Post Reply
621-640 of 1003
All the " small actions" behind the US Trade Talk........tsk...tsk......
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2181118/north-korean-leader-kim-jong-un-spends-his-birthday-talks
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un spends his birthday in talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping
- Kim seeks to strengthen Pyongyang&rsquo s position ahead of meeting with US President Donald Trump, expected within weeks
Time to plan for the possible outcome of the US China Trade Talk.
IMO, this trade talk will not have any significant break through and the outcome is likely to be below market expectation, this might not be so obvious in the beginning as currently many investors are still in the " feel good mood" .
1) So at best a knee jerk up then correction or
2) Correction after the statement from the Trade Talk is release.
Luzern ( Date: 04-Jan-2019 09:04) Posted:
I am expecting a bounce, at minimum, an intra day bounce fuel by the gowing (investors will only grow more confident as the hours and minutes pass, they are still in shock mode, paralysed) expectation of a market positive statement from Powell and the good feeling effect of gthe coming trade talk.IMO, DYODD.
Luzern ( Date: 04-Jan-2019 08:47) Posted:
What can Powell say to bring on another correction.
1) The US economy appears to be slowing further data is needed to confirm the trend. (still unconvinced of the slowdown)
2) We will be following the data closely to adjust the pace of interest rate hike. (re-active rather than foreward looking, unconvince of the slowdown)
3) The unwinding of the Feb asset will continue at its current pace and will be adjusted if the situation calls for it. (re-active and not taking active steps to ensure liquidity in the economy and in fact sucking liquidity from the economy) |
|
|
|
- Samsung Electronics said on Tuesday that its fourth-quarter earnings likely decreased sharply due to lackluster demand in its memory chip business as well growing competition in the smartphone segment.
- The South Korean tech giant predicted operating profit for the three months ended December was approximately 10.8 trillion Korean won ($9.67 billion), which was below the 13.2 trillion won that analysts predicted, and a 38.5 percent drop from the previous quarter.
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2180980/china-us-will-come-something-defuse-trade-war-hong-kong
China, US will &lsquo come up with something&rsquo to defuse trade war, Hong Kong scholar predicts
- Vice-ministerial level delegation from the United States in Beijing for two days of face-to-face talks on Monday and Tuesday
- Lawrence J. Lau &lsquo confident&rsquo truce agreed between President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump will lead to further de-escalation of tensions
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/07/central-banks-are-not-the-fixers-of-last-resort---commentary.html
Central banks are not &mdash and never should be &mdash the fixers of last resort
- Americans are not trade warriors. They are the victims of decades-old unabashed mercantilism that Washington continues to tolerate.
- Asking the Federal Reserve to make up for the damage done by rising trade deficits and an unaffordable fiscal policy, is unmistakably a quick road to recession.
- Let the Fed focus on price stability to maintain the economy within its noninflationary physical limits to growth.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/07/us-china-trade-talks-trump-will-be-push-to-make-a-trade-deal-with-china-should-markets-continue-to-tank.html
More stock market carnage could force Trump to make a China trade deal, expert says
- President Donald Trump will be pushed to make a trade deal with China should markets continue to slide, said Pushan Dutt, an economics and political science professor at INSEAD business school.
- The U.S. and China will hold vice ministerial level trade talks in Beijing on Jan 7-8, according to the Chinese commerce ministry.
- Dutt acknowledged that the issues at hand are " very complex and difficult," and both parties will unlikely come to a comprehensive deal at the end of a 90-day trade truce &mdash but there will likely be some sort of a smaller agreement, he said.
Waiting for the 2nd " punch" to come true, likely on 8 Jan 2018. At the mean time, today' s a good day to pull in some of the nets during the high tide.......Huat Ah!
Bingo!......China cut bank reserve ratio......keke.
Huat Ah!
