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Closed another batch of my Banks shorts. IMO, we probably have seen the low today for banks. If there is no further impactful news, IMO, we should see a rally in the afternoon.
UOB closing some more of the gap with DBS....... as expected.
Luzern ( Date: 05-Sep-2018 13:56) Posted:
| And yes, I am vested in Banks......all shorts positions, especially in UOB as IMO, the price of UOB and DBS is too wide.......either DBS is going to move up to close the gap or UOB should move down to close the gap. With current market sentiment, the chances of UOB moving down to close the gap is higher. |
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Jack Ma retirement is likely to be negative for HK and China Market. While US is poised for a relief rally of sort, as the market slowly realised that Trump is not going to implement the US$200B tariff on China just yet. As a poker player, he is using the additional US$267B to test China. He knows that if he were to implement the US$200B tariff now, this might tip the EM markets into a crisis and cause Republican to lose the mid term.
IMO, DYODD.
I will be closing some more of my Banks short before lunch in anticipation of a technical rebounce. But I will not be going long as I do not expect this possible rebounce to last. IMO, DYODD.
Luzern ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 09:29) Posted:
If the US$200B is not implemented today, we are likely to get a relief rally. As the delay might suggest that Trump is making some headway with China or he is having a re-think. Too bad, we will only know at 12.01pm our SGX lunch break.
Luzern ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 09:02) Posted:
| 12:01pm .....and we will know will US be implementing the US$200B today. I will be at least clearing some of my Banks Shorts before that. DYODD. |
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i am short to medium term trader and will jump in and out of a stock quickly whenever i sense opportunity or danger. anyway i am not like you and luzern, both very good in giving and sharing idea which you guys both are resourceful.
but for me, i still think banks should hold steady in the immediate term which is unlikely to go south cause it has going down substantially
Qanghoo ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 15:58) Posted:
Brother, even if the 200 bill bomb is dropped, or worst case scenario, the 500 bil bomb id dropped, it' d seem more likely to me that mkts will rally cos they' ll say the uncertainty is removed. Recall the Gulf War of 1990? When there was uncertainty, the financial mkts were sinking to a seemingly bottomless pit. But the very morning Desert Storm stormed off, the financial mkts kicked up an even bigger storm.
shangli ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 15:41) Posted:
if there' s no news for the 200b tariff, there will be big relief come next week when market are cheerful trade war concern is relieved and banks will fly high. be careful pal.
anyway i am longing bank |
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That might or might not happen. Depending on where the markets are during the implementations. And the few qtrs after implementation, the results will dictates where the prices of individual companies, banks will go.
Qanghoo ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 15:58) Posted:
Brother, even if the 200 bill bomb is dropped, or worst case scenario, the 500 bil bomb id dropped, it' d seem more likely to me that mkts will rally cos they' ll say the uncertainty is removed. Recall the Gulf War of 1990? When there was uncertainty, the financial mkts were sinking to a seemingly bottomless pit. But the very morning Desert Storm stormed off, the financial mkts kicked up an even bigger storm.
shangli ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 15:41) Posted:
if there' s no news for the 200b tariff, there will be big relief come next week when market are cheerful trade war concern is relieved and banks will fly high. be careful pal.
anyway i am longing bank |
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Brother, even if the 200 bill bomb is dropped, or worst case scenario, the 500 bil bomb id dropped, it' d seem more likely to me that mkts will rally cos they' ll say the uncertainty is removed. Recall the Gulf War of 1990? When there was uncertainty, the financial mkts were sinking to a seemingly bottomless pit. But the very morning Desert Storm stormed off, the financial mkts kicked up an even bigger storm.
shangli ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 15:41) Posted:
if there' s no news for the 200b tariff, there will be big relief come next week when market are cheerful trade war concern is relieved and banks will fly high. be careful pal.
anyway i am longing banks
Luzern ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 15:39) Posted:
So i guess that is a " no" hidden in a " Yes" ......... .
I have been negative on the banks since DBS ~S$27 and UOB ~S$27+ ......that should count for something. And I have maintain a consistence view that Banks are going down in general direction peppered with technical bounces, opportunities for punting only, not investing. So far so good except for me catching the short term bounces in the wrong direction on a few (1 or 3 ocassions) |
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I have great respect for the Elder Wee. He did snatched OUB under DBS' s nose.
. Whether or not DBS deliberately let it happened is open to debate.
