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801-820 of 1114
1.73 now.
Should hit 1.80 soon.
Should hit 1.80 soon.
UOB Kay Hian downgrades First Resources to ' hold' as analysts look to 2H21 for better results
Analysts have had mixed reactions to First Resources' announcement of its 1HFY2021 ended June results on August 13 which saw earnings of US$32.6 million ($44.3 million), below consensus estimates.UOB Kay Hian has downgraded its rating to " hold" with a lower target price of $1.40 from $1.50 previously. Maybank Kim Eng has kept its " buy" call but with a lower target price of $1.81, down from $1.88 previously.
Meanwhile, RHB kept its " buy" rating and target price of $1.50 unchanged.
All three brokerages noted that First Resources' lower earnings was mainly driven by lower average selling price (ASP) arising from earlier committed sales that were priced before factoring the higher levy that took effect in December 2020.
Nonetheless, analysts expect a much stronger 2HFY2021 performance from the company, driven by higher ASP reflective of current higher crude palm oil (CPO) prices as well as favourable revision in the export tax structure that came into effect on July 2.
UOB Kay Hian and Maybank Kim Eng also point out that First Resources has an inventory build-up of some 20,000 tonnes as at June due to some delayed shipments and deliveries, which may translate to higher sales in 2HFY2021.
UOB Kay Hian analysts Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li and Leow Huey Chen highlight that First Resources' 1HFY2021 earnings accounted for only around 15% of their full-year estimate, coming in below expectations.
While the analysts expect First Resources' strong downstream performance to carry into the 2HFY2021, they point out that the company' s fertiliser application was behind schedule in the first half of the year, accounting for less than 50% of its full-year target due to the high rainfall at the start of the year.
To that end, Yow and Leow have tweaked their earnings estimates for FY2021 and FY2022 down by 14.3% and 4.5% respectively to account for higher fertiliser cost, though this will be partially offset by better downstream margins.
Maybank Kim Eng analyst Ong Chee Ting considers the " slow start" for First Resources' earnings within his expectations.
He maintains his " buy" call for the company in view of the better performance expected for the second half of the year driven by higher output and CPO prices. " Following our industry-wide CPO price upgrade, we have raised our FY2021-2023 EPS by 6%/4%/4% respectively," he remarks.
His has rolled forward his valuations to FY2022. His revised target price of $1.81 is based on 14 times P/E which is pegged at one standard deviation below its five-year mean to reflect slowing growth prospects.
RHB' s Singapore research team believes investors should look past First Resources 1HFY2021 to the better performance in the second half. " We make no changes to our forecasts. We believe 2H2021 will be the much stronger half given the prevailing higher prices," the team remarks.
As at 12.09pm, shares in First Resources are trading up 2 cents or 1.42% higher at $1.43.
UOBKH downgrades First Resources to ' hold' after earnings disappointment
UOB Kay Hian (UOBKH) has downgraded its call on First Resources from " buy" to " hold" with a lower price target of S$1.40 compared to S$1.50 previously.The move comes after First Resources on Friday posted a 16.7 per cent fall in net profit to US$32.6 million for the six months ended June 30, missing UOBKH and consensus estimates due to lower-than-expected average selling price (ASP) and delays of sales bookings.
In a report on Monday, the brokerage' s analysts opined that the group' s H2 profits should come in " significantly better" on recovering ASP and sales volume, as lower price contracts have been fully delivered in the period under review.
" We expect H2 FY2021 earnings to improve as Indonesia has reduced the export levies which will help to reduce the export tax burden for exporters in H2. The revised export levy structure would also result in higher net selling price. H2 ASP will be more reflective of the current high selling price," they said.
Noting an inventory build-up of 20,000 tonnes as at June 2021, the analysts are also expecting higher sales volumes during the quarter as market players held back their orders in Q2 in anticipation of Indonesia' s downward revision of export levies, which was effective from July 2021.
UOBKH has nonetheless revised its earnings estimates for FY2021 and FY2022 down by 14.3 per cent and 4.5 per cent to factor in higher fertiliser costs, partially offset by improved downstream margins.
The resultant target price revision reflects a dividend yield of 5.1 per cent and a payout of 50 per cent, as well as a valuation pegged at 11 times FY2022 price-to-earnings (P/E), which is two standard deviation points below the stock' s five-year average mean.
