ShareJunction - Member Posts

x 0

reposted

investor999 ( Date: 01-Aug-2020 16:38) Posted:

Alot of vaccine are in phase three trials. We should be getting an interim report in a few months.
Current results are promising.
We should see some government support in our airline sector
Many open shorts at 3.41 and 3.42 and looking at covering at 3.29 and below
Last massive selling on 30 July 2020 was mainly due to CIMB who changed from accumulate to hold. Other major Banks have already sold at higher levels
Monday' s selling will only be forced selling - not much looking as the negativity in recent months. There should not be huge positions
30 July 2020 trades was a false bear breakout. If Monday opens at 3.50, this is confirmed.
If opens lower, we looking at new lows around 3.28 and closing higher on short coverage

Cheers

GoldNugget ( Date: 01-Aug-2020 16:20) Posted:

Personal call, don' t buy SIA even at 3 dollars. There will be for sure another round of capital call or rights issue.
The current situation will mean they will not be profitable this year.
Neither will they be profitable until the end of next year.

SIA needs a load factor of 70% to be profitable. Not to mention business travelers who paid for the business and first-class are not even flying now.

x 0

So why are you here? Come back 3 months later

ss2017. ( Date: 02-Aug-2020 18:32) Posted:

Just wait for three months you would know the true value of SIA, very straight forward, just wait.

x 0

Be careful with AAPL..Its too expensive..I am worried it has reached it peak. I don't buy the talk that splitting so that small investors can buy. Let me give you my experience with RMG shares. It was $5 then it split..After that it just stagnant. I am still holding RMG shares pre split. Only bought few months ago to average down. But RMG at $1 is very difficult to recover

SQueeze ( Date: 02-Aug-2020 11:33) Posted:

Yup. In April/May, i thought things would recover lots better by end year. It is obviously not the case.
better confront reality and not be in denial.
I bought into Delta and sold at a loss recently. That' s actually better prospect than SIA because they have a big domestic market and those angmohs couldn' t care less about Covid and would still travel.
Sold the Delta and bought into APPL and we had 10% up last Friday with APPL. Delta down some more below my selling price.

I am still holding SIA MCB. Wait 10 years lah. Should be ok. If Above $2.67 that time, i am still ok. A bit regret buying into it, but there is still time. Not going to watch / look into it until 2028!
i still believe SQ will survive but they should do something about it now before it' s too late.

limjoeseph ( Date: 02-Aug-2020 09:57) Posted:

investments are not for the faint hearted.
There are winners and lossess.
Cut lossess when wrong and ride with the winners.
No point being in denial mode.
Better to take bitter medicine and no point trying to talk the mkt up.
There are better sector mkts whereby one can park their money for a rally like selected health care and technological stocks even in overall bear cycles.
Unless you are a very long term investor, then hold on to your long SIA as you can can ride out the pandemic storm.
For now, I am out of SIA for good.
Looking at other counters!!!
All the best to existing SIA shareholders!!!

x 0

I don't how you see these aeroplanes and assets as aluminium and metals. Even primary school kids also know they are aeroplanes

laksaman57 ( Date: 02-Aug-2020 10:56) Posted:

A business with plenty of aluminium parked at the airport and huge manpower sitting at home/hangars can still worth $3. Amazing

x 0

The foreign banks might have sold all they have. Retail investors are main holders of the floated shares. The selling now are going to be from retail investors

investor999 ( Date: 02-Aug-2020 08:19) Posted:

You are saying the cheapest possible price for SIA is 3.405.

I disagree as I think the cheapest possible price is 3.00. The reason being averaging of cost.

CIMB took up the rights paying $3. If they bought extra rights from open market and combined with their mother shares, their average cost will be $3.80 and below ( depending on their purchase rights price). They sold down all the way from $4.38 until almost their cost price. Then they started accumulating from 3.72 and below but dumped everything collected last Friday. The losses compensated by the gains they made earlier.

So what they have now are SIA share price at $3

MichaelSchenker ( Date: 02-Aug-2020 02:54) Posted:

No, I don' t think it is attractive at all. Those who are entitled to free Rights actually paid much more for their mother shares, and knowing excess Rights, they will usually not distribute much, usually to round up odd lots.

