Back

Latest Forum Topics / Neptune Orient L Rg

Post Reply

NOL Post Reply Rate topic
earlybird14 Supreme	21-Jul-2014 11:08        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	He just said the facts. Holders are not willing to accept the facts and keep hoping the unrealistic news. famouspinky      ( Date: 21-Jul-2014 10:42) Posted: I like ur style on how u frighten the forumers Qanghoo      ( Date: 21-Jul-2014 10:34) Posted: Latest BDI reading at 732 is less than 1/3 of the recent high of 2330 in Dec 13.  Will be difficult for NOL to turn around in this kind of environment.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
famouspinky Supreme	21-Jul-2014 10:42        famouspinky About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I like ur style on how u frighten the forumers Qanghoo      ( Date: 21-Jul-2014 10:34) Posted: Latest BDI reading at 732 is less than 1/3 of the recent high of 2330 in Dec 13.  Will be difficult for NOL to turn around in this kind of environment.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Qanghoo Supreme	21-Jul-2014 10:34        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Latest BDI reading at 732 is less than 1/3 of the recent high of 2330 in Dec 13.  Will be difficult for NOL to turn around in this kind of environment.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Heero78 Veteran	21-Jul-2014 08:23        Heero78 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Haha...yalah! say until i dun even want to look at his posts. earlybird14      ( Date: 21-Jul-2014 06:35) Posted: You kept saying the samething in past 3 years. None of the quarters were profitable except including headquarter sales. This will be another loss making quarter and warning of cash flow will be even obvious. sgng123      ( Date: 20-Jul-2014 23:45) Posted: Just to add on, from past 3 years of depressed container shipping industry, i noticed that NOL did not lose market share on their most important transpacific trade, europe and intra asia suffers like 5-10% market share losses. Europe cargo volume had mostly recovered where intra asia still sluggish. NOL lastest fleet data updated on 27 Jun 14 shows a decline of fleets from 120 to 106, a reduction of 14 ships. In Q1 NOL retired 6 ships average capacity of 6700TEU meaning close to 40K TEU displacement and total fleet in Q1 stand at 640K TEU. Remaining charters would left like 14 ships with 80K TEU, so from the fleet data look like all charters had been returned and another 80K TEU reduction in total fleet capacity that is about 13% reduction to 560K from 640K. This would push NOL to deployed new builds delivered in 2013 and 2014 to make up for the loss in capacity, how much new ships deployed would greatly determined how much slot cost would go down, but 1 thing for sure efficiency would shoot up above 95% for transpacific due to G6 cargo sharing. 80mil cost savingin Q1 due to improved efficiency from transpacifc trade 89% > > 92% so combined with new fuel efficency ships might see a double digit gain in slot cost reduction YoY. But all these is just mine personnel view, hand off ship till clearer direction is seen. Now is judgement time for NOL management, if they cannot make it they would be kicked out lol. A flat result in 1H 14 is widely expected but nothing is for sure, with 2Q net profit cancel out 1Q loss.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
earlybird14 Supreme	21-Jul-2014 06:35        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	You kept saying the samething in past 3 years. None of the quarters were profitable except including headquarter sales. This will be another loss making quarter and warning of cash flow will be even obvious. sgng123      ( Date: 20-Jul-2014 23:45) Posted: Just to add on, from past 3 years of depressed container shipping industry, i noticed that NOL did not lose market share on their most important transpacific trade, europe and intra asia suffers like 5-10% market share losses. Europe cargo volume had mostly recovered where intra asia still sluggish. NOL lastest fleet data updated on 27 Jun 14 shows a decline of fleets from 120 to 106, a reduction of 14 ships. In Q1 NOL retired 6 ships average capacity of 6700TEU meaning close to 40K TEU displacement and total fleet in Q1 stand at 640K TEU. Remaining charters would left like 14 ships with 80K TEU, so from the fleet data look like all charters had been returned and another 80K TEU reduction in total fleet capacity that is about 13% reduction to 560K from 640K. This would push NOL to deployed new builds delivered in 2013 and 2014 to make up for the loss in capacity, how much new ships deployed would greatly determined how much slot cost would go down, but 1 thing for sure efficiency would shoot up above 95% for transpacific due to G6 cargo sharing. 80mil cost savingin Q1 due to improved efficiency from transpacifc trade 89% > > 92% so combined with new fuel efficency ships might see a double digit gain in slot cost reduction YoY. But all these is just mine personnel view, hand off ship till clearer direction is seen. Now is judgement time for NOL management, if they cannot make it they would be kicked out lol. A flat result in 1H 14 is widely expected but nothing is for sure, with 2Q net profit cancel out 1Q loss.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