Qanghoo ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 15:50) Posted:
Haha, I think good old botak will not be where he is today if he has to come here to learn abt risk management.
Luzern ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 15:42) Posted:
Besides the obvious, Banks have to deal with forex risk as well.......
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Luzern 03 Aug 09:49
Based on UOB report, 65% of their China loan are to Banks ( I assume in USD) and the rest (35%) are 50% in RMB. Their total loan to China is about $33B (if i remember correctly), that mean
33 x 0.35 x0.5 = ~5.8B (worth in SGD) are in RMB. From end June 2018 to now, that a forex lose in value of (5.8 x 5.5% = ~300million). Of course, if the trade war dies down and CNY rises again, the forex loses will drop are in the unlikely event turn a profit..... (months or qtrs later, IMO).
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Haha, I think good old botak will not be where he is today if he has to come here to learn abt risk management.
Luzern ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 15:42) Posted:
Besides the obvious, Banks have to deal with forex risk as well.......
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Luzern 03 Aug 09:49
Based on UOB report, 65% of their China loan are to Banks ( I assume in USD) and the rest (35%) are 50% in RMB. Their total loan to China is about $33B (if i remember correctly), that mean
33 x 0.35 x0.5 = ~5.8B (worth in SGD) are in RMB. From end June 2018 to now, that a forex lose in value of (5.8 x 5.5% = ~300million). Of course, if the trade war dies down and CNY rises again, the forex loses will drop are in the unlikely event turn a profit..... (months or qtrs later, IMO).
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let the price do the talking...
Luzern ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 15:44) Posted:
Thank you.
You also need to be careful. The longer term favours the Bears for Banks....IMO, DYODD.
shangli ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 15:41) Posted:
if there' s no news for the 200b tariff, there will be big relief come next week when market are cheerful trade war concern is relieved and banks will fly high. be careful pal.
anyway i am longing bank |
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Thank you.
You also need to be careful. The longer term favours the Bears for Banks....IMO, DYODD.
shangli ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 15:41) Posted:
if there' s no news for the 200b tariff, there will be big relief come next week when market are cheerful trade war concern is relieved and banks will fly high. be careful pal.
anyway i am longing banks
Luzern ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 15:39) Posted:
So i guess that is a " no" hidden in a " Yes" ..........
I have been negative on the banks since DBS ~S$27 and UOB ~S$27+ ......that should count for something. And I have maintain a consistence view that Banks are going down in general direction peppered with technical bounces, opportunities for punting only, not investing. So far so good except for me catching the short term bounces in the wrong direction on a few (1 or 3 ocassions) |
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Besides the obvious, Banks have to deal with forex risk as well.......
.........................................................................................
Luzern 03 Aug 09:49
Based on UOB report, 65% of their China loan are to Banks ( I assume in USD) and the rest (35%) are 50% in RMB. Their total loan to China is about $33B (if i remember correctly), that mean
33 x 0.35 x0.5 = ~5.8B (worth in SGD) are in RMB. From end June 2018 to now, that a forex lose in value of (5.8 x 5.5% = ~300million). Of course, if the trade war dies down and CNY rises again, the forex loses will drop are in the unlikely event turn a profit..... (months or qtrs later, IMO).
if there' s no news for the 200b tariff, there will be big relief come next week when market are cheerful trade war concern is relieved and banks will fly high. be careful pal.
anyway i am longing banks
Luzern ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 15:39) Posted:
So i guess that is a " no" hidden in a " Yes" ..........
I have been negative on the banks since DBS ~S$27 and UOB ~S$27+ ......that should count for something. And I have maintain a consistence view that Banks are going down in general direction peppered with technical bounces, opportunities for punting only, not investing. So far so good except for me catching the short term bounces in the wrong direction on a few (1 or 3 ocassions).
Qanghoo ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 15:24) Posted:
| I' m OK to maintain silence. But I' ll be ready to counter anything which I feel might unnecessarily lend to fear or panic. I' d ouuntered in the past (n I ended being the sane one) n I' ll continue to counter pts which I think cld be overly speculative. |
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So i guess that is a " no" hidden in a " Yes" .........
.
I have been negative on the banks since DBS ~S$27 and UOB ~S$27+ ......that should count for something. And I have maintain a consistence view that Banks are going down in general direction peppered with technical bounces, opportunities for punting only, not investing. So far so good except for me catching the short term bounces in the wrong direction on a few (1 or 3 ocassions).
