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You don't really understand global and Singapore shipbuilding industry.
What brought sembmar and keppel growth from 200X to 2015 are offshore drilling rigs and construction vessels.
What you said seaborne trade are commercial vessels which are belong to hyundai, Samsung and China state owned or yangzijiang, Keppel and sembmar cannot compete with them in term of capacity, speed of construction and track record.
Only oil price shoot more than 120 usd per barrels may trigger another round of offshore vessel construction for offshore oil exploration or else, keppel and sembmar only can survive with repair vessels passby singapore or some conversion project to change the function of the vessels.
Why oil price was crashed since 2015 because of shale oil in USA and its cost of production only less than usd50 per barrels. So it is uncertain and sembmar may continue to bleed and temasek may has to dump in another round if 5 year later still Don't see improvement on offshore market.
What brought sembmar and keppel growth from 200X to 2015 are offshore drilling rigs and construction vessels.
What you said seaborne trade are commercial vessels which are belong to hyundai, Samsung and China state owned or yangzijiang, Keppel and sembmar cannot compete with them in term of capacity, speed of construction and track record.
Only oil price shoot more than 120 usd per barrels may trigger another round of offshore vessel construction for offshore oil exploration or else, keppel and sembmar only can survive with repair vessels passby singapore or some conversion project to change the function of the vessels.
Why oil price was crashed since 2015 because of shale oil in USA and its cost of production only less than usd50 per barrels. So it is uncertain and sembmar may continue to bleed and temasek may has to dump in another round if 5 year later still Don't see improvement on offshore market.
ADS2200 ( Date: 20-Aug-2020 18:25) Posted:
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josemmm123, yes, they are interwined because of the free SMM shares. thanks
josemmm123 ( Date: 20-Aug-2020 19:06) Posted:
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I got a theory why Semb marine is bashed down.
1) Bash Semb marine down so that less investors will subscribe. ==> SCI shareholders will get more SMM shares. aka near to 4.92 free SMM shares.
2) Start collecting SCI at around 1.80 region (queue a few thousands lots at 1.80 and below to collect) as SCI investors on seeing SMM share price getting near 20 cents and start panic and fear SMM will go below 20 cents then start selling. BBs accumulate at 1.80+.
3) Then after the acceptance of rights for SMM closed on 2 September, start pushing SMM share price to say 23-25 cents.
4) On the 7 September, Temasek annouces SCI shareholders can get close to 4.92 SMM shares as not many SMM investors subscribe.
5) So now double delight, i) SMM share price going up to 23-25 cents and ii) free 4.92 SMM shares (close to 4.92)
6) SCI (CE) share price chiong... BBs earn huge profit... SMM share price being used pushed up in order to push up SCI too. SMM is cheaper to push as it is cheaper. BBs double delight too.
All these are just now personal opinion. So sit tight, I suspect SMM share price will rebound after 2 September :)
1) Bash Semb marine down so that less investors will subscribe. ==> SCI shareholders will get more SMM shares. aka near to 4.92 free SMM shares.
2) Start collecting SCI at around 1.80 region (queue a few thousands lots at 1.80 and below to collect) as SCI investors on seeing SMM share price getting near 20 cents and start panic and fear SMM will go below 20 cents then start selling. BBs accumulate at 1.80+.
3) Then after the acceptance of rights for SMM closed on 2 September, start pushing SMM share price to say 23-25 cents.
4) On the 7 September, Temasek annouces SCI shareholders can get close to 4.92 SMM shares as not many SMM investors subscribe.
5) So now double delight, i) SMM share price going up to 23-25 cents and ii) free 4.92 SMM shares (close to 4.92)
6) SCI (CE) share price chiong... BBs earn huge profit... SMM share price being used pushed up in order to push up SCI too. SMM is cheaper to push as it is cheaper. BBs double delight too.
All these are just now personal opinion. So sit tight, I suspect SMM share price will rebound after 2 September :)
well, sci certainly got back not just their loan $1.5b, temasek have ownership into the coy. gearing will also reduce after the rights exercise. my part is 100,000 rights about $20,000 or buy the mother share if it is lower than 20c
well i have 5 more days to decide ... limited $$
read somewhere " The global shipbuilding market is expected to grow in future due to increasing seaborne trade and economic growth, rising energy consumption, demand of eco-friendly ships and shipping services. ... The shipbuilding market is expected to grow at a slow but steady pace during the forecast period"
well i have 5 more days to decide ... limited $$
read somewhere " The global shipbuilding market is expected to grow in future due to increasing seaborne trade and economic growth, rising energy consumption, demand of eco-friendly ships and shipping services. ... The shipbuilding market is expected to grow at a slow but steady pace during the forecast period"
chart_expert123 ( Date: 20-Aug-2020 17:57) Posted:
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total vol of share 7,477,900 buy 3,547,000 sell 2,685,000 excluding the block trades.
total vol of rights 146,244,700
total vol of rights 146,244,700
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chart_expert123 ( Date: 20-Aug-2020 10:23) Posted:
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Equity Holder VS Creditor.
