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Latest Posts By better
- Elite
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| 21-Oct-2021 22:21 |
Seatrium
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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.
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That depends on whose fault it was. The hull is Equinor' s own design and investigation report last year did not pin point the fault on anyone. Accordingly, Equnior had approved the work at every stages of the hull construction until the error was discovered. According to Equinor, the investigation team did not find any single event which could have been a direct cause for the welding quality issues....... Furthermore, Equinor has not sufficiently complied with its own work processes and procedures for risk management, construction management, and follow-up at the construction site. Even if Equinor' s follow-up team found signs of poor quality at an early stage, the extent and degree of seriousness were not understood. Sufficient measures were therefore not implemented. Finally, Equinor' s follow-up team has not had enough personnel with experience and expertise in welding and welding control and has not utilized the company& rsquo s technical expertise in these areas early enough, the Norwegian company said. Also, SCM had paid its due by rectifying most of the faults for free. The hull needs to be moved now for immediate topsides integration to avoid further delay. Any outstanding hull rectification work can be done at the same yard. On the balance, a positive for Sembmarine.  
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| 21-Oct-2021 21:05 |
Seatrium
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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.
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  Johan Castberg floater moved to Norway as delays mount      Equinor takes incomplete FPSO hull to a Norwegian yard where it will occupy almost the whole workforce for more than a year  
21 October 2021 7:18 GMT  UPDATED    21 October 2021 9:40 GMT
  in        Stavanger 
Equinor will transport the unfinished hull and turret for the Johan Castberg floating production, storage and offloading vessel from Singapore. This should relieve Sembmarine of some manpower constraints. But likely SCM will lose the Wisting FPSO deal. But good riddence generally.  
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| 21-Oct-2021 21:00 |
Seatrium
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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.
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| 21-Oct-2021 17:43 |
Seatrium
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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.
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Keppel down 0.73% today SCI down 0.51% SCM unchanged. | ||||
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| 21-Oct-2021 15:08 |
Seatrium
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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.
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Before you execute your sell all transaction, can consider the following assessment of SCM' s NAV from an independent financial advisor, supported by asset valuation report from Deloitte after factoring worst case scenario H2 losses. Full report can be downloaded from SGX company announcements page. .2.2 Price-to-book (&ldquo P/NAV&rdquo ) ratio P/NAV ratio is a commonly used net asset backing approach which shows the extent to which the shares of a company are backed by its net assets. The NAV based valuation approach provides an estimate of the value of a company assuming the hypothetical sale of all its assets over a reasonable period of time and would be more relevant for asset-based companies or where the subject company intends to realise or convert the uses of all or most of its assets. Such a valuation approach would be particularly appropriate when applied in circumstances where the business is to cease operations or where the profitability of the business being valued is not sufficient to sustain an earnings-based valuation. As shown in Section 6.4.2 of this Letter, the estimated projected NAV per Share as at 31 December 2021 is S$0.1246. Based on the Offer Price of S$0.08 per Share, the P/NAV ratio of the Company is therefore 0.64 times, which implies that the valuation of the Company (implied by the Offer Price) is at a discount of 35.8% to the estimated projected NAV per Share. 8.2.3 P/RNAV ratio To the extent that a company has assets which have significant revaluation surplus arising from a potential valuation of these assets, the RNAV of the shares of the company would have to be considered. As set out in Section 7.1 of this Letter, the Valuer had estimated the Valuation of the Subject Assets as at the Valuation Date to be between approximately S$7.7 billion and S$8.8 billion, which gives rise to a net revaluation surplus of between approximately S$1.4 billion and S$2.5 billion, after taking into consideration the potential tax liabilities assuming a hypothetical sale of the Subject Assets as required under the Code. The Directors and Management have represented and confirmed that the Group has no immediate plans to dispose of its interests in the Subject Assets, and as such, the above tax liabilities are not likely to crystallise. 40 PROVENANCE CAPITAL PTE. LTD. 23 Arising from the net revaluation surplus, the RNAV per Share is significantly higher at approximately between S$0.17 and S$0.20 as set out in Section 7.2 above. Accordingly, the range of P/RNAV ratios of the Group implied by the Offer Price would be significantly lower at between 0.39 and 0.47 times, compared to the P/NAV ratio of 0.64 times as set out in Section 8.2.2 above. The above implies that the Offer Price is at a deep discount of approximately 53% to 61% below the RNAV of the Group as at 31 December 2021. We are of the view that consideration of the current market sentiment on listed securities in similar industry, in particular, the Comparable Companies, is relevant for our purposes in estimating the range of values for the Shares and evaluating the Offer. Taking into consideration the above, overall, on balance, we are of the view that for the purposes of the Offer, our estimated value range of the Shares is between S$0.125 and S$0.14, based on the mean and median P/NAV ratios of the Comparable Companies of 1.1 times, and the estimated projected NAV per Share of S$0.1246 as at 31 December 2021 which takes into consideration the recently completed Rights Issue and the expected losses for 2H2021. Hence, we are of the opinion that the Offer Price of S$0.08 is not fair and not reasonable, as it is below our estimated value range of the Shares.
