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danger ( Date: 13-Nov-2020 16:42) Posted:
danger ( Date: 13-Nov-2020 13:31) Posted:
Attractive ride at -2SD historical mean. Trading at 1.2x PB (-2SD of historical mean) as ROE jumps to ~9% (FY21F), ComfortDelgro& rsquo s (CD) current price seems unjustified. Investors should look beyond FY20F. Reiterate BUY.
Consolidation of P2P industry. We are looking at smaller private rental car fleet providers exiting the market, bringing a balance to the point-to-point (P2P) supply-demand dynamics.
Phase 3 re-opening could be another trigger. Tracking mobility data, people are now moving about more. With sustained low infection rates, a Phase 3 re-opening could be a near term catalyst.
Our TP is raised to S$ 1.96 as we revise our valuation peg to 1.6x FY21F P/BV, which is -1 S.D. of its historical average, on expectations of ROE jumping to c.9% in FY21F, after a dismal FY20F. The counter is trading below 1.2x P/BV, or -2 S.D. of its average |
danger ( Date: 13-Nov-2020 16:11) Posted:
where is conman and his good old bedtime dinosaur stories ?
And his 20 cents short ? |
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alamak conman still talking down CDG until today
HUAT how many times already leh ....
No one is at fault. Money is at fault. Taxi drivers chut patterns because they want to be appropriately compensated. So if you want to shit and want them to wait for you but you dont even want to promise some tips, they will say no. They want cash payment because many people who pay with cash will pay some tips. The source of all this is the high-costs-low-fares environment taxi drivers work in.
Uber has a big psychology department to study drivers' and drivers' mind and the solution is to make the riders pay more for extra requests like extra stops, being late, high demand time, etc. Grab is a copy-cat of Uber. Both are majority-owned by Softbank so they share notes with one other.
CDG has no psychology department. But it does have a investigation and enforcement department. If you are not happy, just call to complain. The next day you might find the same driver driving Transcab, Prime, Silver Cab or Grab. One minus for CDG but one plus for the others.
zandlery ( Date: 15-Nov-2020 21:27) Posted:
Plus taxi drivers still old school attitude... Oh... Cash only... Credit card cannot... Oh... Change shift... Bye..
That sway ppl to use grab to lsser themselves from this hassle...
Conman ( Date: 15-Nov-2020 21:22) Posted:
People are aware of Grab's ridiculous surges but they have no choice because taxis have lost their critical mass. You can try to flag for a taxi at the curbside and you will know what I mean.
Now 9 out of 10 riders will use Grab app which will assure them the cars they want because ALL PHV drivers use it. Other apps are good as reference but if the fares offered are no good, drivers will not accept the hobs on offered.
CDG is only an in-house app used only by CDG drivers (not even orher taxi drivers). CDG has lost its critical mass hence at high-demand time, it will not be easy for riders to get their taxis. So they turn to Grab. They have no choice. And after a while, they only use Grab app.
In my research, for an app to be responsive, the app owner must have at least 30,000 drivers deployed at every corner of Singapore. Before Uber left, it had 42,000. Now PHV have 72,000, most of them with a HP mounted on the windscreen with the Grab app on.
If CDG has 8,000 taxis, we can expect only perhaps 6,000 on the road. The other 2,000 are either in the workshop or parked in the HDB carparks because human need rest.. You can go to any carpark to see for yourself.
For an app to be useful, it must have a big mass of drivets using. Linking up with banks will not help.
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Plus taxi drivers still old school attitude... Oh... Cash only... Credit card cannot... Oh... Change shift... Bye..
That sway ppl to use grab to lsser themselves from this hassle...
Conman ( Date: 15-Nov-2020 21:22) Posted:
People are aware of Grab's ridiculous surges but they have no choice because taxis have lost their critical mass. You can try to flag for a taxi at the curbside and you will know what I mean.
Now 9 out of 10 riders will use Grab app which will assure them the cars they want because ALL PHV drivers use it. Other apps are good as reference but if the fares offered are no good, drivers will not accept the hobs on offered.
CDG is only an in-house app used only by CDG drivers (not even orher taxi drivers). CDG has lost its critical mass hence at high-demand time, it will not be easy for riders to get their taxis. So they turn to Grab. They have no choice. And after a while, they only use Grab app.
In my research, for an app to be responsive, the app owner must have at least 30,000 drivers deployed at every corner of Singapore. Before Uber left, it had 42,000. Now PHV have 72,000, most of them with a HP mounted on the windscreen with the Grab app on.
If CDG has 8,000 taxis, we can expect only perhaps 6,000 on the road. The other 2,000 are either in the workshop or parked in the HDB carparks because human need rest.. You can go to any carpark to see for yourself.
For an app to be useful, it must have a big mass of drivets using. Linking up with banks will not help.
