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10-Sep-2014 11:57

STATS ChipPAC / STATSChP

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Repost missing image:

yingli ( Date: 10-Sep-2014 11:56) Posted:

2 weeks ago, I was reading Motley Fool (MF) article on StatsChip.

Link here http://www.fool.sg/2014/09/02/why-have-stats-chippac-ltd-fallen-by-11-5/

As usual, MF whacks any stock they dislike and make them sounded like worthless piece of paper. Disagreeing with their way of making decision (without valuation), I posted a reply challenging MF to do valuation before they call.

Two authors from MF gave the following respond:

Ser Jing Chong said that my assumptions are too aggressive, without stating his own assumption

Stanley posted another article trying to play down the importance of valuation using some ridiculous example.
Refer to stanley ridiculous article here: http://www.fool.sg/2014/09/03/the-danger-of-valuation-how-much-is-singapore-telecommunications-limited-really-worth/

Hopefully the M& A deal for statschip goes through........

Let see if I can wipe Motley Fool' s reputation once and for all.

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10-Sep-2014 11:56

STATS ChipPAC / STATSChP

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Ser Jing Chong said that my assumptions are too aggressive, without stating his own assumption

Stanley posted another article trying to play down the importance of valuation using some ridiculous example.
Refer to stanley ridiculous article here: http://www.fool.sg/2014/09/03/the-danger-of-valuation-how-much-is-singapore-telecommunications-limited-really-worth/

Hopefully the M& A deal for statschip goes through........

Let see if I can wipe Motley Fool' s reputation once and for all.

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09-Sep-2014 18:24

Yongnam / Yong nam

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Anyway I have no interest in this counter at the moment.

I will come back one year later after I liquidate other positions.

Meanwhile you can continue to maintain that optimistic belief of yours.

yingli ( Date: 09-Sep-2014 18:17) Posted:

Aiya, you happy can already lah.

wiseguy1269 ( Date: 09-Sep-2014 15:35) Posted:

Unlike you, I am gainfully and profitably employed and so do not have any inclination thus to be a troll in this forum.

Read and weep :

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09-Sep-2014 18:17

Yongnam / Yong nam

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Aiya, you happy can already lah.

wiseguy1269 ( Date: 09-Sep-2014 15:35) Posted:

Unlike you, I am gainfully and profitably employed and so do not have any inclination thus to be a troll in this forum.

Read and weep :D

yingli ( Date: 09-Sep-2014 14:54) Posted:

Better start worrying for YongNam.....20cents coming :p

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09-Sep-2014 14:54

Yongnam / Yong nam

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Better start worrying for YongNam.....20cents coming :p

wiseguy1269 ( Date: 09-Sep-2014 14:52) Posted:

Wonder why Rosesyrup aka yingli is so free? Has she been jobless all these 6 long months and so she is fruitlessly gloating at nothing in particular? Why does she keep changing nicks?

I really worry for our younger generation.

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09-Sep-2014 11:00

STATS ChipPAC / STATSChP

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CCBDavidChen ( Date: 09-Sep-2014 10:59) Posted:

knn tianji, this news out so many days ago. Got freshly baked ones or not? Lim peh waiting sideline.

tianji ( Date: 09-Sep-2014 10:56) Posted:

Stats Chippac was downgraded by Moody&rsquo s Investors Service
on Aug. 22 by one notch to Ba2, two steps below investment
grade. The decision was taken &ldquo in view of the slowing growth in
the high-end communications segment and muted demand from the
personal computer and consumer end-markets,&rdquo analysts led by
Annalisa Di Chiara said in a Aug. 28 report.
The company&rsquo s free cash flow is expected to remain negative
for the next two years, Moody&rsquo s said. Stats Chippac last
reported positive free cash flow in 2011, according to data

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09-Sep-2014 10:03

STATS ChipPAC / STATSChP

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Itchy finger added 13lots at 61 liao hehe

damnjian ( Date: 09-Sep-2014 09:51) Posted:

Quick buy!!!!! Sure make one!

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09-Sep-2014 09:44

STATS ChipPAC / STATSChP

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AHH, Statschip coming back to life

I don't want to wake up yet!

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08-Sep-2014 19:45

EuroSports Gbl / People Selling

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Repost....

