Post Reply
861-880 of 1003
Still building my shorts on banks, in anticipation of some serious correction on Dow this Friday or next Monday........IMO, DYODD
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/18/market-reaction-to-us-tariffs-on-china-first-eastern-investment-group.html
" Markets expect Trump to ' go all the way' on China tariffs: Expert
- " The market is beginning to digest that President Trump will go all the way, and I think that China has to be prepared he will go all the way," Victor Chu, the CEO of Hong Kong-based First Eastern Investment Group, told CNBC at the World Economic Forum.
- In a statement on the additional tariffs on Chinese goods that were announced Monday, Trump added that if China retaliates, the U.S. will impose tariffs on the remaining $267 billion of Chinese imports.
- But some investors may adopt a wait-and-see approach till after the U.S. midterm elections in November, he said.
Published 17 Hours Ago Updated 15 Hours Ago
Was expecting banks to gap up......too bad did not happen.
US rallied due to the tariffs being " not as bad as expected" .
US to slap 200B tariff (10% then increase to 25% in 2019) on 24/sep/2018. China to follow with a 60B tariff (5% to 10%) right after US implementation.
US Bond 10 yr bond spiked to 3.055% .......... hum.........
" It will be interesting to see how President Trump responds to the news out of China. He could see it as a provocation -- the olive branch of an invitation to talk being dismissed and retaliation being -- or could view it as further evidence, in his view, that China is " suffering."
" China to Levy Retaliatory Tariffs Simultaneously With U.S."
placed my bet on round 2 shorts.......
For the Banks Traders........
"
We' re set to bring you coverage of a press briefing by China' s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which is scheduled to start at 3pm in Beijing (8am in London, 3am in New York). The briefing is a regular daily briefing we' ll be following closely in case Beijing provides any response to the Trump administration' s new tariffs."
US future green on China limited respond?
https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2164638/pboc-lowers-yuan-fix-three-week-low-after-fresh-tariff
PBOC lowers yuan fix to three-week low after fresh tariff salvo by Washington
PUBLISHED : Tuesday, 18 September, 2018, 11:10am
UPDATED : Tuesday, 18 September, 2018, 11:10am
Blow by blow........HK open......Europe Open...and anywhere in-between....China' s respond.
Waiting for China' s respond..........they are taking longer than usual........got caught unexpected?
Considering there was no buy backs by any of the banks yesterday, DBS was holding up quite well yesterday.
UOB ....... as predicted, is closing its price gap with DBS.
DBS.... is likely to be worst hit by escalating US-China Trade War due to its exposure to Greater China among the local 3 banks.
10% tariff is definately not enough. USD have appreciated by ~> 8% against CNY since the start of the Trade war. Hence, the stated increase to 25% by Jan 1 2019 on the 200B tariff.
Bond rate falls below 3% (10-yr) after the latest Trump' s action.....(what he wanted, to lower the borrowing cost for US)
Mid Term?.......he can always claimed he tried to reason with China.........
My Banks shorts are looking very promising now........Huat Ah!
Luzern ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 14:17) Posted:
Compared to last august, its a 50% drop in sale.
The Loans of the 3 banks to the Building and Comstruction and private property mortages accounts for 40%+ to 50%+ of total loan.
So we can expect a drop in new loan to this segment of 40% to 60% from Q4 onwards? Q3 will be cushioned by the last minute buying of property on 5th July.
No prize is guessing my new banks positions. 
Qanghoo ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 09:02) Posted:
| URA release not out yet lah. So don' t get carried away lah. Release might be out later today though. N before reading too much into it, don' t forrget hungry ghost possibly skewing data from Aug/Sep. Those who took any advice to dump bk stocks good luck |
|
|
|
An article published in July 25th 2018
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2156810/many-chinese-companies-will-go-bankrupt-if-us-delivers
Many Chinese companies &lsquo will go bankrupt&rsquo , if US delivers on tariff threats, court newspaper warns
Judiciary must ready itself for possible fallout from China-US trade row, mouthpiece of Beijing&rsquo s top court says
PUBLISHED : Wednesday, 25 July, 2018, 4:53pm
UPDATED : Friday, 27 July, 2018, 1:07am
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/trump-puts-new-tariffs-on-china-as-trade-war-escalates.html
Trump will slap 10% tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods &mdash and they will go to 25% at year-end
- President Donald Trump will put 10 percent tariffs on an $200 billion in Chinese goods, which will go up to 25 percent at the end of the year.
