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On Friday, the announcement that the US labor market had deteriorated in April was well received by investors. It's not as paradoxical as one might think: in the minds of investors, if employment falters, the US central bank will have no reason to maintain a restrictive monetary policy. The stock markets, which had been in the doldrums for part of the week, found reason for hope on Friday.
This according to a commentary by marketscreener.
A cautionary note is, the fed made it clear that it will not reduce rates until inflation is brought nearer to its target 2 percent.
But let's continue to hope inflation come down.
This according to a commentary by marketscreener.
A cautionary note is, the fed made it clear that it will not reduce rates until inflation is brought nearer to its target 2 percent.
But let's continue to hope inflation come down.
Good show put on by the dow this morning. People do buy even when fearful.
That is a good sign.
May Is turning out to be a time of investing in a strong economy. Good job report for USA and Good earnings.
https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-futures-rise-140-points-ahead-of-apple-results-and-as-bond-yields-dip/card/dow-ends-over-300-points-higher-as-treasury-yields-fall-KRKeJeOHamTZ0SMubRRs?mod=election-2020
It's beginning to look good in early May
No selling away as yet.
Way to go!
That is a good sign.
May Is turning out to be a time of investing in a strong economy. Good job report for USA and Good earnings.
https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-futures-rise-140-points-ahead-of-apple-results-and-as-bond-yields-dip/card/dow-ends-over-300-points-higher-as-treasury-yields-fall-KRKeJeOHamTZ0SMubRRs?mod=election-2020
It's beginning to look good in early May
No selling away as yet.
Way to go!
What is US market mood now?
Check it out
Fear and Greed Index - Investor Sentiment | CNN
Someone said, buy when other are fearful, and sell when others are greedy.
You know what to do.
Check it out
Fear and Greed Index - Investor Sentiment | CNN
Someone said, buy when other are fearful, and sell when others are greedy.
You know what to do.
No more rate hikes.
Really?
That is the mood now in US markets.
https://qz.com/dow-jumps-after-fed-decision-jerome-powell-1851448752
Really?
That is the mood now in US markets.
https://qz.com/dow-jumps-after-fed-decision-jerome-powell-1851448752
The Fed has timed their announcement on their rate decision on 1 May. That is a bad start as we all know the sell away in May habit is so deeply ingrained in us.
On the SGX, as some companies go xd, yes, there will be a fall in the stock price. However, the fall is usually greater than what dividends that could cover back. So why do people sell in May?
I think it is herd mentality, otherwise it could be people are not satisfied with the 1Q results. There have been times when the sell-off were not apparent because of a rebound. I can think of the 2009 May rebound on the SGX after hitting lows in March that year.
From more recent data (2012-2023) taken from my portfolio of SG stocks, the May sell-downs happened in 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023.
Only in 2014 and 2017 were there actually gains.
Noteworthy is also the sell-downs in the Mays of 2015 and 2018 occurred after year highs in April of the corresponding years.
So, from 2012-23, it is just over 80% of the time there was a May sell off. Not a good sample size for the long term and definitely restricted only to SG stocks which track the STI.
How will this May turn out?
From the recent historical records and present conditions, I think the chances of a sell down in May are higher than a buy up.
May is definitely not for the faint-hearted. Many traders stay away in May.
What about you?
On the SGX, as some companies go xd, yes, there will be a fall in the stock price. However, the fall is usually greater than what dividends that could cover back. So why do people sell in May?
I think it is herd mentality, otherwise it could be people are not satisfied with the 1Q results. There have been times when the sell-off were not apparent because of a rebound. I can think of the 2009 May rebound on the SGX after hitting lows in March that year.
From more recent data (2012-2023) taken from my portfolio of SG stocks, the May sell-downs happened in 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023.
Only in 2014 and 2017 were there actually gains.
Noteworthy is also the sell-downs in the Mays of 2015 and 2018 occurred after year highs in April of the corresponding years.
So, from 2012-23, it is just over 80% of the time there was a May sell off. Not a good sample size for the long term and definitely restricted only to SG stocks which track the STI.
How will this May turn out?
From the recent historical records and present conditions, I think the chances of a sell down in May are higher than a buy up.
May is definitely not for the faint-hearted. Many traders stay away in May.
What about you?
