OCBC Bank Last:23.23 -

OCBC

next week power up!!! above $14 possible....

Er....you misread .

I said it will not hit $14.50 by end Feb however by this year 2023 it is a possibility , on the assumption that FY22 profit is 6b and PE ratio at 11 . ( EPS $1.33 x 11 = $14.63 ) .

incirent ( Date: 10-Feb-2023 09:47) Posted:

# echoes. Thank you for the very detailed analysis of OCBC reaching $14.50 by the end of February.

Good input and happy to see input backup w logical argument.
I agree and I think 60c is what I expect . THere is one area which your 6B might be affected ...that is GE contribution .
I am concern about the mark to mkt numbers from GE ( I doubt their investment income wld be good this qtr)
Other then that I dont think NPL or those Adani story of any issue
However, paying 60c or a little more is no issue to OCBC as their Tier 1 capital is well above requirement
Good luck
Happy investing.

Echoes ( Date: 09-Feb-2023 13:13) Posted:

Dont think it can hit $14.50 in 2 weeks thats almost $1.50 or another 12% to go . Unless OCBC makes bumper profits , gives out bumper dividens , or announce got new aquisitions .

Lets try to analyse from dividens and PE ratio point of view :
Historically, OCBC' s dividen payout ratio ranges from 45% to 50% . I think profit for FY2022 will be 6b .
If payout ratio is 45% , then FY22 dividen will be 60 cents . ( 0.45 x 6b / 4.5b shares )
If payout ratio is 50% , then FY22 dividen will be 67 cents ( 0.5 x 6b / 4.5b shares )

In todays high interest environment , investors would like to see a dividen yield of at least 4.5% . Lets use 4.5% yield as benchmark .
For 60 cents dividen, a yield of 4.5% translates to a share price of $13.33 .
For 67 cents dividen , a yield of 4.5% translates to a share price of $14.88
In my opinion , I dont think OCBC will pay 67 cents ( even though I really hope so ) cos traditionally they are quite conservative on their payouts . Also , 67 cents is a big jump from last years 53 cents , or an increase of 27% .

If we look from the perspective of PE ratio:
6b profits equals EPS of $1.33 . The PE ratio has been hovering around 10 lately , so the price shd be in the region of $13.33 .
To reach $14.50 , PE ratio will have to be 11 , which is still fair , but I dont think it will hit in 2 weeks . Hitting by this year is possible .

I do not know what the book value will be after the results , so have to wait . It has been trading at 1.0 to 1.1 price to book so that will be another gauge .

Of course, all my assumptions above are based on profit of 6b for FY 22 .

Hopefully come 13 Feb DBS will announce a set of stellar results and set new benchmark this may compel UOB and OCBC to do the same .

Happy investing .

incirent ( Date: 08-Feb-2023 23:03) Posted:

Annual results will be known in two weeks' time and I hope to release all my OCBC shares @ $14.50. Is my hope realistic enough? Please comment, thank you.

Dont think it can hit $14.50 in 2 weeks thats almost $1.50 or another 12% to go . Unless OCBC makes bumper profits , gives out bumper dividens , or announce got new aquisitions .

Lets try to analyse from dividens and PE ratio point of view :
Historically, OCBC' s dividen payout ratio ranges from 45% to 50% . I think profit for FY2022 will be 6b .
If payout ratio is 45% , then FY22 dividen will be 60 cents . ( 0.45 x 6b / 4.5b shares )
If payout ratio is 50% , then FY22 dividen will be 67 cents ( 0.5 x 6b / 4.5b shares )

In todays high interest environment , investors would like to see a dividen yield of at least 4.5% . Lets use 4.5% yield as benchmark .
For 60 cents dividen, a yield of 4.5% translates to a share price of $13.33 .
For 67 cents dividen , a yield of 4.5% translates to a share price of $14.88
In my opinion , I dont think OCBC will pay 67 cents ( even though I really hope so ) cos traditionally they are quite conservative on their payouts . Also , 67 cents is a big jump from last years 53 cents , or an increase of 27% .

