Post Reply
981-1000 of 1003
Maybe the mid term election loses will soften Trumps stands on trades?
" China opens door to London stocks to reignite capital flight fears, sends Shanghai index down for fifth day"
Another reason why Greater China Markets are weak.
Another reason why Greater China Markets are weak.
Only OCBC did share buy back yesterday, 100,000 shares 11.07 to 11.33
Country Garden (China number 3 Developer and the Company behind Forest City) .......was trading at 17.24HKD (on 8 June 2018) vs 11.18HKD (5 Sep 2018).............. 
No worries, I have my mechanism in place.
..Just like when I cut loss on my failed long trade recently on DBS.
..Just like when I cut loss on my failed long trade recently on DBS.shangli ( Date: 05-Sep-2018 15:28) Posted:
|
but don over shoot as wellLuzern ( Date: 05-Sep-2018 15:18) Posted:
|
I am on shorts with Banks.
shangli ( Date: 05-Sep-2018 15:17) Posted:
|
Bloomberg
" Emerging-Market Contagion Fears Rotate From Currencies to Stocks
Bloomberg News-
Morgan Stanley says stay short on emerging-market currencies
-
This is becoming about contagion, illiquidity: Deutsche Bank"
just dont touch bank, wait for it drop further. the market sentiment quite negative
Luzern ( Date: 05-Sep-2018 15:16) Posted:
|
"
Major developers scaling back on land-buying spree, and curbs bite on home prices
5 Sep 2018 - 2:01pm "
China' s land auction premiums drop to lowest levels in over 3 years
Major developers scaling back on land-buying spree, and curbs bite on home prices
And yes, I am vested in Banks......all shorts positions, especially in UOB as IMO, the price of UOB and DBS is too wide.......either DBS is going to move up to close the gap or UOB should move down to close the gap. With current market sentiment, the chances of UOB moving down to close the gap is higher.
What a coincident......we were just discussing this last night after Johor Minister say Foreigner welcome to buy Forest City. My friend was like Malaysia " flip prata again" . I said where got flip prata. Malaysia PM only said will not issue Visa for foreigner buying Forest City, he never say cannot sell. Whereas Johor Minister say foreigner welcome to buy, but did not say can get Visa...keke........
Then Today this came out......
" Dr M: Chinese nationals can buy Forest City units, but no residential visas..."
Then Today this came out......
" Dr M: Chinese nationals can buy Forest City units, but no residential visas..."
In my opinion, of the 3 Banks, DBS will be most impacted due to
1) Larger loan to Greater China of (> S$100B) 32% of Loan vs UOB and OCBC of ~20%
2) ~47% of loan to Building and Construction and residential mortages.
3) The recent PR disaster of one of their Management Employee (designation as per said Employee' s LinkedIn claim). It took 2 weeks and after much public out roar before DBS post " he is no longer with the bank" note, no longer with the Bank, they did not say no longer with DBS. The deposite rate in Q3 reports will give us an idea on the impact of this incident.
4) Exposure to Indonesia whose currency is at risk.
1) Larger loan to Greater China of (> S$100B) 32% of Loan vs UOB and OCBC of ~20%
2) ~47% of loan to Building and Construction and residential mortages.
3) The recent PR disaster of one of their Management Employee (designation as per said Employee' s LinkedIn claim). It took 2 weeks and after much public out roar before DBS post " he is no longer with the bank" note, no longer with the Bank, they did not say no longer with DBS. The deposite rate in Q3 reports will give us an idea on the impact of this incident.
4) Exposure to Indonesia whose currency is at risk.
General trend of Banks is still down............how low can it gets?.............It is very likely to be much much cheaper after the Q3 and Q4 results.
IMO, DYODD
IMO, DYODD
Luzern ( Date: 05-Sep-2018 11:12) Posted:
|
" .....Recent concerns over the US-China trade war has led to DBS share price falling 8% over the past one month, given the lender' s 32% loan exposure to Greater China which is higher than its two peers 20% average. ..."