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| 21-Oct-2021 12:26 |
Seatrium
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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.
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You should sell all and run. The last time you did that, it rocketed.  After you bought back, it tanked. Maybe you could consider selling all. Your sacrifice will save us all. 
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| 20-Oct-2021 14:15 |
Seatrium
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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.
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Thanks starship for your very prompt update! I am immensely touched by your kindness and quick action to warn others about the peril of this counter..
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| 20-Oct-2021 11:53 |
Seatrium
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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.
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Maybe they are just kind enough to warn others with pure and good intentions even though they zero position in scm.......like the ever benevolent starship.
Four legs good, two legs bad.. .
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| 19-Oct-2021 18:44 |
Seatrium
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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.
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Bad news but small matter. The accounting for yard projects is quite different.  3 major projects (Farmosa 2 jackets, Drillship Atlas and Shell Vito Semisub) that SCM is rushing to complete by Dec originally will be delayed by 1-2 months, meaning they cannot recognise a few hundred million dollars worth of revenue by year end 2021. Cost will be incurred to advance the projects but the big chunk of revenue cannot be recognised until Q1 next year. That is the cause of the steep losses expected for H2 2021.  
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| 19-Oct-2021 17:58 |
Seatrium
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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.
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SCM' s share is the currency that Temasek is using to absorb Keppel OM into Sembmarine. The higher SCM share price, the lower number of shares are required for the buyout. Temasek owns 46.6% of Sembmarine and would not accept the dilution if too much new shares need to be issued. Therefore, a merger proposal will not be tabled by Temasek if SCM share price is below 20c. Before the 1st right issue, Temasek owns 30%. After 1st rights issue, they increase their holding to 42.6% After 2nd rights issue, they increase their hoilding further to 46.6% After the Keppel OM buyout (likely later next year), Temasek is likely to own about 50% of sembmarine. For example, Temasek owns 49.9% of Sembcorp,  53% of Olam and 55% of SIA.....  
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| 19-Oct-2021 11:55 |
Seatrium
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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.
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| 19-Oct-2021 00:16 |
Seatrium
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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.
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For chart_expert123 convenience, below in red is the extract from Keppel' s MOU published in July: Concurrent with the MOU on the potential combination, Keppel has also signed a non-binding MOU with Kyanite Investment Holdings Pte Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of Temasek, for Keppel O& M' s legacy rigs and associated receivables to be sold to a separate Asset Co that would be majority owned by external investors. The two proposed transactions will be inter-conditional and pursued concurrently. Further details on Asset Co will be provided in a separate SGXNET announcement issued by Keppel. Keppel and Sembcorp Marine will undertake mutual due diligence and discuss the terms of the potential combination, which is expected to take several months. If the potential combination is completed, it is envisaged that the Combined Entity will be a listed entity, and Sembcorp Marine' s shareholders will hold shares in the Combined Entity, while Keppel will receive shares in the Combined Entity and a cash consideration of up to S$500 million (or a cash component with the economic equivalent effect). Under the MOU between Keppel and Sembcorp Marine, it is envisaged that Keppel and the Combined Entity will enter into a strategic partnership, pursuant to which Keppel will hold 50% of a 50-50 joint venture that will be established between Keppel and the Combined Entity (Strategic Partnership JV). This would allow Keppel to continue accessing Keppel O& M capabilities required for its projects, on terms to be agreed. The scope of the Strategic Partnership JV will be subject to final agreement between the parties concerned. In addition, subject to regulatory review, the Combined Entity will be the preferred EPC partner for Keppel& rsquo s projects where the Combined Entity has the relevant expertise. My comments in green: Keppel has about S$3billion worth of completed or almost completed rigs sitting idle in its yard. Much of its capital tighted up in the legacy rigs and associated receivables. So part of the merger term is for Temasek to work out an arrangement to take the legacy rigs off its book via an Asset Co. Keppel is asking for up to S$500 million cash. Up to $500mil can mean $0 at the end. On Sembmarine' s part, they have strongly denied the existence of any cash consideration. In the above Keppel' s statement, it just said that KC will receive some shares of the CE. My prediction is that Keppel would receive about 15% to 20% of total shares of CE. After SCM absorbs or merges with Keppel OM to create the combined entity (CE), Keppel corp and the CE will create a 50 50 joint venture company to take on any offshore projects initiated by KC.  This is to prevent KC from undetaking any offshore project on its own after they have sold off all their yards and IPs to the CE. For example, if Keppel corp wants to build an offshore data centre, they have to give the CE first consideration for the biz. Any final merger proposal tabled will be subjected to SCM shareholders' approval (ex Temasek as they are an interested party owning 20% of KC). And it is not likely to happen until SCM share price is above 20c for obvious reason. |
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| 19-Oct-2021 00:01 |
Seatrium
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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.
