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SembM Re-Born Rich

Your profit margin is a bit too low, let say we use 10% profit margin and the total profit of $0.76B/68B shares = $0.0112 EPS

The share price to justify for this would be $0.0112/5% FD = $0.224 per share. It would be higher if using lower FD rate of 4% or lower. The reason to use FD rate is based on the dividend that I would get if the money is parked under FD or CPF rather than in the share.

zhixuen      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 15:01) Posted: Your calculation is taking into consideration of 20% margin that it is hypothetically optimistic  prediction.  20% does not make sense in current business environment. Why did you use 5% FD in the fraction of $0.0176 earning per share?  I' m more conservation, presuming 18 billions awarded project delivered for next 3 years. Profit margin 5%  18/3 = 6 billions X 0.05 = 300 millions profit that come from new building, convertion and specilized shipbuilding.  For ship repair I referenced to recent business update where SCM (500 millions) + KOM (assume 500 millions)  with 1 billions revenue X 0.08 (ship repair usually may see higher margin) = 80 millions. Total Profit = 380 millions / 68 billions share. = 0.056 EPS. Assume PE = 10 for ship building and repair business. = fair value should be $0.56 if business does good as what described in the above forecast.    Eagle88      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 14:12) Posted: If $1.2B/68B shares = $0.0176 per share The share price should be $0.0176 / 5% FD Rate = $0.35 per share. The share price now is only $0.110, so it is very much discountered if the new management is able to deliver the profit based on the revenue that SM can get from the orders on hand

 

Oil price has gone up 2% 

Stocky901      ( Date: 23-Mar-2023 09:00) Posted: --- Post Removed by User ---

 

in case someone asks....
1 Billion = 1,000 Million

 

Clap...Clap...you are right! 
Lacks one zero, Fair Value per share as calculated is 5.6 cents
Net Tangible Assets (NTA) per share is less than 7 cents
It doesn' t look rosy  lei...   

ahbui8      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 16:09) Posted: 😂 if you really feel this is insightful, you better stay far far away from SCM. 380m is 0.0056 eps, if 10x PE fair value is 0.056 which market cap is less than 4B.  Sg_KoalaDreaming      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 15:52) Posted:   clap clap, insightful. th

 

Yes, 30 cents...Pump it up..buy and ..hold...

Eagle88      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 14:12) Posted: If $1.2B/68B shares = $0.0176 per share The share price should be $0.0176 / 5% FD Rate = $0.35 per share. The share price now is only $0.110, so it is very much discountered if the new management is able to deliver the profit based on the revenue that SM can get from the orders on hand. Eagle88      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 13:59) Posted: If SM can clear the orders in 3 years, Let say it is 18B instead of 20B, so 18B / 3 = 6B / yr, if SM can make 20% profit, it will be 1.2B a year. It is very much depends on how the new management to carry out the operations and cost control etc. SM must have the capacity to digest the orders and to deliver ontime and collect all the payments

 

😂 if you really feel this is insightful, you better stay far far away from SCM.

380m is 0.0056 eps, if 10x PE fair value is 0.056 which market cap is less than 4B. 

Sg_KoalaDreaming      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 15:52) Posted:   clap clap, insightful. thx zhixuen      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 15:01) Posted: Your calculation is taking into consideration of 20% margin that it is hypothetically optimistic  prediction.  20% does not make sense in current business environment. Why did you use 5% FD in the fraction of $0.0176 earning per share?  I' m more conservation, presuming 18 billions awarded project delivered for next 3 years. Profit margin 5%  18/3 = 6 billions X 0.05 = 300 millions profit that come from new building, convertion and specilized shipbuilding.  For ship repair I referenced to recent business update where SCM (500 millions) + KOM (assume 500 millions)  with 1 billions revenue X 0.08 (ship repair usually may see higher margin) = 80 millions. Total Profit = 380 millions / 68 billions share. = 0.056 EPS. Assume PE = 10 for ship building and repair business. = fair value should be $0.56 if business does good as what described in the above forecast.

