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News affecting Banks

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/uob-suspends-london-property-loans-after-brexit-7992228

 

Markets starting to open eyes big big  and differential ....What is happening, taking place right now, the Tangibles. And what are just speculations of " what ifs" , that can go either way or might not happen.

 

Can the same trick be used in 3  trading sessions  in a row?  That would be a little " sloopy/complacent" .....Time to tweet the Trading Algro.

 

Reposted from another thread for easy reference.
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  Item (5) ...see  China fast action right, once they are set on something, speed is her virtue. (market positive)
Item (7) ..... this hint at no tit-for-tac move .....yet. (market positive).

 
 

Luzern         ( Date: 06-Dec-2018 14:13) Posted:   (1) Market positive (2) Market positive (3) Slight Market positive (4) Market Positive (5) Unknown, waiting for more clarity...the market hates unknown. (6) Unknown, waiting for more clarity...the market hates unknown, but this Brexit thing have been dragging for years....market  getting used to it.  A return of UK back to EU will be a Market Positive. (7) Market Negative.    Potential of tit-for-tac by China.      Luzern         ( Date: 06-Dec-2018 13:54) Posted:   1)  Fed signal a close to neutral stand. 2) US 10 yr bond  rate falling. 3) Oil price likely to stabilize at US$50 - US$60 level 4) Additional Tariff on hold for 90 days 5) Additional import of US products by China.  (with the speed the Chinese do things, I export the December 2018 export figure to reflect this, hence, the confirmation) In fact, if what US (Trump) claimed of the meeting were half true, we should be seeing some kind of  results or telltale signs of improvement  in the many areas of concerns before the end of 2018.  This will be a big market positive. 6) Brexit looks like going down the drain, UK is better off staying within EU and play punk like Italy and Spain rather than accept to the Brexit Terms. 7) Countries are more protective of their Technologies, IP and secrets.    We can expect the recent Huawei incident to be just the beginning in a series of cracdown and tigthening.

 

 

Just waiting for the US market to calm down and re-look at the current situation and look at the Fundamentals again.  What have changed and what have not changed? Was their fear justified?

 

As for UK, a no Brexit deal will be better and maybe a return to the EU, since EU already cleared all the path for UK return at seemingly no cost.  This versus a very expensive Brexit Deal with terms that are crazy in the eyes of even laymen..........UK will be better off returning to EU, and just play punks on EU rules they dun like, just like Greece, Italy & Spain.    IMO

 

Despite all the distractions, US China Talk is still on and China true to her words, is starting to buy US soy again this month.

Luzern      ( Date: 11-Dec-2018 15:14) Posted: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-china-trade-talks-get-under-way-11544498812   U.S., China Kick Off a New Round of Trade Talks In a phone call, officials discuss Chinese purchases of agricultural products and changes to fundamental Chinese economic policies. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-10/china-is-said-to-announce-resumption-in-u-s-soy-purchases-soon China to Announce Resumption in U.S. Soy Purchases Soon China intends to announce this month the first batch of U.S. soybean purchases where most, if not all, will be destined for state reserves, according to government officials.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-china-trade-talks-get-under-way-11544498812
 

U.S., China Kick Off a New Round of Trade Talks

In a phone call, officials discuss Chinese purchases of agricultural products and changes to fundamental Chinese economic policies.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-10/china-is-said-to-announce-resumption-in-u-s-soy-purchases-soon

China to Announce Resumption in U.S. Soy Purchases Soon

China intends to announce this month the first batch of U.S. soybean purchases where most, if not all, will be destined for state reserves, according to government officials.


 

 

Correction...
(5) Trump Xi meet next week, 1  Dec 2018 (Singapore Time)

Luzern      ( Date: 22-Nov-2018 09:21) Posted: 1) Can last night Dow intra-day high of +200+ be considered as the smal DCB that was expected?  2) The market seems nervous and is on a " capital preservation mode" .  3) Fresh $ seems relunctance to go into equity to " buy the dip" 4) Traders with significant profit calling it a " year" early and going for an emotionally " peaceful" Holidays break? 5) Trump Xi meet next week, 1 Nov 2018 (Singapore Time)

 

1) Can last night Dow intra-day high of +200+ be considered as the smal DCB that was expected? 
2) The market seems nervous and is on a " capital preservation mode" . 
3) Fresh $ seems relunctance to go into equity to " buy the dip"
4) Traders with significant profit calling it a " year" early and going for an emotionally " peaceful" Holidays break?
5) Trump Xi meet next week, 1 Nov 2018 (Singapore Time)

 

As expected, DBS and UOB are making new lows......OCBC......not yet.  Pervious low for OCBC was 10.36

Luzern      ( Date: 13-Nov-2018 09:01) Posted: The Q3 results of the Banks are better than I expected.    Q4 will give us a better indicators on the performance of the Banks under this new business environment of increasing interest rate and US-China Trade wars.......... For the moment, due to Dow, I am expecting the Banks to test new lows...............IMO, DYODD ....................................................................................... Luzern         ( Date: 01-Nov-2018 09:42) Posted:   Compare compare the Dow chart in Jan/Feb 2018 and now Oct 2018 ....lor......... hehe..... IMO, we are in a rebounce, yes a DCB, but a significant DCB.  like in the early 2018 correction, there is likely to be another leg down for Dow before it do a trend change (up).  So..........enjoy this significant DCB while it last.      But hor I like to see what Bro SgYuan' s comment is on this.

