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Latest Posts By Lucky03 - Elite      About Lucky03
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16-Nov-2013 12:55 Neptune Orient L Rg   /   NOL       Go to Message
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There was a period where Japanese tourists are all over the world !
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16-Nov-2013 12:53 Neptune Orient L Rg   /   NOL       Go to Message
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As US continues to buy and Asia corinues to sell, most of the hot money ended up in assets such as properties as Asians generally save more. Only when major Asian economies such as China, Japan and Korea transform into consumer driven growth or Europe actually recovers and started spending again, the printed money continues to be stashed away and yes, they will depreciate or property bubbles burst ultimately and it will not be growth but rather depression. So, the success depends on how such economies succeed in transforming their economies before it is too late. One has to stay positive as there are encouraging signs that China and Japan may have some early successes. One of which is tourism where Chineae are traveling widely and buying like crazy.
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15-Nov-2013 22:42 Neptune Orient L Rg   /   NOL       Go to Message
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Totally agreed.

williamyeo      ( Date: 15-Nov-2013 22:16) Posted:

Buy and keep treat it like FD, the return definitely better than interest.

Lucky03      ( Date: 15-Nov-2013 22:10) Posted:

Yes, just buy and wait :


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15-Nov-2013 22:10 Neptune Orient L Rg   /   NOL       Go to Message
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Yes, just buy and wait :)

Gonggongtry      ( Date: 15-Nov-2013 18:55) Posted:



just buy its and gong gong wait for it to shoot to sky .

hope dream come ture )

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14-Nov-2013 18:43 Neptune Orient L Rg   /   NOL       Go to Message
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I agree with what Dr YC. Chan comment at the end of his Oct 203 issue below that NOL should be turning around. Can't tell if the price will support it 6 mths or 1 year but the yield should be more than 30%.

Dear Friends
After US Fed?s meeting on 30 October, matters relating to bond purchases and extremely low interest rate remained status quo. US Stocks however, dipped after hitting new high. The reaction is not unusual after short selling on good news. Before the good news was announced, the stock markets went up, which means the concluded result was expected by the markets.
Since the Fed?s market withdrwal forenounced in May this year, US stocks have dropped 3 times, conspicuously to rock bottom: 1 time in mid June 2 time end of August 3 time early October. The withdrawal does not happen this time round, but it will definitely happen in time to come. Thus I believe US stocks will repeatedly go up and down under the shadow of market withdrawal influence.

For the short term, US stocks will move independently depending on the performance of invidual listed companies. The local market should have its focus on the Third Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party and the the People?s Bank?s money supplies. US Fed will have another meeting in December. It should be the last meeting attended by the incumbent Chairman Bernanke who initiated the Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy (QE) of the US. Morally Bernanke should not simply leave as it is. Thus I am somewhat concern the December meeting might unexpectedly start to withdraw from the markets prior to Bernanke?s departure, and to let him handle the post withdrawal issues.

In December US Republican Party and the Democratic Party will negotiate once again on US national debt ceiling issue. The October 17 agreement was to push back the issue for 3 months Republicans will keep using the debt ceiling issue to force Obama to cut governmental expenditures. In September this year, US financial expenditures were surprisingly in black with some surpluses. I believe this could be the result of the Republicans? past successful automatic deficit reduction budget plan. In fact, if Obama would follow Clinton not spending frivolously, US tax revenue would exceed expenditure with no deficit, and the debt ceiling issue would not have happened.
Awhile ago, the share price of SkyOne Holdings plummeted. Since large numbers of dragon stocks and those Singapore companies with investments in China public listed in Singapore, problems often surface due to relatively poorer corporate governance in China. On the othe hand, there could be some people, reporters in particular, having received money from a 3 party,
purposefully spread unfavourable faked news of a company to let its share price drop, so that the 3 party who pay the money make profit from short selling prior to the faked news. Lately the Chinese Public Security Authorities arrest a Guangzhou New Express (广 州 新 快 报 )reporter suspected of spreading unfavourable faked news of Hong Kong listed Zoomlion (中 联 重 科 ).
How to we tackle this kind of problems?

The only way is to deversify your investments. Be wary of those manipulated dragon stocks. Do not over panic, search into the sources of the news to see if it is from some ones with motives spreading rumours.

NOL has turned around in 3
quarter. The worst senario of freight forwarders should be over.
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14-Nov-2013 00:35 Neptune Orient L Rg   /   NOL       Go to Message
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How different ?