That is why, during a Rights exercise, best approach is to Sell away the mother shares as soon as possible. If you don' t own the shares, never buy the shares CR, always try buying to Rights off the market to be converted if you want to own the shares eventually.

As for SIA, the lowest possible shares held should be at 3.405, 0.405 being the cheapest Rights traded. It happened on the penultimate day of Rights trading

x 0

Isn' t this when you should be buying shares? You people always choose to buy the favourite stocks.

When the market crashes these are the stocks that will be sold down the most

JerryMaple ( Date: 01-Aug-2020 21:02) Posted:

I know you love SIA stocks and Sg.. But sometimes you got to be realistic, u keep comparing the history.. Do you know that last time there are no budget airlines? Do you know that SIA buyover tiger airline which renamed as Scott and is doing very badly thereafter? Tiger airline used to be ok but after took over by SIA it is........ If you just buy to support then I am ok with your comments.. If you keep deceiving yourself by saying it will go back to it's glorious day then good luck to you.. Frankly speaking, you are the only one still thinking the situation is ok.. Most of the shareholders sucking their thumb now... Doydd..

investor999 ( Date: 01-Aug-2020 18:45) Posted:

SIA IPO in 1985 one month after Pan EL crisis..It was traded below $5 but rosed to $9.60 the following year. Since when did the $2.31 happen on 30 June 1986. Wah you are talking about stock price 34 years ago. Might as well talk about the Dow Jones index 30 years ag

x 0

I read many people feel the stock market is going to crash. That means Monday we may say broad base selling.

x 0

You are saying the cheapest possible price for SIA is 3.405.

I disagree as I think the cheapest possible price is 3.00. The reason being averaging of cost.

CIMB took up the rights paying $3. If they bought extra rights from open market and combined with their mother shares, their average cost will be $3.80 and below ( depending on their purchase rights price). They sold down all the way from $4.38 until almost their cost price. Then they started accumulating from 3.72 and below but dumped everything collected last Friday. The losses compensated by the gains they made earlier.

So what they have now are SIA share price at $3

MichaelSchenker ( Date: 02-Aug-2020 02:54) Posted:

No, I don' t think it is attractive at all. Those who are entitled to free Rights actually paid much more for their mother shares, and knowing excess Rights, they will usually not distribute much, usually to round up odd lots.

That is why, during a Rights exercise, best approach is to Sell away the mother shares as soon as possible. If you don' t own the shares, never buy the shares CR, always try buying to Rights off the market to be converted if you want to own the shares eventually.

As for SIA, the lowest possible shares held should be at 3.405, 0.405 being the cheapest Rights traded. It happened on the penultimate day of Rights trading.

investor999 ( Date: 01-Aug-2020 18:20) Posted:

The lowest price of rights traded stripped of the mother shares was 0.41. Any selling below that belongs to investors who took up free rights. That is why it is attractive to pick up these "free rights"

x 0

SIA IPO in 1985 one month after Pan EL crisis..It was traded below $5 but rosed to $9.60 the following year. Since when did the $2.31 happen on 30 June 1986. Wah you are talking about stock price 34 years ago. Might as well talk about the Dow Jones index 30 years ago

limjoeseph ( Date: 01-Aug-2020 17:46) Posted:

