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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.
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better
Elite |
21-Oct-2021 15:08
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Before you execute your sell all transaction, can consider the following assessment of SCM' s NAV from an independent financial advisor, supported by asset valuation report from Deloitte after factoring worst case scenario H2 losses. Full report can be downloaded from SGX company announcements page. .2.2 Price-to-book (&ldquo P/NAV&rdquo ) ratio P/NAV ratio is a commonly used net asset backing approach which shows the extent to which the shares of a company are backed by its net assets. The NAV based valuation approach provides an estimate of the value of a company assuming the hypothetical sale of all its assets over a reasonable period of time and would be more relevant for asset-based companies or where the subject company intends to realise or convert the uses of all or most of its assets. Such a valuation approach would be particularly appropriate when applied in circumstances where the business is to cease operations or where the profitability of the business being valued is not sufficient to sustain an earnings-based valuation. As shown in Section 6.4.2 of this Letter, the estimated projected NAV per Share as at 31 December 2021 is S$0.1246. Based on the Offer Price of S$0.08 per Share, the P/NAV ratio of the Company is therefore 0.64 times, which implies that the valuation of the Company (implied by the Offer Price) is at a discount of 35.8% to the estimated projected NAV per Share. 8.2.3 P/RNAV ratio To the extent that a company has assets which have significant revaluation surplus arising from a potential valuation of these assets, the RNAV of the shares of the company would have to be considered. As set out in Section 7.1 of this Letter, the Valuer had estimated the Valuation of the Subject Assets as at the Valuation Date to be between approximately S$7.7 billion and S$8.8 billion, which gives rise to a net revaluation surplus of between approximately S$1.4 billion and S$2.5 billion, after taking into consideration the potential tax liabilities assuming a hypothetical sale of the Subject Assets as required under the Code. The Directors and Management have represented and confirmed that the Group has no immediate plans to dispose of its interests in the Subject Assets, and as such, the above tax liabilities are not likely to crystallise. 40 PROVENANCE CAPITAL PTE. LTD. 23 Arising from the net revaluation surplus, the RNAV per Share is significantly higher at approximately between S$0.17 and S$0.20 as set out in Section 7.2 above. Accordingly, the range of P/RNAV ratios of the Group implied by the Offer Price would be significantly lower at between 0.39 and 0.47 times, compared to the P/NAV ratio of 0.64 times as set out in Section 8.2.2 above. The above implies that the Offer Price is at a deep discount of approximately 53% to 61% below the RNAV of the Group as at 31 December 2021. We are of the view that consideration of the current market sentiment on listed securities in similar industry, in particular, the Comparable Companies, is relevant for our purposes in estimating the range of values for the Shares and evaluating the Offer. Taking into consideration the above, overall, on balance, we are of the view that for the purposes of the Offer, our estimated value range of the Shares is between S$0.125 and S$0.14, based on the mean and median P/NAV ratios of the Comparable Companies of 1.1 times, and the estimated projected NAV per Share of S$0.1246 as at 31 December 2021 which takes into consideration the recently completed Rights Issue and the expected losses for 2H2021. Hence, we are of the opinion that the Offer Price of S$0.08 is not fair and not reasonable, as it is below our estimated value range of the Shares.
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ckmpd1
Supreme |
21-Oct-2021 15:03
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$5.47 looks like a good price to buy Kep Corp
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ckmpd1
Supreme |
21-Oct-2021 14:44
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![]() ![]() ![]()
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ckmpd1
Supreme |
21-Oct-2021 14:43
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Do your due diligence.  All the best
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ckmpd1
Supreme |
21-Oct-2021 14:42
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There is a likelihood that MGO may not go through.  That is why it is called a conditional MGO
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ckmpd1
Supreme |
21-Oct-2021 14:40
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It is good to share what you know of SMM and the consequences of not able to complete its projects on time.  It is a merciless world out there.  The other company will sue until SMM' s pants drop if it fails to fulfil its obligations
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ckmpd1
Supreme |
21-Oct-2021 14:38
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you have good indepth knowledge of the oil and marine industry.  Thank you for your sharing
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ckmpd1
Supreme |
21-Oct-2021 14:36
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well said. some forumners who bought at 8.7c, 8.4c cant stand reading your factual analysis.   