sgng123 Supreme	20-Jul-2014 23:45        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Just to add on, from past 3 years of depressed container shipping industry, i noticed that NOL did not lose market share on their most important transpacific trade, europe and intra asia suffers like 5-10% market share losses. Europe cargo volume had mostly recovered where intra asia still sluggish. NOL lastest fleet data updated on 27 Jun 14 shows a decline of fleets from 120 to 106, a reduction of 14 ships. In Q1 NOL retired 6 ships average capacity of 6700TEU meaning close to 40K TEU displacement and total fleet in Q1 stand at 640K TEU. Remaining charters would left like 14 ships with 80K TEU, so from the fleet data look like all charters had been returned and another 80K TEU reduction in total fleet capacity that is about 13% reduction to 560K from 640K. This would push NOL to deployed new builds delivered in 2013 and 2014 to make up for the loss in capacity, how much new ships deployed would greatly determined how much slot cost would go down, but 1 thing for sure efficiency would shoot up above 95% for transpacific due to G6 cargo sharing. 80mil cost savingin Q1 due to improved efficiency from transpacifc trade 89% > > 92% so combined with new fuel efficency ships might see a double digit gain in slot cost reduction YoY. But all these is just mine personnel view, hand off ship till clearer direction is seen. Now is judgement time for NOL management, if they cannot make it they would be kicked out lol. A flat result in 1H 14 is widely expected but nothing is for sure, with 2Q net profit cancel out 1Q loss.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Lucky03 Elite	20-Jul-2014 21:11        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	NOL will be releasing its Q2 result probably after market close on 7 Aug, less than 3 weeks to go. For Q2 '13, it reported a gross profit of US$148.3m and net loss of US$33.6m. For H1 '13, it reported a gross profit of US$263.6m and net gain of US$42.8m after taking into consideration the sale of its HQ Building booking gain of US$200m in Q1 '13. Otherwise, its H1 '13 would have been a net loss of US$157.2m. NOL delivered Q1 '14 gross profit US$109.5m and registered net loss of US$94.6m without the benefit of the US$200m onetime gain in Q1 '13. To better H1 '13, NOL needs to deliver more than US$154m gross profit and registered net profit no less than US$137m for Q2 '14. Taking out the US$200m onetime gain in FY13, NOL would have performed equally for H1 '14 vs H1 '13 should it deliver net loss of no more than US$63m for Q2 '14. This will not be acceptable since this will be a QoQ loss vs a net loss of US$33.6m for Q1 '13. Given NOL delivered Q1 '14 below expectation citing severe winter weather in US and Europe plus Q2 '13 below expectation too citing unseasonal slow down in automotive segment, I don't see similar factors to affect their Q2 '14 result except for continued depressed freight rate due to oversupply. Indicators are that trade volume had rebounded strongly in Q2 after the pent up demand from Q1. NOL will do much injustice if they lose market share since they recently reorganize themselves along functional line rather than geographical structure to better respond to market condition and competition. Personally, I'll be very disappointed if NOL did not deliver a profit in Q2. This is based on 3 factors - 1. Trade volume rebounded from pent up demand from severe winter in Q1 2. NOL should see even more cost saving in excess of 8% given that it has complete its fleet renewal and taken last 10 ships and retiring 5 more expensive charters ships besides whatever economy of scale and better utilization resulting from G6 alliance. 3. The continued fall of freight rate should be slower than the cost saving as above. What is unknown is any further seasonal or unseasonal factors that eluded the market generally, NOL losing market share or extent of amortization charges of the new ships and taxation plus forex losses or gains. So, between net loss of US$63m loss to a profit of US$154m for Q2, what will it be ? Will of fate better or worst outside the range ? The range is not an assessment based on its true performance but rather a case where NOL will fare no 'worst than H1 FY13' for both scenario - with and without the onetime gain of US$200m that often distort the way NOL result and performance is being presented.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Lucky03 Elite	19-Jul-2014 00:45        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	PUBLISHED JULY 18, 2014 US leading indicator points to stronger second-half growth A gauge of future US economic activity rose in June, supporting views of a stronger growth performance in the second half of the year. - PHOTO: AFP [WASHINGTON] A gauge of future US economic activity rose in June, supporting views of a stronger growth performance in the second half of the year. The Conference Board said on Friday that its Leading Economic Index increased 0.3 per cent last month after an upwardly revised 0.7 per cent rise in May. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the index to rise 0.5 per cent after May's previously reported 0.5 per cent gain. "Broad-based increases in the LEI over the last six months signal an economy that is expanding in the near term and may even somewhat accelerate in the second half," said Ataman Ozyildirim, an economist at the Conference Board.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
earlybird14 Supreme	18-Jul-2014 15:30        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	5 year is too long. within 1 year, cash call will come. enjoylife77      ( Date: 18-Jul-2014 04:13) Posted: NOL will continue to bleed for the next 5 years.  Do expect a cash call soon.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