If we look from the perspective of PE ratio:
6b profits equals EPS of $1.33 . The PE ratio has been hovering around 10 lately , so the price shd be in the region of $13.33 .
To reach $14.50 , PE ratio will have to be 11 , which is still fair , but I dont think it will hit in 2 weeks . Hitting by this year is possible .

I do not know what the book value will be after the results , so have to wait . It has been trading at 1.0 to 1.1 price to book so that will be another gauge .

Of course, all my assumptions above are based on profit of 6b for FY 22 .

Hopefully come 13 Feb DBS will announce a set of stellar results and set new benchmark this may compel UOB and OCBC to do the same .

Happy investing .

incirent ( Date: 08-Feb-2023 23:03) Posted:

Annual results will be known in two weeks' time and I hope to release all my OCBC shares @ $14.50. Is my hope realistic enough? Please comment, thank you.

Garam owner

SUN, FEB 05, 2023 - 04:01 PM

UPDATED SUN, FEB 05, 2023 - 4:01 PM

THE Indonesian arm of OCBC Bank filed a police report against a billionaire owner of cigarette-maker PT Gudang Garam.

PT Bank OCBC NISP filed the report against Susilo Wonowidjojo, an owner and president director of Gudang Garam, on fraud allegations relating to some 232 billion rupiah (S$20 million) in troubled loans, the lender&rsquo s lawyer Hasbi Setiawan said in a statement on Friday (Feb 3).

The bank disbursed the loan in 2016 to a wig-making company owned by Wonowidjojo&rsquo s family, Setiawan added. The case involves a total of one trillion rupiah of funds when including loans from other lenders, he said.

A representative for Gudang Garam didn&rsquo t immediately respond to requests for comment and calls to the company&rsquo s office were not answered. Gudang Garam shares fell 5.7 per cent on Friday in their biggest drop since Jan 5, ending a four-day gain of nearly 16 per cent. OCBC NISP shares gained 1.3 per cent. BLOOMBERG

Ya agree there are so many OCBC topics started by him and every time I click I only see links provided and nothing else . Waste my time.

This is the only OCBC thread with a meaningful discussion .

incirent ( Date: 04-Feb-2023 23:18) Posted:

Anything other than the trash posted by < C-Kao> is refreshing. I wonder why information on HK shares are being allowed on this counter? We are supposed to comment on our beloved OCBC.

Having studied OCBC over the weekend I think OCBC will be either minimally impacted or have no impact from ADANI issue - worst case is minimal impact - all banks are a buy

OCBC leads net fund inflows JB Foods&rsquo Goh Lee Beng increases stake

FOR the five trading sessions that spanned Jan 27 to Feb 2, the Straits Times Index (STI) declined 0.4 per cent with the Hang Seng Index falling 3.4 per cent and the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI decreasing 1.4 per cent.

Institutions were net buyers of Singapore stocks over the five sessions with S$128 million of net inflow.

OCBC : O39 +0.93%, Singapore Technologies Engineering : S63 0%, Venture Corporation : V03 +0.48%, City Developments : C09 +0.36% and Sembcorp Industries : U96 -0.56% led the net institutional inflow for the five sessions.

Meanwhile, DBS : D05 +1.2%, UOB : U11 +1.79%, Genting Singapore : G13 0%, Singapore Exchange : S68 +0.77% and Wilmar International : F34 -0.74% led the net institutional outflow for the five sessions.

OCBC has also booked the highest net institutional inflows across the Singapore stock market in the 2023 year through to Feb 2, after booking the second highest net institutional inflows in 2022.

The bank will be reporting its FY22 (ended Dec 31) financial results before the Feb 24 market open.

For its 9MFY22 (ended Sep 30) group net profit was S$4.44 billion, 14 per cent higher than 9MFY21, largely attributed to net interest income growth and a decline in allowances.

OCBC chief executive officer Helen Wong noted that while subdued customer investment activity impacted wealth fees in Q3FY22, the bank continued to attract net new money inflows into its wealth management franchise.