MetalTrader      ( Date: 14-Nov-2013 00:08) Posted:

Maersk Line & NOL are completely different, though both are in shipping industry.
If you link 2 together, i guess you are off track.

Lucky03      ( Date: 13-Nov-2013 22:34) Posted:

NOL should see the same story soon.

Profit at Maersk Line was up 10% for the period, helped by efficiency gains and an increase in volumes.

APM Terminals' profit for the third quarter rose from $156m to $203m, as volumes grew 4% to 9.3m teu, in line with expectations, and revenues grew by 7%.

Maersk Tankers recorded an $18m profit for the third quarter, up from a $278m loss in Q3 2012, although its nine month net loss stands at $271m fuelled by depreciation, amortisation and impairment losses, down from $316m for the same nine months last year.

Maersk Drilling's third quarter improved from $84m last year to $148m in 2013 as operational uptime rose to 98% and day rates increased.

Profit at Maersk Oil fell to $189m from $243m, entitlement production of 229,000 boepd is down on last year's 240,000 boepd, but represents a halt to the decline with a small increase over the second quarter of this year.

The group has revised its result forecast to $3.5bn, up from $3.3bn, and expects Maersk Line to record a significant improvement over last years $461m profit for the full year, despite entering the seasonally low fourth quarter with low rates.


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13-Nov-2013 22:34 Neptune Orient L Rg   /   NOL       Go to Message
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NOL should see the same story soon.

Profit at Maersk Line was up 10% for the period, helped by efficiency gains and an increase in volumes.

APM Terminals' profit for the third quarter rose from $156m to $203m, as volumes grew 4% to 9.3m teu, in line with expectations, and revenues grew by 7%.

Maersk Tankers recorded an $18m profit for the third quarter, up from a $278m loss in Q3 2012, although its nine month net loss stands at $271m fuelled by depreciation, amortisation and impairment losses, down from $316m for the same nine months last year.

Maersk Drilling's third quarter improved from $84m last year to $148m in 2013 as operational uptime rose to 98% and day rates increased.

Profit at Maersk Oil fell to $189m from $243m, entitlement production of 229,000 boepd is down on last year's 240,000 boepd, but represents a halt to the decline with a small increase over the second quarter of this year.

The group has revised its result forecast to $3.5bn, up from $3.3bn, and expects Maersk Line to record a significant improvement over last years $461m profit for the full year, despite entering the seasonally low fourth quarter with low rates.
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13-Nov-2013 22:28 Neptune Orient L Rg   /   NOL       Go to Message
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2014 should be a turnaround year for NOL. I won't be surprised if the price doubles as freight rate recovers with improved East-West trade as Europe recovers and the cost efficiency that NOL is already experiencing.

Maersk Line boosts AP Møller profits, P3 aiming for Q2 2014


By Gary Howard
from London

Maersk Line?s operating profit after tax for the first nine months of 2013 stands at $1.1bn, up from $126m for the same period last year.

Profit for the third quarter was $554m, Improving on Q3 2012's $498m.

The Danish box line's efficiency drive and a drop in bunker costs slashed unit cost by $390 per feu and, along with a 10.6% increase in volumes to 2.3m feu, helped to offset a 12% decline in freight rates to $2,654 per feu.

Three of the company's Triple E ULCVs were delivered during the quarter, contributing to a capacity increase of 3.9% since Q3 2012.

The company also gave a brief update on the state of the P3 alliance for East-West trade of Maersk Line, MSC and CMA CGM, "Par­ties have carefully reviewed the applicable laws and are cooperating closely with competition and maritime au­thorities worldwide to provide the information required to obtain regulatory approval. Aim is to start operations in Q2 2014, assuming regulatory approval has been ob­tained by then."

Maersk Line expects its 2013 result to be a significant improvement on the $461m recorded last year.
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11-Nov-2013 20:18 Neptune Orient L Rg   /   NOL       Go to Message
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http://www.seatrade-global.com/news/americas/container-lines-plan-transpacific-rate-increase.html

Monday, 11th November 2013
Your daily insight into the shipping world

Container lines plan transpacific rate increase

By Marcus Hand
from Singapore

Container lines on the transpacific trade are aiming to raise Asia ? US rates by $400 per feu from 15 November.

As container lines continue to struggle for profitability the 15 member lines of the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement (TSA) announced plans for the $400 per feu general rate increase on all origin and destination ports of on the Asia ? US trade.

