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25-Jul-2014 16:55

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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NOL has outstanding share of 2,594,641,448 @ 95cents which is equal to 2.47Billion Market Cap.

If NOL really cannot secure any bank loan for their unsecured bank loan, minimum 3 to 1 right issue is required to raise SGD 823Million or US659million for the unsecured loan which will be exposed to public in next 18 months.

The next coming 3 quarter results are very critical to NOL to show to the public that they can turn over in order to secure the bank loan or raise the money through right issue from the market for their unsecured 664Million borrowing. To a company like NOL with 8.8Billion revenue, cash flow is very critical. Below 500million is sufficient to give a very serious warning to the market.

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25-Jul-2014 15:32

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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2Q result will be released on 7 Aug, 2 more week to go. Highlight again on debt issue

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/NOL%20Q1%202014%20Financial%20Results.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=296951

is NOL cash flow healthy? Cash burnt from 980million to 605 million in last Q. The 300+ million cash are used to pay unsecured loan which is expired in 2014. 102million is required to pay within next 9 months. Cash flow shall reduced to 403Million

Page 3. should be all investors major concern for next 18 months period.

861Million borrowing is required to repay in next 18months and 664Million borrowing is not secured. This unsecured amount is more than the 403Million cash flow.

Cash call? So all investors shall hope for the best for this coming quarter to turn around and be profitable. Profitable can allow NOL to secure the outstanding borrowing. Otherwise, NOL has to pay borrowing with cash.

Long term is quite dark to all NOL. All the best to all holders. Non-holder shall KIV after this coming quarter result release.

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22-Jul-2014 08:55

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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Will the share price wait for you to sell if the desperate come in?

Lucky03 ( Date: 21-Jul-2014 17:18) Posted:

NOL has been embarking on the fleet renewal over the last 3 years. Any investor can only tolerate that far. They do not have any major plan now. Since they have just completed it this quarter, we should hold out judgement for another quarter or at most 2. If there is no significant turnaround and the mgmt continues to issue such disappointing forward guidance and lack of confidence, perhaps I'll also have to give up my positions. Will see what the Q2 result and what the mgmt forward guidance before making the next call. In the meantime, if there is any insider intelligence or someone from the industry who knows how NOL fare, we may see some movements in its share price as early as next week.

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21-Jul-2014 17:05

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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So you mean you are insider to know?

1) making profit in coming quarter?

2) http://www1.chineseshipping.com.cn/en/indices/ccfi.jsp last week still show low freight rate? history?

3 & 4) It is always a history...

famouspinky ( Date: 21-Jul-2014 16:52) Posted:

You should be a historian

earlybird14 ( Date: 21-Jul-2014 16:48) Posted:

Distorting facts? which one?

1) loss making?

2) low freight rate?

3) increasing debt?

4) increasing interest expense?

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21-Jul-2014 16:48

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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Distorting facts? which one?

1) loss making?

2) low freight rate?

3) increasing debt?

4) increasing interest expense?

counter ( Date: 21-Jul-2014 16:37) Posted:

Yes, and distorting facts in doing so.

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21-Jul-2014 16:29

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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Just making the facts to be easy and simple to understand.

counter ( Date: 21-Jul-2014 16:23) Posted:

It is a shame that a veteran in this forum talks like the way you do.

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21-Jul-2014 16:18

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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Ya, my statement is flaw. I should include, more NOL lose, more NOL loan, more interest to pay, no money pay interest, loan more again, till begging market to help.

counter ( Date: 21-Jul-2014 16:10) Posted:

I invest in companies. I don' t support companies. Therefore, I am not a support of NOL.

quote Face the facts, if you sell a thing with loss making margin, the more you sell, the more you lose. unquote

What a shame that you get this basic principle wrong.

Do you need me to explain to you the flaw in your argument?

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21-Jul-2014 16:03

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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Based on all the NOL supporters here seem like everything are growing. But what a shame, the container freight rate is not growing. Face the facts, if you sell a thing with loss making margin, the more you sell, the more you lose. This is NOL.

counter ( Date: 21-Jul-2014 15:46) Posted:

Singapore' s exports are over 200 per cent of the GDP and hence is very export-dependent. It' s total trade is over 4 times the GDP which is the highest in the world. Therefore, NOL is a strategic company for Singapore, pretty much like Olam for a country without commodity endowment. Do you seriously think that NOL will end before you do?

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21-Jul-2014 11:13

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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NOL ex headquarter building near PSA are closing down. No chance for NOL to buy back the building anymore since it will be redeveloped. It also imply the end of NOL!!! What a shame, a multi billion company can' t even protect their own headquarter!

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21-Jul-2014 11:08

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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He just said the facts. Holders are not willing to accept the facts and keep hoping the unrealistic news.

famouspinky ( Date: 21-Jul-2014 10:42) Posted:

I like ur style on how u frighten the forumers

Qanghoo ( Date: 21-Jul-2014 10:34) Posted:

Latest BDI reading at 732 is less than 1/3 of the recent high of 2330 in Dec 13. Will be difficult for NOL to turn around in this kind of environment.

