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justice Member	16-Sep-2014 00:05        justice About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Can you provide statistics to show a decrease in the number of tourists arrivals in Singapore? Is the Chinese government going to tighten or loosen credit? Thanks Kyoto2008      ( Date: 15-Sep-2014 20:29) Posted: Yeah, a little late to come up with such a report.    The main advantage of this report even though late, is that it is a lot  more realistic than many  of the other analysts who choose to ignore Genting Sg' s woes. I think this report is extremely informative and insightful, it explains the high bad debts incurred  for the past years and this latest quarter mainly due to desperate attempts to market to VIP accounts so as to keep the sales up. If you look at the five year sales revenue record, you would realise it' s flat to declining and this  is  also an indication that it  is already having difficulty to grow it' s biz.        Thus it gels in well with the analyst' s comment that the gaming industry in SG is at mature phase.      Tourist arrivals in SG are also affected by the economic situation, esply in China where growth is slowing down and cracks are starting to show when credit is tightened. And as mentioned, the labor and land costs (plus high SGD) in SG make it very difficult for biz requiring large space and manpower to carry on.  Sentosa itself was incurring large losses year after year until the casinos came and took over it' s place. I also have a high suspicion mgt is not top notch, why build a hotel in Jurong?  Throwing good money to chase after bad.   Qanghoo      ( Date: 15-Sep-2014 19:30) Posted: After the price has gone down so much, they come up with such a report and a very, very belated downgrade.  It would have been much much more credible if the report had come out some way before the 2Q14 results.  Why didn' t they see RWS as a mature market then?
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justice Member	15-Sep-2014 23:54        justice About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I could not agree more with you guys.
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Qanghoo Supreme	15-Sep-2014 22:50        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The report below may be from an org with a vested interest interest to influence the price either way.  I take issue with the fact that the report is issued so late, almost one mth after GS' latest result.  Nothing more than rubbing salt into a deep wound. qwerty91      ( Date: 15-Sep-2014 21:57) Posted: when trading volume is so so high, someone could be collecting them. Do not trust analyst. They could be just telling people to sell so that they could collect. Genting is here to stay, so worries. spore1      ( Date: 15-Sep-2014 20:09) Posted: Don't listen too much with analyst report.Think they must b happy collecting at such a low price .later they might paint a recovery story
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qwerty91 Member	15-Sep-2014 21:57        qwerty91 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	when trading volume is so so high, someone could be collecting them. Do not trust analyst. They could be just telling people to sell so that they could collect. Genting is here to stay, so worries. spore1      ( Date: 15-Sep-2014 20:09) Posted: Don't listen too much with analyst report.Think they must b happy collecting at such a low price .later they might paint a recovery story
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Kyoto2008 Elite	15-Sep-2014 20:29        Kyoto2008 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yeah, a little late to come up with such a report.    The main advantage of this report even though late, is that it is a lot  more realistic than many  of the other analysts who choose to ignore Genting Sg' s woes. I think this report is extremely informative and insightful, it explains the high bad debts incurred  for the past years and this latest quarter mainly due to desperate attempts to market to VIP accounts so as to keep the sales up. If you look at the five year sales revenue record, you would realise it' s flat to declining and this  is  also an indication that it  is already having difficulty to grow it' s biz.        Thus it gels in well with the analyst' s comment that the gaming industry in SG is at mature phase.      Tourist arrivals in SG are also affected by the economic situation, esply in China where growth is slowing down and cracks are starting to show when credit is tightened. And as mentioned, the labor and land costs (plus high SGD) in SG make it very difficult for biz requiring large space and manpower to carry on.  Sentosa itself was incurring large losses year after year until the casinos came and took over it' s place. I also have a high suspicion mgt is not top notch, why build a hotel in Jurong?  Throwing good money to chase after bad.   Qanghoo      ( Date: 15-Sep-2014 19:30) Posted: After the price has gone down so much, they come up with such a report and a very, very belated downgrade.  It would have been much much more credible if the report had come out some way before the 2Q14 results.  Why didn' t they see RWS as a mature market then? WinningStock      ( Date: 15-Sep-2014 14:19) Posted: Txs for putting-up this report. Investor should be aware, at least of the basic facts surrounding Genting before they put their hard-earned money into it.