?The trade is seeing modest but healthy cargo growth over 2012, while cargo handling, equipment and other costs continue to rise and most carriers are operating at a loss,? said TSA executive administrator Brian Conrad. ?It makes no sense for rates to be at current levels, and it threatens the ability of individual carriers to maintain service levels heading into 2014.?

TSA said cargo volumes on the trade had been rising steadily since mid-August.

Published in Americas, Asia, Containers

© Copyright 2013 Seatrade Communications Limited. Replication or redistribution in whole or in part is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Seatrade Communications Limited.
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07-Nov-2013 20:55 Neptune Orient L Rg   /   NOL       Go to Message
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I'm looking at the 100 Days MA which appears to be flattening and may signal upward turn soon
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07-Nov-2013 18:27 Neptune Orient L Rg   /   NOL       Go to Message
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http://www.joc.com/maritime-news/international-freight-shipping/ocean-carrier-rate-revision-roundup-nov-1_20131101.html

Ocean Carrier Rate Revision Roundup for Nov. 1

JOC Staff | Nov 01, 2013 11:38AM EDT

Major container lines have announced planned rate increases for a variety of trades, as detailed below, slated to take effect in November and December.

Europe-Asia

CMA CGM hopes to increase rates in its trade from North Europe, including the north continent, Scandinavia and the U.K. and excluding the Baltic region, to Asia. For shipments to the Far East, the hike will be $200 per 20-foot container and $400 per 40-foot container, effective Nov. 1. For shipments to the Red Sea and Persian Gulf, the increase will be $150 per 20-foot container and $250 per container, effective Nov. 16.

Similarly, Maersk Line intends to implement a rate increase in its trade from North Europe to Asia. For shipments to the Far East, the increase will be $200 per 20-foot container and $300 per 40-foot and 45-foot container, effective Nov. 1. For shipments to the Middle East and Indian subcontinent, the hike will be $200 per 20-foot container and $300 per 40-foot, 40-foot high-cube and 45-foot container, starting Nov. 15.

In addition, Maersk Line plans to hike rates in its trade from the Mediterranean to the Far East, starting Nov. 15. From the Mediterranean, excluding Syria, to the Far East, the increase will be $200 per 20-foot container and $300 per 40-foot and 45-foot container, and from Syria to the Far East the increase will be ?150 per 20-foot container and ?225 per 40-foot and 45-foot container.

Asia-Latin America

Two carriers hope to implement rate increases on Nov. 15:

Mediterranean Shipping Co. plans to implement a rate increase on cargo from the Far East to South America?s east coast by $650 per 20-foot container and $1,300 per 40-foot container.
Hapag-Lloyd plans to boost rates in its trade from East Asia, the Indian subcontinent and the Middle East to South America?s east coast by $650 per 20-foot-equivalent unit.
Two carriers have also planned to boost rates on Dec. 1:

Hapag-Lloyd hopes to increase rates on shipments from East Asia to Mexico, Central America?s west coast and South America?s west coast by $500 per TEU. The container line also intends to boost rates on trade from East Asia to the Caribbean, Central America?s east coast and Panama by $700 per 20-foot container and $1,000 per 40-foot container.
Similarly, Hamburg Süd aims to elevate rates on its trade from Asia to Mexico, Central America?s west coast and South America?s west coast by $500 per 20-foot container, $750 per non-operated refrigerated container and $1,000 per 40-foot standard and 40-foot reefer container. It also plans to hike rates from Asia to the Caribbean by $700 per 20-foot container and $1,000 per 40-foot and 40-foot high-cube container.
Trans-Pacific

On Nov. 15, CMA CGM will attempt to raise rates on wastepaper shipments from the U.S. to the Far East. From the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast, the increase will be $160 per 20-foot container and $200 per 40-foot and 45-foot container, and from the Port of Oakland, Calif., the hike will be $120 per 20-foot container and $150 per 40-foot and 45-foot container.

On the same date, CMA CGM also intends to boost rates on shipments of metal scrap, wastepaper, forestry products, plastic scrap, resin, hay and agricultural products in its trade from the U.S. West Coast and inland point locations via U.S. East Coast or Gulf Coast ports to the Far East. The hike will be $80 per 20-foot container and $100 per 40-foot and 45-foot container.

