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Petrobras further delays FPSO bid submissions

Deadline for P-81 bids pushed back until the end of March as contractors request more time

2 March 2022 3:01 GMT UPDATED 2 March 2022 3:01 GMT

Most yards, except Sembmarine, simply do have the bandwidth to take on anymore mega offshore projects now after gobbling too much at no margin last year. Suffering from indigestion and severe case of diarrhea....

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02-Mar-2022 17:16

Seatrium / Sembmarine_Green is the new gold_a better future

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Brent crude @ $111

most offshore oil projects just need $60 oil to be sanctioned.

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02-Mar-2022 17:13

Seatrium / Sembmarine_Green is the new gold_a better future

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Yup, but they are very low down the hierarchy and likely have no visibility of the BB/ Shortist' s intention or position. Likely the runners of the runner of the runner of the Shortist.

dcproperty ( Date: 02-Mar-2022 17:04) Posted:

I strongly believe that they are working for BBs. They are here to suppress the market. They don' t hold short positions. They are slowing accumulating SM.

MANFREDTMK ( Date: 02-Mar-2022 16:50) Posted:

From March 2 onwards, we may not able to hear from them anymore when SuperMan quietly take off. Treasure all the moments while they are still around

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02-Mar-2022 17:04

Seatrium / Sembmarine_Green is the new gold_a better future

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Petrobras further delays FPSO bid submissions

Deadline for P-81 bids pushed back until the end of March as contractors request more time

2 March 2022 3:01 GMT UPDATED 2 March 2022 3:01 GMT

Most yards, except Sembmarine, simply do have the bandwidth to take on anymore mega offshore projects now after gobbling too much at no margin last year. Suffering from digestion and diarthea....

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02-Mar-2022 16:52

Seatrium / Sembmarine_Green is the new gold_a better future

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In the next month or so, wait for delivery news on Ropax, Johan, Hornsea, Titan and Karmol.

After that, wait for contract announcement on Napant, Darodo, Cambo, Crux, P80 and the 2 Setes drillships.

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02-Mar-2022 16:43

Seatrium / Sembmarine_Green is the new gold_a better future

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Most offshore projects secured by yards in 2021, including P78 won by the Keppel OM/ Hyundai Heavy consortium, are not going to be profitable as a result of rising cost.

Sembmarine won quite a few contracts in 2019 which have kept them busy till 2022, so no need to win anything last year when the contract terms were not favourable. For example, Saipem and Sapura Energy (go goggle them) gobbled up many projects last 2 years at no margin or negative margin and they are now going bust. Sembmarine, on the other hand, which has the liquidity to take on mega projects this year will be in a strategically advantageous position to lock in much more favourable contract terms and good margin.

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02-Mar-2022 16:36

Seatrium / Sembmarine_Green is the new gold_a better future

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It is best not to take over Keppel OM' s projects post merger because most of them are not profitable...to booster their bargaining power for the merger, Keppel OM had gobbled up quite a few low or no margin jobs to increase their top line.

For example, they won P78 at USD2.3 billion with consortium partner Hyundai Heavy. The next lowest bidder was actually USD2.8 billion. All margin is literally wiped out plus more. Keppel OM order book should be $4.3 billion rather than $6.1 billion reported as $1.8 billion should have gone to Hyundai Heavy for building the P78 Hull. They just double count the revenue to increase their bargaining power. But Temasek could easily see through Loh Chin Hua' s bag of tricks.

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02-Mar-2022 14:17

Seatrium / Sembmarine_Green is the new gold_a better future

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Brent crude @ $109.

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02-Mar-2022 12:06

Seatrium / Sembmarine_Green is the new gold_a better future

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The main reason that this baby is not trading at much higher is because some Wall Street shark is holding a 1-2 billion shares short position via borrowed scripts from bvrokers/ bank trust service.

For example, if a fund manager or institution bought SCM shares, their shares scripts will be deposited with the brokers or bank trust service, who could lend the scripts out with a fee to proprietary traders from Goldman Sach and JP Morgan to sell. Just like SPH shares which were heavily shorted previously, these proprietary traders or hedge funds or whoiever, will have to return the borrowed scripts by buying from the open market.