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spore1 Supreme	15-Sep-2014 20:09        spore1 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Don't listen too much with analyst report.Think they must b happy collecting at such a low price .later they might paint a recovery story
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Qanghoo Supreme	15-Sep-2014 19:30        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	After the price has gone down so much, they come up with such a report and a very, very belated downgrade.  It would have been much much more credible if the report had come out some way before the 2Q14 results.  Why didn' t they see RWS as a mature market then? WinningStock      ( Date: 15-Sep-2014 14:19) Posted: Txs for putting-up this report. Investor should be aware, at least of the basic facts surrounding Genting before they put their hard-earned money into it. Msport      ( Date: 15-Sep-2014 14:07) Posted: Genting Singapore Hope can hurt De-rating should continue Downgrading to Underperform We believe investors are clinging onto GENS in hope. Hope of it somehow navigating through a mature SG gaming market and improve its returns. Hope of it investing all its cash into a lucrative overseas project and create value. We think the stage is set for disappointment. We think the SG gaming market cannot grow and GENS will be pushed into extending more credit to VIP players to protect market share, leading to more bad debts and deterioration of returns. Also, overseas expansion will remain in question as legislations are pushed out. In addition, consensus is too bullish (profit estimates 11-19% above ours) and valuations are too expensive (23x P/E, 2x P/B, 9x EV /EBITDA). We thus think that the downgrade cycle will continue. We downgrade GENS to Underperform with a target price of S$1.00 as we transfer coverage to Somesh Agarwal. Hope 1: Navigate through mature SG market and grow  No scope for SG gaming market to grow: SG GGR has been stuck at ~US$6bn since 2011. We see risk to downside as after 3 big years, tourist arrival in SG have started to decline (-3% YTD) and most importantly Chinese visitors who form > 50% of SG VIP volume have fallen by -29% YTD. A strong SGD and new casinos in Asia are eating into the SG gaming pie further.  GENS is sacrificing returns to protect market share: GENS has already lost ground to MBS in &ldquo mass market&rdquo (40:60 now). It is thus pushing for &ldquo VIP volume growth&rdquo by extending more credit (AR up 81% in 3 years) leading to high bad debt expenses (20% of AR and 11% of VIP GGR now). This is shaving off 7-8% of its EBITDA margins while ROEs have halved in 3 years. Hope 2: Use the cash to expand overseas and create value GENS is armed with a net cash position of S$1.2bn plus perpetual securities of S$2.3bn to make a large overseas expansion.  Korea Jeju Island project &ndash not that accretive: The US$2.2bn JV has run into delays due to reviews by the new governor. Even if all falls into place for GENS, we see only 3% upside to valuations. We think the existing competition (16 casinos in Korea, 8 in Jeju) and the &lsquo foreigners-only&rsquo limitation on gambling in Korea will limit value upside from this project.  Japan venture &ndash too far and uncertain: While approval of the venture is in initial stages (first bill to be discussed in 4Q14) and earliest operations would be only by 2020, there are enough bidders in the fray to make it a low probability outcome for GENS (LVS, WYNN, MPEL, MGM etc) in our view. If all fall into place for GENS, there is an upside of S$0.14-0.22 to valuations. Valuations &ndash Up in the wind on hope  Profit CAGR of only 4% over 2013-16E: Consensus is building strong 11% growth. The new &lsquo Jurong lake hotel&rsquo adds 3% to our 2016E profit estimates.  Deserves a &lsquo low growth and mature market&rsquo multiple rather than Macau: Given the mature state of its domestic business, we believe GENS should trade in line with mature market casinos like GENM, Kangwon land and Echo which are at 6-8x 2015E EV / EBITDA vs GENS at 9x. On P/E (23x with 4% EPS CAGR) and P/B (1.8x with 8% ROE), GENS looks expensive in our view.
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qwerty91 Member	15-Sep-2014 19:20        qwerty91 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I will still hold genting as it is still a STI stock. That is my only reason, lets see again in December.
