Genting' s case, price is dipping because more people wants to sell than those buying. We can' t assume that fund houses are buying in this kind of scenario, think it' s not logical thinking. The analyst report just serves to confirm the reasons why there are more sellers than buyers. It' s not bb, fund houses or analysts causing the price to fall, just examine the facts.
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Qanghoo Supreme	16-Sep-2014 08:23        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thx for making the pt abt Chinese tourists.  This, to me, epitomises the concern abt analysts recommendations - their use of seemingly convincing supporting facts to back their recommendations which in a lot of cases people in the street just take for granted as gospel truth when in actual fact they are flawed.  And I' m not concerned only abt this particular report.  Haven' t we seen too much of this already.  That is why there has to be some proper supervision over this industry. justice      ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 08:14) Posted: Price falls when the supply is more than the demand and this is true in all cases and not just in Gentings' case. However, there are a large number of factors that may be in play, including shares changing hands, and I do not think any one of us here can precisely pinpoint the factor. I am not saying that fund houses are buying but I do not think that it is illogical to think so. Your are a veteran in this forum and you should know that analyst reports very often are designed  to serve their own purposes. Kyoto2008      ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 00:47) Posted: In Genting' s case, price is dipping because more people wants to sell than those buying. We can' t assume that fund houses are buying in this kind of scenario, think it' s not logical thinking. The analyst report just serves to confirm the reasons why there are more sellers than buyers. It' s not bb, fund houses or analysts causing the price to fall, just examine the facts.
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justice Member	16-Sep-2014 08:14        justice About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Price falls when the supply is more than the demand and this is true in all cases and not just in Gentings' case. However, there are a large number of factors that may be in play, including shares changing hands, and I do not think any one of us here can precisely pinpoint the factor. I am not saying that fund houses are buying but I do not think that it is illogical to think so. Your are a veteran in this forum and you should know that analyst reports very often are designed  to serve their own purposes. Kyoto2008      ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 00:47) Posted: In Genting' s case, price is dipping because more people wants to sell than those buying. We can' t assume that fund houses are buying in this kind of scenario, think it' s not logical thinking. The analyst report just serves to confirm the reasons why there are more sellers than buyers. It' s not bb, fund houses or analysts causing the price to fall, just examine the facts.
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justice Member	16-Sep-2014 08:02        justice About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	In your article, the decrease in the number of tourist arrivals is not to to a slowdown in economic growth /New tourism laws in China, implemented in October last year, which clamp down on " zero-dollar tours" that hit tourists with surprise fees have contributed to falling tourist volumes from China./ Besides, you have omitted the makeup of the decrease in the number of tourist arrivals. /The STB report also highlighted that the decline in Chinese visitor arrivals came largely from the segment of Chinese travellers that came to stay one day or less. The number of Chinese visitors that stayed for a day or less fell 52 per cent to 401,000, although those staying two days or more rose by 21 per cent to 406,000 in H1 2014. This lifted the average length of stay by Chinese visitors from 2.7 days in H1 2013 to 4.2 days in H1 2014./ Kyoto2008      ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 00:25) Posted: Google is a very useful tool: http://news.asiaone.com/news/singapore/visitor-arrivals-spore-slip-28-cent-h1 Regarding credit tightening in China, it' s been going on since 2013, it' s pasted all over Google.      Don know where to begin coz it' s a long story.   justice      ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 00:05) Posted: Can you provide statistics to show a decrease in the number of tourists arrivals in Singapore? Is the Chinese government going to tighten or loosen credit? Thanks
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justice Member	16-Sep-2014 06:40        justice About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	China is not tightening credit. It is pasted all over  Goggle.   I think you may have made a mistake. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-10/china-loosens-monetary-conditions-in-test-of-credit-power.html http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/868243.shtml http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-06/30/c_133449794.htm http://www.china.org.cn/business/2014-07/01/content_32824837.htm http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-08-19/news/52983231_1_property-market-monetary-policy-interest-rates Kyoto2008      ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 00:25) Posted: Google is a very useful tool: http://news.asiaone.com/news/singapore/visitor-arrivals-spore-slip-28-cent-h1 Regarding credit tightening in China, it' s been going on since 2013, it' s pasted all over Google.      Don know where to begin coz it' s a long story.   justice      ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 00:05) Posted: Can you provide statistics to show a decrease in the number of tourists arrivals in Singapore? Is the Chinese government going to tighten or loosen credit? Thanks
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Kyoto2008 Elite	16-Sep-2014 00:47        Kyoto2008 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	In Genting' s case, price is dipping because more people wants to sell than those buying. We can' t assume that fund houses are buying in this kind of scenario, think it' s not logical thinking. The analyst report just serves to confirm the reasons why there are more sellers than buyers. It' s not bb, fund houses or analysts causing the price to fall, just examine the facts.
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Kyoto2008 Elite	16-Sep-2014 00:25        Kyoto2008 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Google is a very useful tool: http://news.asiaone.com/news/singapore/visitor-arrivals-spore-slip-28-cent-h1 Regarding credit tightening in China, it' s been going on since 2013, it' s pasted all over Google.      Don know where to begin coz it' s a long story.   justice      ( Date: 16-Sep-2014 00:05) Posted: Can you provide statistics to show a decrease in the number of tourists arrivals in Singapore? Is the Chinese government going to tighten or loosen credit? Thanks Kyoto2008      ( Date: 15-Sep-2014 20:29) Posted: Yeah, a little late to come up with such a report.    The main advantage of this report even though late, is that it is a lot  more realistic than many  of the other analysts who choose to ignore Genting Sg' s woes. I think this report is extremely informative and insightful, it explains the high bad debts incurred  for the past years and this latest quarter mainly due to desperate attempts to market to VIP accounts so as to keep the sales up. If you look at the five year sales revenue record, you would realise it' s flat to declining and this  is  also an indication that it  is already having difficulty to grow it' s biz.        Thus it gels in well with the analyst' s comment that the gaming industry in SG is at mature phase.      Tourist arrivals in SG are also affected by the economic situation, esply in China where growth is slowing down and cracks are starting to show when credit is tightened. And as mentioned, the labor and land costs (plus high SGD) in SG make it very difficult for biz requiring large space and manpower to carry on.  Sentosa itself was incurring large losses year after year until the casinos came and took over it' s place. I also have a high suspicion mgt is not top notch, why build a hotel in Jurong?  Throwing good money to chase after bad.
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