There is significant support for SCM. Excluding Temasek, minority shareholders contributed about $600 to SCM' s coffer in the recent rights issue. These SCM supporters, some with very deep pockets as well, are just bidding their time to attack the Shortist when the news flow turn sharply positive. Short covering rallies are the most spectacular.

PHInsider63 ( Date: 02-Mar-2022 09:32) Posted:

The three possibilities why SM is not moving are:

1. Pending contract announcement
2. BB has not collected enough
3. Flushing is still in the process

Else, the price movement remains a modern day unsolved mystery.

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02-Mar-2022 11:54

Seatrium / Sembmarine_Green is the new gold_a better future

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Yup, thanks for filling in the details. I benefited a little....bought SPH at $1.03 but sold it way too early.

dlim888 ( Date: 02-Mar-2022 11:25) Posted:

To explain as to why another Temasek consortion threw in another bid for SPH - against Keppel which Temasek also has a stake
The alternative bid has partnership companies controlled by OBS HPL holding 40% , while CapitaLand and Mapletree owning 30% each - Temasek in turn owns 52% Capitaland and the entirety of Mapletree. Temasek walked away from the $4.1b bid to take partial control of Keppel in 10 Aug 2020 and now owns only about 20% of Keppel - they dont have full control of Keppel at all . Further more SPH has alot of valuable property assets which they do not want Keppel to take over with just 20% stake. Yes Better is right - SM and Keppel OM merger negotiation will largely be berween Keppel Management and Temasek/SM as they have full control of SM

pocketoppo ( Date: 02-Mar-2022 10:23) Posted:

actually, i don' t quite understand. in sph deal, wasn' t kep and another consortium belong to Temasek? why need another consortium then. it might only show that Temasek wasn' t happy with kep?
if it is so, people keep saying kep is having the upper hand on sc-kep merging, is not valid then. that means sc will benefit from sc-kep merging deal. correct me if i am wrong. thank you

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02-Mar-2022 10:27

Seatrium / Sembmarine_Green is the new gold_a better future

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Yes you are rigtht. That' s whyTemasek pulled out of the $4 billion dollars Keppel buyout at $7 awhile back.

So the Keppel OM and SCM merger is Temasek vs KC on the negotiating table.

pocketoppo ( Date: 02-Mar-2022 10:23) Posted:

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02-Mar-2022 10:12

Seatrium / Sembmarine_Green is the new gold_a better future

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2021 Financial results Keppel OM- $414 mil net loss Sembmarine- $332 mil net loss Keppel OM is valued at below zero in KC'S book Ho figure. KC I'd bargaining with Temasek for the merger terms. SCM met could not be bothered. If I recall correctly, KC lost the SPH deal to Temasek led consortium.

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01-Mar-2022 11:56

Seatrium / Sembmarine_Green is the new gold_a better future

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Yup, just like SCI long time shareholders had to endure an excruciating 6 years drop from $5+ (2014) to $1+ (2020) before they started seeing some light.

The rise of Sembmarine from the ashes will be far more spectacular.

MANFREDTMK ( Date: 01-Mar-2022 11:35) Posted:

And the redemptive value comes from entering now

MANFREDTMK ( Date: 01-Mar-2022 11:33) Posted:

Because SM is the unsung hero, bailing out SCI and the next mission, Keppel Corp. No, minority shareholders are the unsung heroes. However, some said Suffering has Redemptive value 😭 😭 😭

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28-Feb-2022 20:28

Seatrium / Sembmarine_Green is the new gold_a better future

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Sounds about right.

pkli899 ( Date: 28-Feb-2022 19:13) Posted:

Haha, maybe he trying to say next year can see 4-5 cents...............dividend.

better ( Date: 28-Feb-2022 17:23) Posted:

Can you be more specific when I can see 4 cents? Is it tomo, next week, next month, next year or next decade?

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28-Feb-2022 17:23

Seatrium / Sembmarine_Green is the new gold_a better future

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Can you be more specific when I can see 4 cents? Is it tomo, next week, next month, next year or next decade??

chart_expert123 ( Date: 24-Feb-2022 13:51) Posted:

Can see 4-5cents after Monday.