I have no position in Eurosport liao.....just to remind potential speculators how much is this thing worth nia....

goodluck......

gaoshou ( Date: 28-Jan-2014 10:03) Posted:

Hope people heeded my advice and stay away from this counter.

Sport business is a very complicated one. The ones who list this kind of company trying to sabo investors. By shorting, I almost make 50% profit within 1-2weeks.

Looking forward to cover at 21cents.

All the best.

gaoshou ( Date: 17-Jan-2014 14:01) Posted:

Personally uncomfortable with sports counter. Have shorted BTW

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06-Sep-2014 11:00

GRC / OKH resume trading

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explosive2013 ( Date: 06-Sep-2014 10:53) Posted:

Alibaba may buy okh

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05-Sep-2014 21:55

Shen Yao / ThinkEnv name change to Liongold Corp

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investormind ( Date: 05-Sep-2014 18:31) Posted:

never drop further ler ... keep the dog and " fortunecat" first. : )

fortunecat ( Date: 04-Sep-2014 21:01) Posted:

So you sold your dog already? :

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05-Sep-2014 21:14

Keppel Reit / K-REIT

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For the past 1-2 years (in fact until now), we see alot of big name analysts (including Motley Fool) classifying all the REIT under a single asset class and value them using simple measures like P/NAV.........When the entire market ignore the huge difference in asset underlying every REIT, REIT with good assets like (Keppel reit) are undervalued while REIT with bad asset (like Accordia Golf trust) are overvalued............

But it seems like finally someone finally starts to realise the difference in underlying do make a huge difference to the value of each REIT. And that some one is GOLDMAN SACH! The following paragraphs are quoted from an article.

But Goldman Sachs noted that the second-quarter results were largely in line with the &ldquo central theme of strong office and weak retail/hotels&rdquo .

&ldquo While rising interest rates remain a concern, investors have been focused on whether organic fundamentals could offset rising rates,&rdquo it added.

Goldman also said Reits with overseas exposure have outperformed Singapore-based ones. &ldquo Of the top 10 Reits, only three are Singapore-centric, all with meaningful office exposure. Unsurprisingly, more Reits are now looking overseas for growth.&rdquo

- See more at: http://business.asiaone.com/news/new-developments-the-reit-direction#sthash.VJ7UdYna.dpuf

Rosesyrup ( Date: 10-Jan-2014 12:40) Posted:

Relax, Kreits are meant for longer term.

Now shorter term investors take on the following views=> > >

Reits yields are like bonds coupon rate, so Riet should fall like bonds when Interest is rising.
Kep Reit is higly leverage and should perform badly when % rise.

Well, I say relax. Those investors' concerns are understandable as Reits are relative new asset and their charateristics are largely unknown even to most expert.

Whether Reits perform like bonds or like shares, we shall see. :)

Sam1903 ( Date: 10-Jan-2014 12:31) Posted:

What happen to KepREIT ? stock price keep dropping recently comparing to other REIT...

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05-Sep-2014 21:03

Yongnam / Yong nam

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The following article is not from me, but it kind of support my point that Property market won' t recover any time soon. Look at the paragraph which I highlighted.

Before I graduated (roughly half a year ago), my equity analysis prof told the class that the properties close to the city heart will recover before the end of this year. I challenged and betted with him, whoever loses will pay for a meal for the entire class at four season hotel. Almost time to claim my spoil...:)

3 indications that show just how bad the Singapore residential property market is

By Getty Goh

In Jan 2014, I wrote about why this year could be turbulent for property market stakeholders. In the recent weeks, there were some reports on how quiet the high-end property market in Singapore is. A casual observer may think that this is just limited to the high-end sector in reality, the market malaise is probably more wide spread than what many people realise.

For those who are wondering just how bad the market is, here are 3 indicators to shed some light on the health of the Singapore residential property sector.

Indicator 1: The Property Price Index is on a downward trend

If you have been following the property market news, you would have read that the URA private property price index (PPPI) has been on a downward trend. But exactly how much has it dropped by and for how long?

Based on Figure 1, it can be seen that prices in the private property market, as a whole, have been dropping for 9 months (i.e. 3 quarters) and the total drop has been about 3%. While some may feel that a drop of 3% is not much, URA PPPI is only one indicator. To have a more complete picture, we should look at how much transaction volume has dropped by.