All time low for SIA was $2.31 in 30 June 1986.
All medium to long term technicals already broken down and as long civid 29 dows not dissipate, no recovery in anyline stocks anytime soon.
Seems Covid 19 is mirroring Spanish Flu which which started in February 1918 and dissipated globally in April 2020.
In US, minimum 657K deaths reported.
In US, deaths already more than 150K and still climbing and will be worse into fall and wintering period towards year end.
Vaccines take time to be approved and so far early release probably 1st half next year.
I have already cut lossess on my vested interest at 3.65 last week.
To those mkt particpants who think SIA is low enough to buy, I wish them good luck because there are other potential shares to make money from in the shares mkt.
Why do you think the share guru, Warren Buffet cut lossess on all his airline stocks having lost US$54 Billion?
Think?
Because he feels there are other potential stocks to buy.
I can only suggest if any of you are interested in a medium term strategy to hold until 1st half June 2021, is Sri Trang Agro which is extremely undervalued as this company is a rubber and gloves play company. STA for 1st quarters will enjoy 100% earnings from their gloves division and 56% thereafter from spinning off to STGT, their gloves division from 3rd quarters earnings report thereafter.
My outperform recommendation is to buy on Monday Thai Baht any price below 25.25 with a target objective of 73 Baht within 1st half June 2021, medium term.
STA has spun off its gloves division with an IPO on 2 July 2020 with the new company STGT which has book orders until 1st half June 2021 reflecting strong demand from the impact of covid 19.
2nd quarters result is expected to exceed 1st quarter results of 845 Million Baht on results release on 14 August with above 1.2 Billion Baht potential profits.
Alternatively you buy STA Sing which closed at $1.31 Sing on Thursday with a TP within 1st half June 2021 at $3.22 basis Fibonacci Extension of 1.618%.
As an international rubber dealer with vested interest in STA, I can say that the rubber market is poised for a basing out this year with TSR 20 Socom being well supported at $1060 per ton.
Please do your due diligence accordingly.
Lets HUAT together.

x 0

The lowest price of rights traded stripped of the mother shares was 0.41. Any selling below that belongs to investors who took up free rights. That is why it is attractive to pick up these "free rights"

x 0

Temasek wouldn't inject capital. They only need to buy up shares below $3 , which was what they supposed to do at the beginning if investors throw their rights..Throwing shares at $3 is the same as throwing the original rights

investor999 ( Date: 01-Aug-2020 18:14) Posted:

Share dilution is not true. This only happens if more rights are issued..SIA can issue more MCB, not rights issue..So we talk about rights issue. MCB issue is possible..The deal will be more attractive given the current low price..Guaranteed returns over 10 years. Better than any endowment plans.

So if there is not dilution we don't talk about below $3

GoldNugget ( Date: 01-Aug-2020 17:48) Posted:

The government support part is true. Temesk is doing NS, making sure SIA doesnt bankrupt. But they are doing this via capital inject and under writing these capital injections.
In so doing they are diluting minority share owners ownership. it doesnt change the fact that SIA is bleeding everyday and the capital injection is just to make sure there is enough capital so that the bleeding can happen without causing bankruptcy.

So buying SIA bond makes sense. Becasue bankrupty wont happen. Stock purchase have to wait

x 0

Share dilution is not true. This only happens if more rights are issued..SIA can issue more MCB, not rights issue..So we talk about rights issue. MCB issue is possible..The deal will be more attractive given the current low price..Guaranteed returns over 10 years. Better than any endowment plans.

So if there is not dilution we don't talk about below $3

GoldNugget ( Date: 01-Aug-2020 17:48) Posted:

The government support part is true. Temesk is doing NS, making sure SIA doesnt bankrupt. But they are doing this via capital inject and under writing these capital injections.
In so doing they are diluting minority share owners ownership. it doesnt change the fact that SIA is bleeding everyday and the capital injection is just to make sure there is enough capital so that the bleeding can happen without causing bankruptcy.

So buying SIA bond makes sense. Becasue bankrupty wont happen. Stock purchase have to wait,

investor999 ( Date: 01-Aug-2020 16:38) Posted:

Alot of vaccine are in phase three trials. We should be getting an interim report in a few months.
Current results are promising.
We should see some government support in our airline sector
Many open shorts at 3.41 and 3.42 and looking at covering at 3.29 and below
Last massive selling on 30 July 2020 was mainly due to CIMB who changed from accumulate to hold. Other major Banks have already sold at higher levels
Monday' s selling will only be forced selling - not much looking as the negativity in recent months. There should not be huge positions
30 July 2020 trades was a false bear breakout. If Monday opens at 3.50, this is confirmed.
If opens lower, we looking at new lows around 3.28 and closing higher on short coverage

Cheer

x 0

Alot of vaccine are in phase three trials. We should be getting an interim report in a few months.
Current results are promising.
We should see some government support in our airline sector
Many open shorts at 3.41 and 3.42 and looking at covering at 3.29 and below
Last massive selling on 30 July 2020 was mainly due to CIMB who changed from accumulate to hold. Other major Banks have already sold at higher levels
Monday' s selling will only be forced selling - not much looking as the negativity in recent months. There should not be huge positions
30 July 2020 trades was a false bear breakout. If Monday opens at 3.50, this is confirmed.
If opens lower, we looking at new lows around 3.28 and closing higher on short coverage

Cheers

GoldNugget ( Date: 01-Aug-2020 16:20) Posted:

Personal call, don' t buy SIA even at 3 dollars. There will be for sure another round of capital call or rights issue.
The current situation will mean they will not be profitable this year.
Neither will they be profitable until the end of next year.