earlybird14 Supreme	18-Jul-2014 15:29        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Plan only, not enforcement. You can do some study and you will notice that hiking rates since 2013 till 2014 all are failed and sustain less than 1 month. So basically, you can just ignore these hiking rate. Unless, Maersk Line says to hike the rates and MSC follow. Both of them did it in 2012, it is the only best freght rate  period  since 2011. EddieLeong      ( Date: 18-Jul-2014 00:33) Posted: any shifu can explain whether $600 per FEU is good or bad or neutral for NOL? Lucky03      ( Date: 17-Jul-2014 21:12) Posted: Container lines set out $600 per feu increase in the transpacific By Marcus Hand from Singapore Container lines are planning a $600 per feu general rate increase on the transpacific trade on 1 August. In the latest is a series of attempts to raise box rates this year the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement (TSA) has set a minimum of $600 per feu increase from all ports in Asia to all destinations in the US on the back of what it described as ?sustained third-quarter cargo demand across major commodity segments?. TSA executive administrator Brian Conrad said: ?It is essential for the trade to have a rate structure that encourages reinvestment, attracts equipment back into the market, covers rising inland transport and cargo handling costs, and enables carriers to broaden their service offerings. Given current rate levels, TSA members believe that $600 per FEU is the minimum needed to meet those objectives.? Despite repeated rate increases lines have found it difficult to sustain new rate levels after they are implemented.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
counter Veteran	18-Jul-2014 12:01        counter About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Why do you say so?
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
enjoylife77 Veteran	18-Jul-2014 04:13        enjoylife77 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	NOL will continue to bleed for the next 5 years.  Do expect a cash call soon.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
sgng123 Supreme	18-Jul-2014 03:23        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Don matter much for NOL as most of their business are conducted in yearly fixed contract rate, any increase in GRI only affect a small part of the business which are not covered by the contract. What counts for NOL is how low can the slot cost can be cut to return profit margin, a increase in cargo volume might also help as it ramp up load factor and improve cost efficency.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
EddieLeong Member	18-Jul-2014 00:33        EddieLeong About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	any shifu can explain whether $600 per FEU is good or bad or neutral for NOL? Lucky03      ( Date: 17-Jul-2014 21:12) Posted: Container lines set out $600 per feu increase in the transpacific By Marcus Hand from Singapore Container lines are planning a $600 per feu general rate increase on the transpacific trade on 1 August. In the latest is a series of attempts to raise box rates this year the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement (TSA) has set a minimum of $600 per feu increase from all ports in Asia to all destinations in the US on the back of what it described as ?sustained third-quarter cargo demand across major commodity segments?. TSA executive administrator Brian Conrad said: ?It is essential for the trade to have a rate structure that encourages reinvestment, attracts equipment back into the market, covers rising inland transport and cargo handling costs, and enables carriers to broaden their service offerings. Given current rate levels, TSA members believe that $600 per FEU is the minimum needed to meet those objectives.? Despite repeated rate increases lines have found it difficult to sustain new rate levels after they are implemented.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Lucky03 Elite	17-Jul-2014 21:12        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Container lines set out $600 per feu increase in the transpacific By Marcus Hand from Singapore Container lines are planning a $600 per feu general rate increase on the transpacific trade on 1 August. In the latest is a series of attempts to raise box rates this year the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement (TSA) has set a minimum of $600 per feu increase from all ports in Asia to all destinations in the US on the back of what it described as ?sustained third-quarter cargo demand across major commodity segments?. TSA executive administrator Brian Conrad said: ?It is essential for the trade to have a rate structure that encourages reinvestment, attracts equipment back into the market, covers rising inland transport and cargo handling costs, and enables carriers to broaden their service offerings. Given current rate levels, TSA members believe that $600 per FEU is the minimum needed to meet those objectives.? Despite repeated rate increases lines have found it difficult to sustain new rate levels after they are implemented.