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What can Powell say to bring on another correction.
1) The US economy appears to be slowing further data is needed to confirm the trend. (still unconvinced of the slowdown)
2) We will be following the data closely to adjust the pace of interest rate hike. (re-active rather than foreward looking, unconvince of the slowdown)
3) The unwinding of the Feb asset will continue at its current pace and will be adjusted if the situation calls for it. (re-active and not taking active steps to ensure liquidity in the economy and in fact sucking liquidity from the economy).
1) The US economy appears to be slowing further data is needed to confirm the trend. (still unconvinced of the slowdown)
2) We will be following the data closely to adjust the pace of interest rate hike. (re-active rather than foreward looking, unconvince of the slowdown)
3) The unwinding of the Feb asset will continue at its current pace and will be adjusted if the situation calls for it. (re-active and not taking active steps to ensure liquidity in the economy and in fact sucking liquidity from the economy).
Luzern ( Date: 04-Jan-2019 08:40) Posted:
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What can Powell say to bring cheer to the market.......
1) Acknowledge that the US economy is slowing down and inflation risk has been greatly reduced.
1) Interest rate is very close to neutral or at neutral
2) Slowing down of the unwinding of the Feb Asset sale. (currently at US$50B/mnth)
1) Acknowledge that the US economy is slowing down and inflation risk has been greatly reduced.
1) Interest rate is very close to neutral or at neutral
2) Slowing down of the unwinding of the Feb Asset sale. (currently at US$50B/mnth)
The jobless claims were higher than expected, the Manufacturing data was much lower than expected. This reinforced the fear of a faster than expected slow down in the US economy. Add this to the earlier announced Caixin numbers in China where there is a contraction (also lower than expected) , this points unmistaken to a widening global slowdown, and at a faster than expected rate. Hence, the Bears have a field day last night. All eyes on Powell tonight and Trade Talk on Monday (Beijing).
Potential for another " swing night" ........... all depends on the data releasing tonight.
Luzern ( Date: 02-Jan-2019 10:05) Posted:
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Banks Q4 results should be very telling...............I am still undecided on where they are going as of now. Their prices are relatively close to our initial targets (set ~1 - 2 qtrs ago), at 9+, 21+, 22+ on the expectation that the local property and construction will be meaningfully impacted by the new measures and also on the banks exposure in Greater China with an on-going US China Trade war. Since then, the local property sector seems to have weather the new measures pretty well, better than expected, and Q3 results of the Banks did not show any meaningful impact due to the on-going trade war (which is puzzling). With Q4 result coming and the trade war effect getting more and more visible, I am expecting the Banks to show at least some sign of lower loan growth in Greater China and perhaps a bigger NPL?. If by any chance the loan growth momentum is not affected in Greater China, that will certainly raise a red flag for me. Again Q4 results is very important on our decision on the Banks......what, how the results are presented and reported and what are the things that are left unsaid. .......IMO, DYODD
Luzern ( Date: 02-Jan-2019 13:52) Posted:
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US China Trade war officially started in Mar 2018, the first tariff took effect in Jun 2018.......so it shouldn' t come as a surprise that business will be hit by the tariffs quarters down the road. In fact the markets have been doing just that, correcting on the expected impact of the Trade Tariffs. But when the numbers came out to confirmed the expected, there is still some knee jerk reaction, probably from the die hards who refuse to see expected the impact of the Tariffs (and finally capitulated when the data came out) and its also a good opportunity for the Bears to make an issue of it. Do keep in mind that the US and China Trade Talk is taking place on 7 jan 2019 in Beijing, and that Powell will be talking this Friday in US........these 2 events could just be the left and right punches to knock-out the remaining Bears.......IMO, DYODD.