Quoted from The Edge Singapore website
Quoted from The Edge Singapore website
A good description of the current price movement of the Banks now.
" Just like stirring a heap of ashes.........you get the occasional burst of flame.............."
" Just like stirring a heap of ashes.........you get the occasional burst of flame.............."
For reference, at the peak of the oil gas & marine crisis in Aug 2016, DBS was at ~S$14.60, UOB was at ~S$17.50, OCBC was at ~S$8.30.
USD vs CNY went from 6.27 on 12 April 2018 to 6.83 on 5 Sept 2018 after the Chinese Government intervened to stabilized the exchange rate. It went as high as ~6.93 before the intervention.
6.27 to 6.83, that is about ~8.93%....... which in effect neutralised a 10% increase in Tariff, hence one of the possible reason for the decision to go for 25% tariff by US.
6.27 to 6.83, that is about ~8.93%....... which in effect neutralised a 10% increase in Tariff, hence one of the possible reason for the decision to go for 25% tariff by US.
2018 : U.S. trade in goods with China
NOTE: All figures are in millions of U.S. dollars on a nominal basis, not seasonally adjusted unless otherwise specified. Details may not equal totals due to rounding. Table reflects only those months for which there was trade.
| Month | Exports | Imports | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 2018 | 9,835.3 | 45,788.0 | -35,952.8 |
| February 2018 | 9,806.1 | 39,067.6 | -29,261.5 |
| March 2018 | 12,382.1 | 38,256.7 | -25,874.6 |
| April 2018 | 10,268.0 | 38,230.0 | -27,962.0 |
| May 2018 | 10,610.8 | 43,797.4 | -33,186.6 |
| June 2018 | 11,115.6 | 44,599.5 | -33,483.8 |
| TOTAL 2018 | 64,017.9 | 249,739.2 | -185,721.3 |
2017 : U.S. trade in goods with China
NOTE: All figures are in millions of U.S. dollars on a nominal basis, not seasonally adjusted unless otherwise specified. Details may not equal totals due to rounding. Table reflects only those months for which there was trade.
| Month | Exports | Imports | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 2017 | 9,961.1 | 41,343.1 | -31,382.0 |
| February 2017 | 9,735.8 | 32,804.3 | -23,068.5 |
| March 2017 | 9,719.2 | 34,186.9 | -24,467.8 |
| April 2017 | 9,805.7 | 37,465.6 | -27,660.0 |
| May 2017 | 9,862.2 | 41,783.1 | -31,920.9 |
| June 2017 | 9,717.4 | 42,289.2 | -32,571.7 |
| July 2017 | 9,979.1 | 43,589.2 | -33,610.1 |
| August 2017 | 10,828.3 | 45,817.8 | -34,989.4 |
| September 2017 | 10,911.7 | 45,429.7 | -34,518.0 |
| October 2017 | 12,963.4 | 48,167.7 | -35,204.2 |
| November 2017 | 12,765.0 | 48,127.8 | -35,362.8 |
| December 2017 | 13,644.8 | 44,465.7 | -30,820.9 |
| TOTAL 2017 | 129,893.6 | 505,470.0 | -375,576.4 |
How China might respond toUS' s US$200B Tariff, repost:
Luzern ( Date: 03-Sep-2018 16:24) Posted:
Luzern ( Date: 03-Sep-2018 16:24) Posted:
| US hit China with another US200B as soon as this week making a total of tariff on US$250B. China probably going to retaliate with additional US$80B tariff (the max China can impose) and also up the tariff % on all the US$130B of US imports. In addition, they will probably losen the CNY exchange rates and let market drive it lower against USD. They would probably also be selling US Bonds around the dates that US have big Bonds auction to force US to pay a higher % rate for selling bonds. And for good measure, US Companies will be targeted by China like the US Airlines, etcs. |