Qanghoo ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 15:24) Posted:
I' m OK to maintain silence. But I' ll be ready to counter anything which I feel might unnecessarily lend to fear or panic. I' d ouuntered in the past (n I ended being the sane one) n I' ll continue to counter pts which I think cld be overly speculative.
Luzern ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 15:13) Posted:
Haiz.......Why not we just let the Banks share prices do the " talking" for now.......... and comes Q3, and especially Q4.....we will let the numbers do the " talking" .
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i know you short banks
Luzern ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 15:13) Posted:
Haiz.......Why not we just let the Banks share prices do the " talking" for now.......... and comes Q3, and especially Q4.....we will let the numbers do the " talking" .
Qanghoo ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 15:06) Posted:
| Do your figures say a lot abt impact on profitability? As far as I know, the bks here are extremely well managed n MAS maintains a very strict supervisory role. I believe this has played a part in the bks maintaining a quality loan portfolio. NPLs are < 2% n I' m sure they will continue to be kept at this commendable threshhold. Otherwise, if the loans fail, the people who will really panic are not the investors, but our fellow citizens who have saved so much with them. Then the upheaval will not be in the PRC or USA, but right here. Think !!! |
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I' m OK to maintain silence. But I' ll be ready to counter anything which I feel might unnecessarily lend to fear or panic. I' d ouuntered in the past (n I ended being the sane one) n I' ll continue to counter pts which I think cld be overly speculative.
Luzern ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 15:13) Posted:
Haiz.......Why not we just let the Banks share prices do the " talking" for now.......... and comes Q3, and especially Q4.....we will let the numbers do the " talking" .
Qanghoo ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 15:06) Posted:
| Do your figures say a lot abt impact on profitability? As far as I know, the bks here are extremely well managed n MAS maintains a very strict supervisory role. I believe this has played a part in the bks maintaining a quality loan portfolio. NPLs are < 2% n I' m sure they will continue to be kept at this commendable threshhold. Otherwise, if the loans fail, the people who will really panic are not the investors, but our fellow citizens who have saved so much with them. Then the upheaval will not be in the PRC or USA, but right here. Think !!! |
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Haiz.......Why not we just let the Banks share prices do the " talking" for now.......... and comes Q3, and especially Q4.....we will let the numbers do the " talking" .
Qanghoo ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 15:06) Posted:
Do your figures say a lot abt impact on profitability? As far as I know, the bks here are extremely well managed n MAS maintains a very strict supervisory role. I believe this has played a part in the bks maintaining a quality loan portfolio. NPLs are < 2% n I' m sure they will continue to be kept at this commendable threshhold. Otherwise, if the loans fail, the people who will really panic are not the investors, but our fellow citizens who have saved so much with them. Then the upheaval will not be in the PRC or USA, but right here. Think !!!!
Luzern ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 14:53) Posted:
1) DBS exposure to Greater China is 32% (about ~S$130B? recalling from memory again) of loan, UOB and OCBC ave of about 20%. With the trade tensions, this will affect new loan growth and will impact on the quality of the loans, and NPL.
2) UOB exposure to Building/Construction and Residential Mortages is ~50.2% of loan, DBS ~47%, OCBC ~40+%. With property cooling measures, this will impact new loan growth and also quality of existing loan, NPL again.
3) Increase in development charges average of 9.8%, this will impact developers, hence, impact new loans for the Banks.
4) Emerging Market Currencies Crisis, especially Indonesia
5) Malaysia re-viewing and/or cancelling of US$134B of Chinese related projects
All 5 above will impact the new loan growth and quality of existing loans. These are call for concern, no |
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Do your figures say a lot abt impact on profitability? As far as I know, the bks here are extremely well managed n MAS maintains a very strict supervisory role. I believe this has played a part in the bks maintaining a quality loan portfolio. NPLs are < 2% n I' m sure they will continue to be kept at this commendable threshhold. Otherwise, if the loans fail, the people who will really panic are not the investors, but our fellow citizens who have saved so much with them. Then the upheaval will not be in the PRC or USA, but right here. Think !!!!
Luzern ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 14:53) Posted:
1) DBS exposure to Greater China is 32% (about ~S$130B? recalling from memory again) of loan, UOB and OCBC ave of about 20%. With the trade tensions, this will affect new loan growth and will impact on the quality of the loans, and NPL.