 

Happening faster than I thought........Dow was trading at 243xx at its lowest last night........there is still the Trump Xi meet on or around 30 Nov 2018 (if it happens). 

Perhaps its time to also put more weightage on the Traders' Physchology for this coming Holiday Seasons with all the turmoil and uncertainty  in the markets.  Also note, this year' s blockbuster Companies' earning are significantly fueled by Trump' s Tax cut so what will happen next year? earning misses?..........Now the question.

1) If you are a trader with mostly long positions in the market, what would you do?
2) If you are a Trader with mostly cash, what would you do?
3) If you are the institutions, what would you do?

Luzern      ( Date: 15-Nov-2018 10:09) Posted: Looking at a Dow retest of 241xx............... perhaps by end of this month. Chinese VP and Dr. Kissinger seems to be a good match.  Dr. Kissinger should have the upper hand in the negotiation, but VP Liu will appeal to Dr. K' s desire to find a solution to the US-China Trade War.  I expect the meeting between the 2 Men to end well, giving the market a short term boost.  However, when Trump an Xi meet (if it happens) at end of this month, the feel good atmosphere might have changed.  US and Trump has the upper-hand, and Trump might just want to press his advantage further since he still have  time before the next election and he does have to make up for the lost Taxes from the cut in Company taxes.  On the other side of the Coin, Trump might just want to wrap this up and claim a huge victory (which is the easier path).  But with Trump combatitive nature......if the conditions is still good for him and US, I expect him to press China further, on top of what was agreed by VP Liu and Dr Kissinger. ...................IMO, DYODD

 

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2173461/china-underestimating-its-us3-trillion-dollar-debt-and-could

China is underestimating its US$3 trillion dollar debt and this could trigger a financial crisis, economists say

 

 

So fast US China Trade Talk down the drain?..........VP Liu haven' t even meet Dr Kissinger in US yet................The expectation on both sides is still very big at this point.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-14/china-said-to-outline-concessions-to-u-s-ahead-of-g20-talks


 

Luzern      ( Date: 15-Nov-2018 10:09) Posted: Looking at a Dow retest of 241xx............... perhaps by end of this month. Chinese VP and Dr. Kissinger seems to be a good match.  Dr. Kissinger should have the upper hand in the negotiation, but VP Liu will appeal to Dr. K' s desire to find a solution to the US-China Trade War.  I expect the meeting between the 2 Men to end well, giving the market a short term boost.  However, when Trump an Xi meet (if it happens) at end of this month, the feel good atmosphere might have changed.  US and Trump has the upper-hand, and Trump might just want to press his advantage further since he still have  time before the next election and he does have to make up for the lost Taxes from the cut in Company taxes.  On the other side of the Coin, Trump might just want to wrap this up and claim a huge victory (which is the easier path).  But with Trump combatitive nature......if the conditions is still good for him and US, I expect him to press China further, on top of what was agreed by VP Liu and Dr Kissinger. ...................IMO, DYODD

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-15/singapore-home-sales-plunge-as-developers-market-fewer-projects?srnd=premium-asia



 

 

Looking at a Dow retest of 241xx............... perhaps by end of this month.

Chinese VP and Dr. Kissinger seems to be a good match.  Dr. Kissinger should have the upper hand in the negotiation, but VP Liu will appeal to Dr. K' s desire to find a solution to the US-China Trade War.  I expect the meeting between the 2 Men to end well, giving the market a short term boost.  However, when Trump an Xi meet (if it happens) at end of this month, the feel good atmosphere might have changed.  US and Trump has the upper-hand, and Trump might just want to press his advantage further since he still have  time before the next election and he does have to make up for the lost Taxes from the cut in Company taxes.  On the other side of the Coin, Trump might just want to wrap this up and claim a huge victory (which is the easier path).  But with Trump combatitive nature......if the conditions is still good for him and US, I expect him to press China further, on top of what was agreed by VP Liu and Dr Kissinger.
...................IMO, DYODD

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/14/italy-sticks-to-its-budget-targets-defying-the-eu.html

Italy sticks to its budget targets, defying the EU

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/13/investing-slowing-global-growth-matters-for-markets-imf-says.html

Global growth is slowing, and markets need to pay attention, IMF says

 

US now have the upper hand....... don' t see how the Trump Xi meet this  end Nov can have a happy ending.

 

The Q3 results of the Banks are better than I expected.    Q4 will give us a better indicators on the performance of the Banks under this new business environment of increasing interest rate and US-China Trade wars.......... For the moment, due to Dow, I am expecting the Banks to test new lows...............IMO, DYODD


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Luzern         ( Date: 01-Nov-2018 09:42) Posted: