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841-860 of 1003
20 more mins to decide whether to hold my positions over the weekend........ greed and fear coming into play........... so i will go for the usual.....take some profit and tabao the rest.
Luzern ( Date: 21-Sep-2018 16:38) Posted:
 ........now keeping finger crossed for the expected over the weekend bad news from US.......keke.......
Luzern ( Date: 21-Sep-2018 11:47) Posted:
| For DBS, I am now looking at 26.20 and 26.60 for opportunity to open short. IMO, DYODD |
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........now keeping finger crossed for the expected over the weekend bad news from US.......keke.......
Luzern ( Date: 21-Sep-2018 11:47) Posted:
| For DBS, I am now looking at 26.20 and 26.60 for opportunity to open short. IMO, DYODD |
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So far not working. Perhaps something more drastic tonight or over the weekend?
Luzern ( Date: 21-Sep-2018 15:21) Posted:
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Bond rate is moving up....... and USD vs CNY is moving down............
Luzern ( Date: 21-Sep-2018 11:00) Posted:
The few questions I have in my mind at the moment
1) Next week Fed meeting on the 25 and 26 september (US Time)will very likely result in a rate hike, this will impact the bank positively (has the market factored this in? What % is the market expecting? will there be surprises?)
2) The implementation of the 200B tariff by US and 60B tariff by China will happen on 24/09/2018 (12:01pm Singapore time). How much of the market are holding hope for a delay or further toning down of the tariff?
3) Treasury auction on 24 and 25 september 2018 (US Time). Will Trump try to push the bond rate down (currently 10yr is at 3.066%) by creating an equity sell off? What excuse is he going to use this time, given the market is reacting lesser and lesser to his usual ploys?.......Will China come into the picture to sell their bond holdings to drive up the Bond rate as a form of retaliation?
4) Why isn' t the USD strengthening against the CNY these few days? Even after China relaxes the CNY trading band. The demand of USD has dropped and/or the demand for CNY have increase........or have the supply of USD have increased? |
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MAY BURN YOU TO CHARCOAL..BE CAREFUL
Luzern ( Date: 21-Sep-2018 11:47) Posted:
| For DBS, I am now looking at 26.20 and 26.60 for opportunity to open short. IMO, DYODD |
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for UOB.......i am looking at 27.00 and 27.30 for short opportunity. IMO DYODD.
For DBS, I am now looking at 26.20 and 26.60 for opportunity to open short. IMO, DYODD
The gap between UOB and DBS has further narrowed. The speed of the narrowing is amazing. This on top of the fact that DBS is not doing any buy back lately. Have DBS grown smarter? Instead of direct market share buy back from th market (which don' t seem to work and is viewed by some as a sign of weakness), they have branched out to other methods? If so, indeed they have grown smarter.
The few questions I have in my mind at the moment
1) Next week Fed meeting on the 25 and 26 september (US Time)will very likely result in a rate hike, this will impact the bank positively (has the market factored this in? What % is the market expecting? will there be surprises?)
2) The implementation of the 200B tariff by US and 60B tariff by China will happen on 24/09/2018 (12:01pm Singapore time). How much of the market are holding hope for a delay or further toning down of the tariff?
3) Treasury auction on 24 and 25 september 2018 (US Time). Will Trump try to push the bond rate down (currently 10yr is at 3.066%) by creating an equity sell off? What excuse is he going to use this time, given the market is reacting lesser and lesser to his usual ploys?.......Will China come into the picture to sell their bond holdings to drive up the Bond rate as a form of retaliation?
4) Why isn' t the USD strengthening against the CNY these few days? Even after China relaxes the CNY trading band. The demand of USD has dropped and/or the demand for CNY have increase........or have the supply of USD have increased?
miss the boat on bank share
Haiz....... kenna by what I suspected.......
Luzern ( Date: 13-Sep-2018 09:42) Posted:
What if the DBS share buy back team decides do some serious buy back today?......so many What ifs?
Luzern ( Date: 13-Sep-2018 09:40) Posted:
For the shorts.........What if this rebounce is not going to frizzle out anytime soon?  |
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My build up of shorts on banks were cut short by my cut lost trigger on Wed. Did a review on what went wrong for this trade and found that I have been distracted and have ignore some of the signs, signs which I have ironically posted.
1) Only OCBC buy back yesterday.
2) Fed expected to raise rate this month, next week likely.
3) Tariffs going to hit 24/9/2018
4) Treasury auction on the 24 and 25 september
Luzern ( Date: 14-Sep-2018 09:34) Posted:
The Banks should stay positive so long as there is positive development, build up to the actuall trade talk........ and before Q3 result (likely negative, need to read between the lines and pay attention to the unsaid) are out.
Luzern ( Date: 14-Sep-2018 09:24) Posted:
| Closed my shorts on banks gradually since 7 sept. Not holding any positions in banks currently. Waiting to see how high this rebounce will go. Huat Ah |
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US 10 yr Bond rate up slightly to 3.063
USD Vs CNY dropped slightly to 6.849
Humm...........
Chinese censors wipe out discussions about stock market rout as key index tumbles past 2015 low
The China Securities Regulatory Commission, in a memo dated September 7, has asked mutual funds and brokerages from making public comments that hurt the stock market and spread chaos
PUBLISHED : Wednesday, 19 September, 2018, 7:02pm
Only OCBC did buy back yesterday.
DBS is showing surprising strength in the absent of share buy back.
DBS power.....DBS share buy back just broke even.
Yup
Luzern ( Date: 19-Sep-2018 09:04) Posted:
Was expecting banks to gap up......too bad did not happen.
US rallied due to the tariffs being " not as bad as expected" .
US to slap 200B tariff (10% then increase to 25% in 2019) on 24/sep/2018. China to follow with a 60B tariff (5% to 10%) right after US implementation.
US Bond 10 yr bond spiked to 3.055% .......... hum......... |
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This time is different.
Qanghoo ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:18) Posted:
It' s not as if no one knows abt this. It' s a long term thing. All one needs is inflow = outflow. No issue. N to ensure the equation balances is the management' s joh, like I' d said. Over so many crises in the last 30 yrs, bks here have never failed to deliver in that sense.
Luzern ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:12) Posted:
| Right....and the current loans does not mature or get paid off......... |
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👍
Luzern ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:39) Posted:
How much are you willing to pay for my estimates on the impact on the Banks profitablity? You don' t really have to answer cause I would not tell you also. Even if I do, I cannot charge a fee as well.
I know how much the banks are charging for loans. It also depends on the " credit worthiness" status of the individual of companies.
Qanghoo ( Date: 17-Sep-2018 17:34) Posted:
| How much I' m paying is personal. But if u must know, I' m paying more not less (than 2 yrs ago). Why? cos interest has gone up substantially. This is a positive which I doubt u' ve seriously considered ..... n I wonder why |
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