SIA needs a load factor of 70% to be profitable. Not to mention business travelers who paid for the business and first-class are not even flying now.

x 0

My personal buy call for SIA

Accumulate $3.50 and below

Target $3.80

x 0

You made the correct choice to buy the MCB..Some investors might have sold to you to support the main share, which did not seem the correct decision on hind sight.

uiop1223 ( Date: 31-Jul-2020 14:18) Posted:

U guys still dont get it. Govt will not let it collapse but it doesnt mean share price will be supported. Understand? Or still dont understand? No wonder CCS says singaporeans are suckers. Got investor999 & KiasiGuy. 🙋 🏻 🙋 🏻 Go guys, raise your hands

x 0

Be careful..There may seems bearish breakout coming. That is because CIMB made a wrong bet and turned around. Have to wait for Monday to see if the breakout is real or fake

uiop1223 ( Date: 31-Jul-2020 14:18) Posted:

U guys still dont get it. Govt will not let it collapse but it doesnt mean share price will be supported. Understand? Or still dont understand? No wonder CCS says singaporeans are suckers. Got investor999 & KiasiGuy. 🙋 🏻 🙋 🏻 Go guys, raise your hands

x 1

x 0

Everything is so clear but people choose to be influenced by all these talks. FACTS 1) SIA will survive the pandemic because it is important for Singapore. 2) Majority shareholder is Temasek..It had the option to pick up rights that were not taken up by other shareholders..They did not have to pick up the rights as all were fully subscribed. This option should remain open for Temasek to buy up all SIA shares from $3 and below. You want to buy at $2??? $1.5 ??? 3) There are many interested parties ( shareholders)..Liquidity is huge. It is very easy to move the share price as no borrowing of shares is necessary. When you see 20 millions traded, it was only due to switching of shares from one side to the other. Shareholders can be long and short at the same time. 4) Share financing is ranging from 50% to 80%..Margin financing and CFD very susceptible to huge price changes..Hence there is always margin calls. 5) As the price goes lower and lower more and more people are trapped but this also means the shares are getting very well distributed. 6) Most important of all: Don't underestimate the financial power of ordinary Singaporeans..Millions of dollars not a problem. WHATEVER YOU DO, DON'T GET CAUGHT ON THE WRONG SIDE

uiop1223 ( Date: 31-Jul-2020 14:18) Posted:

U guys still dont get it. Govt will not let it collapse but it doesnt mean share price will be supported. Understand? Or still dont understand? No wonder CCS says singaporeans are suckers. Got investor999 & KiasiGuy. 🙋 🏻 🙋 🏻 Go guys, raise your hands

x 0

In case you are wondering, I am still buying and will continue to average down.

Well at least I am not making money from people who cut loss and made losses of 30K to 100 K

Your losses have gone to you people who the shares down.

I don' t like to these blood monies

uiop1223 ( Date: 31-Jul-2020 10:52) Posted:

Very good for shortlists 😁 🥳 🥳 🥳

Wheres Investor999?

des_khor ( Date: 31-Jul-2020 10:35) Posted:

Why no retrenchment ah ? NS ?? Really bad for public shareholders ...

x 0

Why are you looking for me?

This forum is useless

x 0

BEFORE YOU SHORT SELL YOU MUST PREDICT WHO IS GOING TO SELL TO YOU TO COVER YOUR SHORTS. The short seller who shorted Wirecard because somehow the fraud was found out and price plunged. We are talking about major shareholders selling..Not this situation. The charts can be misleading Take care

uiop1223 ( Date: 29-Jul-2020 20:27) Posted:

Tml u can get them at 3.5 to 3.3

investor999 ( Date: 29-Jul-2020 20:07) Posted:

yes I am buying and I will buy at 3.5 ot 3.4 or 3.3 over the next few sessions