Equity Holder need profit and cash gain from the company to increase its value.
Creditor owned the rights to sell off the assets to repay what they lent to the company.
Today rights is a typical case Creditor convert their lent 1.5 billion and force right issue to 1 to 5 at 20 cents.
Unless, from today onward, Sembmar turn profitable and cash gain. Or else, Creditor have their obligation to do what they want. But, anyway, who else the creditor is? DBS banks? at the end all are under one roof.
Equity Holder need profit and cash gain from the company to increase its value.
Creditor owned the rights to sell off the assets to repay what they lent to the company.
Today rights is a typical case Creditor convert their lent 1.5 billion and force right issue to 1 to 5 at 20 cents.
Unless, from today onward, Sembmar turn profitable and cash gain. Or else, Creditor have their obligation to do what they want. But, anyway, who else the creditor is? DBS banks? at the end all are under one roof.
chart_expert123 ( Date: 20-Aug-2020 17:40) Posted:
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A cash burnt company basically worth nothing.
ADS2200 ( Date: 20-Aug-2020 17:23) Posted:
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based on the last trading price of $0.85/share, the theoretical terp was 30.8c/share
today mothershare traded 20.5 - 21c while the rights is 0.02c.
to go in now skip all the shaking before the announcement. still need to have a clear mind. haha ... $20,000 is a lot of money plus paying for the rights $100-$200 + brokerage fee.
please share your view
today mothershare traded 20.5 - 21c while the rights is 0.02c.
to go in now skip all the shaking before the announcement. still need to have a clear mind. haha ... $20,000 is a lot of money plus paying for the rights $100-$200 + brokerage fee.
please share your view
agree 0.1c is the lowest. still waiting for 0.001. only prepared max 100,000 @ 0.1c - $100 no choice got to pay brokerage and all is equal to rights share. 100,000 rights share is $20,000 that the max
wondering who is buying @ 0.2c ?
don' t undertsand why temasek will want to take the coy private with the whitewash resolution. with more than 80% they can shape the coy.
next thursday is the last trading day for the rights - 5 working days
yesterday top vol for the rights, today top 2
wondering who is buying @ 0.2c ?
don' t undertsand why temasek will want to take the coy private with the whitewash resolution. with more than 80% they can shape the coy.
next thursday is the last trading day for the rights - 5 working days
yesterday top vol for the rights, today top 2
uiop1223 ( Date: 20-Aug-2020 11:52) Posted:
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Haha
uiop1223 ( Date: 20-Aug-2020 11:52) Posted:
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Rights now dropped to $0.001 😂 min price. Cannot drop any lower
i don' t know what you mean whitewash resolution.
Whoever are familiar with stock market especially involve in USA stock market. you will understand the procedure encountered by Sembmar now, happen day and day in USA for company protection. The main purpose is to recapitalization to keep the key or important company in the country to survive through the industry crisis and reduce the impact to country employment condition, at the same time, expect the company can survive. company like GM, BOA, AA and etc were launched such recapitalization before and survive till today.
Just after the recapitalization, the shareholding will be different. Temasek pay for the price 2.1 billion for recapitalization and own the majar shareholding of sembmar. Just to be in their shoes to think, they are not taking any advantage on others but to settle the worst financial condition with sembmar now. Without their action, sembmar may have to close down. They only can hope the industry crisis can be over, Sembmar can continue to survive. Whether they will privatization, it is really up to them. I didn' t say temasek will privatise. I only say temasek has full control to do what they want to keep the company survive without asking public which include to divest the company assets or merge with others or etc.
Whoever are familiar with stock market especially involve in USA stock market. you will understand the procedure encountered by Sembmar now, happen day and day in USA for company protection. The main purpose is to recapitalization to keep the key or important company in the country to survive through the industry crisis and reduce the impact to country employment condition, at the same time, expect the company can survive. company like GM, BOA, AA and etc were launched such recapitalization before and survive till today.
Just after the recapitalization, the shareholding will be different. Temasek pay for the price 2.1 billion for recapitalization and own the majar shareholding of sembmar. Just to be in their shoes to think, they are not taking any advantage on others but to settle the worst financial condition with sembmar now. Without their action, sembmar may have to close down. They only can hope the industry crisis can be over, Sembmar can continue to survive. Whether they will privatization, it is really up to them. I didn' t say temasek will privatise. I only say temasek has full control to do what they want to keep the company survive without asking public which include to divest the company assets or merge with others or etc.
ADS2200 ( Date: 20-Aug-2020 10:43) Posted:
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thinking of waiting before the last day of trading rights then decide to buy or not. if below 20c buy mothershare?
AlanJpe ( Date: 19-Aug-2020 17:28) Posted:
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you said temasek to launch a privatization. if that is their intention then why need the whitewash resolution ?
chart_expert123 ( Date: 20-Aug-2020 10:23) Posted:
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doubt so. Sembmar without temasek and SCI at back to support. Today Sembmar will be facing financial liquidate like other offshore companies.
