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you need to sit on big cash hoard to buy ocbc share if another banking crisis happened in US in 2024
 

chartistkao1      ( Date: 10-Oct-2023 09:10) Posted: middle east conflict -hemas and israel' s war mean higher oil crisis mean high interest rates mean banking crisis in US soon too https://www.firstpost.com/world/anzs-ceo-says-banking-turmoil-has-potential-to-trigger-financial-crisis-12359522.html chartistkao1      ( Date: 10-Oct-2023 09:07) Posted: canada' s brookfield acqusition of origin energy https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/accc-waves-through-18-7b-origin-energy-takeover-20231009-p5eaui https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/accc-waves-through-18-7b-origin-energy-takeover-20231009-p5eaui

 

middle east conflict -hemas and israel' s war mean higher oil crisis mean high interest rates mean banking crisis in US soon too
https://www.firstpost.com/world/anzs-ceo-says-banking-turmoil-has-potential-to-trigger-financial-crisis-12359522.html

chartistkao1      ( Date: 10-Oct-2023 09:07) Posted: canada' s brookfield acqusition of origin energy https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/accc-waves-through-18-7b-origin-energy-takeover-20231009-p5eaui https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/accc-waves-through-18-7b-origin-energy-takeover-20231009-p5eaui chartistkao1      ( Date: 10-Oct-2023 02:38) Posted: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZ6KzOs_85s   https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-sgd

 

canada' s brookfield acqusition of origin energy

chartistkao1      ( Date: 10-Oct-2023 02:38) Posted: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZ6KzOs_85s   https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-sgd chartistkao1      ( Date: 10-Oct-2023 02:34) Posted: US short covering session on 10/10/2023 https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/10/05/jpmorgans-marko-kolanovic-on-recession-watch-braces-for-20-percent-plunge-in-stocks.html?& recirc=taboolainterna

 

chartistkao1      ( Date: 10-Oct-2023 02:34) Posted: US short covering session on 10/10/2023 https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/10/05/jpmorgans-marko-kolanovic-on-recession-watch-braces-for-20-percent-plunge-in-stocks.html?& recirc=taboolainternal chartistkao1      ( Date: 09-Oct-2023 21:51) Posted: https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart The yields on the 10-year Treasury note rose 0.119 percentage point Tuesday to 4.801%, the highest level since the subprime mortgage crisis began in August 2007

 

US short covering session on 10/10/2023
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/10/05/jpmorgans-marko-kolanovic-on-recession-watch-braces-for-20-percent-plunge-in-stocks.html?& recirc=taboolainternal

chartistkao1      ( Date: 09-Oct-2023 21:51) Posted: https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart The yields on the 10-year Treasury note rose 0.119 percentage point Tuesday to 4.801%, the highest level since the subprime mortgage crisis began in August 2007 chartistkao1      ( Date: 09-Oct-2023 21:47) Posted: A sudden surge in long-term interest rates to 16-year highs is threatening hopes for an economic soft landing, all the more because the exact triggers for the move are unclear. The Federal Reserve has been raising short-term rates for 1½ years. Those increases are designed to push up longer-term bond yields, combating inflation by slowing the economy. But the speed of the latest jump might be a case of &ldquo be careful what you wish for.&rdquo It comes as inflation has eased and the Fed has signaled it is nearly done lifting rates. The yields on the 10-year Treasury note rose 0.119 percentage point Tuesday to 4.801%, the highest level since the subprime mortgage crisis began in August 2007. On Wall Street, the Dow Industrials fell about 431 points, or 1.3%, giving up all their gains for the year. The S& P 500 declined 1.4%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.9%. If the recent climb in borrowing costs&mdash along with the accompanying slump in stock prices and the stronger dollar&mdash is sustained, that could meaningfully slow the U.S. and global economies over the next year. The swiftness of the recent rise also increases the risk of financial-market breakdowns. The likeliest causes appear to be a combination of expectations of better U.S. growth and concern that huge federal deficits are pressuring investors&rsquo capacity to absorb so much debt.    Stronger-than-expected consumer spending earlier this year gave the U.S. economy a boost. Photo: Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg News Last year&rsquo s increases in long-term Treasury yields were driven by market expectations of higher short-term rates as the Fed tightened policy and by investors&rsquo demands for extra compensation to hold longer-dated assets because of fears of higher inflation. But neither of those factors appears to be driving higher rates now, which is putting the focus on other influences. Those include reduced demand for Treasurys from foreigners, U.S. banks and domestic portfolio managers who have traditionally purchased government bonds as a hedge against a downturn in stocks and other risky assets. &ldquo It&rsquo s perplexing,&rdquo said Daleep Singh, a former executive at the New York Fed who is now chief global economist at PGIM Fixed Income. &ldquo No fundamental explanation is convincing.&rdquo Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Tuesday that it wasn&rsquo t clear whether bond yields would settle out at higher levels over the long run. &ldquo It&rsquo s a great question, and it&rsquo s one that&rsquo s very much on my and the administration&rsquo s minds,&rdquo she said during a moderated discussion at the Fortune CEO Initiative conference in Washington.  Newsletter Sign-up Real Time Economics The latest economic news, analysis and data curated weekdays by WSJ' s Jeffrey Sparshott.           Subscribe The lack of an obvious culprit for the latest rise in longer-dated yields suggests that the so-called term premium, or the extra yield that investors demand for investing in longer-dated assets, is rising. That would mark an abrupt reversal following the low-inflation, low-growth environment that prevailed between the 2008-09 financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. A higher term premium means even if inflation is under control, borrowers will have to pay more than before because investors want extra compensation for the risks associated with locking up their money for longer periods. A sustained rise in Treasury yields will be costly for the U.S. government because it would face still-higher borrowing costs on a much larger stock of its debt. The publicly held debt of the U.S. has doubled to around $26 trillion over the past eight years. The run-up in borrowing costs is sending mortgage rates to 23-year highs, with more lenders now quoting rates above 7.5% for the 30-year fixed loan. Higher borrowing costs could weigh on stocks and other asset prices, leading to weaker investment, hiring and economic activity. Since the beginning of August, the S& P 500 has shed nearly 8%, while the U.S. dollar has climbed almost 5% against a basket of foreign currencies. Economists at Goldman Sachs estimate that if the tightening in financial conditions that began in late July is sustained, it could reduce economic output by 1 percentage point over the coming year. Advertisement - Scroll to Continue That could weaken the case for the Fed to raise interest rates later this year. &ldquo We&rsquo re going to have to watch it,&rdquo Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told reporters Tuesday. &ldquo Those higher rates will have an impact on the economy, and we just have to take that into account when we&rsquo re setting monetary policy.&rdquo The growth outlook brightens Investors haven&rsquo t changed their expectations in recent weeks that the Fed is nearly done raising rates. They see a rising probability, however, that the central bank holds rates at current levels through next year. Once the Fed cuts rates, they see fewer reductions than they did three months ago.   The current run-up in bond yields gained momentum at the end of July, when the economy began to show signs of reacceleration in the midst of stronger-than-expected consumer spending. Since then, investors and Fed officials have scrapped their projections that the economy would stumble. Fed officials have raised their expectations for economic growth next year because &ldquo underlying momentum in the economy is quite a bit stronger than we thought&hellip and I think that&rsquo s also what market participants are doing,&rdquo said Mester.   What&rsquo s News House Is Left Paralyzed After Kevin McCarthy&rsquo s Historic Ouster           Explore Audio Center Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged in September that interest-rate hikes hadn&rsquo t slowed the economy as much as anticipated. Some officials believe the government&rsquo s response to the pandemic made the private sector more resilient to the effect of higher interest rates, while others have suggested that interest rates simply haven&rsquo t been high enough for long enough to meaningfully dent demand. In the previous decade, when the economy seemed less responsive to more monetary stimulus, officials concluded that the so-called neutral rate that keeps inflation and unemployment stable over time might have fallen. Now, some are wondering whether the opposite is occurring, leading to a higher neutral rate Investors are puzzling over why consumption has been strong despite the Fed&rsquo s aggressive rate increases. If it is because the neutral rate is higher, the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, justifying the recent run-up in yields. If it is because the traditional lags of monetary policy simply haven&rsquo t kicked in, then it could be just a matter of time before the economy slows. &ldquo More people were in the lags camp six months ago, and they&rsquo ve slowly thrown in the towel on that one,&rdquo said Priya Misra, portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. &ldquo They are reassessing how long the Fed will have to keep rates here.&rdquo A new economic regime? Investors are also grappling with the possibility that the global economy faces greater inflation volatility in the coming years. That would be the case if many of the forces that underpinned low inflation and low interest rates after the 2008-09 financial crisis&mdash including globalization, favorable demographics and abundant cheap energy supplies&mdash weaken or go into reverse. A stronger growth outlook could weaken demand for Treasurys as the supply of securities being issued by the government is rising and as some buyers are stepping back from the market. The Fed, for example, purchased trillions of securities between 2008 and 2014 and again between 2020 and 2022 to provide additional stimulus after driving short-term rates to zero. Officials believed those purchases would lower long-term yields in part by reducing the term premium. The central bank ended its purchases in March 2022 and three months later began shedding those holdings passively. It has been allowing up to $60 billion in Treasury securities to mature every month this year without replacing them, which could lift the term premium. The Fed&rsquo s asset holdings have declined by nearly $1 trillion over the past year, to around $8 trillion last week. SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS What is your outlook for the U.S. economy? Join the conversation below.   &ldquo What we&rsquo re seeing is a reappraisal of how the bond market prices uncertainty itself,&rdquo said Singh. &ldquo The compensation required to underwrite potentially the new structural regime with more volatile growth and inflation and fewer predictable sources of demand to absorb record amounts of government debt issuance has clearly risen.&rdquo On Tuesday, Yellen said it was premature to conclude that the U.S. was facing a future of persistently higher interest rates. &ldquo The structural forces that led us to believe interest rates would be low&mdash they&rsquo re alive and well,&rdquo she said. As the Fed raised rates to tame inflation last year, bonds and stocks both fell, a departure from the traditional pattern in which investors could hedge the risk of a downturn in stocks and other risky assets by purchasing Treasurys. Many investors had expected that as the Fed neared the end of its rate hikes, the traditional negative correlation between stocks and bonds would return.  The big surprise in the past two months is that this hasn&rsquo t happened, in part because the Fed might not cut rates as quickly or as swiftly as investors have anticipated. A strong September employment report this Friday could add to the bond-market rout by underscoring the economy&rsquo s resilience, which would push yields higher. On the other hand, signs of weakness could halt the rise  in yields. &ldquo These types of things often take on a life of their own until they self-correct,&rdquo either through weaker economic data or &ldquo a more sinister mechanism, such as a financial stability scare,&rdquo said Singh. &ldquo Either of those two developments would mark an inflection point back towards lower yields, but we&rsquo re not there yet.&rdquo