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Lucky03 Elite	17-Jul-2014 21:06        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Ultra-large containership ordering grinds to a halt By Jim Hanscom from Washington DC By shunning its taste for the orderbook, the liner sector may have joined the upswing in global shipping fortunes. Two years of imbalance could lie ahead, but suddenly there are signs that demand may catch up with the forecast supply in 2016. A resurrection of the order book could destroy that dream, but the current trend is notable. Ship ordering has ground nearly to a halt just as European traffic demand, the key to the employment of the ultra-sized fleet, has turned up. The orderbook has dropped to beneath 20% of fleet capacity, compared to nearly 50% several years back. According to Platou?s numbers, only three containerships were ordered in June, all below 3,000 teu. Through the first half, 74 ships were ordered, including 33 vessels above 10,000 teu, accounting for more than two-thirds of the 620,000 teu capacity. The present pace is well below that of recent years. New orders amounted to 247 vessels of 1.97m teu in 2013, and 240 vessels of 1.9 million teu in 2012. The results appear to have emerged from the rise and fall of the P3 Alliance, which aimed at suppressing competition by compressing all but one major carrier into one of three alliances. P3 would have claimed nearly half the main line shipping capacity. The expectation of three alliances led to a spate of orders for ultra-sized vessels, 13,000 to 18,000 teu, as carriers used easy credit, cheap money and knocked-down prices to claim a seat at the table. The price of joining an alliance in effect was a commitment to supply ultra-sized tonnage. The ordering started to wane earlier in the year as the industry awaited a regulatory decision on the formation of the alliances. After a start of 25 ships in January, the ordering dwindled. The US and European authorities then went along with P3, but the Chinese denied it on the basis of anti-competition. After the rejection, near silence. The present order book through June showed 451 vessels totaling 3.45m teu. As scheduled, 141 vessels of 890,000 teu would be delivered in the second half of 2014 207 vessels of 1.76m teu in 2015 and 103 vessels of 800,000 teu in 2016. Old habits die hard, so it is difficult to describe disciplined ordering as the new normal, and P3?s smaller replacement the 2M vessel sharing agreement is now on the cards, and just this week China Cosco said it was mulling ordering five 13,000 teu vessels. But the industry?s fragile financial condition may make it so.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Lucky03 Elite	17-Jul-2014 01:18        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	TSA carriers plan to boost rates ahead of peak season Bill Mongelluzzo, Senior Editor | Jul 16, 2014 12:11PM EDT Buoyed by continued strength in imports from Asia, the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement today recommended that carriers in the eastbound trans-Pacific increase their freight rates...
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Lucky03 Elite	17-Jul-2014 01:15        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hong Kong port volumes rise 5.6% in June By Vincent Wee from Hong Kong The Port of Hong Kong's container throughput rose 5.6% in June to 1.93m teu from 1.82m teu in the previous corresponding period. However volumes fell from the 1.95m teu moved the month before. Throughput at the main Kwai Tsing terminals rose 8.9% to 1.56m teu from 1.43m teu in June last year. However at the non-Kwai Tsing terminals volumes continued a downward trend, falling by 6.3% to 370,000 teu from 395,000 teu previously. The month-on-month figure was also lower compared to the 390,000 teu seen in May this year, while for the Kwai Tsing terminals, there was almost no change from the month before. Published inAsia, Containers, Port & Logistics
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Lucky03 Elite	17-Jul-2014 00:03        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Volume at ports are for sure picking up and accelerating. News Cat Lai struggles to handle box surge Hanoi: Cat Lai Port in Ho Chi Minh City is suffering from severe congestion with too many boxes and too little infrastructure. Box volumes jumped 12% in the first six months. Scanning of boxes is taking a long time with shippers having to wait up to three days to get their containers, according to local reports. Saigon Newport Company, which controls the port, has urged local authorities to switch container traffic to alternative destinations such as two new ports, Ben Nghe and Phu Huu, while it has also recommended an urgent upgrade to facilities at Cat Lai. [16/07/14]
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
counter Veteran	16-Jul-2014 18:51        counter About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I couldn' t agree more with you on this. Lucky03      ( Date: 16-Jul-2014 12:30) Posted: Back to the days when businesses were booming for the shipping industry, many of them scramble to increase their capacity. Ordering new ships take years to deliver esp when the shipyards were flooded with orders. One of the quicker ways was to 're-groom' older ships to get them to run a few more years to meet demand. Of course fast forward, the recession threw all of them off balance and now the new ships are being delivered and compounded the low demand problem with overwhelming supply. Argument for fleet renewal now is to counter cost pressure. There will be no reason to continue to run those older ships and the retirement of older ships will pick up momentum. Eventually the cycle will reverse once demand picks up again as the global economy recovers and the alliances consolidate. This is a cyclical industry and it is to catch the cycle at the right timing.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me

                                                         First   < Newer   7381-7400 of 11177   Older>   Last