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WinningStock Senior	15-Sep-2014 14:19        WinningStock About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Txs for putting-up this report. Investor should be aware, at least of the basic facts surrounding Genting before they put their hard-earned money into it. Msport      ( Date: 15-Sep-2014 14:07) Posted: Genting Singapore Hope can hurt De-rating should continue Downgrading to Underperform We believe investors are clinging onto GENS in hope. Hope of it somehow navigating through a mature SG gaming market and improve its returns. Hope of it investing all its cash into a lucrative overseas project and create value. We think the stage is set for disappointment. We think the SG gaming market cannot grow and GENS will be pushed into extending more credit to VIP players to protect market share, leading to more bad debts and deterioration of returns. Also, overseas expansion will remain in question as legislations are pushed out. In addition, consensus is too bullish (profit estimates 11-19% above ours) and valuations are too expensive (23x P/E, 2x P/B, 9x EV /EBITDA). We thus think that the downgrade cycle will continue. We downgrade GENS to Underperform with a target price of S$1.00 as we transfer coverage to Somesh Agarwal. Hope 1: Navigate through mature SG market and grow  No scope for SG gaming market to grow: SG GGR has been stuck at ~US$6bn since 2011. We see risk to downside as after 3 big years, tourist arrival in SG have started to decline (-3% YTD) and most importantly Chinese visitors who form > 50% of SG VIP volume have fallen by -29% YTD. A strong SGD and new casinos in Asia are eating into the SG gaming pie further.  GENS is sacrificing returns to protect market share: GENS has already lost ground to MBS in &ldquo mass market&rdquo (40:60 now). It is thus pushing for &ldquo VIP volume growth&rdquo by extending more credit (AR up 81% in 3 years) leading to high bad debt expenses (20% of AR and 11% of VIP GGR now). This is shaving off 7-8% of its EBITDA margins while ROEs have halved in 3 years. Hope 2: Use the cash to expand overseas and create value GENS is armed with a net cash position of S$1.2bn plus perpetual securities of S$2.3bn to make a large overseas expansion.  Korea Jeju Island project &ndash not that accretive: The US$2.2bn JV has run into delays due to reviews by the new governor. Even if all falls into place for GENS, we see only 3% upside to valuations. We think the existing competition (16 casinos in Korea, 8 in Jeju) and the &lsquo foreigners-only&rsquo limitation on gambling in Korea will limit value upside from this project.  Japan venture &ndash too far and uncertain: While approval of the venture is in initial stages (first bill to be discussed in 4Q14) and earliest operations would be only by 2020, there are enough bidders in the fray to make it a low probability outcome for GENS (LVS, WYNN, MPEL, MGM etc) in our view. If all fall into place for GENS, there is an upside of S$0.14-0.22 to valuations. Valuations &ndash Up in the wind on hope  Profit CAGR of only 4% over 2013-16E: Consensus is building strong 11% growth. The new &lsquo Jurong lake hotel&rsquo adds 3% to our 2016E profit estimates.  Deserves a &lsquo low growth and mature market&rsquo multiple rather than Macau: Given the mature state of its domestic business, we believe GENS should trade in line with mature market casinos like GENM, Kangwon land and Echo which are at 6-8x 2015E EV / EBITDA vs GENS at 9x. On P/E (23x with 4% EPS CAGR) and P/B (1.8x with 8% ROE), GENS looks expensive in our view.
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Msport Elite	15-Sep-2014 14:07        Msport About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Genting Singapore Hope can hurt De-rating should continue Downgrading to Underperform We believe investors are clinging onto GENS in hope. Hope of it somehow navigating through a mature SG gaming market and improve its returns. Hope of it investing all its cash into a lucrative overseas project and create value. We think the stage is set for disappointment. We think the SG gaming market cannot grow and GENS will be pushed into extending more credit to VIP players to protect market share, leading to more bad debts and deterioration of returns. Also, overseas expansion will remain in question as legislations are pushed out. In addition, consensus is too bullish (profit estimates 11-19% above ours) and valuations are too expensive (23x P/E, 2x P/B, 9x EV /EBITDA). We thus think that the downgrade cycle will continue. We downgrade GENS to Underperform with a target price of S$1.00 as we transfer coverage to Somesh Agarwal. Hope 1: Navigate through mature SG market and grow  No scope for SG gaming market to grow: SG GGR has been stuck at ~US$6bn since 2011. We see risk to downside as after 3 big years, tourist arrival in SG have started to decline (-3% YTD) and most importantly Chinese visitors who form > 50% of SG VIP volume have fallen by -29% YTD. A strong SGD and new casinos in Asia are eating into the SG gaming pie further.  