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21-Jul-2014 06:35

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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You kept saying the samething in past 3 years. None of the quarters were profitable except including headquarter sales. This will be another loss making quarter and warning of cash flow will be even obvious.

sgng123 ( Date: 20-Jul-2014 23:45) Posted:

Just to add on, from past 3 years of depressed container shipping industry, i noticed that NOL did not lose market share on their most important transpacific trade, europe and intra asia suffers like 5-10% market share losses. Europe cargo volume had mostly recovered where intra asia still sluggish. NOL lastest fleet data updated on 27 Jun 14 shows a decline of fleets from 120 to 106, a reduction of 14 ships. In Q1 NOL retired 6 ships average capacity of 6700TEU meaning close to 40K TEU displacement and total fleet in Q1 stand at 640K TEU. Remaining charters would left like 14 ships with 80K TEU, so from the fleet data look like all charters had been returned and another 80K TEU reduction in total fleet capacity that is about 13% reduction to 560K from 640K. This would push NOL to deployed new builds delivered in 2013 and 2014 to make up for the loss in capacity, how much new ships deployed would greatly determined how much slot cost would go down, but 1 thing for sure efficiency would shoot up above 95% for transpacific due to G6 cargo sharing. 80mil cost savingin Q1 due to improved efficiency from transpacifc trade 89% > > 92% so combined with new fuel efficency ships might see a double digit gain in slot cost reduction YoY. But all these is just mine personnel view, hand off ship till clearer direction is seen. Now is judgement time for NOL management, if they cannot make it they would be kicked out lol. A flat result in 1H 14 is widely expected but nothing is for sure, with 2Q net profit cancel out 1Q loss.

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18-Jul-2014 15:30

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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5 year is too long. within 1 year, cash call will come.

enjoylife77 ( Date: 18-Jul-2014 04:13) Posted:

NOL will continue to bleed for the next 5 years. Do expect a cash call soon.

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18-Jul-2014 15:29

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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Plan only, not enforcement.

You can do some study and you will notice that hiking rates since 2013 till 2014 all are failed and sustain less than 1 month. So basically, you can just ignore these hiking rate. Unless, Maersk Line says to hike the rates and MSC follow. Both of them did it in 2012, it is the only best freght rate period since 2011.

EddieLeong ( Date: 18-Jul-2014 00:33) Posted:

any shifu can explain whether $600 per FEU is good or bad or neutral for NOL?

Lucky03 ( Date: 17-Jul-2014 21:12) Posted:

Container lines set out $600 per feu increase in the transpacific

By Marcus Hand from Singapore

Container lines are planning a $600 per feu general rate increase on the transpacific trade on 1 August.

In the latest is a series of attempts to raise box rates this year the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement (TSA) has set a minimum of $600 per feu increase from all ports in Asia to all destinations in the US on the back of what it described as ?sustained third-quarter cargo demand across major commodity segments?.

TSA executive administrator Brian Conrad said: ?It is essential for the trade to have a rate structure that encourages reinvestment, attracts equipment back into the market, covers rising inland transport and cargo handling costs, and enables carriers to broaden their service offerings. Given current rate levels, TSA members believe that $600 per FEU is the minimum needed to meet those objectives.?

Despite repeated rate increases lines have found it difficult to sustain new rate levels after they are implemented.

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16-Jul-2014 17:05

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maersk_Triple_E_class

Slow steaming is one way of managing capacity and reducing fuel consumption the Triple E Class is designed for slower speeds than Maersk' s preceding class of large container ships. Nonetheless, this order for many big ships is a gamble, on Maersk' s part, that Chinese exports will continue to grow.^[30] Lack of market growth in the second half of 2012 has caused Maersk to postpone a decision on how to use the Triple-E, and although five Triple-E are expected to be delivered in 2013, they will only have an impact sometime in 2014 when 8-9 Triple-E operate.^[47] Maersk already uses approximately 100 ships on the Asia-Europe route, which is their most important.^[24] SeaIntel expects about 46 ships with more than 10,000 TEU each to be delivered worldwide in 2013.^[48] The construction of newer, larger ships has influenced development plans at ports such as London Gateway or JadeWeserPort in Wilhelmshaven (Germany).^[49]

This 20 18000 TEU container vessels will flood to the Asia Europe Route. The existing 100 container vessels operating at existing asia europe route which include 8000 to 13000 TEU container vessels will be transfer to other shipping routes including US and South America Routes!

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16-Jul-2014 10:17

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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2005 to 2008, shipping and shipbuilding market key topic were fleet expansion and renewal. A lot of vessels were expected to step into 20 to 30 years old at that time in next 5 to 10 years. However, the real facts were realised that in 2012 to 2014, the old vessels scrapping rates are below expectation due to the main reason that majority of aging vessels were sent for intensive repair at the period of 2005 to 2008 which resulted that the aging vessels could be running for another 10 years.

The 2 main reasons causing overcapacity now are new vessels are delivered continually and the aging vessels are still running on the sea and serving the loan of the intensive repair. The scraping rate are far slower than expected.