Entropy72 ( Date: 15-Nov-2020 20:02) Posted:
| 3 times more is very significant. Customers willing to pay so high during peak period, or simply because Grab offers more customers to its driver partners (less idle time between trips)? CDG can offer the same dynamic pricing and integrate its booking app to more popular apps such as local banks / NETS / AXS to capture more eyeballs. Anything stopping them from doing so |
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People are aware of Grab's ridiculous surges but they have no choice because taxis have lost their critical mass. You can try to flag for a taxi at the curbside and you will know what I mean.
Now 9 out of 10 riders will use Grab app which will assure them the cars they want because ALL PHV drivers use it. Other apps are good as reference but if the fares offered are no good, drivers will not accept the hobs on offered.
CDG is only an in-house app used only by CDG drivers (not even orher taxi drivers). CDG has lost its critical mass hence at high-demand time, it will not be easy for riders to get their taxis. So they turn to Grab. They have no choice. And after a while, they only use Grab app.
In my research, for an app to be responsive, the app owner must have at least 30,000 drivers deployed at every corner of Singapore. Before Uber left, it had 42,000. Now PHV have 72,000, most of them with a HP mounted on the windscreen with the Grab app on.
If CDG has 8,000 taxis, we can expect only perhaps 6,000 on the road. The other 2,000 are either in the workshop or parked in the HDB carparks because human need rest.. You can go to any carpark to see for yourself.
For an app to be useful, it must have a big mass of drivets using. Linking up with banks will not help.
Entropy72 ( Date: 15-Nov-2020 20:02) Posted:
3 times more is very significant. Customers willing to pay so high during peak period, or simply because Grab offers more customers to its driver partners (less idle time between trips)? CDG can offer the same dynamic pricing and integrate its booking app to more popular apps such as local banks / NETS / AXS to capture more eyeballs. Anything stopping them from doing so?
Conman ( Date: 15-Nov-2020 19:10) Posted:
| You will be surprised many PHV drivers are full-time drivers. Many are ex-taxi drivers too. On the average, they earn three times of taxi drivers because of dynamic pricing |
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3 times more is very significant. Customers willing to pay so high during peak period, or simply because Grab offers more customers to its driver partners (less idle time between trips)? CDG can offer the same dynamic pricing and integrate its booking app to more popular apps such as local banks / NETS / AXS to capture more eyeballs. Anything stopping them from doing so?
Conman ( Date: 15-Nov-2020 19:10) Posted:
You will be surprised many PHV drivers are full-time drivers. Many are ex-taxi drivers too. On the average, they earn three times of taxi drivers because of dynamic pricing.
Entropy72 ( Date: 15-Nov-2020 18:46) Posted:
If I already own a car and just need an income supplement (eg. I run other business, am employed or am a Propery agent), I will choose Grab. This is why there is such a large number of PHV drivers but many of them are part timers.
If I don't own a car and want to do full time driving, I will go for taxi. As taxi driver, I am also free to take on Grab jobs now in addition to street hail customers. More flexibility. If I am more risk averse and want income assurance, I will sign up under salaried driver scheme should a taxi company offer that. Basic income plus profit sharing with the taxi company.
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You will be surprised many PHV drivers are full-time drivers. Many are ex-taxi drivers too. On the average, they earn three times of taxi drivers because of dynamic pricing.
Entropy72 ( Date: 15-Nov-2020 18:46) Posted:
If I already own a car and just need an income supplement (eg. I run other business, am employed or am a Propery agent), I will choose Grab. This is why there is such a large number of PHV drivers but many of them are part timers.
If I don't own a car and want to do full time driving, I will go for taxi. As taxi driver, I am also free to take on Grab jobs now in addition to street hail customers. More flexibility. If I am more risk averse and want income assurance, I will sign up under salaried driver scheme should a taxi company offer that. Basic income plus profit sharing with the taxi company.
Conman ( Date: 15-Nov-2020 16:44) Posted:
| So have you decided whether to drive taxi or Grab |
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If I already own a car and just need an income supplement (eg. I run other business, am employed or am a Propery agent), I will choose Grab. This is why there is such a large number of PHV drivers but many of them are part timers.
If I don't own a car and want to do full time driving, I will go for taxi. As taxi driver, I am also free to take on Grab jobs now in addition to street hail customers. More flexibility. If I am more risk averse and want income assurance, I will sign up under salaried driver scheme should a taxi company offer that. Basic income plus profit sharing with the taxi company.
Conman ( Date: 15-Nov-2020 16:44) Posted:
So have you decided whether to drive taxi or Grab?