- The action heightens the trade conflict between the world' s two largest economies.
- Trump is considering whether to put tariffs on more than $250 billion more in Chinese products.
I' m very open. Bks will continue to do will N i' ve already given my onw figure that DBS will weigh in at ard 5 bil in fy 18.
Luzern ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:58) Posted:
That is why I said...." Good try" just now. 
Qanghoo ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:55) Posted:
| I' m not cos I think it' s gonna be ridiculous. N why are u even raising such a qn. I thiought u are so eagle to let the world know how much the bks are gonna sink. Since u' ve created such a negative atmosphere, I think it' s fair to see if you make sense n we can see what happens come Jan/Feb 19. |
|
|
|
That is why I said...." Good try" just now.
Qanghoo ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:55) Posted:
I' m not cos I think it' s gonna be ridiculous. N why are u even raising such a qn. I thiought u are so eagle to let the world know how much the bks are gonna sink. Since u' ve created such a negative atmosphere, I think it' s fair to see if you make sense n we can see what happens come Jan/Feb 19.
Luzern ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:39) Posted:
How much are you willing to pay for my estimates on the impact on the Banks profitablity? You don' t really have to answer cause I would not tell you also. Even if I do, I cannot charge a fee as well.
I know how much the banks are charging for loans. It also depends on the " credit worthiness" status of the individual of companies. |
|
|
|
I' m not cos I think it' s gonna be ridiculous. N why are u even raising such a qn. I thiought u are so eagle to let the world know how much the bks are gonna sink. Since u' ve created such a negative atmosphere, I think it' s fair to see if you make sense n we can see what happens come Jan/Feb 19.
Luzern ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:39) Posted:
How much are you willing to pay for my estimates on the impact on the Banks profitablity? You don' t really have to answer cause I would not tell you also. Even if I do, I cannot charge a fee as well.
I know how much the banks are charging for loans. It also depends on the " credit worthiness" status of the individual of companies.
Qanghoo ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:34) Posted:
| How much I' m paying is personal. But if u must know, I' m paying more not less (than 2 yrs ago). Why? cos interest has gone up substantially. This is a positive which I doubt u' ve seriously considered ..... n I wonder why |
|
|
|
How much are you willing to pay for my estimates on the impact on the Banks profitablity? You don' t really have to answer cause I would not tell you also. Even if I do, I cannot charge a fee as well.
I know how much the banks are charging for loans. It also depends on the " credit worthiness" status of the individual of companies.
Qanghoo ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:34) Posted:
How much I' m paying is personal. But if u must know, I' m paying more not less (than 2 yrs ago). Why? cos interest has gone up substantially. This is a positive which I doubt u' ve seriously considered ..... n I wonder why.
Luzern ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:29) Posted:
| Good try. How much are you paying? |
|
|
|
How much I' m paying is personal. But if u must know, I' m paying more not less (than 2 yrs ago). Why? cos interest has gone up substantially. This is a positive which I doubt u' ve seriously considered ..... n I wonder why.
Luzern ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:29) Posted:
Good try. How much are you paying?
Qanghoo ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:27) Posted:
| So, how much wld the lose in new loans take away from profitability at the end of the FY? |
|
|
|
Good try. How much are you paying?
Qanghoo ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:27) Posted:
So, how much wld the lose in new loans take away from profitability at the end of the FY?
Luzern ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:23) Posted:
| Correct! the inflow (new loans) just got hit by the Cooling measures ......40% to 60% (by my estimate) hit on (in DBS case) the ~47% of total loan. And this does not include the effect of trade war on the Greater China Loans |
|
|
|
So, how much wld the lose in new loans take away from profitability at the end of the FY?
Luzern ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:23) Posted:
Correct! the inflow (new loans) just got hit by the Cooling measures ......40% to 60% (by my estimate) hit on (in DBS case) the ~47% of total loan. And this does not include the effect of trade war on the Greater China Loans.
Qanghoo ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:18) Posted:
| It' s not as if no one knows abt this. It' s a long term thing. All one needs is inflow = outflow. No issue. N to ensure the equation balances is the management' s joh, like I' d said. Over so many crises in the last 30 yrs, bks here have never failed to deliver in that sense. |
|
|
|
