SIA    Last:6.81    -0.16

SIA

I remember some years back when there was a srike going on in India n the fighting intensfying in the middle east a passenger on Singapore airline flight was arguing with the SQ pilot about not taking off from Amsterdam. The disgruntled passenger was pissed said other airlines were flyng and he did not see why the SQ pilot refused to fly. The pilot' s response was," SQ did not become a leader in the industry by following others......" unfortunately they cut their fuel surcharge only when others cut theirs. They are not leading but following. With regards to the article........//www.todayonline.com/singapore/closer-integration-between-sia-scoot-tigerair-natural-evolution-lui-tuck-yew. I don' t agree with his reasoning at all. He said Tigerair stake is not good for SQ.....Not true........ It was reported Sq numbers were helped by profits from Tigerair. So i would discount what he said. SQ in my opinion is overvalued. But do your own DD. i believe   they have not resumed their buybacks. It would be prudent to pay attention to their forward looking statements. Gong Xi Fa Cai. I hope the Teo family visits all my bros...........

 

Are all those figures inclusive of convertibles?

If not, they are virtually useless figures that distort the actual value of the companies quoted.

 

Hmmm....you have done your research well.

Heard journalists give quite a weighting to his opinions on aviation.

I seem to agree with you that SIA is very rich in valuation but of course theres always the other side of the coin.

ytoh1688      ( Date: 16-Feb-2015 12:10) Posted: is it the well known analyst pointed out in this artice vivivava?   pls confirm http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/closer-integration-between-sia-scoot-tigerair-natural-evolution-lui-tuck-yew vivivava      ( Date: 12-Feb-2015 11:12) Posted: He Yes appeared on bberg n cnbc n CNA many times in the last couple of years.   recently he has moved

 

is it the well known analyst pointed out in this artice vivivava?   pls confirm

http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/closer-integration-between-sia-scoot-tigerair-natural-evolution-lui-tuck-yew

vivivava      ( Date: 12-Feb-2015 11:12) Posted: He Yes appeared on bberg n cnbc n CNA many times in the last couple of years.   recently he has moved  ytoh1688      ( Date: 12-Feb-2015 08:04) Posted: thanks for sharing this?   Any hints of the analyst here? He or she? Appeared on bloomberg and CNBC before?

 

Although fuel surcharge reduction is announced, SIA still manage to close positive. Hardly find any news to hit SIA. 14 dollars is achievable in 3 month times.

 

This is 2014 performance. What past is past, let it go. Let' s look forward 2015 potential performance