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ckmpd1
Supreme |
21-Oct-2021 14:34
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Chagatai
Veteran |
21-Oct-2021 14:05
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Thanks for the laughs Starship lol 😂 😂 lol | ||||
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Chagatai
Veteran |
21-Oct-2021 14:04
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I been played out from 1.50 to 20c to 8c.. I am Just Tired | ||||
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Chagatai
Veteran |
21-Oct-2021 14:02
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I take a few shots of Vodka and decide the fate of this sad affair | ||||
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Chagatai
Veteran |
21-Oct-2021 14:00
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Lol 😂 😂 lol This is the Best description yet Starship Sir Brilliant poignant acute reality
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TigerPlay
Master |
21-Oct-2021 13:58
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Maybe I should !!
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chart_expert123
Master |
21-Oct-2021 13:50
Yells: "Only buy stock with revenue or net cash flow growth!!!!" |
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i think TH is not willing to MGO Sembmar. Once 100% owned, all the debts are become sole ownership.  if still remain listed, the most move into file bankruptcy and JD, sell off assets and pay to respective creditors and liability holders, the payment will be much lower than 50%, of course customers are 1st to pay, bond honders are last to pay and may evenutally get nothing. Bond holders unfortunately are mainly singapore local banks. So, after taking over rigs and vessels from Ezion, Ezra, swiber and etc, now banks may need to take over shipyards.  
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chart_expert123
Master |
21-Oct-2021 13:42
Yells: "Only buy stock with revenue or net cash flow growth!!!!" |
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https://www.offshore-mag.com/rigs-vessels/article/16792680/sembcorp-to-pay-allseas-vessel-compensation   (Asia-Pacific) - SembCorp Industries has agreed to pay $424.8 million to Swiss group Allseas to settle more than a 10-year old dispute over the conversion of a vessel into a pipelay vessel. Allseas had commissioned SembCorp' s subsidiary Sembawang Corp Ltd. to convert bulk carrier Solitaire into a pipe lay vessel in 1993. But it terminated the $142.34 million contract two years later, alleging that SembCorp had failed to complete the work on time. unquote---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Apologise for the figures for Solitaire case. I just would like to highlight the impact of international Contracts are not like Singapore BCA contract for construction which always capped at 10% per annum as max or less. Offshore international contracts will include all the damages incurred as compensation if the contacts is not signed properly with limited liability damages. So don' t play play for the impact of covid 19 to Sembmar and Keppel O& M as well.   
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ahbui8
Master |
21-Oct-2021 13:38
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This counter still not yet gone case, depend on SH, those want surrender half or cut down, should sell to TH, if all want to sell, sell to TH. After MGO, the price will be strongly standing at 8cts.  | ||||
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chart_expert123
Master |
21-Oct-2021 13:34
Yells: "Only buy stock with revenue or net cash flow growth!!!!" |
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My advise is stay away Sembmar, i strongly believe they had signed contract without any cap of liquidated damages. Based on 1997 solitaire case, Allseas with Sembcorp, the conversion contract worth around 230Mio, at the end Sembcorp lose in the courts and compensate 470mio to Allseas for all the incurred losses claimed by All seas. I worry, the lose from Sembmar may not stop here. I also quite worry with Keppel Corp. Hopefully Keppel corp as what their CEO said, only signed contracts which are profitable, low risks, good payment term and limited LD.  Or else, i believe keppel corp will agree the merge deals quickly to discharge the Keppel O& M as a toxic away from Keppel Corps. Anyway. trade with care.
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chart_expert123
Master |
21-Oct-2021 13:27
Yells: "Only buy stock with revenue or net cash flow growth!!!!" |
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In fact, no matter what will be the outcome, we are here to invest instead of gamble. Don' t park our hard earn money on high risk counter, SGX is zombie exchange, Oil counters in sgx, all bankrupt already, Sembmar in fact is at the edge, When sembmar said to raise 1.5bil is for the 647mio loss making due to covid 19 for 1H2021. It mean another 647mio in 2H 2021, total 1.3Bil already fully burnt off in 2021, as we know, payment term is always 60-90 days nowafays. So, in fact, there are no much money left for the 1.5Bil. The merge deal is already sour and unfair to Keppel Corp now.   
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chart_expert123
Master |
21-Oct-2021 13:19
Yells: "Only buy stock with revenue or net cash flow growth!!!!" |
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Keppel O& M is PROFITABLE and Order Book 5.7Bil Sembmar is LOSE MAKING 1.3Bil and Order Book 1.7Bil. What 50-50 JV? No qualified at all. minimum 30-70% JV. or else, wait for Sembmar to JD next year and buy sembmar assets as cheap and leave all the debts and toxic contracts for TH to settle with Creditors and various customer. Keppel O& M then discharge from Keppel Corp and Keppel Corp shareholders entitled 100% of shareholding as free!!!!!
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