The group&rsquo s wealth management income, comprising income from insurance, private banking, premier private client, premier banking, asset management as well as stockbroking, grew 21 per cent in Q3FY22 to S$1.12 billion from Q3FY21 and made up 35 per cent of the group&rsquo s income in Q3FY22.

Share buybacks

Due to the earnings season, there were just four primary-listed companies conducting share buybacks over the five trading sessions through to Feb 2, with a total consideration of S$555,900.

SIA Engineering Company : S59 0% bought back 148,100 shares at an average price of S$2.50 per share while Valuetronics Holdings bought back 320,000 shares at an average price of S$0.54 per share.

Oxley Holdings : 5UX 0% also bought back 30,000 shares on Feb 2 at an average price of S$0.14 per share.

The preceding evening saw Oxley Holdings report total revenue of S$438.4 million for its H1FY23 (ended Dec 31).

This represented a 13 per cent decrease compared to its revenue of S$506.4 million for its H1FY22, mainly due to the absence of a one-time sale of land parcels in Australia in H1FY22 of S$97.1 million, partially offset by higher revenue contribution from Singapore development projects and hotels in H1FY23.

For the month of January, there were 23 primary listed companies that bought back their shares for a total consideration of S$25.5 million, which was down from the S$52.9 million in consideration in January 2022.

HRnetGroup : CHZ +0.59% was among the five stocks that led the buyback consideration tally in January, buying back more than 2.7 million shares at an average price of S$0.80 per share.

For the 2022 calendar year the company bought back close to 13 million shares at an average price of S$0.78 per share.

As reported on Aug 11, for its H1FY22 (ended Jun 30) HRnetGroup announced underlying profit growth of 36 per cent from H1FY21.

It also declared for the first time, an interim dividend totalling S$21.3 million, based on 50 per cent of the underlying profits achieved.

For its FY21, HRnetGroup reported underlying profit growth of 41 per cent from FY20.

On Feb 2, the manager of Digital Core Reit : DCRU -0.73% highlighted that it had repurchased 10,654,100 units under its existing unit buyback mandate at an average price of US$0.59.

The units were held as treasury units on Dec 31, 2022, and subsequently cancelled in January 2023.

The manager noted the units were repurchased &ldquo at a deep discount to NAV, generating meaningful accretion for unitholders&rdquo .

Digital Core Reit is sponsored by Digital Realty, the largest global data centre owner and operator.

Director and substantial shareholder transactions

The five trading sessions saw more than 40 changes to director interests and substantial shareholdings filed for fewer than 20 primary-listed stocks.

This included eight company director acquisitions with no disposals filed, while substantial shareholders filed six acquisitions and five disposals.

Anything other than the trash posted by < C-Kao> is refreshing. I wonder why information on HK shares are being allowed on this counter? We are supposed to comment on our beloved OCBC.

Feel that OCBC is still lacking behind DBS and UOB.

Haha since u bring out Muddy water, then many know how Olam/Temasek b bro give him a SLAP . lol

It is certainly not a comparison w our solid banks . All 3 have their in house law and system on loans. In fact Bank of India already ask our banks input ( seem like only
dbs and ocbc have some collatorate on Adani. ) Further I honestly wld be least worry ....the size of the loan , the detail and amount etc cant be big on any of our banks.
BOS is not stupid .....lol

DYODD

Echoes ( Date: 03-Feb-2023 14:39) Posted:

We dont know how much is the exposure and even if we know , what can we do ?

I guess the Bank will issue statement if the situation warrants .

So far OCBC share price does not seem to be much affected not sure whether DBS' s 2% drop yesterday is related .

This episode remains me of Muddy Waters / Olam saga years back and in the end it turned out well .

Adrianinsing ( Date: 03-Feb-2023 12:50) Posted:

IMPORTANT

Are we all ok with Bank of Singapore OCBC Bank private banking unit continuing to offer margin loans for up to 70 per cent of the value of Adani dollar bonds - yes or no

Is this ok

If we all think ok then fine

Source

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/adani-embattled-indian-company-scraps-3b-share-sale

ADANI share price is recovering and well off the lows

Plus ADANI is repaying the loans

Echoes ( Date: 03-Feb-2023 14:39) Posted:

We dont know how much is the exposure and even if we know , what can we do ?