Additionally, U.S. Lines hopes to increase rates on westbound citrus shipments from the U.S. and Canada to Asia, starting Dec. 1. The hike will be $400 per 20-foot reefer container and $500 per 40-foot reefer container.

Asia-Africa

CMA CGM aims to increase rates on its Shaka Express 2 service from Asia, including Japan, Southeast Asia and Bangladesh, to Mauritius by $200 per TEU, starting Nov. 1. The container line also plans to implement a rate increase on its Swahili Express service from India and the United Arab Emirates to East Africa, starting Nov. 15, by $500 per TEU.

Intra-Asia

Starting Nov. 1, CMA CGM aims to boost rates in its trade from Asia, including Japan, Southeast Asia and Bangladesh, to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia Ain Sokhna, Egypt Aqaba, Jordan Djibouti Port Sudan, Sudan and Aden and Hodeidah, Yemen. The increase will be $500 per TEU.

On the same date, the carrier also hopes to raise rates in its trade from Asia, excluding Japan, to the Middle East, by $500 per TEU.

Asia-Australia

Maersk Line hopes to raise rates in its trade from Northeast Asia to Australia by $300 per 20-foot container and $600 per 40-foot and 40-foot high-cube container, effective Nov. 17.
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07-Nov-2013 18:21 Neptune Orient L Rg   /   NOL       Go to Message
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More signs of Europe recovery. Trans continental trade will increase and shipping demand will rise and so is freight rate and benefitting companies such as NOL.

[FRANKFURT] German factory orders increased more than estimated in September in a sign that Europe's largest economy is benefiting from a recovery in the euro area and rising domestic investment.
Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, jumped 3.3 per cent from August, when they fell 0.3 per cent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said yesterday. Economists forecast a gain of 0.5 per cent, according to the median of 37 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Orders advanced 7.9 per cent from a year ago, when adjusted for the number of working days.
Europe's largest economy stands to benefit as the 17-nation euro area, its biggest export market, rebounds from a recession. Car sales in the currency bloc climbed the most in two years in September and economic confidence rose more than expected last month. The Bundesbank said last month that German gross domestic product probably expanded last quarter, albeit at a slower pace than in the three months through June.
"Today's data is much stronger than expected and it shows some improvement in the German factory sector at the end of the third quarter," said Annalisa Piazza, an analyst at Newedge Group in London.

PUBLISHED NOVEMBER 07, 2013
Spain Sept industrial output grows for the first time in 30 months

[MADRID] Spain's industrial output grew for the first time since February 2011 in September, official data showed on Thursday, supporting preliminary data which has showed the economy emerged from recession in the third quarter.
Calendar-adjusted output rose by a surprise 1.4 per cent year-on-year in September, the National Statistics Institute showed, beating expectations of a 1.5 per cent contraction.
In August output fell 2.1 per cent, below a preliminary reading for a 2 per cent drop. - Reuters
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06-Nov-2013 00:41 Neptune Orient L Rg   /   NOL       Go to Message
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http://www.joc.com/maritime-news/trade-lanes/asia-europe/scfi-asia-europe-rates-more-double_20131101.html

SCFI: Asia-to-Europe Rates More Than Double

JOC Staff | Nov 01, 2013 11:08AM EDT

Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, Mediterranean, week ending Nov. 1, 2013
Full-size image
Spot container rates from Asia to European ports measured by the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index soared in the week ending Nov. 1. Both Mediterranean and northern European lanes saw rates increase of between $700 and $800 per 20-foot-equivalent unit, in response to a Nov. 1 general rate increase.

The success of this GRI was due in part to discipline by the carriers, which was not the case in the unsuccessful GRI of Sept.1, said Jean-Marie Lamay, Head of Commodity and Freight Solutions at HSH Nordbank. The initial success of this GRI was slightly higher than anticipated, but the market is expected to slide in November due to the fact that fundamentals have not changed enough to warrant rates at this level. It is encouraging to see the market can move up by so much so fast, which shows that the layer strategy of hedging by the carriers can work to balance out the decline of rates.

The spot rate from Shanghai to Mediterranean ports jumped 111.7 percent or $791 from the week before to $1,499 per TEU, up from $708, according to the latest SCFI data issued by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange. This was a rebound from the recent 10-week slump in which rates fell by a composite $788 per TEU. The SCFI to the Mediterranean is now up 42.1 percent year-over-year and up 29.4 percent from Jan. 1.

Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, North Europe, week ending Nov. 1, 2013
Full-size image
The spot rate from Shanghai to northern European ports for the week ending Nov. 1 climbed 112.4 percent or $753 from the week before, when it sat at $670 per TEU, reaching $1,423. The SCFI rate to northern Europe for the week ending Nov.1 is 4.6 percent below where it was at the same point in 2012, but 12.0 percent higher than at the beginning of 2013.

The Nov. 1 GRI on the Asia-Europe lanes was relatively successful thus far. OOCL, Hapag Lloyd, United Arab Shipping Co., Zim Integrated Shipping Services, Evergreen, CMA CGM, and ANL had all proposed increases of between $750 and $1,000 per TEU, while Maersk Line had set a minimum increase of $600 per TEU.
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04-Nov-2013 09:38 Neptune Orient L Rg   /   NOL       Go to Message
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From Dr YC Chan Oct 2013 issue which mentioned NOL in the end of the report -

Dear Friends
After US Fed?s meeting on 30 October, matters relating to bond purchases and extremely low interest rate remained status quo. US Stocks however, dipped after hitting new high. The reaction is not unusual after short selling on good news. Before the good news was announced, the stock markets went up, which means the concluded result was expected by the markets.
Since the Fed?s market withdrwal forenounced in May this year, US stocks have dropped 3 times, conspicuously to rock bottom: 1 time in mid June 2 time end of August 3 time early October. The withdrawal does not happen this time round, but it will definitely happen in time to come. Thus I believe US stocks will repeatedly go up and down under the shadow of market withdrawal influence.

For the short term, US stocks will move independently depending on the performance of invidual listed companies. The local market should have its focus on the Third Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party and the the People?s Bank?s money supplies. US Fed will have another meeting in December. It should be the last meeting attended by the incumbent Chairman Bernanke who initiated the Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy (QE) of the US. Morally Bernanke should not simply leave as it is. Thus I am somewhat concern the December meeting might unexpectedly start to withdraw from the markets prior to Bernanke?s departure, and to let him handle the post withdrawal issues.

In December US Republican Party and the Democratic Party will negotiate once again on US national debt ceiling issue. The October 17 agreement was to push back the issue for 3 months Republicans will keep using the debt ceiling issue to force Obama to cut governmental expenditures. In September this year, US financial expenditures were surprisingly in black with some surpluses. I believe this could be the result of the Republicans? past successful automatic deficit reduction budget plan. In fact, if Obama would follow Clinton not spending frivolously, US tax revenue would exceed expenditure with no deficit, and the debt ceiling issue would not have happened.
Awhile ago, the share price of SkyOne Holdings plummeted. Since large numbers of dragon stocks and those Singapore companies with investments in China public listed in Singapore, problems often surface due to relatively poorer corporate governance in China. On the othe hand, there could be some people, reporters in particular, having received money from a 3 party,
purposefully spread unfavourable faked news of a company to let its share price drop, so that the 3 party who pay the money make profit from short selling prior to the faked news. Lately the Chinese Public Security Authorities arrest a Guangzhou New Express (广 州 新 快 报 )reporter suspected of spreading unfavourable faked news of Hong Kong listed Zoomlion (中 联 重 科 ).
How to we tackle this kind of problems?

The only way is to deversify your investments. Be wary of those manipulated dragon stocks. Do not over panic, search into the sources of the news to see if it is from some ones with motives spreading rumours.

NOL has turned around in 3
quarter. The worst senario of freight forwarders should be over.
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02-Nov-2013 00:56 Neptune Orient L Rg   /   NOL       Go to Message
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Spain's Outlook Changed to Stable From Negative by Fitch

sgng123      ( Date: 01-Nov-2013 16:24) Posted:

SCFI soars 240pt again another US$1000 GRI successful very kelong thing. Carriers controls the market and when they get enough market share and kick out the weak players, they would gang up and push rate very high to recover 3 years of loss. watch it. low season still can get very big gri through, very shady business environment not open no transparency. Ship price can swing very wild when world economy recovers.

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31-Oct-2013 16:17 Neptune Orient L Rg   /   NOL       Go to Message
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Buy for future. I believe NOL may see its worst. Bet on Europe recovery.