 

seems like no matter cut the right or cut the left...
looks like a bright future...   
great. xie xie :))

Sg_KoalaDreaming      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 15:52) Posted:   clap clap, insightful. thx zhixuen      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 15:01) Posted: Your calculation is taking into consideration of 20% margin that it is hypothetically optimistic  prediction.  20% does not make sense in current business environment. Why did you use 5% FD in the fraction of $0.0176 earning per share?  I' m more conservation, presuming 18 billions awarded project delivered for next 3 years. Profit margin 5%  18/3 = 6 billions X 0.05 = 300 millions profit that come from new building, convertion and specilized shipbuilding.  For ship repair I referenced to recent business update where SCM (500 millions) + KOM (assume 500 millions)  with 1 billions revenue X 0.08 (ship repair usually may see higher margin) = 80 millions. Total Profit = 380 millions / 68 billions share. = 0.056 EPS. Assume PE = 10 for ship building and repair business. = fair value should be $0.56 if business does good as what described in the above forecast.

 

  clap clap, insightful. thx

zhixuen      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 15:01) Posted: Your calculation is taking into consideration of 20% margin that it is hypothetically optimistic  prediction.  20% does not make sense in current business environment. Why did you use 5% FD in the fraction of $0.0176 earning per share?  I' m more conservation, presuming 18 billions awarded project delivered for next 3 years. Profit margin 5%  18/3 = 6 billions X 0.05 = 300 millions profit that come from new building, convertion and specilized shipbuilding.  For ship repair I referenced to recent business update where SCM (500 millions) + KOM (assume 500 millions)  with 1 billions revenue X 0.08 (ship repair usually may see higher margin) = 80 millions. Total Profit = 380 millions / 68 billions share. = 0.056 EPS. Assume PE = 10 for ship building and repair business. = fair value should be $0.56 if business does good as what described in the above forecast.    Eagle88      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 14:12) Posted: If $1.2B/68B shares = $0.0176 per share The share price should be $0.0176 / 5% FD Rate = $0.35 per share. The share price now is only $0.110, so it is very much discountered if the new management is able to deliver the profit based on the revenue that SM can get from the orders on hand

 

Your calculation is taking into consideration of 20% margin that it is hypothetically optimistic  prediction. 
20% does not make sense in current business environment. Why did you use 5% FD in the fraction of $0.0176 earning per share? 
I' m more conservation, presuming 18 billions awarded project delivered for next 3 years. Profit margin 5% 
18/3 = 6 billions X 0.05 = 300 millions profit that come from new building, convertion and specilized shipbuilding. 
For ship repair I referenced to recent business update where SCM (500 millions) + KOM (assume 500 millions)  with 1 billions revenue X 0.08 (ship repair usually may see higher margin) = 80 millions.

Total Profit = 380 millions / 68 billions share. = 0.056 EPS.

Assume PE = 10 for ship building and repair business. = fair value should be $0.56 if business does good as what described in the above forecast. 
 

Eagle88      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 14:12) Posted: If $1.2B/68B shares = $0.0176 per share The share price should be $0.0176 / 5% FD Rate = $0.35 per share. The share price now is only $0.110, so it is very much discountered if the new management is able to deliver the profit based on the revenue that SM can get from the orders on hand. Eagle88      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 13:59) Posted: If SM can clear the orders in 3 years, Let say it is 18B instead of 20B, so 18B / 3 = 6B / yr, if SM can make 20% profit, it will be 1.2B a year. It is very much depends on how the new management to carry out the operations and cost control etc. SM must have the capacity to digest the orders and to deliver ontime and collect all the payments

 

thanks for the analysis. super helpful. 
kam seh ha mi da. :))

Eagle88      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 14:12) Posted: If $1.2B/68B shares = $0.0176 per share The share price should be $0.0176 / 5% FD Rate = $0.35 per share. The share price now is only $0.110, so it is very much discountered if the new management is able to deliver the profit based on the revenue that SM can get from the orders on hand. Eagle88      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 13:59) Posted: If SM can clear the orders in 3 years, Let say it is 18B instead of 20B, so 18B / 3 = 6B / yr, if SM can make 20% profit, it will be 1.2B a year. It is very much depends on how the new management to carry out the operations and cost control etc. SM must have the capacity to digest the orders and to deliver ontime and collect all the payments

 

If $1.2B/68B shares = $0.0176 per share

The share price should be $0.0176 / 5% FD Rate = $0.35 per share. The share price now is only $0.110, so it is very much discountered if the new management is able to deliver the profit based on the revenue that SM can get from the orders on hand.