I guess the Bank will issue statement if the situation warrants .

So far OCBC share price does not seem to be much affected not sure whether DBS' s 2% drop yesterday is related .

This episode remains me of Muddy Waters / Olam saga years back and in the end it turned out well .

Adrianinsing ( Date: 03-Feb-2023 12:50) Posted:

IMPORTANT

Are we all ok with Bank of Singapore OCBC Bank private banking unit continuing to offer margin loans for up to 70 per cent of the value of Adani dollar bonds - yes or no

Is this ok

If we all think ok then fine

Source

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/adani-embattled-indian-company-scraps-3b-share-sale

We dont know how much is the exposure and even if we know , what can we do ?

I guess the Bank will issue statement if the situation warrants .

So far OCBC share price does not seem to be much affected not sure whether DBS' s 2% drop yesterday is related .

This episode remains me of Muddy Waters / Olam saga years back and in the end it turned out well .

Adrianinsing ( Date: 03-Feb-2023 12:50) Posted:

IMPORTANT

Are we all ok with Bank of Singapore OCBC Bank private banking unit continuing to offer margin loans for up to 70 per cent of the value of Adani dollar bonds - yes or no

Is this ok

If we all think ok then fine

Source

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/adani-embattled-indian-company-scraps-3b-share-sale

ADANI down another 35 % today so far

Has OCBC got a balance sheet problem with ADANI

Adrianinsing ( Date: 03-Feb-2023 12:50) Posted:

IMPORTANT

Are we all ok with Bank of Singapore OCBC Bank private banking unit continuing to offer margin loans for up to 70 per cent of the value of Adani dollar bonds - yes or no

Is this ok

If we all think ok then fine

Source

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/adani-embattled-indian-company-scraps-3b-share-sale

Agreed, OCBC payout ratio can go to 50% , keeping my finger cross

Echoes ( Date: 03-Feb-2023 11:28) Posted:

Yes I concur , they will need to make the dividend yields in the 4% to 5% range in the current environment of high interest rates .

At today' s share price of around $13 , they need to pay around 60 cents total . As they already paid an interim of 28 cents in Aug 22 ( after half yr result ) , the final dividen should be in the region of 32 cents .

The 28 cents paid last August represented a payout ratio of only 44% so there is still plenty of bullets left in their coffers to pay a generous final dividen .

FATABA ( Date: 29-Nov-2022 17:15) Posted:

What I am relatively certain is that OCBC may offer a higher dividend for full year 2022 result in early Feb ....so a nice CNY angpow.
My guess is min 30c ( from 28c) or even lucky a 35c .
Let see.

Yes I concur , they will need to make the dividend yields in the 4% to 5% range in the current environment of high interest rates .

At today' s share price of around $13 , they need to pay around 60 cents total . As they already paid an interim of 28 cents in Aug 22 ( after half yr result ) , the final dividen should be in the region of 32 cents .

The 28 cents paid last August represented a payout ratio of only 44% so there is still plenty of bullets left in their coffers to pay a generous final dividen .

FATABA ( Date: 29-Nov-2022 17:15) Posted:

What I am relatively certain is that OCBC may offer a higher dividend for full year 2022 result in early Feb ....so a nice CNY angpow.
My guess is min 30c ( from 28c) or even lucky a 35c .
Let see.

incirent ( Date: 19-Nov-2022 23:52) Posted:

Looking at the current situation, $13 is reachable by Christmas and $14 in April. 2023. If China relax the 0 policy and US/China strike something positive, $15 will be a windfall. I sincerely hope that 2023 will be a prosperous year for us all at the OCBC counter.

Of the 3 - OCBC is most concerning

According to Straits Times ( quote )

Other banks continue to lend against Adani debt. Bank of Singapore OCBC Banks private banking unit is continuing to offer margin loans for up to 70 per cent of the value of Adani dollar bonds, sources said earlier

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/adani-embattled-indian-company-scraps-3b-share-sale

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Garam owner