WanSiTong      ( Date: 31-Oct-2013 14:13) Posted:



Neptune Orient Lines - No respite from freight rate woes

Written By Stock Fanatic on Thursday, October 31, 2013

? Rate restorations on Asia-Europe in June-July helped container liner division to break even in 3Q13


? But results still slightly below as Intra-Asia rates plunged owing to capacity cascading from mainlanes

? Current spot rates on Asia-Europe are back at panic levels again , but no major capacity reduction measures seen

? Maintain HOLD with TP adjusted to S$1.10

Highlights
Muted peak season, as expected. NOL reported headline net profit of US$20m in 3Q13, compared to our expectations of about US$12m, but this includes about US$34m realized forex gains, and hence results are slightly worse than expected. Liner volumes were down 5% y-o-y, and interestingly 5% q-o-q as well, despite it being the traditional peak season.

Intra-Asia volumes were the worst affected (down 12% q-o-q) as were Intra-Asia rates (down 7% q-o-q), possibly due to the cascading of capacity from the mainlanes. Asia-Europe rates recovered on average by 10% q-o-q as a result of the rate restoration programmes in June-July, and combined with NOL?s cost control measures, resulted in better operating performance compared to 2Q. However, profits are likely to be short-lived, as we explain below.

Our View
Rates are quickly back to the bottom. We had highlighted earlier that we do not expect the July rate increases to stick beyond 3Q. As it turned out, spot Asia-Europe rates started falling sharply from end-August and at US$661/ TEU now, are down 60% since early August. The rate plunge is largely due to carriers? failure to keep capacity in check, with the introduction of new 13,000-18,000 TEU ships in the last few months.

Though liners have variously announced rate increases ranging from US$600-1,000 per TEU from 1st November, we expect the impact to be short-lived, as no capacity reduction measures for the low season has been announced, unlike last year, when Maersk, G6 and CKYH Alliances had taken off loops.



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Technical Analysis
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Recommendation
Unfavourable demand-supply dynamics continue to persist. We keep our numbers relatively unchanged and maintain our HOLD call on the stock, with an adjusted TP of S$1.10, pegged to 1.0x FY14P/BV. Despite hopes of a slow economic recovery, we do not think NOL will be able to achieve normalised returns before FY15, given the influx of capacity still scheduled to enter the industry, going forward. (Read Report)




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30-Oct-2013 18:09 Neptune Orient L Rg   /   NOL       Go to Message
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NOL reports US$20 million third quarter profit
Group?s year-to-date Core EBIT improves 33%
SINGAPORE, 30 October 2013 ? NOL Group today reported net profits of US$20 million for the third quarter of 2013, and year-to-date net profits of US$61 million. The Group posted year- to-date Core EBIT improvement of 33% or US$42 million, from a US$127 million deficit in the same period last year.
Singapore-based NOL attributed the better showing so far this year to its continuing focus on operational efficiency and cost management. Its two operating companies ? APL and APL Logistics ? both delivered better 2013 year-to-date performances at the Core EBIT level compared to the same period in 2012.
?This is one of the weakest peak seasons we have seen in recent years, characterised by depressed freight rates and industry over-capacity,? said NOL Group CEO Ng Yat Chung. ?Nevertheless, our business units delivered encouraging results. We improved our operational performance significantly from last year. Our focus on operational efficiencies is putting us in good stead for the long term.?
The Group?s Core EBIT in the third quarter of 2013 was US$22 million, compared to a Core EBIT of US$80 million in the same quarter a year ago. Its net earnings of US$20 million this quarter is down from the US$50 million recorded in 3Q 2012.
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30-Oct-2013 16:36 Neptune Orient L Rg   /   NOL       Go to Message
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NOL was down as long as the Europe recession. Given the signs of Europe recovery, NOL may well hitting the bottom now with upside looking brighter. Buy for the future.
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26-Oct-2013 14:30 Neptune Orient L Rg   /   NOL       Go to Message
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http://www.joc.com/maritime-news/international-freight-shipping

News relating to the import and export business, including customs, current economics and more.

DATA

Low Sulfur Bunker Fuel Prices Fall for Fourth Straight Week

High Sulfur Bunker Fuel Prices at 11-Week Low

OSCAR: FEU Availability Doubles in Kansas City

Container Volume Up at Top 10 China Ports in July

Low Sulfur Bunker Fuel Prices Dip Following Prior Week?s Climb

June Container Volume Falls at China's Port of Shanghai
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26-Oct-2013 14:05 Neptune Orient L Rg   /   NOL       Go to Message
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There is apprehension to the sustainability of the export growth and the recovery of Eurozone and hence the regional and global trade. I suppose the US Tapering will come when the US Fed assessed that the global trade is firmly on the road to recovery. I see that shipping lines may finally see the sunshine again. Good time to accumulate.