Likewise, Maybank Kim Eng (Maybank KE) is expecting a much-stronger H2 for First Resources on expectations of better fresh fruit bunches output and crude palm oil (CPO) prices, despite noting a " slow start" in H1 although the results were still considered within the brokerage' s expectations.
It maintains " buy" on the stock while lowering its target price to S$1.81 from S$1.88 to base its valuation on a rolled-forward 14 times FY2022 P/E, pegged at one standard deviation point below the five-year mean on " slowing growth prospects" .
" Following our industry-wide CPO price upgrade, we have raised our FY2021 to FY2023 earnings per share by 6 per cent, 4 per cent and 4 per cent respectively," said Maybank KE in a report issued on Sunday.
Shares of First Resources were trading S$0.01 or 0.7 per cent higher at S$1.41 as at 11.40am on Monday.
First Resources H1 net profit falls 16.7% to US$32.6m on higher export taxes
Despite profit drop, palm oil producer sees 48.4% surge in sales
PALM oil producer First Resources on Friday announced a 16.7 per cent drop in net profit to US$32.6 million for the six months ended June 30, from US$39.1 million a year ago.
Earnings per share fell to 2.06 US cents in H1, from 2.47 cents in the year-ago period.
This was mainly due to the impact of higher export taxes from the progressive export levy structure implemented in Indonesia in December 2020.
The decline came despite a 48.4 per cent surge in sales to US$412.9 million, driven by higher average selling prices as well as stronger production and sales volumes.
Fresh fruit bunches harvested increased by 11.3 per cent, while crude palm oil production volumes rose by 15.4 per cent.
Gross profit was 51.9 per cent higher at US$173.3 million for the first half, with gross profit margin edging up one percentage point to 42 per cent.
" Palm oil prices had been volatile during the first half of the year, driven by price movements in the rest of the vegetable oil complex and expectations of impending changes to the export levy structure in Indonesia," said Ciliandra Fangiono, chief executive officer of First Resources, in a bourse filing on Friday morning.
The company noted that effective July 2, Indonesia has reduced its export levies for palm oil products.
It said this would help to reduce the export tax burden for exporters in the second half of the year.
" Looking ahead, palm' s attractive relative pricing against competing edible oils is expected to lend support to prices, while the lower export levy in Indonesia will help to reduce the export tax burden for exporters in the second half of the year," he added.
The company has declared a higher interim dividend of 1.25 Singapore cents, to be paid out on Sept 9. This is higher than the interim dividend of one cent in the corresponding period a year ago.
First Resources H1 net profit falls 16.7% to US$32.6m on higher export taxes
Palm oil producer First Resources on Friday announced a 16.7 per cent drop in net profit to US$32.6 million for the six months ended June 30, from US$39.1 million a year ago.Earnings per share fell to 2.06 US cents in H1, from 2.47 cents in the year-ago period.
This was mainly due to the impact of higher export taxes from the progressive export levy structure implemented in Indonesia since December 2020.
The decline came despite a 48.4 per cent surge in sales to US$412.9 million, driven by higher average selling prices as well as stronger production and sales volumes.
Fresh fruit bunches harvested increased by 11.3 per cent, while crude palm oil production volumes rose by 15.4 per cent.
Gross profit was 51.9 per cent higher at US$173.3 million for the first half, with gross profit margin edging up one percentage point to 42 per cent.
" Palm oil prices had been volatile during the first half of the year, driven by price movements in the rest of the vegetable oil complex and expectations of impending changes to the export levy structure in Indonesia," said Ciliandra Fangiono, CEO of First Resources, in a bourse filing on Friday morning.
The company noted that, effective July 2, Indonesia has reduced its export levies for palm oil products. It said this would help to reduce the export tax burden for exporters in the second half of the year.
" Looking ahead, palm' s attractive relative pricing against competing edible oils is expected to lend support to prices whilst the lower export levy in Indonesia will help to reduce the export tax burden for exporters in the second half of the year," he added.
The company has declared a higher interim dividend of 1.25 Singapore cents, to be paid out on Sept 9. This is higher than the interim dividend of one cent in the corresponding period a year ago.
Shares of First Resources closed 1.4 per cent or S$0.02 higher at S$1.41 on Thursday, before the results were released.