DATE: 6 Feb 15   Dividend Yields of 30 Component Stocks in Straits Times Index (STI) No Name Last Done Net Div Div Yield (%) PE Rem My opinion 1 Ascendas Reit 2.510 0.142 5.67 12.53 - -Profit and dividend will drop in 2015 due to downward pressure of rental and oversupply, div will be reduced. avoid 2 CapitaLand 3.550 0.080 2.25 17.79 - -Property market is going to be worse in 2015 3 CapitaMall Trust 2.190 0.108 4.95 12.25 - -Profit and dividend will drop in 2015 due to downward pressure of rental and oversupply, div will be reduced. avoid 4 CityDev 10.180 0.080 0.79 13.81 - -Property market is going to be worse in 2015. avoid 5 ComfortDelGro 2.950 0.070 2.36 23.98 - -Bus business in SG will be affected, share price has been up a lot in 2015, downward pressure come in. avoid 6 DBS 19.380 0.573 2.96 13.06 - -If property market don' t meltdown due to interst rate hiking in 2H 2015, Profit will be breaking record. buy 7 Genting Sing 1.040 0.010 0.97 21.31 - -High end customers are reduced, black money washing chance is less. new approval Jeju Island resort is far away. 1 dollar shall be broken. Compared to LVS listed in US, Genting price is ex. avoid 8 Global Logistic 2.490 0.044 1.78 14.65 - -No familiar 9 Golden Agri-Res 0.455 0.011 2.42 14.83 - -Pure Palm oil counter. Over supply will be continue, Soy bean over supply continue pressure the cooking oil market in 2015. avoid 10 HongkongLand USD 7.900 0.180 2.28 15.63 - -no familiar, so long as property stock. avoid. 11 HPH Trust USD 0.720 0.053 7.35 29.03 - -Port growth is not rapid anymore. not point to buy 12 Jardine C& C 41.980 1.367 3.26 13.02 - -Profit mainly come from Indonesia. Car sales is slow down in last 3 months (about 15 to 20% less y/y) due to removal oil subsidy. Low commodity price is going to restrict or lower down the commercial and mining vehicle selling. avoid. 13 JMH USD 64.900 1.379 2.13 28.63 - -no familiar 14 JSH USD 35.140 0.255 0.73 23.16 - -no familiar 15 Keppel Corp 8.930 0.480 5.38 8.59 CD Low oil price reduce rig orders. Bought keppel land and face the downward risk. Petrobras situation is not good and payment will be delayed or facing risk of cancellation. avoid. 16 Noble 1.155 0.011 0.98 28.78 - -Recent push up due to fund managers buy in. Expect share price will go up till before result release. After get rid of plantation commodity, put their focus on shale oil in US and power station. Coming quarter is critical to know if the business model that they invest in shale oil industry is linked to low oil price. wait and see. Fund managers won' t buy without reason. 17 OCBC Bank 10.560 0.293 2.78 15.76 - -If property market don' t meltdown due to interst rate hiking in 2H 2015, Profit will be breaking record. buy 18 Olam Intl 2.030 0.050 2.46 8.39 - -avoid 19 Sembcorp Ind 4.260 0.150 3.52 9.31 - -may be dragged by semborp marine. avoid 20 Sembcorp Marine 3.080 0.110 3.57 11.58 - -Low oil price reduce rig orders. Petrobras situation is not good and payment will be delayed or facing risk of cancellation. avoid. 21 SGX 8.140 0.280 3.44 27.21 - -bad trading vol in SGX. 22 SIA 12.130 0.211 1.74 39.44 - -buy 23 SIA Engineering 4.150 0.199 4.80 17.51 - -recent clash may raise concern of mainteinance of fleet. Low oil price will give more profit margin to airlines and allow for major maintenance. Buy 24 SingTel 4.150 0.168 4.05 18.12 - -Stable company. 25 SPH 4.120 0.150 3.64 16.48 - -Due to portfolio in property market, avoid 26 ST Engineering 3.430 0.070 2.04 18.36 - -no up no down, buy also no use 27 StarHub 4.280 0.199 4.66 19.93 - -pure dividend, no potential to grow 28 ThaiBev 0.730 0.017 2.37 24.82 - -no familiar 29 UOB 23.530 0.688 2.93 12.54 - -If property market don' t meltdown due to interst rate hiking in 2H 2015, Profit will be breaking record. buy 30 Wilmar Intl 3.280 0.080 2.44 12.57 - -no up no down. commodity giant, diversify enough.         STI Average PE 18.10