Singapore
SINGAPORE'S industrial production for September outstripped even the most bullish of market forecasts to grow 9.3 per cent from a year ago, on the back of a 20 per cent surge in electronics output and a busy time for rig- and ship-builders.
With this surprising burst of strength from the manufacturing sector, market economists, who had earlier wondered whether the government's 5.1 per cent flash estimate for Q3 GDP growth would be revised downwards next month, now believe that the economy may have grown as much as 5.4 per cent in the third quarter.
The latest industrial production index released by the Economic Development Board (EDB) yesterday posted its biggest rise since February 2012 - this, following a revised growth of 4 per cent year-on-year in August. Excluding the volatile biomedical sector, which grew just 0.1 per cent in September, industrial output expanded by an even larger 11.3 per cent year-on-year.
The median growth forecast of 5.7 per cent from the 17 economists polled by Bloomberg before EDB's release of the numbers thus underestimated actual growth by a wide margin. Even the most bullish forecast - Credit Suisse economist Michael Wan's 7.6 per cent growth estimate - was roundly beaten.
After adjusting for seasonal factors, manufacturing output rose 3.7 per cent month-on-month, said the EDB. This too, surpassed the median sequential growth estimate of 0.5 per cent from eight economists. Excluding the biomedical cluster, output would have grown 5.8 per cent from August.
Cumulative manufacturing output for the year thus far finally notched up growth, albeit just 0.2 per cent over the first nine months of last year. Much of manufacturing's expansion in September was powered by the electronics cluster, which shook off its tepid recovery to accelerate from 5.3 per cent year-on-year growth in August to 20 per cent in September.
This was the cluster's best showing since December 2010, noted UOB economist Alvin Liew.
Semiconductors, the largest electronics segment, grew 19.3 per cent year-on-year "on the back of improved export demand", the EDB said.
But Barclays economist Joey Chew found the sharp increase "mysterious", given that Singapore's electronics exports have experienced a fresh bout of weakness over the past three months. "Compounding the mystery, it was computer peripherals that did particularly well, growing 75.6 per cent. This is a relatively low value-added IT industry that has been in structural decline for some time now in Singapore, given rising costs and poor computer sales globally," she said.
Even so, electronics was not the sole reason for the improved manufacturing performance in September. "Most of the other clusters are experiencing a rebound simultaneously, broadening the growth base," said ANZ economist Daniel Wilson, who added that these sources of growth are also more durable.
The transport engineering cluster, another strong contributor, grew 14.4 per cent from a year ago. This was led by the marine-and-offshore engineering segment, which grew 17.7 per cent due to more activity in the rig-building and ship-building industries.
The aerospace segment grew 16.4 per cent, thanks to greater demand for aircraft repair jobs from the US and the Asia-Pacific, the EDB said.
Strong regional demand for chemicals and specialties output, and a bounce off a low base for the petroleum segment, drove the chemicals cluster to grow 5.8 per cent year-on-year. This cluster may be boosted over the next few months from ExxonMobil's new petrochemical cracker, said Mr Wan.
Factories churning out more construction supplies - concrete and cement products, metal doors, windows and grilles, metal tanks and containers - helped to raise the general manufacturing cluster's output by 2 per cent.
Biomedical manufacturing, usually responsible for swings in production, grew a marginal 0.1 per cent year-on-year the 0.8 per cent growth in pharmaceutical output was offset by a 3.2 per cent drop in medical technology production.
The only cluster that remained in contraction was precision engineering. Its output fell 0.8 per cent from a year ago, hit by weak demand for semiconductor-related equipment and mechanical engineering work.
Though the positive set of numbers comes amid an improving external environment, Citi's economists cautioned against "extrapolating the September outperformance into the months ahead", given that uncertainty still abounds.
Electronics, for one, is unlikely to sustain September's pace of growth through Q4, says Mr Wan, despite his bullish forecast.
And, in the view of Barclays' Ms Chew, the data for Q4 so far suggests that "a firm global recovery is more likely a 2014 story" too.
"Global manufacturing confidence likely flattened in October, based on flash PMI readings from the US, the euro area and China. The acceleration in growth momentum in Q3 appears to have stalled amid heightened uncertainty over the US fiscal and debt situation," she said.
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