Post Reply
6701-6720 of 6990
As expected, OCBC did not up their offer price for wing hang bank. Hence, there is no general offer to buy up the remaining outstanding share. Now Elliot Asia is stuck with some high price WHB shares as WHB share will go back to pre-offering price. Singapore market like OCBC action and hence recovery of OCBC share price. Barring any external factors, OCBC share price will go back to pre-offer price, that is >$10. In the meantime, Elliot Asia will wind down their position as their effort had not managed to twist OCBC arm in this take over saga.
Ready to enjoy the ride !!!
goondoo ( Date: 23-Jul-2014 09:03) Posted:
|
Recent days has shown there is bb supporting the stock price. I' ve already started to long. Cya up there!
OCBC is so similar to Brazil in the 2014 world cup. 2014 is possibly the 1st time in OCBC illustrious history that it is the worst performing STI index stock for the while year, when UOB and DBS is among the best performing.
We have UOB $23.90 and DBS $17.90 both just 1% shy of their 52 week high and all time high. On the other hand we have ocbc just 5% above the 52 week low. This show how much influence mgmt can make a company share price shine or crash.
Wholeheartedly support ur pt abt UOB - best performing stock among the three local banks.
With a hongkie at the helm, i dont see how he will let the takeover fail. Look what happened at dbs. Best is uob with a local owner management
shareflux ( Date: 19-Jul-2014 23:44) Posted:
|
Can OCBC not lived with > 75% of WH? There are no pre-condition attached to the gen off right? I am sure they can
shareflux ( Date: 19-Jul-2014 23:44) Posted:
|
OCBC may not get the 90% majority with Elliot Asia buying up WHB. OCBC only have less than 60% now. If the takeover fail, OCBC share price will recover. And Elliot Asia will be stuck with expensive WHB shares. The takeover dateline is 29 July 2014. Be patient and see how this saga pans out.
Dun so desperate, next div coming, price will recover soon. Good price to buy now...
goondoo ( Date: 15-Jul-2014 20:08) Posted:
|
I am purely speculating, but suppose ocbc make a reverse takeover on uob say offer 3 ocbc shares for 1 uob share. This value uob at abt 1.5 times more than ocbc even though both bank roughly same size. Uob shareholders will get a windfall while ocbc shareholders get the shorter end of the deal. Mkt may then price uob from 24 to 27 and ocbc from 8 to 9. This is pure speculation but I cannot think of any other reason why uob shares are flying, dbs unchanged but ocbc falling badly. Ocbc can't lose more than the total it paid for WHB vis a vis UOB. And there is no reason y UOB shares keep on defying gravity and outperforming entire singapore mkt for so many months without any spectacular news.
Ocbc mkt cap is 2 to 3 billion more than Uob last year. Ocbc mkt cap is now 5 to 6 billion less than Uob. Net ocbc lost 8 billion mkt cap against Uob. WHB deal is US$5 billion or S$6.25 billion much less than the mkt cap ocbc lost compared to uob. This means the mkt is pricing the entire WHB stake written off 100% + something extra. OCBC mkt cap is big with a large float meaning the share price cannot be easily manipulated. Hence the mkt is either extremely pessimistic or there is something worse abt to happen to ocbc that is not announced yet but is being speculated and priced into the share price.
NEW OCBC CHAIRMAN IS EXPERT MANAGER OF MORTGAGE FINANCING RISK. WILL HE NAVIGATE AND AVOID PERILS FROM WHB?
http://www.bis.org/review/r100121f.pdf[URL="http://www.bis.org/review/r100121f.pdf"]http://www.bis.org/review/r100121f.pdf[/URL]
Not sure whether it&rsquo s fair to blame the bank or the &lsquo experts&rsquo , some of whom might have presented a skewed analysis for ulterior motives, for OCBC&rsquo s poor share price performance. Only time will tell if the bank&rsquo s strategy in the WHB acquisition is sound or misplaced. DBS paid almost double the P/B OCBC is doing for DHB and had to eventually write off > 10% of the investment. Does anyone recall whether DBS had received such negative assessments at the time of the acquisition or were they even lauded for having made a great and/or bargain investment?
Anyway the mgmt of OCBC deserve a pat on the back for making a top tier blue chip like OCBC 1 of the worst performing stocks in STI in a year where the Dow Jones, S&P are making new highs every few months. Even when DBS acquire Dao Heng I don't remember DBS being the worst pwrforming stock on the STI.
OCBC range bound 9 to 9:80 probably for the next 3 to 4 years. Think the other 29 blue chips in STI will be 10 to 20% higher in 3 to 4 years except maybe NOL which is as bad. As an investor, prefer stocks that rise over time not those stuck in a tight range over many years.
DBS paid 9.6 bil for DHB (compared to 1.6 bil paid for POSB). They had to eventually bite the bullet and write off over a bil. Even at 8.6 bil, P/B wld be greater than what OCBC is paying for WHB. I believe the majority owners of OCBC, known to be more conservative-inclined, know what they are doing. The ' experts' are probably pressing the price down to collect at cheaper price. But bcos they are doing that, we better wait to tompang at lower price. The actual value of OCBC shares may be considerably higher. Shares of its GEH is now trading close to $23, abt 20% higher than in May 13, before the first FOMC tapering announcement was made. On the other hand, OCBC is now trading at $9.40, abt 20% lower than in May 13. Perhaps at $9.00, it wld be a good price to capture.
http://www.sharesinv.com/articles/2014/07/11/first-half-roundup-bullish-on-hk-property-stocks/
DR CHAN YAN CHONG | 11 JULY 2014
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation&rsquo s (OCBC) successful acquisition of Wing Hang Bank in Hong Kong is a positive move. Compared to a few years back, when DBS Group Holdings acquired Dao Heng Bank at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio in excess of 3, OCBC&rsquo s acquisition of Wing Hang at a P/B ratio of 1.8 is considered a very good deal. Earlier this year, Yue Xiu Group, controlled by the Guangzhou municipal government, bought over Chong Hing Bank in Hong Kong at a P/B ratio of 2.1. This proves that the OCBC team is comparatively better at striking a good bargain.
With the acquisition of Wing Hang Bank, OCBC&rsquo s branches in Hong Kong will surge to 43, just a few shy of DBS&rsquo 50 branches. In addition to Hong Kong, OCBC&rsquo s branches in China will increase to 44, and that is very promising for the bank
Anyway believe that current price already factor in. Maybe still will down a bit more as some "market expert" want the price sink to their entry point .
goondoo ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 16:00) Posted:
|
Diluting eps and increasing the portion of goodwill in the book value only means the share price will dive. The people who realise this earlier and cut loss faster will lose less. The last to sell will lose the most.