ytoh1688      ( Date: 13-Feb-2015 12:22) Posted: DATE: 6 Feb 15   Dividend Yields of 30 Component Stocks in Straits Times Index (STI)   No Name Last Done Net Div Div Yield (%) PE Rem Ex-Div Date 1 Ascendas Reit 2.510 0.142 5.67 12.53 - - 2 CapitaLand 3.550 0.080 2.25 17.79 - - 3 CapitaMall Trust 2.190 0.108 4.95 12.25 - - 4 CityDev 10.180 0.080 0.79 13.81 - - 5 ComfortDelGro 2.950 0.070 2.36 23.98 - - 6 DBS 19.380 0.573 2.96 13.06 - - 7 Genting Sing 1.040 0.010 0.97 21.31 - - 8 Global Logistic 2.490 0.044 1.78 14.65 - - 9 Golden Agri-Res 0.455 0.011 2.42 14.83 - - 10 HongkongLand USD 7.900 0.180 2.28 15.63 - - 11 HPH Trust USD 0.720 0.053 7.35 29.03 - - 12 Jardine C& C 41.980 1.367 3.26 13.02 - - 13 JMH USD 64.900 1.379 2.13 28.63 - - 14 JSH USD 35.140 0.255 0.73 23.16 - - 15 Keppel Corp 8.930 0.480 5.38 8.59 CD 22-Apr-15 16 Noble 1.155 0.011 0.98 28.78 - - 17 OCBC Bank 10.560 0.293 2.78 15.76 - - 18 Olam Intl 2.030 0.050 2.46 8.39 - - 19 Sembcorp Ind 4.260 0.150 3.52 9.31 - - 20 Sembcorp Marine 3.080 0.110 3.57 11.58 - - 21 SGX 8.140 0.280 3.44 27.21 - - 22 SIA 12.130 0.211 1.74 39.44 - - 23 SIA Engineering 4.150 0.199 4.80 17.51 - - 24 SingTel 4.150 0.168 4.05 18.12 - - 25 SPH 4.120 0.150 3.64 16.48 - - 26 ST Engineering 3.430 0.070 2.04 18.36 - - 27 StarHub 4.280 0.199 4.66 19.93 - - 28 ThaiBev 0.730 0.017 2.37 24.82 - - 29 UOB 23.530 0.688 2.93 12.54 - - 30 Wilmar Intl 3.280 0.080 2.44 12.57 - -         STI Average PE 18.10     For value investors only

 

DATE: 6 Feb 15

 

Dividend Yields of 30 Component Stocks in Straits Times Index (STI)

 

No	Name	Last Done	Net Div	Div Yield (%)	PE	Rem	Ex-Div Date
1	Ascendas Reit	2.510	0.142	5.67	12.53	-	-
2	CapitaLand	3.550	0.080	2.25	17.79	-	-
3	CapitaMall Trust	2.190	0.108	4.95	12.25	-	-
4	CityDev	10.180	0.080	0.79	13.81	-	-
5	ComfortDelGro	2.950	0.070	2.36	23.98	-	-
6	DBS	19.380	0.573	2.96	13.06	-	-
7	Genting Sing	1.040	0.010	0.97	21.31	-	-
8	Global Logistic	2.490	0.044	1.78	14.65	-	-
9	Golden Agri-Res	0.455	0.011	2.42	14.83	-	-
10	HongkongLand USD	7.900	0.180	2.28	15.63	-	-
11	HPH Trust USD	0.720	0.053	7.35	29.03	-	-
12	Jardine C& C	41.980	1.367	3.26	13.02	-	-
13	JMH USD	64.900	1.379	2.13	28.63	-	-
14	JSH USD	35.140	0.255	0.73	23.16	-	-
15	Keppel Corp	8.930	0.480	5.38	8.59	CD	22-Apr-15
16	Noble	1.155	0.011	0.98	28.78	-	-
17	OCBC Bank	10.560	0.293	2.78	15.76	-	-
18	Olam Intl	2.030	0.050	2.46	8.39	-	-
19	Sembcorp Ind	4.260	0.150	3.52	9.31	-	-
20	Sembcorp Marine	3.080	0.110	3.57	11.58	-	-
21	SGX	8.140	0.280	3.44	27.21	-	-
22	SIA	12.130	0.211	1.74	39.44	-	-
23	SIA Engineering	4.150	0.199	4.80	17.51	-	-
24	SingTel	4.150	0.168	4.05	18.12	-	-
25	SPH	4.120	0.150	3.64	16.48	-	-
26	ST Engineering	3.430	0.070	2.04	18.36	-	-
27	StarHub	4.280	0.199	4.66	19.93	-	-
28	ThaiBev	0.730	0.017	2.37	24.82	-	-
29	UOB	23.530	0.688	2.93	12.54	-	-
30	Wilmar Intl	3.280	0.080	2.44	12.57	-	-
				STI Average PE	18.10

investing 101, Buy Red and sell Green. You will get a personal visit from Benjamin Graham