 

chartistkao1      ( Date: 09-Oct-2023 21:47) Posted: A sudden surge in long-term interest rates to 16-year highs is threatening hopes for an economic soft landing, all the more because the exact triggers for the move are unclear. The Federal Reserve has been raising short-term rates for 1½ years. Those increases are designed to push up longer-term bond yields, combating inflation by slowing the economy. But the speed of the latest jump might be a case of &ldquo be careful what you wish for.&rdquo It comes as inflation has eased and the Fed has signaled it is nearly done lifting rates. The yields on the 10-year Treasury note rose 0.119 percentage point Tuesday to 4.801%, the highest level since the subprime mortgage crisis began in August 2007. On Wall Street, the Dow Industrials fell about 431 points, or 1.3%, giving up all their gains for the year. The S& P 500 declined 1.4%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.9%. If the recent climb in borrowing costs&mdash along with the accompanying slump in stock prices and the stronger dollar&mdash is sustained, that could meaningfully slow the U.S. and global economies over the next year. The swiftness of the recent rise also increases the risk of financial-market breakdowns. The likeliest causes appear to be a combination of expectations of better U.S. growth and concern that huge federal deficits are pressuring investors&rsquo capacity to absorb so much debt.    Stronger-than-expected consumer spending earlier this year gave the U.S. economy a boost. Photo: Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg News Last year&rsquo s increases in long-term Treasury yields were driven by market expectations of higher short-term rates as the Fed tightened policy and by investors&rsquo demands for extra compensation to hold longer-dated assets because of fears of higher inflation. But neither of those factors appears to be driving higher rates now, which is putting the focus on other influences. Those include reduced demand for Treasurys from foreigners, U.S. banks and domestic portfolio managers who have traditionally purchased government bonds as a hedge against a downturn in stocks and other risky assets. &ldquo It&rsquo s perplexing,&rdquo said Daleep Singh, a former executive at the New York Fed who is now chief global economist at PGIM Fixed Income. &ldquo No fundamental explanation is convincing.&rdquo Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Tuesday that it wasn&rsquo t clear whether bond yields would settle out at higher levels over the long run. &ldquo It&rsquo s a great question, and it&rsquo s one that&rsquo s very much on my and the administration&rsquo s minds,&rdquo she said during a moderated discussion at the Fortune CEO Initiative conference in Washington.  Newsletter Sign-up Real Time Economics The latest economic news, analysis and data curated weekdays by WSJ' s Jeffrey Sparshott.           Subscribe The lack of an obvious culprit for the latest rise in longer-dated yields suggests that the so-called term premium, or the extra yield that investors demand for investing in longer-dated assets, is rising. That would mark an abrupt reversal following the low-inflation, low-growth environment that prevailed between the 2008-09 financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. A higher term premium means even if inflation is under control, borrowers will have to pay more than before because investors want extra compensation for the risks associated with locking up their money for longer periods. A sustained rise in Treasury yields will be costly for the U.S. government because it would face still-higher borrowing costs on a much larger stock of its debt. The publicly held debt of the U.S. has doubled to around $26 trillion over the past eight years. The run-up in borrowing costs is sending mortgage rates to 23-year highs, with more lenders now quoting rates above 7.5% for the 30-year fixed loan. Higher borrowing costs could weigh on stocks and other asset prices, leading to weaker investment, hiring and economic activity. Since the beginning of August, the S& P 500 has shed nearly 8%, while the U.S. dollar has climbed almost 5% against a basket of foreign currencies. Economists at Goldman Sachs estimate that if the tightening in financial conditions that began in late July is sustained, it could reduce economic output by 1 percentage point over the coming year. Advertisement - Scroll to Continue That could weaken the case for the Fed to raise interest rates later this year. &ldquo We&rsquo re going to have to watch it,&rdquo Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told reporters Tuesday. &ldquo Those higher rates will have an impact on the economy, and we just have to take that into account when we&rsquo re setting monetary policy.&rdquo The growth outlook brightens Investors haven&rsquo t changed their expectations in recent weeks that the Fed is nearly done raising rates. They see a rising probability, however, that the central bank holds rates at current levels through next year. Once the Fed cuts rates, they see fewer reductions than they did three months ago.   The current run-up in bond yields gained momentum at the end of July, when the economy began to show signs of reacceleration in the midst of stronger-than-expected consumer spending. Since then, investors and Fed officials have scrapped their projections that the economy would stumble. Fed officials have raised their expectations for economic growth next year because &ldquo underlying momentum in the economy is quite a bit stronger than we thought&hellip and I think that&rsquo s also what market participants are doing,&rdquo said Mester.   What&rsquo s News House Is Left Paralyzed After Kevin McCarthy&rsquo s Historic Ouster           Explore Audio Center Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged in September that interest-rate hikes hadn&rsquo t slowed the economy as much as anticipated. Some officials believe the government&rsquo s response to the pandemic made the private sector more resilient to the effect of higher interest rates, while others have suggested that interest rates simply haven&rsquo t been high enough for long enough to meaningfully dent demand. In the previous decade, when the economy seemed less responsive to more monetary stimulus, officials concluded that the so-called neutral rate that keeps inflation and unemployment stable over time might have fallen. Now, some are wondering whether the opposite is occurring, leading to a higher neutral rate Investors are puzzling over why consumption has been strong despite the Fed&rsquo s aggressive rate increases. If it is because the neutral rate is higher, the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, justifying the recent run-up in yields. If it is because the traditional lags of monetary policy simply haven&rsquo t kicked in, then it could be just a matter of time before the economy slows. &ldquo More people were in the lags camp six months ago, and they&rsquo ve slowly thrown in the towel on that one,&rdquo said Priya Misra, portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. &ldquo They are reassessing how long the Fed will have to keep rates here.&rdquo A new economic regime? Investors are also grappling with the possibility that the global economy faces greater inflation volatility in the coming years. That would be the case if many of the forces that underpinned low inflation and low interest rates after the 2008-09 financial crisis&mdash including globalization, favorable demographics and abundant cheap energy supplies&mdash weaken or go into reverse. A stronger growth outlook could weaken demand for Treasurys as the supply of securities being issued by the government is rising and as some buyers are stepping back from the market. The Fed, for example, purchased trillions of securities between 2008 and 2014 and again between 2020 and 2022 to provide additional stimulus after driving short-term rates to zero. Officials believed those purchases would lower long-term yields in part by reducing the term premium. The central bank ended its purchases in March 2022 and three months later began shedding those holdings passively. It has been allowing up to $60 billion in Treasury securities to mature every month this year without replacing them, which could lift the term premium. The Fed&rsquo s asset holdings have declined by nearly $1 trillion over the past year, to around $8 trillion last week. SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS What is your outlook for the U.S. economy? Join the conversation below.   &ldquo What we&rsquo re seeing is a reappraisal of how the bond market prices uncertainty itself,&rdquo said Singh. &ldquo The compensation required to underwrite potentially the new structural regime with more volatile growth and inflation and fewer predictable sources of demand to absorb record amounts of government debt issuance has clearly risen.&rdquo On Tuesday, Yellen said it was premature to conclude that the U.S. was facing a future of persistently higher interest rates. &ldquo The structural forces that led us to believe interest rates would be low&mdash they&rsquo re alive and well,&rdquo she said. As the Fed raised rates to tame inflation last year, bonds and stocks both fell, a departure from the traditional pattern in which investors could hedge the risk of a downturn in stocks and other risky assets by purchasing Treasurys. Many investors had expected that as the Fed neared the end of its rate hikes, the traditional negative correlation between stocks and bonds would return.  The big surprise in the past two months is that this hasn&rsquo t happened, in part because the Fed might not cut rates as quickly or as swiftly as investors have anticipated. A strong September employment report this Friday could add to the bond-market rout by underscoring the economy&rsquo s resilience, which would push yields higher. On the other hand, signs of weakness could halt the rise  in yields. &ldquo These types of things often take on a life of their own until they self-correct,&rdquo either through weaker economic data or &ldquo a more sinister mechanism, such as a financial stability scare,&rdquo said Singh. &ldquo Either of those two developments would mark an inflection point back towards lower yields, but we&rsquo re not there yet.&rdquo chartistkao1      ( Date: 09-Oct-2023 21:41) Posted: Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T& Cs and Copyright Policy. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found here. https://www.ft.com/content/144c541a-1109-40c9-b74a-7d176ba90fc6 Dreamstime Who feels the pain from the bond sell-off? on x (opens in a new window) Who feels the pain from the bond sell-off? on facebook (opens in a new window) Who feels the pain from the bond sell-off? on linkedin (opens in a new window) current progress 4% Owen Walker, Ian Smith, Will Louch and Josephine Cumbo in London and Stephen Gandel, Antoine Gara and Harriet Clarfelt in New York October 5 2023 133 Print this page A sell-off in global bond markets has pushed borrowing costs to their highest levels in a decade or more. That means potentially heavy losses for banks, insurers, pension funds and asset managers that own trillions of dollars of sovereign and corporate debt after loading up in recent years. Policymakers and investors are wary that the latest round of sharp moves could inflict severe damage on various parts of the financial system. &ldquo We are watching this&thinsp .&thinsp .&thinsp .&thinsp very carefully to see if something breaks,&rdquo said Salman Ahmed, global head of macro at Fidelity International. US banks Paper losses on the most opaque part of US banks&rsquo bond portfolios are now close to $400bn &mdash an all-time high, and 10 per cent above the peak at the start of the year that caused the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank &mdash according to Matthew Anderson, an analyst at bond data firm Trepp. Most banks, and in particular the largest ones, will not have to sell and so will never realise those losses. But the implosion of midsized US lender SVB in March refocused the minds of regulators and investors on the risks lurking in bank bond portfolios. After receiving an avalanche of deposits from venture capital funds, SVB ramped up investment in a $120bn portfolio of highly rated government-backed securities. But when rates rose sharply last year, the value of the portfolio fell by $15bn, which was almost equal to the bank&rsquo s total capital, making it vulnerable to a wave of customers pulling their deposits. At the same time, higher rates create more incentive for depositors to move their money, forcing banks to pay up to keep accounts &mdash which ultimately hurts profits. Shares of Western Alliance Bancorp, a Phoenix-based regional bank that like the former SVB caters to cash-challenged start-ups, have fallen 20 per cent since bond yields began their renewed rise in late August. Among the big banks, Bank of America has been the worst performer. Shares of BofA &mdash which at the end of the second quarter had nearly $110bn in unrealised losses, the most out of any bank in the US &mdash hit a 52-week low on Wednesday of just below $26. In all, the shares of the US&rsquo s largest banks, as measured by the KBW Nasdaq Bank index, have dropped an average of 8.5 per cent in the past month, erasing tens of billions of dollars from investors&rsquo portfolios. European banks If paper losses on bond portfolios were realised they would have caused a 200 basis point hit to the common equity tier 1 ratios &mdash a measure of financial strength &mdash of the largest US lenders at the end of June, according to Stuart Graham, head of banks at Autonomous Research. By comparison, the impact for European lenders fell from 100 bps to 80 bps in the first half of this year, partly in response to banks reducing their bond portfolios. But Graham said he expected the impact to be higher once banks reported their third-quarter numbers. In response to SVB&rsquo s collapse, the European Central Bank carried out an industry-wide probe into eurozone bank exposure to rapidly rising interest rates to try to understand how risk could spread to other sectors. The results, published in July, showed the 104 banks supervised by the ECB had combined net unrealised losses of &euro 73bn in their bond portfolios in February. The analysis showed that those losses would increase by an additional &euro 155bn in the worst-case scenario of the regulator&rsquo s bank stress tests. &ldquo This should be regarded as an unlikely hypothetical outcome, as banks&rsquo amortised-cost portfolios are designed to be held to maturity and&thinsp .&thinsp .&thinsp .&thinsp banks would typically turn to repo transactions and other mitigating actions before liquidating their bond positions,&rdquo the ECB said. Insurance Life insurers are big holders of bonds, which they use to back liabilities such as pension obligations. Their share prices were hit hard following the collapse of SVB. Insurers can often hold bonds to maturity, riding out market falls, while higher interest rates generally lift their solvency levels. But the concern is that a speedy rise in rates encourages customers to cash in long-term products, forcing insurers to sell bonds and other matching assets at a loss. The worst-case scenario is that &ldquo policyholder behaviour changes such that the insurers become forced sellers&rdquo , said Douglas Baker, a director at Fitch Ratings. European insurers including Generali reported a rise in so-called lapses at the start of the year in countries such as Italy and France, particularly in policies sold through banks, where customers are more likely to switch. Generali said the picture had improved in the second quarter. The failure of Eurovita, a small Italian life insurer backed by UK private equity firm Cinven, was another sign of trouble. It was taken into special administration by the regulator this year after a build-up in unrealised losses due to rapidly rising rates, alongside what Italy&rsquo s central bank described as &ldquo inadequate risk management&rdquo , left it with a capital hole. Pensions In general, higher yields on government debt are good news for UK pension funds because it improves their funding position. But a year ago, a sudden sell-off in gilts following then-prime minister Liz Truss&rsquo s &ldquo mini&rdquo Budget sparked a crisis in the pensions industry. Many UK pension schemes use a strategy known as &ldquo liability-driven investment&rdquo which aims to hedge against moves in gilt yields and ensure long-term obligations to pensioners stay matched with long-term assets. As investors fretted about the scale of proposed government borrowing and dumped gilts, yields on UK government debt soared. That meant that the pension schemes&rsquo hedging strategies had to be supported with more collateral. To meet those collateral calls, pension funds cashed in their most liquid assets: gilts. That created a spiral where forced sales of gilts sent prices tumbling further and yields climbing higher &mdash and then required the pension funds to stump up yet more collateral. The speed and scale of the move in UK bond yields meant that many schemes could not find enough ready cash and had to sell less liquid assets, typically at a haircut. The latest rise in bond yields has once again led to pension funds facing collateral calls. This time, consultants say the system is coping due to better controls on leverage and liquidity. However, they warned that if bond yields continued to rise it could force some pension plans to dump less easily traded assets. &ldquo Further yield rises might test some funds with tighter liquidity buffers,&rdquo said Simeon Willis, chief investment officer with XPS, a pension investment adviser. &ldquo While there is no imminent possibility that the pension schemes are going to experience what they did a year ago from the rapid rise in gilt yields, what they are still exposed to is a longer-term persistent rise in yields chipping away at their asset base and leading them to the point where they need to further sell down illiquid assets, at a haircut.&rdquo Debt markets Corporate debt markets have also come under intensifying pressure from the sharp rise in government bond yields, which feeds through to companies&rsquo borrowing costs. The average yield on US junk bonds climbed above 9.3 per cent this week, up from less than 9 per cent at the end of September and 8.5 per cent a month earlier. In turn, the premium that lowly rated borrowers pay above the US government to issue debt &mdash a barometer of default risks &mdash has also risen. The moves have been more pronounced at the riskiest end of the credit spectrum, with the average spread on &ldquo triple C and lower&rdquo bonds expanding on Tuesday by its most in a day since March &mdash when banking sector ructions stoked worries over tougher lending standards. Many companies have also been able to hold off from refinancing debt, after taking advantage of ultra-low interest rates at the start of the coronavirus pandemic to borrow cheaply and push out maturities. However, a flood of debt will come due in 2025-26 &mdash and issuers of junk loans, which have floating interest rates, are already feeling the effects of US Federal Reserve tightening. Rising yields &ldquo put more pressure on companies that are more levered or properties that are more levered&rdquo , said Greg Peters, co-chief investment officer of PGIM Fixed Income. &ldquo You&rsquo re going to experience&thinsp .&thinsp .&thinsp . a higher than typical default and distressed rate environment as these companies that really survived largely in part due to cheap financing start to unwind.&rdquo Private equity The prospect of interest rates staying higher for longer is bad news for private equity on multiple fronts. Dealmaking had already dropped over the past 12 months as buyout firms struggled with the impact of rising borrowing costs. &ldquo Private equity has for a long time been synonymous with &lsquo leveraged buyout&rsquo , so it goes without saying that the &lsquo leverage&rsquo part becomes more expensive for current or prospective portfolio companies,&rdquo said Haakon Blakstad, chief commercial officer at Validus Risk Management. The slowdown in the deal cycle has made it more difficult for firms to sell assets and return money to their investors. And the ability of companies to service their debt is also starting to appear more strained. Researchers at Carlyle Group have warned that the rising cost of debt has dramatically lowered interest coverage ratios across the private equity universe, a metric that many lenders and rating agencies use as a gauge of whether companies can service their debts with operating profits. Together with inflation and a slowing economy, that could lead to more buyout-backed companies running into trouble. Rising long-term interest rates will also put pressure on private real estate valuations, where firms such as Blackstone and Brookfield have become some of the largest property owners globally. Private real estate valuations have traditionally been done using benchmark rates of 10 years or longer, which up until recent months had risen far less than short-term rates. Were longer term rates to stay high for a prolonged period, it may force property owners to cut valuations anew just as trillions of dollars in loans are due to mature in the coming years. Additional reporting by Mary McDougall in London Sign up to the Personal Finance newsletter, every weekday Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2023. All rights reserved. Late