Figure 1: URA PPPI chart (2013Q1 to 2014Q2)

Duration	URA PPPI	% Change
2013Q1	213.2	-
2013Q2	215.4	1.0%
2013Q3	216.3	0.4%
2013Q4	214.3	-0.9%
2014Q1	211.6	-1.3%
2014Q2	209.4	-1.0%

Source: URA, Ascendant Assets Pte Ltd

Indicator 2: Significant drop in transaction volume

To give readers a sense of the transaction volume, a chart comparing the monthly changes between 2013 and 2014 is shown in Figure 2. Graphically, it can be seen that in some months, transaction volume in 2014 is less than half what it was for the same month a year ago.

Figure 2: Transaction volume comparison

Source: URA, Ascendant Assets Pte Ltd

Collectively, there were a total of 19,531 private property transactions from Jan 2013 to Aug 2013. In comparison, there were only 8,532 for the same period in 2014, which works out to be a drop of more then 56%.

Indication 3: Number of unsold units is increasing

Some readers may argue that low transaction volume may not be representative of a lacklustre market, as there may not be that many units on sale to begin with. However, when we look at the number of unsold units in the market, it is observed to be increasing.

Based on URA&rsquo s data, it can be seen that the number of private residential units (including EC) under construction that were launched and remain unsold is on an upward trend (see Figure 3). As at 2014Q2, there were more than 6,300 units still left unsold. With more new developments coming on line in the next few quarters, this figure looks set to increase.

Figure 3:Private Residential and Executive Condominium Units Under Construction with Pre-requisites for Sale and are Launched but Unsold

Source: URA, Ascendant Assets Pte Ltd

Conclusion

In conclusion, we are still in early days and the lacklustre market is expected to last for some time. Hence you may want to maintain a healthy dose of scepticism whenever you hear anyone who tries to present the property market in a promising light.

Even the Minister for National Development, Mr Khaw Boon Wan also recently commented that the property cooling measures are here to stay, hence it is quite unlikely that the property market will pick up in the near term.

For those who are looking to buy a property, perhaps you will start to see some good deals coming on line in the next few months. As for those who have over invested, you should be mentally prepared that the situation will only get worse before it gets better. And when we will reach the end of the tunnel is anyone&rsquo s guess.

Mr Getty Goh has a Masters in Real Estate from the National University of Singapore (NUS) and he is the CEO of CoAssets.com, South East Asia&rsquo s first crowdfunding website. Mr Goh is also a director with Ascendant Assets Pte Ltd, a real estate research consultancy and think tank. The views expressed are his own.

yingli ( Date: 28-Aug-2014 22:46) Posted:

For the last two months whenever I flip open the newspaper, I read many " experts" giving their forecasts and predictions on how low Singapore property price will go before rebouncing. But the question on local property market isn' t about WHAT(price), it is more about WHEN.

We got to understand:

Local property prices are falling due to gov not removing the cooling measure.
Those measures are not meant to lower property prices to a specific level (if that was the case, those analysts' attempt on predicting " how low price would get" would be appropriate)
Rather Gov kept those cooling measures on because it is worried that the low interest rate level (which depends mainly on Fed and not under the control of MAS) will spur irration speculation and ultimate property bubble.
Understanding Point 3, means that Gov will only remove cooling measures (and therefore property price will only rise) only when interest starts rising.
Simply put, those experts' predictions on WHAT PRICE are basically irrelevant.
A better prediction would be on when will interest rate start rising.
Lastest minute on Fed' s meeting in Jackson Hole already revealed that the US only plan to raise rate earliest by end of 2015.
So conclusion=====> > > > > Enter properties and construction related counters at (or 1-2months before) Dec 2015 to catch the bottom out in the property market.

spore1 ( Date: 28-Aug-2014 22:19) Posted:

20 cents think can consider to accumulate

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05-Sep-2014 18:09

STATS ChipPAC / STATSChP

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Relax watch movie nia

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05-Sep-2014 14:30

STATS ChipPAC / STATSChP

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05-Sep-2014 13:02

STATS ChipPAC / STATSChP

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lol

better limit how much egg you put into one basket.

Too risky to throw everything in. Afterall no gurantee the deal will go through.

tianji ( Date: 05-Sep-2014 12:59) Posted:

Please help to buy up guys......

foucs69 ( Date: 05-Sep-2014 12:50) Posted:

wow bro u bought high px last Friday chiong time ah............

so later gonna throw down?

2000 lots..........woo we will see the show later

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05-Sep-2014 00:14

Sheng Siong / Sheng Siong

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Haha Bro Qanghoo,

What I meant was if those capital weren' t used in China JV, it could have been used to fund future expansion in Singapore instead of having to raise new fund.

But I guess your interpretation of counter asset light trend works also.

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04-Sep-2014 22:43

Shen Yao / ThinkEnv name change to Liongold Corp

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cccx123 ( Date: 04-Sep-2014 22:41) Posted:

Most likely sold liao. Now waiting for someone to buy his cat. Maybe it'll be a "fortunecat" LOL

fortunecat ( Date: 04-Sep-2014 21:01) Posted:

So you sold your dog already? :

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04-Sep-2014 22:39

Sheng Siong / Sheng Siong

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his is not the first time SS made such strategic mistake.

The following extract is quoted from an analysis I posted on ShareJunction, one year ago (02 Aug 2013). It explains why SS made bad decisions and shareholders can expect SS to continue making more strategic mistake in the futue.

" Change In Management (I might be wrong about this point): Members of the management team in SS are mostly made up of the founding father' s family members. This gave rise to some kind of nepotism where the decision makers might not be the best and most capable. At least, the founding father, Lim Hock Chee remain to occupy the most powerful and important position in the firm. One need to understand that the founding father not necessary has the skills and experience require to manage the now much larger and complex company, and take it to greater height. This is true for many startups, though painful, it is a delimma between CASH AND KING Thus for SS, the resulting poor management decision making can be seen from cases such as buying 5 wet markets that can' t be converted into supermarket, and the poor strategic decision to operate 24hours. It is advisable that SS start bringing in professional managers to its top management office. Otherwise more costly problems would be expected to set in as the business grow more complicated and goes outside the expertise of the current management."

Rosesyrup
Master

Posted: 02-Aug-2013 02:42

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The Cost Leader Who Forgets About His Cost

The reason that Sheng Shiong (SS) has such large scale of operation right now is that it managed to find and exploit the gap between NTUC and One-Dollar shops. Throughout the years, SS had been mindful of its cost and was able to transfer the cost saving to its customers. The cost saving capability thus becomes SS' s competitive advantage that enable it to rout stronger competitors like Shop N Save. However, in recent SS appeared to have lost sight of the engine it depends on to propell its growth. In this report, I will attempt to explain what SS should not have and should have done, which might threaten its fundmental.

Should Not Have Done

24 Hours Operation: In the bid to remain " competitive" , SS followed NTUC' s strategy of operating 24hours stores. However, this would prove to be a deadly mistake. With the little passenger traffic, low products' contribution margin, high overhead cost (due to SS large store front) and high labor cost (SS is a labor intensive firm), the cost of operating in the night can hardly justify the revenue. The only reason why 7 Eleven could run such 24 hours operation is due to its much smaller store, high contribution margin (The same products cost a lot more in 7 Eleven), and low labor cost (store manned by one staff). Moving back to SS, the losses from night operation has got much deeper implication. The huge losses from serving small amount of customers in the night will now be transferred to the majority of customers who do not make use of the night service through higher product prices. This reduced SS' s competitiveness. SS would be better off by giving NTUC the night market which is loss making.
E-Grocery: E-Grocery has been pretty successful in large countries like US where population is scatter across the land. The story is quite different for Singapore which has uniquely small landscape and numerous high rise flats, nearly every family has access to a supermarket which is just a stone throw away from their block. This makes E-Grocery hardly necessary. Furthermore, the higher products' price in E-Grocery is targeted at a higher end customers who are very different from SS' s current penny pinching customers.
However, do note that I am not trying to imply that SS should not go into E-Grocery at all. It is just that the time isn' t ripe. SS could have better invest its capital on fine tuning many parts of its operation- which will be discussed in the SHOULD HAVE DONE part. The result of fine tuning would have increase SS efficient and enable it to better compete with the first movers-e.g. red marts. Simply put, the strategy is to let NTUC engage in a costly competition with the first movers first, meanwhile SS focus on improving its physical distribution and go in later. Afterall, the first mover has the advantage of doing away their overhead cost.
Mandai Link Distribution Centre: SS invested 65millions in this warehouse will lead to higher fixed cost and higher break even point. SS could have first rent a warehouse while continue to explore the option of cross-docking. This will remove the need of purchase expensive property on Singapore scarced land, and reduce its manpower which is another expensive resources in Singapore.