First Resources achieves revenue growth of 48.4% and EBITDA of US$95.5 million in 1H2021
&bull Revenue boosted by stronger production volumes and palm oil prices although earnings were dampened by higher export taxes
&bull Declares an interim dividend of 1.25 Singapore cents per share
https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/7HJNPO0UR1YEQJ0O/678651_First_Resources_1H2021_Press_Release.pdf
&bull Revenue boosted by stronger production volumes and palm oil prices although earnings were dampened by higher export taxes
&bull Declares an interim dividend of 1.25 Singapore cents per share
https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/7HJNPO0UR1YEQJ0O/678651_First_Resources_1H2021_Press_Release.pdf
The poorer nations in Asia will still need the CPO for various uses including energy. Afterall bio diesel is still clean. When it comes to paying, many countries will think of their wallets first
This report came in the midst of FR moving uptrend, MACD averages moving up and diverging.
This report came in the midst of FR moving uptrend, MACD averages moving up and diverging.
PhillipTan ( Date: 21-Jul-2021 02:59) Posted:
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RHB slashes target prices for plantation stocks amid ESG concerns
RHB has cut the agriculture plantation sector to " underweight" , from " neutral" previously, as environmental, social and governance (ESG) concerns continue to weigh on share prices." We believe this devaluation of plantation stocks' price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios will likely be permanent, as more issues may crop up over time, and as investors become more ESG-aware and start pricing it into their investment decisions," the research house said in a report on Friday.
RHB has lowered its valuation targets for all the plantation stocks under its coverage. " We believe the sector should no longer trade at a premium to the market," it added.
Worst-hit in the round of devaluations is palm oil plantation owner Golden Agri-Resources, which saw its target price slashed by 26.7 per cent to S$0.22, from S$0.30 previously. RHB has also downgraded its recommendation for Golden Agri to " neutral" from " trading buy" .
" While Golden Agri is also trading at single-digit P/Es, we believe its close correlation with and high sensitivity to crude palm oil (CPO) prices are likely to hamper its share price performance in the medium term," the research house said.
RHB added that it expects CPO prices to start declining in Q4 2021, and stay in a southward trend in H1 2022.
Meanwhile, RHB is maintaining its " buy" calls on Wilmar International and First Resources, but lowering their target prices by 10.9 per cent to S$5.75 and by 6.3 per cent to S$1.50, respectively.
It is also staying " neutral" on Bumitama Agri, and cutting its target price by 10 per cent to S$0.45.
" The negative news flow on the ESG front is likely to hamper any price recovery for the sector, and things may get worse before they get better," RHB said. " As more and more scrutiny is piled upon this sector, share prices and valuations will get dragged along with it."
Shares of Golden Agri, Wilmar, First Resources and Bumitama are all trading flat - at 23.5 Singapore cents, S$4.38, S$1.35 and S$0.46, respectively - as at 11.25am on Friday.
UOB maintains ' market weight' for plantation sector, First Resources among sector picks
UOB Kay Hian is keeping its " market weight" rating for the regional plantation sector as crude palm oil (CPO) prices are expected to remain weak, amidst the backdrop of a growing shift towards renewable diesel.Analysts Leow Huey Chuen and Jacquelyn Yow highlight that the global trade for conventional palm-oil-based biodiesel is expected to decline, while a huge growth in the global trade for renewable diesel, which uses vegoil, is expected to jump.
" This is mainly coming from the conversion of new refinery capacity (especially in the US) as well as the expansion of existing capacity (Neste). The growth of renewable diesel production is also pushed by the growing demand in the US market and a potential new demand from other countries such as Canada," the analysts write in a July 16 research note.
The way Leow and Yow see it, palm oil may not directly benefit from this trend towards renewable diesel, as production in the US and Europe, the largest market producer and consumer of biodiesel, will primarily rely on soybean oil (SBO) and rapeseed oil (RPO).
However, they note that palm oil may be an indirect beneficiary by replacing SBO and RPO in the food and industrial chemical markets as well as animal feed.
Leow and Yow have maintained their CPO price assumptions of RM3,000 ($966) per tonne and RM2,600 per tonne for 2021 and 2022 respectively for now, though they are looking to revise the assumptions after the 2Q2021 results announcement in August.
" We expect CPO ASP for 2021 to beat our assumption of RM3,000/tonne and come in at RM3,300-3,500/tonne," they remark.
Nonetheless, the analysts highlight the overall downward trend in CPO prices, pointing out that in the first five months of 2021, CPO average spot price was at RM4,119.50 but has since weakened to RM3,592 on Jun 22. CPO futures for July and September are trading at RM3,631/tonne and RM3,465/tonnes respectively.