Entropy72 ( Date: 14-Nov-2020 23:07) Posted:
Interesting point on different business models for point-to-point transport services:
1. CDG model in the past: provide car only
2. CDG model now: provide car and customers (via app)
3. Grab model now: provide customers only (via app)
4. CDG evolved model: provide car, customers (via app) and salary
If I am going to do P2P transport to earn a living, I can choose from model 2, 3 and 4. Why would (3) be superior, unless I already own a car and treat it as a part time income supplement only |
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So have you decided whether to drive taxi or Grab?
Entropy72 ( Date: 14-Nov-2020 23:07) Posted:
Interesting point on different business models for point-to-point transport services:
1. CDG model in the past: provide car only
2. CDG model now: provide car and customers (via app)
3. Grab model now: provide customers only (via app)
4. CDG evolved model: provide car, customers (via app) and salary
If I am going to do P2P transport to earn a living, I can choose from model 2, 3 and 4. Why would (3) be superior, unless I already own a car and treat it as a part time income supplement only?
pasttime ( Date: 14-Nov-2020 18:02) Posted:
apps and internet are only a new channels of distribution. there is no barrier to entry.
sooner comfort changed their model they will do better.
now they hire out vehicle to driver and let driver decide, hunt on their own.
taxi driver got to fight against platform organised attack. so large number of driver do both, but tell you taxi will not take the low value fare.
comfort just need to get better at their apps to be a challenge
they can always changed model to hire driver as worker then they control the car and stop taking phv call. stright away there will be a big gap. as diver is no stupid person to take lower income. over time driver will switch to taxi as there are more money per ride. phv platform just muddy the water and take advantage of both drivers and passengers. some time high fare some time low fare. at the end they try to make a living. so far think they loosing money. stupid business that cause hurt with o gain. and there will never be a gain as if it does a new player will come in.
food delivery, grocery etc all also the same, it is delivery cost versus fixed location rental. there is nothing stopping shopping chain to have a delivery channel as well. just at the moment it is not profitable. they also need to change model, not jsut lease out teh space, but in more control like take more share of business versus fixed rent. and then eventually take over the delivery part when it is profitable. |
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No answer from danger, so I asked my Sifu. He said these analysts are still not aware that under the Bus Contracting Model, all bus fares goes to LTA. And under CDG's taxi business model, all taxi fares belong to the drivers.
But Grab will benefit from the recovery because it has a share in the fares its riders pay.
Conman ( Date: 15-Nov-2020 14:09) Posted:
LTA can collect more bus fare is it?
Starship ( Date: 15-Nov-2020 13:46) Posted:
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Singapore recovery will be protracted because we have no hinterland nor domestic bulk. I have been searching for good reasons to re-invest in CDG but know jollynwell a Singapore assumed " recovery" doesn' t imply the disappearance of the likes of Grab,Gojek nor the revamp of jurassic CDG. Most lkely,Blackrock will sell into the dead cat bounce as rivals' IPO' s draws nearer. If the taxi fleet really dwindles to 1,000, then it' s all over.
Starship ( Date: 15-Nov-2020 13:46) Posted:
danger ( Date: 15-Nov-2020 13:13) Posted:
Analysts give ComfortDelGro the thumbs up, citing recovery in Singapore and other key markets  |
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LTA can collect more bus fare is it?
Starship ( Date: 15-Nov-2020 13:46) Posted:
danger ( Date: 15-Nov-2020 13:13) Posted:
| Analysts give ComfortDelGro the thumbs up, citing recovery in Singapore and other key markets |
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danger ( Date: 15-Nov-2020 13:13) Posted:
| Analysts give ComfortDelGro the thumbs up, citing recovery in Singapore and other key markets |
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Analysts give ComfortDelGro the thumbs up, citing recovery in Singapore and other key markets
In the past, if I am below 30 yrs old, I cannot choose taxi and must choose Grab. Now I can't choose either of this. More even playing field between Grab and taxi under new licensing framework.
Entropy72 ( Date: 14-Nov-2020 23:07) Posted:
Interesting point on different business models for point-to-point transport services:
1. CDG model in the past: provide car only
2. CDG model now: provide car and customers (via app)
3. Grab model now: provide customers only (via app)
4. CDG evolved model: provide car, customers (via app) and salary
If I am going to do P2P transport to earn a living, I can choose from model 2, 3 and 4. Why would (3) be superior, unless I already own a car and treat it as a part time income supplement only?
pasttime ( Date: 14-Nov-2020 18:02) Posted:
apps and internet are only a new channels of distribution. there is no barrier to entry.
sooner comfort changed their model they will do better.
now they hire out vehicle to driver and let driver decide, hunt on their own.
taxi driver got to fight against platform organised attack. so large number of driver do both, but tell you taxi will not take the low value fare.