Dow fell just over 570 points overnite as fear returned to US markets.
Looking at the trading patterns of the last few sessions, it seems that investors are still fearful of a possible delay in rate cuts.
But all said, trading is expected to be volatile these few days over the rate decision. So a drop of about 1.5% is still reasonable. Let' s see what happens on May Day when the rate decision is announced. Happy Labor Day to all!
Looking at the trading patterns of the last few sessions, it seems that investors are still fearful of a possible delay in rate cuts.
But all said, trading is expected to be volatile these few days over the rate decision. So a drop of about 1.5% is still reasonable. Let' s see what happens on May Day when the rate decision is announced. Happy Labor Day to all!
Wall Street traders and investors watched the benchmark averages close higher on Monday after markets rallied in the previous trading week.
" Markets got the week off to a decent start yesterday, with the S& P 500 (+0.32%) building on last week&rsquo s advance as we await the Fed&rsquo s decision tomorrow and an array of earnings releases," said Deutsche Bank' s Jim Reid.
The 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) rose 5 basis points to 4.67%. The 2-year yield (US2Y) advanced 4 basis points to 5.02%.
" The lack of any bad news on inflation supported government bonds on both sides of the Atlantic, with some added support from the fall in energy prices," said Reid.
Traders are keenly waiting for Jerome Powell' s press conference scheduled for Wednesday and the Fed' s decision on its monetary policy. The Fed meeting has started today and will conclude tomorrow. It is widely expected that the Fed will hold rates.
MrBear12 ( Date: 30-Apr-2024 21:36) Posted:
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Really, nobody knows when US will cut rates. See below
Interest rates: It&rsquo s a mystery when the Fed will begin to cut them | CNN Business
Interest rates: It&rsquo s a mystery when the Fed will begin to cut them | CNN Business
Singapore?s Burnout Rate Shows the Price of Success
It?s time for one of the most stressed places on the planet to recognize that accomplishments can mean different things.
Bloomberg article today above.
Relax - that is pandas rule. Not to over react to markets.
Restore and heal take time.
Trade with detachment
It?s time for one of the most stressed places on the planet to recognize that accomplishments can mean different things.
Bloomberg article today above.
Relax - that is pandas rule. Not to over react to markets.
Restore and heal take time.
Trade with detachment
Sun tzu said,
Warfare is the way of deception...
Display profits to entice them.
It is interesting Sun tzu mentioned displaying profits to entice people. In trading, that also seems to be the case. We often hear and see people making big profits in a big manner. We are really being deceived by the news. We fall for it. We lose.
So our insight 3 from Sun Tzu is simply this, watch out when others display profits. They may merely be enticing you. Don't fall for it.
It was a turbulent week for the financial markets, torn between rising inflation in the United States, which takes the prospect of a rate cut further away, and mixed quarterly results on both sides of the Atlantic. Volatility rose sharply, but in the end the indices held firm, with the tech giants once again reassuring the market. Although rates are widely expected to remain unchanged next week, the market will pay close attention to Jerome Powell's comments.
From us at market screeners
From us at market screeners
Ants are amazing creatures. As a line of them move on the wall, they greet each other as they pass and scurry to their work place.
O sluggard! Go learn from the ant!
O sluggard! Go learn from the ant!
Traders must look at macroeconomic fundamentals.
Below is one such article with advice from MAS.
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/singapore/singapore-must-prepare-slower-growth-higher-costs-mas
Below is one such article with advice from MAS.
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/singapore/singapore-must-prepare-slower-growth-higher-costs-mas
Maintain 1 to 3 percent growth. For2024.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/taylor-swift-coldplay-concerts-singapore-economy-mas-4292951
Singapore economy robust.
All set for a bull run.
Bro ssw,
Bro shangli and fatpanda will be so happy to hear you hear again.
Fed has made it clear that when inflation is under control and kept nearer the 2percent target, interest rates will drop
US consumer spending remains strong as long as jobs are available and unless there is an economic downturn where we see jobs cut and consumer spending lower, US economy is still in good stead
Relax, like fatpanda.
Happy hunting game in CapitaLand
It?s a land for capital.
Bro shangli and fatpanda will be so happy to hear you hear again.