Should Have Done

If you are thinking about Walmart now, you are right. The history of Walmart provide many important learning points and guidelines for SS in its quest toward dominance of Singapore market.

Invest In Better IT System: SS lack of good IT support is especially evident in its outlet stockpile. It is not rare to: pick up expired products, hear employees complaining about overordering goods that are not selling and not ordering goods that are lacking. Just look up ontop of SS' s shelves, the large number of boxes stacked on the shelves are the amount of goods that the employees overordered. All these point to the fact that SS is lacking an IT system that keep track of its goods and is therefore unable to make informed decision. A good item system that is able predict demand and make informed ordering should help SS to reduce unnecessary inventory level (wastage), and free up space in the store which will replace the need of a warehouse.
Setting Up Self Service Cashiers: These would reduce SS reliance on its massive manpower. Currently, much of the staff in SS stores are Malaysian workers.This is expected to increasing eat into SS profit as government continues to increase foreign levy. Just a little sidetrack, if you ever see a SS' s staff standing infront of the store exit, he is not ideling- he is there to make sure there is no shoplifting going on. Assuming that the pay of that SS staff is $7 per hour, it would only make sense if SS starts losing a 5kg pack of rice (worth around $7) to shoplifting per hour. During peak hours, you can ever see more than one of these " security guards" . Reliance on security camera would make much more economic sense. Anyway, instead of reining in its staff cost, SS is still continuing its aggressive employment policy- overstaffing is what might follow.
Change In Management (I might be wrong about this point): Members of the management team in SS are mostly made up of the founding father' s family members. This gave rise to some kind of nepotism where the decision makers might not be the best and most capable. At least, the founding father, Lim Hock Chee remain to occupy the most powerful and important position in the firm. One need to understand that the founding father not necessary has the skills and experience require to manage the now much larger and complex company, and take it to greater height. This is true for many startups, though painful, it is a delimma between CASH AND KING Thus for SS, the resulting poor management decision making can be seen from cases such as buying 5 wet markets that can' t be converted into supermarket, and the poor strategic decision to operate 24hours. It is advisable that SS start bringing in professional managers to its top management office. Otherwise more costly problems would be expected to set in as the business grow more complicated and goes outside the expertise of the current management.

In a nutshell, instead of engaging in costly battle for new markets, SS should focus on streamlining it current distribution network and aim to replace NTUC as Singapore top retailer. However, should SS continue its current stratgey that stray away from its original customer group, it will soon loses it competitive advantage. The resulting sign of SS failing would then be expected to surface in 2 years time, when economy growth is strong and consumers are turning away from basic products sold by SS.

Based on the above forecast and the expectation that management would not made much changes from its current strategy, I have assigned SS a TP of 58cents.

Just sharing my view here, email me rosesyrup123@yahoo.com if you have something to share with me. Thanks.

Author: Rosesyrup

Disclaimer:

The following analysis is purely my personal opinion. I urge you to do your own assessment and calculation for any relevant decision making purposes.
The analysis is based purely on consideration of the company' s financial and economic interest.

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04-Sep-2014 22:25

Sheng Siong / Sheng Siong

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Read Motley Fool Article: http://www.fool.sg/2014/09/04/why-has-sheng-siong-group-ltd-fallen-by-5-6-today/

I think Motley Fool is quite good in articulating SS' s strategic mistake.

Any, I don' t have any position on this one. I just speaking from business strategy point of view.

yingli ( Date: 04-Sep-2014 22:23) Posted:

Nothing wrong with placement which is only to support SS' s China' s ambition.

The decision to expand into China will prove to be a fatal one.

SS is competing as cost leader in Singapore and has yet to gain an upper hand against its main rival, NTUC. If the investment in China failed, it would incur huge cost for SS and possibly affect SS competitive position in the home market. A very risky move indeed.

With a fragmented market served mainly by family owned provision shops, Malaysia seems to be a better choice for SS.

ash902 ( Date: 04-Sep-2014 22:14) Posted:

why is placement a wrong move?

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