Luzern ( Date: 03-Jan-2019 10:11) Posted:
| In view of the slow down, I am expecting the Chinese Govt to inject liquidity/credits into her economy. |
|
First " punch" came true between Powell and the other Fed Officials, they delivered everything the market want to hear and Dow responded with a 700+ point swing. Huat Ah!
.....Ka-ching!
Luzern ( Date: 04-Jan-2019 11:21) Posted:
Just waiting to see if the 1 & 2 " punches" came true to " knock out" the Bears..............
Luzern ( Date: 03-Jan-2019 15:23) Posted:
| US China Trade war officially started in Mar 2018, the first tariff took effect in Jun 2018.......so it shouldn' t come as a surprise that business will be hit by the tariffs quarters down the road. In fact the markets have been doing just that, correcting on the expected impact of the Trade Tariffs. But when the numbers came out to confirmed the expected, there is still some knee jerk reaction, probably from the die hards who refuse to see expected the impact of the Tariffs (and finally capitulated when the data came out) and its also a good opportunity for the Bears to make an issue of it. Do keep in mind that the US and China Trade Talk is taking place on 7 jan 2019 in Beijing, and that Powell will be talking this Friday in US........these 2 events could just be the left and right punches to knock-out the remaining Bears.......IMO, DYODD. |
|
|
|
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/03/apple-shows-the-us-and-china-have-both-taken-hits-in-trade-war-and-could-be-motivated-to-reach-a-deal-.html
Apple' s woes show US and China are taking hits in trade war &mdash and that could push them to make deal
- The U.S. and China have a better chance of striking a trade deal, now that the U.S. is beginning to feel a bigger pinch from the trade war after Apple' s earnings warning and a sharp drop in U.S. manufacturing activity, economists said.
- There is a window of opportunity to strike a deal before the U.S. economy weakens further and China comes out of its slump later in the year, said one global economist.
- U.S. officials see signs of progress in trade negotiations, ahead of formal talks next week, and see a weaker Chinese economy as a catalyst for it to join talks.
Just waiting to see if the 1 & 2 " punches" came true to " knock out" the Bears..............
Luzern ( Date: 03-Jan-2019 15:23) Posted:
| US China Trade war officially started in Mar 2018, the first tariff took effect in Jun 2018.......so it shouldn' t come as a surprise that business will be hit by the tariffs quarters down the road. In fact the markets have been doing just that, correcting on the expected impact of the Trade Tariffs. But when the numbers came out to confirmed the expected, there is still some knee jerk reaction, probably from the die hards who refuse to see expected the impact of the Tariffs (and finally capitulated when the data came out) and its also a good opportunity for the Bears to make an issue of it. Do keep in mind that the US and China Trade Talk is taking place on 7 jan 2019 in Beijing, and that Powell will be talking this Friday in US........these 2 events could just be the left and right punches to knock-out the remaining Bears.......IMO, DYODD. |
|
That' s true - volatility traders like green n red.
Luzern ( Date: 04-Jan-2019 10:37) Posted:
Soon we Chinese also want to see red.......Chinese New Year and all things red prosperity.. Volatility Traders like both Green and Red.
Qanghoo ( Date: 04-Jan-2019 10:23) Posted:
| But now ang moh love to see red leh |
|
|
|
Counting my Blessings........! Huat Ah!
Luzern ( Date: 04-Jan-2019 09:04) Posted:
I am expecting a bounce, at minimum, an intra day bounce fuel by the gowing (investors will only grow more confident as the hours and minutes pass, they are still in shock mode, paralysed) expectation of a market positive statement from Powell and the good feeling effect of gthe coming trade talk.IMO, DYODD.
Luzern ( Date: 04-Jan-2019 08:47) Posted:
What can Powell say to bring on another correction.
1) The US economy appears to be slowing further data is needed to confirm the trend. (still unconvinced of the slowdown)
2) We will be following the data closely to adjust the pace of interest rate hike. (re-active rather than foreward looking, unconvince of the slowdown)
3) The unwinding of the Feb asset will continue at its current pace and will be adjusted if the situation calls for it. (re-active and not taking active steps to ensure liquidity in the economy and in fact sucking liquidity from the economy) |
|
|
|
Soon we Chinese also want to see red.......Chinese New Year and all things red prosperity.