2) UOB exposure to Building/Construction and Residential Mortages is ~50.2% of loan, DBS ~47%, OCBC ~40+%. With property cooling measures, this will impact new loan growth and also quality of existing loan, NPL again.
3) Increase in development charges average of 9.8%, this will impact developers, hence, impact new loans for the Banks.
4) Emerging Market Currencies Crisis, especially Indonesia
5) Malaysia re-viewing and/or cancelling of US$134B of Chinese related projects
All 5 above will impact the new loan growth and quality of existing loans. These are call for concern, no?
Qanghoo ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 14:31) Posted:
| My qn is - is there any big problem with the local bks? DBS was abt 13 SGD during the height of the oil rout, n OCBC was abt 7.30. But a lot of times, the px reflected a lot of scare mongering more than anything elso. DBS was never exposed to abt 80 bil to the OnG sector, contrary to a lot of rumours. Even now, I doubt if the bks are over exposed to the PRC. They have ops there, but I doubt if the impact of a full-blown trade was, if it ever happens at all, is gonna pull down their profits drastically, despite fear mongering surfacing yet again. Remember, the PRC even without the current trade tensions was faced with a lot of structural economic issues over the last few yrs which cld n probably did adversely affect our local bks' ops there. Yet, were their overall profits hurt too much? DBS was all the time in the billion dollar club despite the oil rout n the internal PRC crisis. As for properties, private residential loans will taper off somewhat, that' s for sure. But what abt the fat loans already sewn up b4 Jul 6? Do bear in mind that during the property-mkt recession between 2014 to early 17, bks were still able to actively deploy their funds n make fat profits. Also, the constn sector as a whole might still be positive (BCA wld have the guidance) n hence hank lending to the sector cld still be satisfactory at least. My own sense is that DBS' 2018 profit is still likely to come in at ard 5 bil that' s a big plus as far as I' m concerned. |
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1) DBS exposure to Greater China is 32% (about ~S$130B? recalling from memory again) of loan, UOB and OCBC ave of about 20%. With the trade tensions, this will affect new loan growth and will impact on the quality of the loans, and NPL.
2) UOB exposure to Building/Construction and Residential Mortages is ~50.2% of loan, DBS ~47%, OCBC ~40+%. With property cooling measures, this will impact new loan growth and also quality of existing loan, NPL again.
3) Increase in development charges average of 9.8%, this will impact developers, hence, impact new loans for the Banks.
4) Emerging Market Currencies Crisis, especially Indonesia
5) Malaysia re-viewing and/or cancelling of US$134B of Chinese related projects
All 5 above will impact the new loan growth and quality of existing loans. These are call for concern, no?
Qanghoo ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 14:31) Posted:
My qn is - is there any big problem with the local bks? DBS was abt 13 SGD during the height of the oil rout, n OCBC was abt 7.30. But a lot of times, the px reflected a lot of scare mongering more than anything elso. DBS was never exposed to abt 80 bil to the OnG sector, contrary to a lot of rumours. Even now, I doubt if the bks are over exposed to the PRC. They have ops there, but I doubt if the impact of a full-blown trade was, if it ever happens at all, is gonna pull down their profits drastically, despite fear mongering surfacing yet again. Remember, the PRC even without the current trade tensions was faced with a lot of structural economic issues over the last few yrs which cld n probably did adversely affect our local bks' ops there. Yet, were their overall profits hurt too much? DBS was all the time in the billion dollar club despite the oil rout n the internal PRC crisis. As for properties, private residential loans will taper off somewhat, that' s for sure. But what abt the fat loans already sewn up b4 Jul 6? Do bear in mind that during the property-mkt recession between 2014 to early 17, bks were still able to actively deploy their funds n make fat profits. Also, the constn sector as a whole might still be positive (BCA wld have the guidance) n hence hank lending to the sector cld still be satisfactory at least. My own sense is that DBS' 2018 profit is still likely to come in at ard 5 bil that' s a big plus as far as I' m concerned.
Luzern ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 13:00) Posted:
At the height of the oil, gas & marine crisis, DBS had an exposure to this industry of about ~S$7B(recalling from memory, so might be a little off here on the numbers). What were their prices then? (can see below).
If you scroll back to the ealier post in this Thread, you can see why I think the price is relatively high, considering the Banks' exposure to China and exposure to Building and Construction and Residential Mortages. After Q4 results, OCBC at $9+, DBS at S$21+ and UOB at S$22+ is not such a distance possibility in my opinion.
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