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Go read Keppel' s announcement again, the MOU did not state the terms of the merger at all. On earth, only chart_expert123 knows the merger terms. What the MOU states in July was that after SCM absorbs or merges with Keppel OM to create the combined entity(CE), Keppel corp and the CE will create a 50 50 joint venture company to take on any offshore projects initiated by KC. For example, if Keppel corp wants to build an offshore data centre, they have to give the CE first consideration for the biz.
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| 18-Oct-2021 22:47 |
Seatrium
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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.
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Nobody knows the exact financial term of the merger yet, not even the mgt of KC and SCM.....only chart_expert123 knows exactly what is going to transpire so we should all listen to him.![]() ![]() I rest my case. 
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| 18-Oct-2021 22:13 |
Seatrium
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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.
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So, once and for all (before chartexpert123 starts babbling nonsense again), below is from Keppel OM' s announcement: There are 3 components of the proposed merger: Concurrent with the MOU on the potential combination, Keppel has also signed a non-binding MOU with Kyanite Investment Holdings Pte Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of Temasek, for Keppel O& M& rsquo s legacy rigs and associated receivables to be sold to a separate Asset Co that would be majority owned by external investors. The two proposed transactions will be inter-conditional and pursued concurrently. Further details on Asset Co will be provided in a separate SGXNET announcement issued by Keppel. Keppel has about S$3billion worth of completed or almost completed rigs sitting idle in its yard. Much capital tight up that Keppel can hardly breathe. So part of the merger term is for Temasek to work out an arrangement to take the rigs off their book via an Asset Co. Keppel and Sembcorp Marine will undertake mutual due diligence and discuss the terms of the potential combination, which is expected to take several months. If the potential combination is completed, it is envisaged that the Combined Entity will be a listed entity, and Sembcorp Marine& rsquo s shareholders will hold shares in the Combined Entity, while Keppel will receive shares in the Combined Entity and a cash consideration of up to S$500 million (or a cash component with the economic equivalent effect). Keppel is asking for up to S$500 million cash. Up to $500mil can mean $0 at the end. On Sembmarine' s part, they have strongly denied the existence of a S$500mil. cash consideration. In the above Keppel' s statement, it just said that KC will receive shares. In Chartexpert123' s mind, it is 50%. In my mind, it is 10% to 15% of total SCM shares. Under the MOU between Keppel and Sembcorp Marine, it is envisaged that Keppel and the Combined Entity will enter into a strategic partnership, pursuant to which Keppel will hold 50% of a 50-50 joint venture that will be established between Keppel and the Combined Entity (& ldquo  Strategic Partnership JV& rdquo ). This would allow Keppel to continue accessing Keppel O& M& rsquo s capabilities required for its projects, on terms to be agreed. The scope of the Strategic Partnership JV will be subject to final agreement between the parties concerned. In addition, subject to regulatory review, the Combined Entity will be the preferred EPC partner for Keppel& rsquo s projects where the Combined Entity has the relevant expertise. After SCM absorbed keppel OM,    SCM and KC will both chip in money to form a joint venture company. This is to prevent KC from undetaking any further offshore project on its own after they have sold off all their yards and IPs to SCM. Any final merger proposal tabled will be subjected to SCM shareholders' approval (ex Temasek as they are an interested party owning 20% of KC). And it is not likely to happen until SCM share price is above 20c for obvious reason. |
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| 18-Oct-2021 20:33 |
Seatrium
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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.
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Are you predicting that SCM would pay KC $500mil flat for Keppel OM?
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| 18-Oct-2021 17:03 |
Seatrium
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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.
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ckmpd is not sneaky, just keep forgetting to take his medication...
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| 18-Oct-2021 16:50 |
Seatrium
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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.
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I have got nothing against Starship, even if he is an extreme bear. If you look at all his posts, he only " validates" bearish views. So wouldn' t that make him a bear? If no one notice it, doesn' t it make him a sneaky bear?....being a bear when no one notices it?
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| 18-Oct-2021 16:40 |
Seatrium
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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.
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Tens of thousand of ships would need to go through retrofit/ upgrade to meet ever more stringent emission requirements. SCM is in the global technology leader in the green retrofit of ships, especially cruise ships.
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| 18-Oct-2021 16:38 |
Seatrium
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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.
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Undisputed winner of the sneaky bear award. Starship might be paid very well by the shortist.  
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