Vessels are not limited with COE. 40 years old vessels with well maintenance are still operating on the sea. To get rid of all the old vessels will incur huge impairment loss recorded in balance book and reduce the asset value of the company. How many ship owners or container shipping company will really do that? Majority of them are still keeping the vessel or lay it off temporary and expect boom to come. But once the shipping market is recovered slightly, all these lay off vessel engine will be started to put the pressure on the vessel chartered rate and cargo shipping freight rate.

A very long lay off period is required for all these vessels till it cannot move without proper maintenance.

Lucky03 ( Date: 15-Jul-2014 19:59) Posted:

For those who simply condemning NOL, the shipping industry as a whole has been very tough and many are struggling and restructuring, disposing of non-core assets, speeding up fleet renewal and scrapping aged ships. Let's see NOL actions over last 2-3 yrs will bear fruits.

JOC ? Maritime News ? Container Lines ? COSCO
Cosco scraps two dozen ships in first half

Greg Knowler, Senior Asia Editor | Jul 15, 2014 7:11AM EDT

China Cosco Holdings scrapped another eight vessels in the second quarter, taking to 24 ships disposed of in an urgent fleet renewal programme aimed at modernizing its fleet and improving the operational efficiency of the carrier amid mounting financial losses.

Four of the ships were container carriers operated by Cosco Container Lines. The state owned shipping line did not disclose the capacity or the price per vessel, telling investors only that the eight ships were sold for $20 million.

?As a result of the decommissioning of the vessels, the average age of vessels owned by Cosco Container Lines and China Cosco Bulk Shipping (Group) Company have decreased, while the oil saving level and overall environmental friendliness of the vessels have been improved,? the carrier told investors in a filing on the Hong Kong Exchange.

?The board considers that the decommissioning of the vessels is conducive to enhancing the overall operational competitiveness of the shipping fleet of the company and is in the interest of the company and the shareholders as a whole.?

Cosco has been taking advantage of Beijing?s new scrapping policy, which provides subsidies to carriers who demolish and build vessels in China. It scrapped 16 ships in the first quarter along, raising $127 million for the troubled carrier.

After two consecutive years of losses, the company was last year one loss away from being delisted from the Shanghai Stock Exchange. However, Cosco reported an annual net income of ¥235.5 million (about US$38.3 million) in 2013, compared with net losses of ¥20 billion in 2011 and 2012, a result largely achieved through a series of asset sales to the parent company.

But the restructuring is being felt well beyond the borders of China. Cosco Container Lines Americas announced a major restructuring move last week, saying it would close offices in Boston, Charleston, Chicago, Henderson, New York, Norfolk, San Francisco and Seattle. All functions will be transferred to the new operations center to be opened by January 2015, the company said. In addition, most of the customer service and operation functions performed at the Secaucus, New Jersey, headquarters will also be transferred.

The company said it plans to finish the restructuring by year?s end. Offices in Houston, Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver and Long Beach, California are not on the list of office closures.

According to data from PIERS, the data division of JOC Group Inc., Cosco?s market share of all laden containers moving in and out of the U.S. through May of this year stood at 4.1 percent, versus 2013 total market share of 4.4 percent and a 2012 market share of 4.1 percent.

Maritime News?Container Lines?COSCO
Maritime News?Container Lines

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14-Jul-2014 16:15

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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Turning point will happen after sharp shorting and dropping, Shortists or brokers are still looking for buyers, downtrend is not end yet

earlybird14 ( Date: 14-Jul-2014 16:11) Posted:

not really, turning point doesn' t show. Panicky? I have no involvement in NOL. I will only consider to buy when NOL below 70, just for the sake of Temasek.

counter ( Date: 14-Jul-2014 13:26) Posted:

First, I don' t have a deep pocket. Second, I don' t intend to beat the trend. Third, the trend seems to have come to a turning point. Fourth, you sound panicky.

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14-Jul-2014 16:11

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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not really, turning point doesn' t show. Panicky? I have no involvement in NOL. I will only consider to buy when NOL below 70, just for the sake of Temasek.

counter ( Date: 14-Jul-2014 13:26) Posted:

First, I don' t have a deep pocket. Second, I don' t intend to beat the trend. Third, the trend seems to have come to a turning point. Fourth, you sound panicky.

earlybird14 ( Date: 14-Jul-2014 13:17) Posted:

You have deep pocket. But you can' t beat the trend.

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14-Jul-2014 13:17

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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You have deep pocket. But you can' t beat the trend.

counter ( Date: 14-Jul-2014 10:29) Posted:

I am part of the queue. I am genuine.

earlybird14 ( Date: 14-Jul-2014 09:54) Posted:

Fake queue buy to attract more buyers at this level, more to down.

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14-Jul-2014 13:04

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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Buy queues are available till 92cents, this is the minimum level NOL will go down in next 2 weeks.

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14-Jul-2014 09:54

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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Fake queue buy to attract more buyers at this level, more to down.

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