GENS is sacrificing returns to protect market share: GENS has already lost ground to MBS in &ldquo mass market&rdquo (40:60 now). It is thus pushing for &ldquo VIP volume growth&rdquo by extending more credit (AR up 81% in 3 years) leading to high bad debt expenses (20% of AR and 11% of VIP GGR now). This is shaving off 7-8% of its EBITDA margins while ROEs have halved in 3 years. Hope 2: Use the cash to expand overseas and create value GENS is armed with a net cash position of S$1.2bn plus perpetual securities of S$2.3bn to make a large overseas expansion.  Korea Jeju Island project &ndash not that accretive: The US$2.2bn JV has run into delays due to reviews by the new governor. Even if all falls into place for GENS, we see only 3% upside to valuations. We think the existing competition (16 casinos in Korea, 8 in Jeju) and the &lsquo foreigners-only&rsquo limitation on gambling in Korea will limit value upside from this project.  Japan venture &ndash too far and uncertain: While approval of the venture is in initial stages (first bill to be discussed in 4Q14) and earliest operations would be only by 2020, there are enough bidders in the fray to make it a low probability outcome for GENS (LVS, WYNN, MPEL, MGM etc) in our view. If all fall into place for GENS, there is an upside of S$0.14-0.22 to valuations. Valuations &ndash Up in the wind on hope  Profit CAGR of only 4% over 2013-16E: Consensus is building strong 11% growth. The new &lsquo Jurong lake hotel&rsquo adds 3% to our 2016E profit estimates.  Deserves a &lsquo low growth and mature market&rsquo multiple rather than Macau: Given the mature state of its domestic business, we believe GENS should trade in line with mature market casinos like GENM, Kangwon land and Echo which are at 6-8x 2015E EV / EBITDA vs GENS at 9x. On P/E (23x with 4% EPS CAGR) and P/B (1.8x with 8% ROE), GENS looks expensive in our view.
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WinningStock Senior	15-Sep-2014 14:03        WinningStock About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Today Macquarie Research heavily DOWN-Graded Genting to SELL with fair value of $1.00.If those can get hold of the report of 26 pages, please read their analysis on Genting.Very informative facts.The TA and indicators do not look good.
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Qanghoo Supreme	15-Sep-2014 10:18        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	No lah, they' re just having a lot of fun lah cos SGX can' d do anything what. stockmarketmind      ( Date: 15-Sep-2014 10:12) Posted: Genting having a major selldown now!!   stockmarketmind      ( Date: 14-Sep-2014 12:24) Posted: Sellers were too strong in Genting. They kept pushing prices down. http://www.facebook.com/groups/350636774966182/
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i_love_girls Veteran	15-Sep-2014 10:16        i_love_girls About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Drop further please and it will be more sexier
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stockmarketmind Elite	15-Sep-2014 10:12        stockmarketmind About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "stockmarketmindgames"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Genting having a major selldown now!!   stockmarketmind      ( Date: 14-Sep-2014 12:24) Posted: Sellers were too strong in Genting. They kept pushing prices down. http://www.facebook.com/groups/350636774966182/
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seanpent Supreme	15-Sep-2014 10:03        seanpent About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	picking up a little at 1.13 ... have to be very careful too ? LOVEYOURSELF      ( Date: 15-Sep-2014 09:46) Posted: be careful......be very careful........
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seanpent Supreme	15-Sep-2014 09:49        seanpent About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	about ? LOVEYOURSELF      ( Date: 15-Sep-2014 09:46) Posted: be careful......be very careful........
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LOVEYOURSELF Member	15-Sep-2014 09:46        LOVEYOURSELF About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Love Yourself and Be Kind To Others"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	be careful......be very careful........
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seanpent Supreme	15-Sep-2014 09:40        seanpent About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	hmm ... looks like  more negative views  about genting ? think genting like to give surprises too hor ?
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justice Member	15-Sep-2014 09:37        justice About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Any fool can make wild guesses. Rest your case? You may as well rest in peace. stevenk      ( Date: 14-Sep-2014 21:52) Posted: Below is my first post posted on 10Aug. I rest my case. Sincerely hope that someone has benefitted from my repeated reminders. Thanks.   stevenk      ( Date: 10-Aug-2014 21:35) Posted: Going down. Testing 1.18.
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biturbo Senior	15-Sep-2014 09:30        biturbo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Can't see the bottom, juicy for bb to short.... Guessed they opened their positions some time ago...
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