To that end, they remain bearish on the sector given the weak outlook. " The sector is likely to continue underperforming the market because of lower earnings leverage to rising CPO prices, production uncertainties and investors' constraints on concerns over environmental, social and governance (ESG) compliance," they explain.
First Resources remains the sole Singapore counter among their list of stock picks for the sector, chosen by virtue of " decent" dividend yield and " undemanding" valuation. " Our picks are Hap Seng Plantations, Sarawak Oil Palms, First Resources, Astra Agro Lestari and Tunas Baru Lampung," the analysts say.
The analysts have a " buy" rating on First Resources with a target price of $1.65.
As at 9.10am, shares in First Resources are trading up 2 cents or 1.53% higher at $1.33.
India' s cut in duties on CPO is slightly positive for counters such as First Resources and Wilmar
CGS-CIMB Research analysts Ivy Ng and Nagulan Ravi are keeping their &ldquo neutral&rdquo stance on the agribusiness sector.This comes as India has lowered its basic import duty on crude palm oil (CPO) to 10% from 15%, which took effect from June 30.
The cut will be effective for a period of three months, and will reduce the effective tax rate on CPO to 30.25% from 35.75% previously.
In addition, imports of RBD palm olein will be allowed without restrictions till the end of December.
It can be imported through all ports in India with the exception of the southern state of Kerala.
The movements, according to Ng and Ravi, comes as no surprise amid talk that the Indian government was looking through a proposal to cut edible oil duties.
While the news to allow imports of RBD palm olein without restrictions will negatively impact the Indian palm oil refining industry, Ng and Ravi view the news as positive for upstream plantation companies including First Resources.
The news will also positively impact Malaysian/Indonesian refiners like Wilmar International.
Ng and Ravi have kept &ldquo add&rdquo on both First Resources and Wilmar with target price estimates of $1.69 and $6.15.
To the analysts, First Resources has &ldquo strong output growth prospects&rdquo due to its young estates and undemanding valuation at 14.1 times price-to-earnings (P/E) for the FY2020.
Wilmar, too, has attractive valuations, with growth potential in China.
&ldquo Key catalysts are better-than-expected earnings due to strong CPO prices and crushing activities and rising interest in Wilmar as a cheaper and more liquid entry into Yihai Kerry Arawana,&rdquo they write in a July 2 report.
As at 4.23pm, shares in First Resources are trading at $1.34, or 1.42 times P/B, according to CGS-CIMB&rsquo s estimates, while shares in Wilmar are trading at $4.64 or 1.08 times P/B.
Observations
1) For the past 5 to 6 days, price fluctuating between 1.33 and 1.36.
At 1.36 - shortiest will shoot px down to 1.33/1.34
At 1.33/1.34, some buyers to buy up all the way to 1.36
2) Shortiest have been active in this stock every day in June - refer below
https://sginvestors.io/sgx/stock/eb5-first-resources/share-price-history
Can investors do this to weaken the shortiest group and see if the price can go up
Investors, retailers - place all your share high say $1.65 - By doing this, there will be much lesser shares available to short sellers. Hence reducing shares borrowing to short sellers
Lets try this for 1 month.
1) For the past 5 to 6 days, price fluctuating between 1.33 and 1.36.
At 1.36 - shortiest will shoot px down to 1.33/1.34
At 1.33/1.34, some buyers to buy up all the way to 1.36
2) Shortiest have been active in this stock every day in June - refer below
https://sginvestors.io/sgx/stock/eb5-first-resources/share-price-history
Can investors do this to weaken the shortiest group and see if the price can go up
Investors, retailers - place all your share high say $1.65 - By doing this, there will be much lesser shares available to short sellers. Hence reducing shares borrowing to short sellers
Lets try this for 1 month.
Looks like timing is about right for loading:-
Share Buy Back - Daily Share Buy-Back Notice::Share Buy Back - Daily Share Buy-Back Notice
https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporateannouncements/V2XFWZSUM733E1D4/985182906be23a846007a1e3767eebd620ef73a33701ab6f21ebd28185dce922
Share Buy Back - Daily Share Buy-Back Notice::Share Buy Back - Daily Share Buy-Back Notice
https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporateannouncements/V2XFWZSUM733E1D4/985182906be23a846007a1e3767eebd620ef73a33701ab6f21ebd28185dce922
Ironically, this counter will fare more badly the higher the palm oil prices, due to forward sales contract entered earlier and progressive export tax levy. It would do better if palm oil prices drop. What a dilemma....need to wait 2H, for new contract prices.