 

A sudden surge in long-term interest rates to 16-year highs is threatening hopes for an economic soft landing, all the more because the exact triggers for the move are unclear. Stronger-than-expected consumer spending earlier this year gave the U.S. economy a boost. Photo: Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg News
Last year&rsquo s increases in long-term Treasury yields were driven by market expectations of higher short-term rates as the Fed tightened policy and by investors&rsquo demands for extra compensation to hold longer-dated assets because of fears of higher inflation.
But neither of those factors appears to be driving higher rates now, which is putting the focus on other influences. Those include reduced demand for Treasurys from foreigners, U.S. banks and domestic portfolio managers who have traditionally purchased government bonds as a hedge against a downturn in stocks and other risky assets.
&ldquo It&rsquo s perplexing,&rdquo said Daleep Singh, a former executive at the New York Fed who is now chief global economist at PGIM Fixed Income. &ldquo No fundamental explanation is convincing.&rdquo
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Tuesday that it wasn&rsquo t clear whether bond yields would settle out at higher levels over the long run. &ldquo It&rsquo s a great question, and it&rsquo s one that&rsquo s very much on my and the administration&rsquo s minds,&rdquo she said during a moderated discussion at the Fortune CEO Initiative conference in Washington.  The lack of an obvious culprit for the latest rise in longer-dated yields suggests that the so-called term premium, or the extra yield that investors demand for investing in longer-dated assets, is rising. That would mark an abrupt reversal following the low-inflation, low-growth environment that prevailed between the 2008-09 financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic.
A higher term premium means even if inflation is under control, borrowers will have to pay more than before because investors want extra compensation for the risks associated with locking up their money for longer periods.
A sustained rise in Treasury yields will be costly for the U.S. government because it would face still-higher borrowing costs on a much larger stock of its debt. The publicly held debt of the U.S. has doubled to around $26 trillion over the past eight years.
The run-up in borrowing costs is sending mortgage rates to 23-year highs, with more lenders now quoting rates above 7.5% for the 30-year fixed loan. Higher borrowing costs could weigh on stocks and other asset prices, leading to weaker investment, hiring and economic activity.
Since the beginning of August, the S& P 500 has shed nearly 8%, while the U.S. dollar has climbed almost 5% against a basket of foreign currencies.
Economists at Goldman Sachs estimate that if the tightening in financial conditions that began in late July is sustained, it could reduce economic output by 1 percentage point over the coming year.
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chartistkao1      ( Date: 09-Oct-2023 21:41) Posted: Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T& Cs and Copyright Policy. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found here. https://www.ft.com/content/144c541a-1109-40c9-b74a-7d176ba90fc6 Dreamstime Who feels the pain from the bond sell-off? on x (opens in a new window) Who feels the pain from the bond sell-off? on facebook (opens in a new window) Who feels the pain from the bond sell-off? on linkedin (opens in a new window) current progress 4% Owen Walker, Ian Smith, Will Louch and Josephine Cumbo in London and Stephen Gandel, Antoine Gara and Harriet Clarfelt in New York October 5 2023 133 Print this page A sell-off in global bond markets has pushed borrowing costs to their highest levels in a decade or more. That means potentially heavy losses for banks, insurers, pension funds and asset managers that own trillions of dollars of sovereign and corporate debt after loading up in recent years. Policymakers and investors are wary that the latest round of sharp moves could inflict severe damage on various parts of the financial system. &ldquo We are watching this&thinsp .&thinsp .&thinsp .&thinsp very carefully to see if something breaks,&rdquo said Salman Ahmed, global head of macro at Fidelity International. US banks Paper losses on the most opaque part of US banks&rsquo bond portfolios are now close to $400bn &mdash an all-time high, and 10 per cent above the peak at the start of the year that caused the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank &mdash according to Matthew Anderson, an analyst at bond data firm Trepp. Most banks, and in particular the largest ones, will not have to sell and so will never realise those losses. But the implosion of midsized US lender SVB in March refocused the minds of regulators and investors on the risks lurking in bank bond portfolios. After receiving an avalanche of deposits from venture capital funds, SVB ramped up investment in a $120bn portfolio of highly rated government-backed securities. But when rates rose sharply last year, the value of the portfolio fell by $15bn, which was almost equal to the bank&rsquo s total capital, making it vulnerable to a wave of customers pulling their deposits. At the same time, higher rates create more incentive for depositors to move their money, forcing banks to pay up to keep accounts &mdash which ultimately hurts profits. Shares of Western Alliance Bancorp, a Phoenix-based regional bank that like the former SVB caters to cash-challenged start-ups, have fallen 20 per cent since bond yields began their renewed rise in late August. Among the big banks, Bank of America has been the worst performer. Shares of BofA &mdash which at the end of the second quarter had nearly $110bn in unrealised losses, the most out of any bank in the US &mdash hit a 52-week low on Wednesday of just below $26. In all, the shares of the US&rsquo s largest banks, as measured by the KBW Nasdaq Bank index, have dropped an average of 8.5 per cent in the past month, erasing tens of billions of dollars from investors&rsquo portfolios. European banks If paper losses on bond portfolios were realised they would have caused a 200 basis point hit to the common equity tier 1 ratios &mdash a measure of financial strength &mdash of the largest US lenders at the end of June, according to Stuart Graham, head of banks at Autonomous Research. By comparison, the impact for European lenders fell from 100 bps to 80 bps in the first half of this year, partly in response to banks reducing their bond portfolios. But Graham said he expected the impact to be higher once banks reported their third-quarter numbers. In response to SVB&rsquo s collapse, the European Central Bank carried out an industry-wide probe into eurozone bank exposure to rapidly rising interest rates to try to understand how risk could spread to other sectors. The results, published in July, showed the 104 banks supervised by the ECB had combined net unrealised losses of &euro 73bn in their bond portfolios in February. The analysis showed that those losses would increase by an additional &euro 155bn in the worst-case scenario of the regulator&rsquo s bank stress tests. &ldquo This should be regarded as an unlikely hypothetical outcome, as banks&rsquo amortised-cost portfolios are designed to be held to maturity and&thinsp .