comfort just need to get better at their apps to be a challenge
they can always changed model to hire driver as worker then they control the car and stop taking phv call. stright away there will be a big gap. as diver is no stupid person to take lower income. over time driver will switch to taxi as there are more money per ride. phv platform just muddy the water and take advantage of both drivers and passengers. some time high fare some time low fare. at the end they try to make a living. so far think they loosing money. stupid business that cause hurt with o gain. and there will never be a gain as if it does a new player will come in.
food delivery, grocery etc all also the same, it is delivery cost versus fixed location rental. there is nothing stopping shopping chain to have a delivery channel as well. just at the moment it is not profitable. they also need to change model, not jsut lease out teh space, but in more control like take more share of business versus fixed rent. and then eventually take over the delivery part when it is profitable. |
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Interesting point on different business models for point-to-point transport services:
1. CDG model in the past: provide car only
2. CDG model now: provide car and customers (via app)
3. Grab model now: provide customers only (via app)
4. CDG evolved model: provide car, customers (via app) and salary
If I am going to do P2P transport to earn a living, I can choose from model 2, 3 and 4. Why would (3) be superior, unless I already own a car and treat it as a part time income supplement only?
pasttime ( Date: 14-Nov-2020 18:02) Posted:
apps and internet are only a new channels of distribution. there is no barrier to entry.
sooner comfort changed their model they will do better.
now they hire out vehicle to driver and let driver decide, hunt on their own.
taxi driver got to fight against platform organised attack. so large number of driver do both, but tell you taxi will not take the low value fare.
comfort just need to get better at their apps to be a challenge
they can always changed model to hire driver as worker then they control the car and stop taking phv call. stright away there will be a big gap. as diver is no stupid person to take lower income. over time driver will switch to taxi as there are more money per ride. phv platform just muddy the water and take advantage of both drivers and passengers. some time high fare some time low fare. at the end they try to make a living. so far think they loosing money. stupid business that cause hurt with o gain. and there will never be a gain as if it does a new player will come in.
food delivery, grocery etc all also the same, it is delivery cost versus fixed location rental. there is nothing stopping shopping chain to have a delivery channel as well. just at the moment it is not profitable. they also need to change model, not jsut lease out teh space, but in more control like take more share of business versus fixed rent. and then eventually take over the delivery part when it is profitable. |
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apps and internet are only a new channels of distribution. there is no barrier to entry.
sooner comfort changed their model they will do better.
now they hire out vehicle to driver and let driver decide, hunt on their own.
taxi driver got to fight against platform organised attack. so large number of driver do both, but tell you taxi will not take the low value fare.
comfort just need to get better at their apps to be a challenge
they can always changed model to hire driver as worker then they control the car and stop taking phv call. stright away there will be a big gap. as diver is no stupid person to take lower income. over time driver will switch to taxi as there are more money per ride. phv platform just muddy the water and take advantage of both drivers and passengers. some time high fare some time low fare. at the end they try to make a living. so far think they loosing money. stupid business that cause hurt with o gain. and there will never be a gain as if it does a new player will come in.
food delivery, grocery etc all also the same, it is delivery cost versus fixed location rental. there is nothing stopping shopping chain to have a delivery channel as well. just at the moment it is not profitable. they also need to change model, not jsut lease out teh space, but in more control like take more share of business versus fixed rent. and then eventually take over the delivery part when it is profitable.
How much it lost is not important. The more important is, as investors in CDG, it will not leave and will continue to be a bigger challenge to taxis than Covid19. We can look at Uber to know Grab's directions because both have the same largest share-holder. GrabFood is already bringing in profits. Next is Finance and digibank (if it gets the licence). Not even GoJek will leave Singapore. I understand that GoJek is already making profits in indonesia, where you can use its app to book a
masseur, carpenter, plumber, etc. Dont be surprised that it also get listed on Singapore.
Neither of Grab or GoJek will leave Singapore. Singapore is a very lucrative market for PHV. There are other bigger app companies waiting to enter.
But one company is waving white flag --- CDG.
phv? do you know how much losses Grab incurred for its phv sector business during and before covid. also for car rental, how much margin u think Grab can earn from its low rental rateConman ( Date: 14-Nov-2020 14:11) Posted:
You need to see the facts laid out infront of you. COE is cheaper now than 4 years ago. To your left, right, front and back, you will see at least one PHV at any one time. This is despite of the zero growth COE policy since 2 years ago.
justicebaogaliao ( Date: 14-Nov-2020 10:18) Posted:
what nonsense, the govt carlite policy applies to all private cars and taxis including PHV' s
if coe increased by 20% tmr, u think the number of PHV will be growing |
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Based on my lip reading experience, I dont think they were shouting Huat Huat Huat. More like PAP! PAP! PAP!
Starship ( Date: 14-Nov-2020 13:28) Posted:
danger ( Date: 14-Nov-2020 10:29) Posted:
1 WORD FOR CONMAN AGAIN ....
HUAT !!!!!!! |
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