 

DATE: 6 Feb 15

 

Dividend Yields of 30 Component Stocks in Straits Times Index (STI)

 

No	Name	Last Done	Net Div	Div Yield (%)	PE	Rem	Ex-Div Date
1	Ascendas Reit	2.510	0.142	5.67	12.53	-	-
2	CapitaLand	3.550	0.080	2.25	17.79	-	-
3	CapitaMall Trust	2.190	0.108	4.95	12.25	-	-
4	CityDev	10.180	0.080	0.79	13.81	-	-
5	ComfortDelGro	2.950	0.070	2.36	23.98	-	-
6	DBS	19.380	0.573	2.96	13.06	-	-
7	Genting Sing	1.040	0.010	0.97	21.31	-	-
8	Global Logistic	2.490	0.044	1.78	14.65	-	-
9	Golden Agri-Res	0.455	0.011	2.42	14.83	-	-
10	HongkongLand USD	7.900	0.180	2.28	15.63	-	-
11	HPH Trust USD	0.720	0.053	7.35	29.03	-	-
12	Jardine C& C	41.980	1.367	3.26	13.02	-	-
13	JMH USD	64.900	1.379	2.13	28.63	-	-
14	JSH USD	35.140	0.255	0.73	23.16	-	-
15	Keppel Corp	8.930	0.480	5.38	8.59	CD	22-Apr-15
16	Noble	1.155	0.011	0.98	28.78	-	-
17	OCBC Bank	10.560	0.293	2.78	15.76	-	-
18	Olam Intl	2.030	0.050	2.46	8.39	-	-
19	Sembcorp Ind	4.260	0.150	3.52	9.31	-	-
20	Sembcorp Marine	3.080	0.110	3.57	11.58	-	-
21	SGX	8.140	0.280	3.44	27.21	-	-
22	SIA	12.130	0.211	1.74	39.44	-	-
23	SIA Engineering	4.150	0.199	4.80	17.51	-	-
24	SingTel	4.150	0.168	4.05	18.12	-	-
25	SPH	4.120	0.150	3.64	16.48	-	-
26	ST Engineering	3.430	0.070	2.04	18.36	-	-
27	StarHub	4.280	0.199	4.66	19.93	-	-
28	ThaiBev	0.730	0.017	2.37	24.82	-	-
29	UOB	23.530	0.688	2.93	12.54	-	-
30	Wilmar Intl	3.280	0.080	2.44	12.57	-	-
				STI Average PE	18.10

For value investors only

 

Good info but this is known. Market is more bullish on the saving that SIA can achieve.