Eagle88      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 13:59) Posted: If SM can clear the orders in 3 years, Let say it is 18B instead of 20B, so 18B / 3 = 6B / yr, if SM can make 20% profit, it will be 1.2B a year. It is very much depends on how the new management to carry out the operations and cost control etc. SM must have the capacity to digest the orders and to deliver ontime and collect all the payments. Andrewtan18      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 11:34) Posted: NTA refers to Tangible Assets less Liabilities. Tangible assets are physical assets or cash reflected on the balance sheet. SMM has an order book from customers valued at $18b. This item is off balance sheet and is therefore not part of tangible asset. It is however an indication of future income. So your concern about NTA being $0.07 when compared to share price is misplaced.

 

If SM can clear the orders in 3 years, Let say it is 18B instead of 20B, so 18B / 3 = 6B / yr, if SM can make 20% profit, it will be 1.2B a year. It is very much depends on how the new management to carry out the operations and cost control etc. SM must have the capacity to digest the orders and to deliver ontime and collect all the payments.

Andrewtan18      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 11:34) Posted: NTA refers to Tangible Assets less Liabilities. Tangible assets are physical assets or cash reflected on the balance sheet. SMM has an order book from customers valued at $18b. This item is off balance sheet and is therefore not part of tangible asset. It is however an indication of future income. So your concern about NTA being $0.07 when compared to share price is misplaced.  Red_Bean      ( Date: 21-Mar-2023 13:27) Posted: Lol....be more realistic when set your target price ... net tangible assets (NTA) per share for the combined entity is  less than $0.07.

 

👏 👏 👏 👏 👏 well said...30 cents coming....huat ah...hold long for retirement...

Andrewtan18      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 11:34) Posted: NTA refers to Tangible Assets less Liabilities. Tangible assets are physical assets or cash reflected on the balance sheet. SMM has an order book from customers valued at $18b. This item is off balance sheet and is therefore not part of tangible asset. It is however an indication of future income. So your concern about NTA being $0.07 when compared to share price is misplaced.  Red_Bean      ( Date: 21-Mar-2023 13:27) Posted: Lol....be more realistic when set your target price ... net tangible assets (NTA) per share for the combined entity is  less than $0.07.

 

Agree - name change is secondary and reflective of the new vision of where the company should and will be. Focus is on the details of the strategy and the new management' s execution ahead to take the group there

FATABA      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 10:25) Posted: I am just awaiting SM to announce the next project and new CEO Chris to make his first speech and plan for the new SM  New SM will never be the same again ..w or without name change.    Christrade      ( Date: 21-Mar-2023 23:06) Posted: 😁 😁 天 天 福 满 家

 

NTA refers to Tangible Assets less Liabilities. Tangible assets are physical assets or cash reflected on the balance sheet. SMM has an order book from customers valued at $18b. This item is off balance sheet and is therefore not part of tangible asset. It is however an indication of future income. So your concern about NTA being $0.07 when compared to share price is misplaced. 

Red_Bean      ( Date: 21-Mar-2023 13:27) Posted: Lol....be more realistic when set your target price ... net tangible assets (NTA) per share for the combined entity is  less than $0.07.

 

Very strong support at 109, so any time will break 110...

tofudidi      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 11:18) Posted: wait for the 1 mouth clear 110

 

wait for the 1 mouth clear 110

 

I booked my SCM & Keppel holding costs at $0 & $5.39 respectively. So no stress whatever is SCM price. Anyway, I believe more good things akan datang for SCM with new management in charge. 💰 🧧

newbie19      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 10:43) Posted: Yes exactly like i said earlier on....... It will never be the same.. FATABA      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 10:25) Posted: I am just awaiting SM to announce the next project and new CEO Chris to make his first speech and plan for the new SM  New SM will never be the same again ..w or without name change.

 

Yes exactly like i said earlier on.......
It will never be the same..

FATABA      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 10:25) Posted: I am just awaiting SM to announce the next project and new CEO Chris to make his first speech and plan for the new SM  New SM will never be the same again ..w or without name change.    Christrade      ( Date: 21-Mar-2023 23:06) Posted: 😁 😁 天 天 福 满 家

 

I am just awaiting SM to announce the next project and new CEO Chris to make his first speech and plan for the new SM 
New SM will never be the same again ..w or without name change. 
 

Christrade      ( Date: 21-Mar-2023 23:06) Posted: 😁 😁 天 天 福 满 家 newbie19      ( Date: 21-Mar-2023 16:58) Posted: 说 的 好 。 天 天 来 ， 天 天 笑 。 😁 😁