&thinsp .&thinsp .&thinsp banks would typically turn to repo transactions and other mitigating actions before liquidating their bond positions,&rdquo the ECB said. Insurance Life insurers are big holders of bonds, which they use to back liabilities such as pension obligations. Their share prices were hit hard following the collapse of SVB. Insurers can often hold bonds to maturity, riding out market falls, while higher interest rates generally lift their solvency levels. But the concern is that a speedy rise in rates encourages customers to cash in long-term products, forcing insurers to sell bonds and other matching assets at a loss. The worst-case scenario is that &ldquo policyholder behaviour changes such that the insurers become forced sellers&rdquo , said Douglas Baker, a director at Fitch Ratings. European insurers including Generali reported a rise in so-called lapses at the start of the year in countries such as Italy and France, particularly in policies sold through banks, where customers are more likely to switch. Generali said the picture had improved in the second quarter. The failure of Eurovita, a small Italian life insurer backed by UK private equity firm Cinven, was another sign of trouble. It was taken into special administration by the regulator this year after a build-up in unrealised losses due to rapidly rising rates, alongside what Italy&rsquo s central bank described as &ldquo inadequate risk management&rdquo , left it with a capital hole. Pensions In general, higher yields on government debt are good news for UK pension funds because it improves their funding position. But a year ago, a sudden sell-off in gilts following then-prime minister Liz Truss&rsquo s &ldquo mini&rdquo Budget sparked a crisis in the pensions industry. Many UK pension schemes use a strategy known as &ldquo liability-driven investment&rdquo which aims to hedge against moves in gilt yields and ensure long-term obligations to pensioners stay matched with long-term assets. As investors fretted about the scale of proposed government borrowing and dumped gilts, yields on UK government debt soared. That meant that the pension schemes&rsquo hedging strategies had to be supported with more collateral. To meet those collateral calls, pension funds cashed in their most liquid assets: gilts. That created a spiral where forced sales of gilts sent prices tumbling further and yields climbing higher &mdash and then required the pension funds to stump up yet more collateral. The speed and scale of the move in UK bond yields meant that many schemes could not find enough ready cash and had to sell less liquid assets, typically at a haircut. The latest rise in bond yields has once again led to pension funds facing collateral calls. This time, consultants say the system is coping due to better controls on leverage and liquidity. However, they warned that if bond yields continued to rise it could force some pension plans to dump less easily traded assets. &ldquo Further yield rises might test some funds with tighter liquidity buffers,&rdquo said Simeon Willis, chief investment officer with XPS, a pension investment adviser. &ldquo While there is no imminent possibility that the pension schemes are going to experience what they did a year ago from the rapid rise in gilt yields, what they are still exposed to is a longer-term persistent rise in yields chipping away at their asset base and leading them to the point where they need to further sell down illiquid assets, at a haircut.&rdquo Debt markets Corporate debt markets have also come under intensifying pressure from the sharp rise in government bond yields, which feeds through to companies&rsquo borrowing costs. The average yield on US junk bonds climbed above 9.3 per cent this week, up from less than 9 per cent at the end of September and 8.5 per cent a month earlier. In turn, the premium that lowly rated borrowers pay above the US government to issue debt &mdash a barometer of default risks &mdash has also risen. The moves have been more pronounced at the riskiest end of the credit spectrum, with the average spread on &ldquo triple C and lower&rdquo bonds expanding on Tuesday by its most in a day since March &mdash when banking sector ructions stoked worries over tougher lending standards. Many companies have also been able to hold off from refinancing debt, after taking advantage of ultra-low interest rates at the start of the coronavirus pandemic to borrow cheaply and push out maturities. However, a flood of debt will come due in 2025-26 &mdash and issuers of junk loans, which have floating interest rates, are already feeling the effects of US Federal Reserve tightening. Rising yields &ldquo put more pressure on companies that are more levered or properties that are more levered&rdquo , said Greg Peters, co-chief investment officer of PGIM Fixed Income. &ldquo You&rsquo re going to experience&thinsp .&thinsp .&thinsp . a higher than typical default and distressed rate environment as these companies that really survived largely in part due to cheap financing start to unwind.&rdquo Private equity The prospect of interest rates staying higher for longer is bad news for private equity on multiple fronts. Dealmaking had already dropped over the past 12 months as buyout firms struggled with the impact of rising borrowing costs. &ldquo Private equity has for a long time been synonymous with &lsquo leveraged buyout&rsquo , so it goes without saying that the &lsquo leverage&rsquo part becomes more expensive for current or prospective portfolio companies,&rdquo said Haakon Blakstad, chief commercial officer at Validus Risk Management. The slowdown in the deal cycle has made it more difficult for firms to sell assets and return money to their investors. And the ability of companies to service their debt is also starting to appear more strained. Researchers at Carlyle Group have warned that the rising cost of debt has dramatically lowered interest coverage ratios across the private equity universe, a metric that many lenders and rating agencies use as a gauge of whether companies can service their debts with operating profits. Together with inflation and a slowing economy, that could lead to more buyout-backed companies running into trouble. Rising long-term interest rates will also put pressure on private real estate valuations, where firms such as Blackstone and Brookfield have become some of the largest property owners globally. Private real estate valuations have traditionally been done using benchmark rates of 10 years or longer, which up until recent months had risen far less than short-term rates. Were longer term rates to stay high for a prolonged period, it may force property owners to cut valuations anew just as trillions of dollars in loans are due to mature in the coming years. Additional reporting by Mary McDougall in London Sign up to the Personal Finance newsletter, every weekday Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2023. All rights reserved. Lates chartistkao1      ( Date: 09-Oct-2023 21:39) Posted: 3.465%   The Singapore 10 Years Government Bond has a 3.465% yield (last update 9 Oct 2023 2:15 GMT+0). https://eservices.mas.gov.sg/statistics/fdanet/BenchmarkPricesAndYields.aspx https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/bond-selloff-threatens-hopes-for-economys-soft-landing-80bb152a

 

Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T& Cs and Copyright Policy. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found here.
https://www.ft.com/content/144c541a-1109-40c9-b74a-7d176ba90fc6

Dreamstime Who feels the pain from the bond sell-off? on x (opens in a new window) Who feels the pain from the bond sell-off? on facebook (opens in a new window) Who feels the pain from the bond sell-off? on linkedin (opens in a new window) current progress 4% Owen Walker, Ian Smith, Will Louch and Josephine Cumbo in London and Stephen Gandel, Antoine Gara and Harriet Clarfelt in New York October 5 2023 133 Print this page A sell-off in global bond markets has pushed borrowing costs to their highest levels in a decade or more. That means potentially heavy losses for banks, insurers, pension funds and asset managers that own trillions of dollars of sovereign and corporate debt after loading up in recent years. Policymakers and investors are wary that the latest round of sharp moves could inflict severe damage on various parts of the financial system. &ldquo We are watching this&thinsp .&thinsp .&thinsp .&thinsp very carefully to see if something breaks,&rdquo said Salman Ahmed, global head of macro at Fidelity International. US banks Paper losses on the most opaque part of US banks&rsquo bond portfolios are now close to $400bn &mdash an all-time high, and 10 per cent above the peak at the start of the year that caused the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank &mdash according to Matthew Anderson, an analyst at bond data firm Trepp. Most banks, and in particular the largest ones, will not have to sell and so will never realise those losses. But the implosion of midsized US lender SVB in March refocused the minds of regulators and investors on the risks lurking in bank bond portfolios. After receiving an avalanche of deposits from venture capital funds, SVB ramped up investment in a $120bn portfolio of highly rated government-backed securities. But when rates rose sharply last year, the value of the portfolio fell by $15bn, which was almost equal to the bank&rsquo s total capital, making it vulnerable to a wave of customers pulling their deposits. At the same time, higher rates create more incentive for depositors to move their money, forcing banks to pay up to keep accounts &mdash which ultimately hurts profits. Shares of Western Alliance Bancorp, a Phoenix-based regional bank that like the former SVB caters to cash-challenged start-ups, have fallen 20 per cent since bond yields began their renewed rise in late August. Among the big banks, Bank of America has been the worst performer. Shares of BofA &mdash which at the end of the second quarter had nearly $110bn in unrealised losses, the most out of any bank in the US &mdash hit a 52-week low on Wednesday of just below $26. In all, the shares of the US&rsquo s largest banks, as measured by the KBW Nasdaq Bank index, have dropped an average of 8.5 per cent in the past month, erasing tens of billions of dollars from investors&rsquo portfolios. European banks If paper losses on bond portfolios were realised they would have caused a 200 basis point hit to the common equity tier 1 ratios &mdash a measure of financial strength &mdash of the largest US lenders at the end of June, according to Stuart Graham, head of banks at Autonomous Research. By comparison, the impact for European lenders fell from 100 bps to 80 bps in the first half of this year, partly in response to banks reducing their bond portfolios. But Graham said he expected the impact to be higher once banks reported their third-quarter numbers. In response to SVB&rsquo s collapse, the European Central Bank carried out an industry-wide probe into eurozone bank exposure to rapidly rising interest rates to try to understand how risk could spread to other sectors. The results, published in July, showed the 104 banks supervised by the ECB had combined net unrealised losses of &euro 73bn in their bond portfolios in February. The analysis showed that those losses would increase by an additional &euro 155bn in the worst-case scenario of the regulator&rsquo s bank stress tests. &ldquo This should be regarded as an unlikely hypothetical outcome, as banks&rsquo amortised-cost portfolios are designed to be held to maturity and&thinsp .&thinsp .&thinsp .&thinsp banks would typically turn to repo transactions and other mitigating actions before liquidating their bond positions,&rdquo the ECB said. Insurance Life insurers are big holders of bonds, which they use to back liabilities such as pension obligations. Their share prices were hit hard following the collapse of SVB. Insurers can often hold bonds to maturity, riding out market falls, while higher interest rates generally lift their solvency levels. But the concern is that a speedy rise in rates encourages customers to cash in long-term products, forcing insurers to sell bonds and other matching assets at a loss. The worst-case scenario is that &ldquo policyholder behaviour changes such that the insurers become forced sellers&rdquo , said Douglas Baker, a director at Fitch Ratings. European insurers including Generali reported a rise in so-called lapses at the start of the year in countries such as Italy and France, particularly in policies sold through banks, where customers are more likely to switch. Generali said the picture had improved in the second quarter. The failure of Eurovita, a small Italian life insurer backed by UK private equity firm Cinven, was another sign of trouble. It was taken into special administration by the regulator this year after a build-up in unrealised losses due to rapidly rising rates, alongside what Italy&rsquo s central bank described as &ldquo inadequate risk management&rdquo , left it with a capital hole. Pensions In general, higher yields on government debt are good news for UK pension funds because it improves their funding position. But a year ago, a sudden sell-off in gilts following then-prime minister Liz Truss&rsquo s &ldquo mini&rdquo Budget sparked a crisis in the pensions industry. Many UK pension schemes use a strategy known as &ldquo liability-driven investment&rdquo which aims to hedge against moves in gilt yields and ensure long-term obligations to pensioners stay matched with long-term assets. As investors fretted about the scale of proposed government borrowing and dumped gilts, yields on UK government debt soared. That meant that the pension schemes&rsquo hedging strategies had to be supported with more collateral. To meet those collateral calls, pension funds cashed in their most liquid assets: gilts. That created a spiral where forced sales of gilts sent prices tumbling further and yields climbing higher &mdash and then required the pension funds to stump up yet more collateral. The speed and scale of the move in UK bond yields meant that many schemes could not find enough ready cash and had to sell less liquid assets, typically at a haircut. The latest rise in bond yields has once again led to pension funds facing collateral calls. This time, consultants say the system is coping due to better controls on leverage and liquidity. However, they warned that if bond yields continued to rise it could force some pension plans to dump less easily traded assets. &ldquo Further yield rises might test some funds with tighter liquidity buffers,&rdquo said Simeon Willis, chief investment officer with XPS, a pension investment adviser. &ldquo While there is no imminent possibility that the pension schemes are going to experience what they did a year ago from the rapid rise in gilt yields, what they are still exposed to is a longer-term persistent rise in yields chipping away at their asset base and leading them to the point where they need to further sell down illiquid assets, at a haircut.&rdquo Debt markets Corporate debt markets have also come under intensifying pressure from the sharp rise in government bond yields, which feeds through to companies&rsquo borrowing costs. The average yield on US junk bonds climbed above 9.3 per cent this week, up from less than 9 per cent at the end of September and 8.5 per cent a month earlier. In turn, the premium that lowly rated borrowers pay above the US government to issue debt &mdash a barometer of default risks &mdash has also risen. The moves have been more pronounced at the riskiest end of the credit spectrum, with the average spread on &ldquo triple C and lower&rdquo bonds expanding on Tuesday by its most in a day since March &mdash when banking sector ructions stoked worries over tougher lending standards. Many companies have also been able to hold off from refinancing debt, after taking advantage of ultra-low interest rates at the start of the coronavirus pandemic to borrow cheaply and push out maturities. However, a flood of debt will come due in 2025-26 &mdash and issuers of junk loans, which have floating interest rates, are already feeling the effects of US Federal Reserve tightening. Rising yields &ldquo put more pressure on companies that are more levered or properties that are more levered&rdquo , said Greg Peters, co-chief investment officer of PGIM Fixed Income. &ldquo You&rsquo re going to experience&thinsp .&thinsp .&thinsp . a higher than typical default and distressed rate environment as these companies that really survived largely in part due to cheap financing start to unwind.&rdquo Private equity The prospect of interest rates staying higher for longer is bad news for private equity on multiple fronts. Dealmaking had already dropped over the past 12 months as buyout firms struggled with the impact of rising borrowing costs. &ldquo Private equity has for a long time been synonymous with &lsquo leveraged buyout&rsquo , so it goes without saying that the &lsquo leverage&rsquo part becomes more expensive for current or prospective portfolio companies,&rdquo said Haakon Blakstad, chief commercial officer at Validus Risk Management. The slowdown in the deal cycle has made it more difficult for firms to sell assets and return money to their investors. And the ability of companies to service their debt is also starting to appear more strained. Researchers at Carlyle Group have warned that the rising cost of debt has dramatically lowered interest coverage ratios across the private equity universe, a metric that many lenders and rating agencies use as a gauge of whether companies can service their debts with operating profits. Together with inflation and a slowing economy, that could lead to more buyout-backed companies running into trouble. Rising long-term interest rates will also put pressure on private real estate valuations, where firms such as Blackstone and Brookfield have become some of the largest property owners globally. Private real estate valuations have traditionally been done using benchmark rates of 10 years or longer, which up until recent months had risen far less than short-term rates. Were longer term rates to stay high for a prolonged period, it may force property owners to cut valuations anew just as trillions of dollars in loans are due to mature in the coming years. Additional reporting by Mary McDougall in London Sign up to the Personal Finance newsletter, every weekday Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2023. All rights reserved. Lates