Fed has made it clear that when inflation is under control and kept nearer the 2percent target, interest rates will drop
US consumer spending remains strong as long as jobs are available and unless there is an economic downturn where we see jobs cut and consumer spending lower, US economy is still in good stead
Relax, like fatpanda.
Happy hunting game in CapitaLand
It?s a land for capital.
reason for the drop is mainly interest rate again if you look at overall data
of coz the poor earning and lower forecast is another hit.
Fed say inflation lower, rate cut but CPI went up
Shareholder want more profit but result disappointing.
Only good thing is jobs so far, so question falls on how / where money is spent,
might need to look into trade data, i gut feel is cheaper items imported.
Most likely Fed will bring forward the cut as jobless cliam likely to increase
when more company make more move to cut down expenditure,
unless increase tax on China goods can spur spending on US goods...etc.
jus my view/ tcss
of coz the poor earning and lower forecast is another hit.
Fed say inflation lower, rate cut but CPI went up
Shareholder want more profit but result disappointing.
Only good thing is jobs so far, so question falls on how / where money is spent,
might need to look into trade data, i gut feel is cheaper items imported.
Most likely Fed will bring forward the cut as jobless cliam likely to increase
when more company make more move to cut down expenditure,
unless increase tax on China goods can spur spending on US goods...etc.
jus my view/ tcss
MrBear12 ( Date: 25-Apr-2024 23:08) Posted:
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Interlude - RELAX
US economy is still strong. How do we know?
There are still jobs. See below article on latest jobless claims in the USA.
US weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fall (msn.com)
US economy is still strong. How do we know?
There are still jobs. See below article on latest jobless claims in the USA.
US weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fall (msn.com)
Suntzu insight 2
In general, whoever occupies the battle ground first and awaits the enemy will be at ease. Whoever occupied the battleground afterward and must race to the conflict will be fatigued. Thus one who excels at warfare compels men and is not compelled by other men.
Being ready early to do battle on the trading floor gives the trader an advantage as he surveys his killing fields before anyone else comes. Why do traders sleep so little and burn out so quickly?
The winning investor originates the moves and others follow to his tune. Like a bagpiper leading the mice, they are creative at playing beautiful tunes to itching ears.
Listen then, if you have ears!
In general, whoever occupies the battle ground first and awaits the enemy will be at ease. Whoever occupied the battleground afterward and must race to the conflict will be fatigued. Thus one who excels at warfare compels men and is not compelled by other men.
Being ready early to do battle on the trading floor gives the trader an advantage as he surveys his killing fields before anyone else comes. Why do traders sleep so little and burn out so quickly?
The winning investor originates the moves and others follow to his tune. Like a bagpiper leading the mice, they are creative at playing beautiful tunes to itching ears.
Listen then, if you have ears!
https://ycharts.com/indicators/10_year_treasury_rate#:~:text=Basic%20Info,a%20maturity%20of%2010%20year.
Treasury yields for US 10 Yr steady at 4.61.
Will it stay steady?
We all hope so
Treasury yields for US 10 Yr steady at 4.61.
Will it stay steady?
We all hope so
SunTzu on military disposition - insight 1
" In antiquity those who excelled in warfare first made themselves unconquerable in order to wait for the moment when the enemy could be conquered."
Unconquerable did not mean invincible.
It meant that through defensive positions in terms of fortifications, terrain and military disposition, one can be temporarily remain unconquerable.
This could be taken as an exhortation to dealing in so called ' defensive' stocks.
These stocks are common stocks of large companies with assets > 10 bn.
They have a solid track of continuous dividends payouts up to 20 years back.
Investors should limit the price they pay for these to say 25 times average p/e for the past 7 years.
A portfolio of (10 to 30) such stocks can be set up.
" In antiquity those who excelled in warfare first made themselves unconquerable in order to wait for the moment when the enemy could be conquered."
Unconquerable did not mean invincible.
It meant that through defensive positions in terms of fortifications, terrain and military disposition, one can be temporarily remain unconquerable.
This could be taken as an exhortation to dealing in so called ' defensive' stocks.
These stocks are common stocks of large companies with assets > 10 bn.
They have a solid track of continuous dividends payouts up to 20 years back.
Investors should limit the price they pay for these to say 25 times average p/e for the past 7 years.
A portfolio of (10 to 30) such stocks can be set up.