Depending on which report one is reading and the parameters used, illegal immigrants cost US anywhere from US$20Bil+ to US$200Bil+ a year. So it really does not make sense for Democrates to refuse to relent on Trump' s US$5bil+ (down from US$25bil) funding for the border wall. They are just fighting for political mileage at the expense and cost of the people. IMO
Luzern ( Date: 03-Jan-2019 14:57) Posted:
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I think he is only asking for US$5bil......which is a relatively small amount. Pelosi and Democrates just want to make things difficult for Trump. What' s wrong with a border wall with Mexico. On the long run the US government probably will save a lot more on the manpower needed to patrol the Mexico Borders, not to mention the savings in all the social cost, etcs needed to fund and up keep the illegal immigrants.......... Trump' s a businessman, he know his dollar and cents, the politicians.....they just want to win polictical advantages and power.....IMO
curious_moo ( Date: 03-Jan-2019 13:55) Posted:
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i think trump said he no need salary one..
he just want his f***ing wall.. lol
he just want his f***ing wall.. lol
investshare ( Date: 03-Jan-2019 11:48) Posted:
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US government shutdown, when will they stop paying Trump salary?
Both Trump and Xi wants a Trade deal.
Luzern ( Date: 03-Jan-2019 10:58) Posted:
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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/02/trump-says-stocks-will-rise-once-trade-battle-settled-calls-last-months-market-decline-a-glitch.html
Trump says there was a stock market ' glitch' in December, but it will rise when trade deals fixed
- " We had a little glitch in the stock market last month, but we' re still up about 30 percent from the time I got elected," says Trump. " It' s going to go up once we settle trade issues and a couple of other things happen."
- The S& P 500 dropped more than 9 percent last month to notch its worst December performance since 1931.
- Those losses also pushed the broad stock index to its worst annual performance since 2008 &mdash when it plunged more than 38 percent. For 2018, the S& P 500 pulled back 6.2 percent.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/01/chinas-xi-issues-a-message-for-trump-weve-got-to-cooperate.html
China' s Xi issues a message for Trump: We' ve got to cooperate
- Chinese President Xi Jinping sent U.S. President Donald Trump a congratulatory message on Tuesday to mark 40 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between their two countries.
- " History has proved that cooperation is the best choice for both sides," Xi said.
In view of the slow down, I am expecting the Chinese Govt to inject liquidity/credits into her economy.
He is very focused on his goals and works towards it with all tools/means available to him, however unconventional they might be, cause he knows its the end results that counts. Like what Deng XP said, " ' Black cat or White cat, a cat that knows how to catch mice is a good cat."
Luzern ( Date: 03-Jan-2019 09:54) Posted:
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Trump knows what he is doing. He just needs good, talented people who understands his strategies and share his passion to work for the good of his countrymen even at the expense of his personal reputation. IMO
Fed Chair Powell speech this Friday.......this will be a good opportunity for him to calm the market. IMO
And tonight is a data packed days for US. Jobless claims, Manufacturing data, Mortgage rates....
And tonight is a data packed days for US. Jobless claims, Manufacturing data, Mortgage rates....
IMO, Trump is has a better grasp of the US economy than Powell. Trump plans qtrs ahead, while Powell re-acts to the data, and look not to far into the future on how the economy is going to perform. Trump knows that the Trade fight with China will slow the economy down and have been urging Powell to slow down rate hike, but Powell just don' t get it. A case of a Strategist and an Academic.
Luzern ( Date: 03-Jan-2019 09:31) Posted:
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The effect of the US China trade war is showing more and more. This should give Trump and Xi more incentives to get a Trade Deal. After crashing the Dow by over 2000pts (including intra day) and with the economic indicators slowing, Powell should be slowing if not stopping the rate hikes......he is afterall a data/number person. IMO
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/02/tech-shares-dive-after-hours-after-apple-warning-nasdaq-etf-loses-nearly-2-percent.html
Dow futures drop more than 300 points as tech shares get hit after hours on a warning from Apple
- The main ETF tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 dropped in after hours trading Wednesday.
- Dow and S& P 500 futures opened for trading more than 1 percent lower.
- Apple said it sees first-quarter revenue of $84 billion vs. a previous guidance of a range of $89 billion and $93 billion. It blamed weak China sales for the shortfall and some weakness in upgrade cycle in other countries.
- Apple shares were down 30 percent last quarter as Wall Street analysts warned this kind of announcement could be coming
DBS Q4 out on 18 Feb 2019, followed by UOB and OCBC on 22 Feb 2019.