chartistkao1      ( Date: 09-Oct-2023 21:39) Posted: 3.465%   The Singapore 10 Years Government Bond has a 3.465% yield (last update 9 Oct 2023 2:15 GMT+0). https://eservices.mas.gov.sg/statistics/fdanet/BenchmarkPricesAndYields.aspx https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/bond-selloff-threatens-hopes-for-economys-soft-landing-80bb152a chartistkao1      ( Date: 09-Oct-2023 16:42) Posted: https://www.douyin.com/zhuanti/718079309637096454

 

chartistkao1      ( Date: 09-Oct-2023 16:42) Posted: https://www.douyin.com/zhuanti/7180793096370964540 chartistkao1      ( Date: 09-Oct-2023 16:36) Posted: after the 1997' s hk handover from uk to china https://m.yicai.com/news/5324725.htm

 

https://www.douyin.com/zhuanti/7180793096370964540

chartistkao1      ( Date: 09-Oct-2023 16:36) Posted: after the 1997' s hk handover from uk to china https://m.yicai.com/news/5324725.html chartistkao1      ( Date: 09-Oct-2023 16:34) Posted: during the 1970 oil crisis, when i was a small boy https://www.toutiao.com/article/6848060868601741836/?wid=1696840358946

 

after the 1997' s hk handover from uk to china
https://m.yicai.com/news/5324725.html

chartistkao1      ( Date: 09-Oct-2023 16:34) Posted: during the 1970 oil crisis, when i was a small boy https://www.toutiao.com/article/6848060868601741836/?wid=1696840358946   chartistkao1      ( Date: 09-Oct-2023 16:09) Posted: https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/speeches/2023/supporting-statement-by-minister-of-state-alvin-tan-on-singapore-anti-money-laundering-regime https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/ex-china-banker-wanted-in-655-million-fraud-case-repatriated https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4RjJKxsamQ https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/courts-crime/who-are-the-10-charged-following-the-billion-dollar-anti-money-laundering-raid-in-s-pore

 

during the 1970 oil crisis, when i was a small boy
https://www.toutiao.com/article/6848060868601741836/?wid=1696840358946
 

chartistkao1      ( Date: 09-Oct-2023 16:09) Posted: https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/speeches/2023/supporting-statement-by-minister-of-state-alvin-tan-on-singapore-anti-money-laundering-regime https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/ex-china-banker-wanted-in-655-million-fraud-case-repatriated https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4RjJKxsamQ https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/courts-crime/who-are-the-10-charged-following-the-billion-dollar-anti-money-laundering-raid-in-s-pore chartistkao1      ( Date: 09-Oct-2023 15:59) Posted: we need money from china if US economy  crashed in 2024 https://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmcA9LIIXWw

 

chartistkao1      ( Date: 09-Oct-2023 15:59) Posted: we need money from china if US economy  crashed in 2024 https://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmcA9LIIXWw chartistkao1      ( Date: 09-Oct-2023 15:49) Posted: china' s rich money will not go to US only one place to flow to is singapore https://www.straitstimes.com/business/china-s-rich-entrust-total-strangers-to-sneak-cash-out-of-the-country https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zqcf1r1zBxc will US stock market crashed affect singapore in 2024?

 

we need money from china if US economy  crashed in 2024

chartistkao1      ( Date: 09-Oct-2023 15:49) Posted: china' s rich money will not go to US only one place to flow to is singapore https://www.straitstimes.com/business/china-s-rich-entrust-total-strangers-to-sneak-cash-out-of-the-country https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zqcf1r1zBxc will US stock market crashed affect singapore in 2024? chartistkao1      ( Date: 09-Oct-2023 15:41) Posted: https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/08/dow-futures-open-180-points-lower-after-hamas-attack-against-israel.html time to seek safety in our a1 three sg babks in october 2023

 

china' s rich money will not go to US only one place to flow to is singapore

chartistkao1      ( Date: 09-Oct-2023 15:41) Posted: https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/08/dow-futures-open-180-points-lower-after-hamas-attack-against-israel.html time to seek safety in our a1 three sg babks in october 2023 chartistkao1      ( Date: 06-Oct-2023 14:09) Posted: can US afford another 50bp rate hikes after CITIGROUP managers are reviewing staff rosters to determine by November who will stay in place, be reassigned, or laid off during its biggest reorganisation in decades, according to a global memo to staff on Wednesday (Oct 4) seen by Reuters. &ldquo Some roles will change, new roles may be created, and roles that do not fit our new structure will be eliminated,&rdquo Sara Wechter, the bank&rsquo s chief human resources officer, wrote in the memo. &ldquo This next layer of change is scheduled to be announced in November.&rdquo Employees whose jobs are eliminated may be eligible to apply for other positions, and the company will offer severance pay and notice periods where eligible, according to the message. The contents of the memo have not previously been reported. Citi also convened a meeting of its managing directors on Wednesday, according to two sources familiar with the matter. Executives addressed the measures outlined in Wechter&rsquo s memo, one of the people said. Bankers had 15 minutes&rsquo advance notice about the meeting, which lasted only 30 minutes, the source said. Citi declined to comment on the global memo and the managing directors&rsquo meeting.

 

chartistkao1      ( Date: 06-Oct-2023 14:09) Posted: can US afford another 50bp rate hikes after CITIGROUP managers are reviewing staff rosters to determine by November who will stay in place, be reassigned, or laid off during its biggest reorganisation in decades, according to a global memo to staff on Wednesday (Oct 4) seen by Reuters. &ldquo Some roles will change, new roles may be created, and roles that do not fit our new structure will be eliminated,&rdquo Sara Wechter, the bank&rsquo s chief human resources officer, wrote in the memo. &ldquo This next layer of change is scheduled to be announced in November.&rdquo Employees whose jobs are eliminated may be eligible to apply for other positions, and the company will offer severance pay and notice periods where eligible, according to the message. The contents of the memo have not previously been reported. Citi also convened a meeting of its managing directors on Wednesday, according to two sources familiar with the matter. Executives addressed the measures outlined in Wechter&rsquo s memo, one of the people said. Bankers had 15 minutes&rsquo advance notice about the meeting, which lasted only 30 minutes, the source said. Citi declined to comment on the global memo and the managing directors&rsquo meeting.   chartistkao1      ( Date: 06-Oct-2023 13:45) Posted: the temple wish lists are more rain and wind to drive away theannoying haze,lower food cost and lower oil and water and transport cost and lower self imposed cost to drive up the price The RBI also maintained its policy stance of &ldquo withdrawal of accommodation&rdquo to ensure inflation progressively aligns with the committee&rsquo s target while remaining supportive of economic growth, Das said. Five of six committee members voted in favour of the stance. Annual retail inflation eased to 6.83 per cent in August, from a 15-month high of 7.44 per cent in July, but remained well above the central bank&rsquo s 2 per cent to 6 per cent comfort band. Sharp spikes in food prices have been the main driver as erratic weather conditions hurt the production of staples such as vegetables, milk and cereals. High inflation has put the focus back on liquidity management amid the reduced ability to keep hiking rates at the risk of hurting growth and commentary and further measures, if any, are being closely monitored by market participants. REUTERS

 

can US afford another 50bp rate hikes after
CITIGROUP managers are reviewing staff rosters to determine by November who will stay in place, be reassigned, or laid off during its biggest reorganisation in decades, according to a global memo to staff on Wednesday (Oct 4) seen by Reuters.
&ldquo Some roles will change, new roles may be created, and roles that do not fit our new structure will be eliminated,&rdquo Sara Wechter, the bank&rsquo s chief human resources officer, wrote in the memo. &ldquo This next layer of change is scheduled to be announced in November.&rdquo
Employees whose jobs are eliminated may be eligible to apply for other positions, and the company will offer severance pay and notice periods where eligible, according to the message. The contents of the memo have not previously been reported.
Citi also convened a meeting of its managing directors on Wednesday, according to two sources familiar with the matter. Executives addressed the measures outlined in Wechter&rsquo s memo, one of the people said.
Bankers had 15 minutes&rsquo advance notice about the meeting, which lasted only 30 minutes, the source said.
Citi declined to comment on the global memo and the managing directors&rsquo meeting.