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28-Feb-2022 13:17

Seatrium / Sembmarine_Green is the new gold_a better future

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Yup, high risk high return like Keppel Corp. Counters with significant exposure to the China property markets are dropping like flies. More than half of KC 2021 profit was from China property sector. Today it is Sunac holdings....when is it KC's turn?

ckmpd1 ( Date: 28-Feb-2022 12:33) Posted:

agree. High risk, high returns. Just like a casino

aspasp ( Date: 28-Feb-2022 12:30) Posted:

For punting not for investment

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28-Feb-2022 11:47

Seatrium / Sembmarine_Green is the new gold_a better future

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Good for you.

If you have the same foresight, could also sell your SCM at 8.9 cents a few months ago instead of at 8 cents.

TigerPlay ( Date: 28-Feb-2022 11:39) Posted:

Oredy let go all at 5.33 few weeks back, but will go in again if situation is favourable

better ( Date: 28-Feb-2022 11:33) Posted:

So, how is your SIA doing

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28-Feb-2022 11:33

Seatrium / Sembmarine_Green is the new gold_a better future

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So, how is your SIA doing?

TigerPlay ( Date: 28-Feb-2022 11:28) Posted:

I was having the same tot as you last time, fight till the end lor. But I see the money can be better used in another counter, so bite the bullet, I lost 150k on this counters in 2 sale transactions, but slowly getting back the losses in other counters which I used the money to buy lor, is very painful to be losing 150k on this counter....came out after losing 90k, then go in again hoping to make some quick profit, yes did make 3k plus, greedy pump in more then lost the other 60k, I have enuff liaow...

MANFREDTMK ( Date: 28-Feb-2022 11:03) Posted:

Yes, you are right. SM never failed to disappoint and always being exploited to bail out counter like SCI. It is a high class incinerator, nobody escaped the burning over the last few years. Now, I am merely betting on a low entry price amidst an improving fundamentals. This shall be my last battle, do or die.
Don't do, sure die. Might as well fight the last battle.

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27-Feb-2022 21:26

Seatrium / Sembmarine_Green is the new gold_a better future

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Of course it is beyond you. You have been listening to Snake oil salesman Loh Chin Hwa for too long. Keppel OM made a huge loss also can say it is EBITDA positive.

Keppel corp is going to suffer in 2022 as their key property markets like China and Vietnam have been in a tailspin since Q4 last year. Shares of China and Vietnam property developers like Vinhomes, Country Garden and Evergrande have fallen by more than 30% over the past few months. Think KC would be spared, think again. A matter of time. KC would correct or tank by Q1 update.

SCM' s mgt has always been very conservative, too conservative in my opinion and not willing to make ANY forward-looking statement. So, when they dare to say a " significant improvement in H1 2022" , you know that something big is coming. As explained in the webcast, the cost for the completion of the projects has been provided, so any revenue recognition will be adding on to profit.

Keppel OM had squandered their good fortune in Floatel, Kris Energy etc (About $1.5 billion gone) and have got $3 billion worth of unsold rigs collecting dust at its rapidly aging yard (just look at all the media pictures of Keppel' s yard). Sembmarine, on the other hand, has used its fortune from the good years to build its state-of-the-art Tuas Boulevard yard and the EJA yard (largest and most advanced yard in Brazil) to prepare itself for the next offshore boom

SCM will get the better hand in the merger because Temasek owns 55% of SCM and only 20% of KC, period. Also, any merger will have to get the approval of SCM' s shareholders ex Temasek. So it is possible that Temasek might sweeten the deal for SCM minority shareholders with a special dividend from its close to $2 billion cash hoard by mid-year.

ckmpd1 ( Date: 27-Feb-2022 20:56) Posted:

in the FY 2021 Financial Report released on 25 Feb 2022, SCM declared that it expects SCM' s FY 2022 financial performance to be significantly better than FY 2021. How someone can interprete such a generic statement to a profit of $400m to $500m is beyond me

weekaykee ( Date: 27-Feb-2022 20:08) Posted:

400-500m profit for 2022?????

It would have been trading at 30 cts if the BBs believed your fairy tale

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26-Feb-2022 23:24

Seatrium / Sembmarine_Green is the new gold_a better future

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From what was communicated in the Year End result webcast, it seems highly likely that Sembmarine would report a $400-500 million profit in H1 2022.

Although it is a financial Alchemy as a result of the over provision in 2021, it will nevertheless be a great morale booster. Should be clear by Q1 update in May.

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