20 cents per shares are the price temasek willing to buy the public unsubscribed rights. furthermore, sembmar are in fact still making loss and burning cash quarter by quarter.
It should not be too optimistic and expect anyone will buy the balance public share at premium price, especially, market is floating with 20 cents 5 times of rights which can purchase anytime now. whoever understand what has happened, will know that the shares hold by temasek has given the right to temasek to delist the company or restructure the company.
Just face the fact and trade carefully.
20 cents per shares are the price temasek willing to buy the public unsubscribed rights. furthermore, sembmar are in fact still making loss and burning cash quarter by quarter.
It should not be too optimistic and expect anyone will buy the balance public share at premium price, especially, market is floating with 20 cents 5 times of rights which can purchase anytime now. whoever understand what has happened, will know that the shares hold by temasek has given the right to temasek to delist the company or restructure the company.
Just face the fact and trade carefully.
randommonkey ( Date: 19-Aug-2020 21:19) Posted:
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They won' t sell it to foreign company based on their re-capitalization plan.
You can refer to below news, especially the re-capitalization plan.
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/sembcorp-marine-to-raise-21-billion-with-support-from-temasek-demerge
Last year, SCI raised 1.5billion bond from Temasek to restructure Sembcorp marine finance position to repay the high interest loan.
Instead of asking sembcorp marine to pay back the 1.5bilion. SCI and Temasek plan to settle the borrowing with right subcription. Furthermore, Temasek will come out another 600million to support the right issue to buy all the rights which are not subscribed by existing public shareholders.
Before recapitalization plan, SCI owned 61% share and temasek owned 0% and public shareholders owned 39%.
After recapitalization, SCI and Temasek may owned 35.4% and 58% respectively, in total 93.4% share and public shareholder may owned 6.6% if the majority of 1 to 5 rights are not subcribed by public shareholders and all will be bought by Temasek as per plan.
As such, Temasek will fully owned 93.4% directly and indirectly. Temasek has the right to launch a privatization anytime to delist Sembmar, the price highly likely settle at around right issue price or lower.
Through this round right issue or recapitalization, basically existing public shareholders are wiped out already.
The next plan is by Temasek how to keep the sembcorp marine survive and continue to keep few thousand employees under the group umbrella. Whether, Keppel will divest their keppel offshore & marine and buy over sembcorp marine, all are up to temasek to decide. There is no room for public shareholders to decide anymore
You can refer to below news, especially the re-capitalization plan.
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/sembcorp-marine-to-raise-21-billion-with-support-from-temasek-demerge
Last year, SCI raised 1.5billion bond from Temasek to restructure Sembcorp marine finance position to repay the high interest loan.
Instead of asking sembcorp marine to pay back the 1.5bilion. SCI and Temasek plan to settle the borrowing with right subcription. Furthermore, Temasek will come out another 600million to support the right issue to buy all the rights which are not subscribed by existing public shareholders.
Before recapitalization plan, SCI owned 61% share and temasek owned 0% and public shareholders owned 39%.
After recapitalization, SCI and Temasek may owned 35.4% and 58% respectively, in total 93.4% share and public shareholder may owned 6.6% if the majority of 1 to 5 rights are not subcribed by public shareholders and all will be bought by Temasek as per plan.
As such, Temasek will fully owned 93.4% directly and indirectly. Temasek has the right to launch a privatization anytime to delist Sembmar, the price highly likely settle at around right issue price or lower.
Through this round right issue or recapitalization, basically existing public shareholders are wiped out already.
The next plan is by Temasek how to keep the sembcorp marine survive and continue to keep few thousand employees under the group umbrella. Whether, Keppel will divest their keppel offshore & marine and buy over sembcorp marine, all are up to temasek to decide. There is no room for public shareholders to decide anymore
iggyiggs ( Date: 19-Aug-2020 20:52) Posted:
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will buy out from u at a premium, usually 20 to 30% at prevailing price or volume weighted average price over x period of time
iggyiggs ( Date: 19-Aug-2020 20:52) Posted:
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Quick question here.. I bought at 0.623. Currently at a loss of -66%.
Im thinking of just holding it to reduce the loss.
Since it's under TH, chances are low it will go bust right?
What happens if they sell it to a foreigner? The shares we hold will be nothing?
Im thinking of just holding it to reduce the loss.
Since it's under TH, chances are low it will go bust right?
What happens if they sell it to a foreigner? The shares we hold will be nothing?
Doubt so. The Mega yard at Tues south are new and strategy regional Shipyard which are part of the important assets for Singapore which will not be sold to foreign company.
It would be still under temasek and just how temasek would like to restructure it.
It would be still under temasek and just how temasek would like to restructure it.
uiop1223 ( Date: 19-Aug-2020 17:21) Posted:
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If someone own 1000 SCM shares bought during the highs of $5. Now got 5000 rights. Sell at 0.002, x5 = 0.01 ($10). Pay $20+ brokerage. Still need to top-up?
uiop1223 ( Date: 19-Aug-2020 10:55) Posted:
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