 

chartistkao1      ( Date: 06-Oct-2023 13:45) Posted: the temple wish lists are more rain and wind to drive away theannoying haze,lower food cost and lower oil and water and transport cost and lower self imposed cost to drive up the price The RBI also maintained its policy stance of &ldquo withdrawal of accommodation&rdquo to ensure inflation progressively aligns with the committee&rsquo s target while remaining supportive of economic growth, Das said. Five of six committee members voted in favour of the stance. Annual retail inflation eased to 6.83 per cent in August, from a 15-month high of 7.44 per cent in July, but remained well above the central bank&rsquo s 2 per cent to 6 per cent comfort band. Sharp spikes in food prices have been the main driver as erratic weather conditions hurt the production of staples such as vegetables, milk and cereals. High inflation has put the focus back on liquidity management amid the reduced ability to keep hiking rates at the risk of hurting growth and commentary and further measures, if any, are being closely monitored by market participants. REUTERS   chartistkao1      ( Date: 06-Oct-2023 13:41) Posted: more go to the various  temples  in singapore than march 2020 to pray for health and prosperity when THE Reserve Bank of India&rsquo s (RBI) key lending rate was held steady at a fourth consecutive policy meeting on Friday (Oct 6), as widely expected, with investors more focused on the regulator&rsquo s liquidity management plan amid a resurgence in inflation. The country&rsquo s monetary policy committee kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.50 per cent, in a unanimous decision. Most economists polled by Reuters had expected it to keep rates steady. It has raised rates by 250 basis points (bps) since May 2022 in a bid to cool surging prices.

 

the temple wish lists are more rain and wind to drive away theannoying haze,lower food cost and lower oil and water and transport cost and lower self imposed cost to drive up the price
The RBI also maintained its policy stance of &ldquo withdrawal of accommodation&rdquo to ensure inflation progressively aligns with the committee&rsquo s target while remaining supportive of economic growth, Das said.
Five of six committee members voted in favour of the stance.
Annual retail inflation eased to 6.83 per cent in August, from a 15-month high of 7.44 per cent in July, but remained well above the central bank&rsquo s 2 per cent to 6 per cent comfort band.
Sharp spikes in food prices have been the main driver as erratic weather conditions hurt the production of staples such as vegetables, milk and cereals.
High inflation has put the focus back on liquidity management amid the reduced ability to keep hiking rates at the risk of hurting growth and commentary and further measures, if any, are being closely monitored by market participants. REUTERS

 

chartistkao1      ( Date: 06-Oct-2023 13:41) Posted: more go to the various  temples  in singapore than march 2020 to pray for health and prosperity when THE Reserve Bank of India&rsquo s (RBI) key lending rate was held steady at a fourth consecutive policy meeting on Friday (Oct 6), as widely expected, with investors more focused on the regulator&rsquo s liquidity management plan amid a resurgence in inflation. The country&rsquo s monetary policy committee kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.50 per cent, in a unanimous decision. Most economists polled by Reuters had expected it to keep rates steady. It has raised rates by 250 basis points (bps) since May 2022 in a bid to cool surging prices.   chartistkao1      ( Date: 06-Oct-2023 13:39) Posted: march 2020 to march 2021 we were screwed by us and china border closure supply chain disruption,april 2021 to feb 2022 screwed by covid 19 outbreak and the circuit breaker restrictions and then rusiia and ukraine war, then march 2022 to october 2023 all screwed by US 12x rates hike to 5.75% India central bank keeps key rate steady liquidity measures in focus THE Reserve Bank of India&rsquo s (RBI) key lending rate was held steady at a fourth consecutive policy meeting on Friday (Oct 6)...

 

more go to the various  temples  in singapore than march 2020 to pray for health and prosperity when
THE Reserve Bank of India&rsquo s (RBI) key lending rate was held steady at a fourth consecutive policy meeting on Friday (Oct 6), as widely expected, with investors more focused on the regulator&rsquo s liquidity management plan amid a resurgence in inflation.
The country&rsquo s monetary policy committee kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.50 per cent, in a unanimous decision. Most economists polled by Reuters had expected it to keep rates steady.
It has raised rates by 250 basis points (bps) since May 2022 in a bid to cool surging prices.
 

chartistkao1      ( Date: 06-Oct-2023 13:39) Posted: march 2020 to march 2021 we were screwed by us and china border closure supply chain disruption,april 2021 to feb 2022 screwed by covid 19 outbreak and the circuit breaker restrictions and then rusiia and ukraine war, then march 2022 to october 2023 all screwed by US 12x rates hike to 5.75% India central bank keeps key rate steady liquidity measures in focus THE Reserve Bank of India&rsquo s (RBI) key lending rate was held steady at a fourth consecutive policy meeting on Friday (Oct 6)... chartistkao1      ( Date: 06-Oct-2023 13:14) Posted: if asean companies fail they will buy them like this Spokespeople for ExxonMobil and Pioneer declined to comment. The  Wall Street Journal  first reported on Thursday that a deal is imminent. Pioneer was long seen as an attractive target for ExxonMobil as it has a significant presence in some of the most productive areas of the Permian shale basin. ExxonMobil, which is valued at about US$436 billion, last year earned a record US$55.7 billion on sky-high oil and gas prices and ended the year with US$29.6 billion in cash and equivalents

 

march 2020 to march 2021 we were screwed by us and china border closure supply chain disruption,april 2021 to feb 2022 screwed by covid 19 outbreak and the circuit breaker restrictions and then rusiia and ukraine war, then march 2022 to october 2023 all screwed by US 12x rates hike to 5.75%

India central bank keeps key rate steady liquidity measures in focus

chartistkao1      ( Date: 06-Oct-2023 13:14) Posted: if asean companies fail they will buy them like this Spokespeople for ExxonMobil and Pioneer declined to comment. The  Wall Street Journal  first reported on Thursday that a deal is imminent. Pioneer was long seen as an attractive target for ExxonMobil as it has a significant presence in some of the most productive areas of the Permian shale basin. ExxonMobil, which is valued at about US$436 billion, last year earned a record US$55.7 billion on sky-high oil and gas prices and ended the year with US$29.6 billion in cash and equivalents   chartistkao1      ( Date: 06-Oct-2023 13:10) Posted: America is too big to fail! ExxonMobil in advanced talks for US$60 billion acquisition of Pioneer: sources Published Fri, Oct 06, 2023 · 10:35 am EXXONMOBIL is in advanced talks to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources in a deal that could value the Permian shale basin producer at about US$60 billion, sources familiar with the matter said on Friday (Oct 6). The acquisition would expand ExxonMobil&rsquo s footprint in one of the most lucrative areas of the US oil patch. Pioneer, with a market capitalisation of about US$50 billion, is the third-largest producer of oil in the Permian basin after Chevron and ConocoPhillips. If the negotiations conclude successfully, an agreement could be reached in the coming days, the three sources said, asking not to be identified because the matter is confidential.