First Resources Q1 net profit falls by 60.5% on higher export taxes
FIRST Resources on Monday reported net profit of US$8.8 million for the first quarter ended March 31, down 60.5 per cent from US$22.2 million the year before.
This came despite an increase in sales, reflecting the impact of higher export taxes from the new export levy structure implemented in Indonesia since December 2020, the palm oil producer said in a business update.
Sales rose by 40.3 per cent to US$196.9 million, from US$140.4 million the year prior, mainly due to the recovery in production volumes and yields.
The group saw an 18.1 per cent increase in crude palm oil (CPO) production to 212,564 tonnes from 179,997 tonnes in Q1 2020. Palm kernel production was up 15.9 per cent to 46,971 tonnes, from 40,534 tonnes the year before.
The amount of fresh fruit bunches harvested stood at 797,432 tonnes, up 12.3 per cent from 709,977 tonnes in Q1 2020.
First Resources said under the new levy structure, the levy payable by exporters for every tonne of CPO exported rose from a flat rate of US$55 per tonne to a progressive system wherein the levy increases by US$15 per tonne for every US$25 per tonne of increase in market CPO price. The export levy amounts also vary depending on product type, with that for processed products lower than that for CPO.
" While palm oil prices have rallied and are expected to remain supportive, our H1 2021 results may not be able to enjoy the upside from subsequent increases in market CPO prices due to forward sales entered into previously, whilst having to bear the higher export levies from the higher market CPO prices," First Resources said.
The group expects overall output growth for the full year from a recovery in yields.
" On a full-year basis, there can still be some price upside from remaining unhedged volumes, especially in H2 2021, which is also expected to be seasonally stronger in terms of production volumes," it added.
Revenue up 40%, profits down 60%, what a letdown....
Ya, palm oil prices so much higher now, and FR to increase dividend payout to 50%.
alwayshopeful ( Date: 12-May-2021 11:31) Posted:
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RHB upgrades First Resources to ' buy' , raises target price
RHB has upgraded palm oil producer First Resources to a " buy" from " neutral" , and raised the target price to S$1.70 from S$1.60 due to assumptions of " boosting crude palm oil (CPO) prices" .
The research house also raised its estimated CPO prices to RM3,200 per tonne from RM2,650 for 2021, and RM2,800 from RM2,600 for 2022.
However, RHB said that it would roll forward its valuations to 2022, as it believed that " investors should start to look ahead to identify winners, even under a lower-price environment" .
This is because the risk for prices are " on the downside from hereon" , and that the sector' s share price performance could also be " hampered by environmental, social and corporate governance concerns" going forward.
Based on latest forecasts by Oil World and the United States Department of Agriculture, the supply and demand of oils and fats and CPO should be " relatively tight in 2021, although balanced by " relatively muted demand" . Further, tight supply and demand numbers will likely keep oilseed and vegetable oil prices elevated throughout 2021, RHB said.
Due to increased planting activities of oilseeds to take advantage of current high prices, RHB believes that soya bean and other oilseed prices will moderate in 2022, along with CPO prices.
RHB also believes that stock to usage ratios will see an increase to an estimated 17 per cent in 2022, up from 16.2 per cent in 2021, keeping CPO prices above the 20-year historical average of RM2,500 per tonne.
Given the rising stock to usage ratio trend, RHB highlighted that CPO prices will likely be lower year on year in 2022.
However, it noted that the impact of the CPO price increase is not as significant for First Resources, given its forward sales locked in for 2021 and the impact of Indonesia' s export tax and levy.
As such, RHB has raised First Resources' earnings by 11 per cent for FY2021 and by 4-9 per cent for FY2022-2023.
It also said the stock is now trading at " more reasonable levels" . RHB has rolled its valuation forward to 2022 with a lower price to earnings (PE) target of 13 times from 14 times, as the research house expects the PE to return to the historical mean when CPO prices normalise.
mkt bull run...econ recovery vry well...tis babe still got lots of room to go higher....q to add more babe....
tis babe mkt float abt 17% niah...easy privatise...am ready to hoot more if it come to me....good babe to long.....
halleluyah ( Date: 01-Apr-2021 14:05) Posted:
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Accumulate 1.41...ready to run up...