ytoh1688      ( Date: 13-Feb-2015 11:49) Posted: Singapore-Middle East non-stop capacity (weekly return seats) by carrier: Jul-2015 vs Jul-2014 Airline Jul-2015 Jul-2014 % change Emirates 22,600 seats 17,500 seats 29% Qatar Airways 11,500 seats 8,200 seats 40% Singapore Airlines 5,600 seats 7,500 seats -25% Etihad Airways 3,700 seats 3,700 seats 0% Saudia 2,300 seats 2,300 seats 0% Total 45,700 seats 39,200 seats 17% Singapore Changi passenger traffic by region: 2014 vs 2013   Singapore-Europe total one-way seat capacity: Sep-2011 to Jul-2015 Emirates bolsters Singapore point of sales following newturnaround  flight Emirates was able to bolster its presence  significantly in the Singapore-Europe market in Aug-2014, when it added its fourth daily non-stop flight from Dubai to Singapore. The fourth flight, which is operated with 364-seat 777-300s, technically boosted Emirates&rsquo seat capacity between Singapore and Dubai by 29% to about 22,600 weekly return seats. But in reality the growth was significantly higher because a majority of passengers on two of its existing daily Dubai-Singapore frequencies continue on to Australia. With the new turnaround flight the portion of Emirates&rsquo Singapore passengers connecting beyond Changi has been reduced from over 50% to about 35% to 40%. As a result Emirates has seen a significant increase in point of sale activity in Singapore over the last six months, which inevitably has been noticed by SIA and other competitors. Emirates has been able to sell more Singapore-Europe seats and has also boosted Singapore-US  sales from a low base as the new flight combined with Emirates&rsquo expansion in the US has opened up more connections. The  UK  remains Emirates&rsquo biggest connection market from Singapore but Emirates has picked up significant  market share  between Singapore and New York, driven partially by SIA&rsquo s Nov-2013 withdrawal of Singapore-Newark  non-stops. It also has achieved growth on a relatively low base in the Singapore-Africa  market with  Casablanca  being a particularly popular connection. Emirates could look to expand further in Singapore as it targets the corporate market In addition to the four non-stops, Emirates operates one daily one-stop flight from Singapore to Dubai via  Colombo. But this longstanding flight mainly caters to passengers heading to or from  Sri Lanka, limiting opportunities for Singapore-Europe sales. Prior to the launch of the fourth non-stop frequency from Dubai, Emirates for several years had only one flight dedicated to the local Singapore-Middle East/Europe market. This flight was up-gauged to the  A380  in late 2012 and is currently Emirates&rsquo only A380 flight to Singapore. Emirates could potentially up-gauge its second Singapore turnaround flight to the A380, particularly if it is able to continue growing its share of Singapore-Europe traffic as well as its partnership with  Jetstar Asia. Emirates began  codesharing  with  Jetstar  Asia in 2014 and timed its fourth daily non-stop to Singapore to maximise connections to Jetstar Asia-operated offline destinations throughout Southeast Asia. The Jetstar Asia partnership and the additional capacity at Changi further grows Singapore&rsquo s status as an Emirates hub for Asia-Pacific but Emirates also sees opportunities to expand its presence further in the local Singapore market.Emirates is particularly targeting a larger slice of the Singapore corporate market, a sector traditionally dominated by SIA Emirates is particularly targeting a larger slice of the Singapore corporate market, a sector traditionally dominated by SIA. Currently only about 15% to 20% of Emirates&rsquo Singapore revenues are generated by corporate accounts. This should grow as Emirates' connections from Singapore continue to improve and as the airline&rsquo s presence at Changi, where it is already the largest foreign full-service carrier with  a  share of over  3% of total seat capacity, becomes better known. QATAR The new schedule of three daily A350 turnaround flights represents a huge commitment for Qatar to the Singapore market. It particularly is noteworthy as Qatar will be deploying its third, fourth and fifth A350s to the Doha-Singapore route. The first two aircraft are being allocated to the Frankfurt-Doha route. Qatar is currently operating one daily Frankfurt-Doha A350 flight and will transition its second Frankfurt frequency to the A350 on 1-Mar-2015. As a result Singapore will be Qatar&rsquo s second A350 destination. Qatar will also be the first carrier operating the A350 to Singapore, beating SIA by about seven or eight months. SIA has 70 A350-900s on order with the first aircraft expected to be delivered in early 2016. Transitioning Singapore to an all-A350 operation should raise Qatar&rsquo s brand presence in Singapore as it makes a bigger push into the Singapore-Europe and Singapore-Americas market. As is the case with Emirates and Etihad, SIA will be most impacted as SIA accounts for about two-thirds of non-stop seat capacity between Singapore and Europe. Gulf carriers have irreversibly changed Singapore&rsquo s long-haul market The 4% reduction in capacity to Europe come as Gulf carriers continue to expand in the Singapore-Europe market. The reductions will also impact several sixth freedom markets where SIA competes with Gulf carriers, in particular Sydney-London. The capacity reductions may seem relatively minor - but they represent a further shift in the competitive landscape for SIA and the Singapore market. The new premium economy product, along with the reduced economy capacity and its ongoing commitment to continue upgrading its long-haul business class product, reinforces SIA&rsquo s position at the top end of the market. This is as much a response to European and Asian carriers, several of which now offer premium economy options. But it is the Gulf carriers, which have not yet joined the premium economy bandwagon, that have singlehandedly changed the overall dynamic of Singapore&rsquo s long-haul market. There is no end in this battle. The pressure will continue to build as Gulf carriers continue to expand ambitiously in SIA&rsquo s home market.