. Volatility Traders like both Green and Red.
Qanghoo ( Date: 04-Jan-2019 10:23) Posted:
But now ang moh love to see red leh?
Luzern ( Date: 04-Jan-2019 09:39) Posted:
I like the colour of GREEN...........of nature and of US$.... |
|
|
|
But now ang moh love to see red leh?
Luzern ( Date: 04-Jan-2019 09:39) Posted:
I like the colour of GREEN...........of nature and of US$....
Luzern ( Date: 04-Jan-2019 09:04) Posted:
| I am expecting a bounce, at minimum, an intra day bounce fuel by the gowing (investors will only grow more confident as the hours and minutes pass, they are still in shock mode, paralysed) expectation of a market positive statement from Powell and the good feeling effect of gthe coming trade talk.IMO, DYODD |
|
|
|
I like the colour of
GREEN...........of nature and of US$....
Luzern ( Date: 04-Jan-2019 09:04) Posted:
I am expecting a bounce, at minimum, an intra day bounce fuel by the gowing (investors will only grow more confident as the hours and minutes pass, they are still in shock mode, paralysed) expectation of a market positive statement from Powell and the good feeling effect of gthe coming trade talk.IMO, DYODD.
Luzern ( Date: 04-Jan-2019 08:47) Posted:
What can Powell say to bring on another correction.
1) The US economy appears to be slowing further data is needed to confirm the trend. (still unconvinced of the slowdown)
2) We will be following the data closely to adjust the pace of interest rate hike. (re-active rather than foreward looking, unconvince of the slowdown)
3) The unwinding of the Feb asset will continue at its current pace and will be adjusted if the situation calls for it. (re-active and not taking active steps to ensure liquidity in the economy and in fact sucking liquidity from the economy) |
|
|
|
If Powell is as hardworking as we read him to be and there is no sudden change in his style. We expect him to do some research on what language the market wants to heard now and use them tonight. I bet he did not expected to crashed the market (Dow) by over -2000pts previously with his statement, its is actually more of his choice of words that kills it. So this time round, we expect him to learn a thing or 2 and be more careful..... IMO, DYODD. There is a small outside chance than his " guay lan" side might show under pressure. If that happens and the market crashed, then his career with Feb will be over rather abruptly.
I am expecting a bounce, at minimum, an intra day bounce fuel by the gowing (investors will only grow more confident as the hours and minutes pass, they are still in shock mode, paralysed) expectation of a market positive statement from Powell and the good feeling effect of gthe coming trade talk.IMO, DYODD.
Luzern ( Date: 04-Jan-2019 08:47) Posted:
What can Powell say to bring on another correction.
1) The US economy appears to be slowing further data is needed to confirm the trend. (still unconvinced of the slowdown)
2) We will be following the data closely to adjust the pace of interest rate hike. (re-active rather than foreward looking, unconvince of the slowdown)
3) The unwinding of the Feb asset will continue at its current pace and will be adjusted if the situation calls for it. (re-active and not taking active steps to ensure liquidity in the economy and in fact sucking liquidity from the economy).
Luzern ( Date: 04-Jan-2019 08:40) Posted:
What can Powell say to bring cheer to the market.......
1) Acknowledge that the US economy is slowing down and inflation risk has been greatly reduced.
1) Interest rate is very close to neutral or at neutral
2) Slowing down of the unwinding of the Feb Asset sale. (currently at US$50B/mnth) |
|
|
|
Its a good thing that Mr Lighthizer is not schedule to go to Beijing for the trade talk. He is a tough one and have a higher pain threshold than Trump, hence, he will be tougher on China than Trump, even at the expense of the economy which he probably will take as necessary short term pain for long term benefits. IMO