 

This news is to support what I said 2 months ago about well-hedged companies like SIA takes longer time to enjoy the fall in oil price.

 

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/singapore-airlines-slashes-fuel-surcharges-231500470.html

Singapore Airlines slashes fuel surcharges on back of oil price crash

BigCannonFairy      ( Date: 30-Nov-2014 17:40) Posted: It doesn' t matter how long you hedged your exposures. Let me give you an example=> > > Assuming SIA hedge monthly for next year oil consumption ( 1 year is considered long as normally businesses only hedge 3 months to 5 months earlier). So, March 2014 long oil futures for March 2015, April 2014 long oil futures for April 2015, May 2014    long oil futures for May 2015, So on and so forth.     Lets say Oil price fall in April 2014 and started recovering in JAN 2015, Emirate Air who hedged for next 3 months will be able to start lowering its ticket price in July 2014   while SIA could only start lowering its ticket price by April 2015. Despite able to enjoy the benefit of lower oil price 6 months earlier, Emirate Air ultimately still have to raise its share price when oil price started hiking in 2015. On the other hand SIA gets to enjoy the beneift of lower oil price later but at a time when competitors had to raise their oil price. THE ONLY DIFFERENCES IS WHEN YOU ENJOY THE BENEFIT OF LOWER OIL PRICE AND THE AMOUNT LIQUIDITY YOU HAVE TO MAINTAIN FOR LONGING MORE HEDGING CONTRACTS. Beside that, your hedging tenure make no differences. THE PURPOSE OF HEDING IS TO PROTECT YOUR PROFIT AGANIST MARKET MOVEMENT, THAT' S ALL.   pnuklis      ( Date: 30-Nov-2014 17:07) Posted: SIA must have hedged oil price long ago. They are a very kiasu company and not easy for them to take advantages of the current prices. If they hedge at current prices its effect will be felt after 6 months or a year

 

Singapore-Middle East non-stop capacity (weekly return seats) by carrier: Jul-2015 vs Jul-2014

Singapore Changi passenger traffic by region: 2014 vs 2013



 

Singapore-Europe total one-way seat capacity: Sep-2011 to Jul-2015

Emirates bolsters Singapore point of sales following newturnaround  flight

Emirates was able to bolster its presence  significantly in the Singapore-Europe market in Aug-2014, when it added its fourth daily non-stop flight from Dubai to Singapore. The fourth flight, which is operated with 364-seat 777-300s, technically boosted Emirates&rsquo seat capacity between Singapore and Dubai by 29% to about 22,600 weekly return seats. But in reality the growth was significantly higher because a majority of passengers on two of its existing daily Dubai-Singapore frequencies continue on to Australia.

With the new turnaround flight the portion of Emirates&rsquo Singapore passengers connecting beyond Changi has been reduced from over 50% to about 35% to 40%.

As a result Emirates has seen a significant increase in point of sale activity in Singapore over the last six months, which inevitably has been noticed by SIA and other competitors. Emirates has been able to sell more Singapore-Europe seats and has also boosted Singapore-US  sales from a low base as the new flight combined with Emirates&rsquo expansion in the US has opened up more connections.

The  UK  remains Emirates&rsquo biggest connection market from Singapore but Emirates has picked up significant  market share  between Singapore and New York, driven partially by SIA&rsquo s Nov-2013 withdrawal of Singapore-Newark  non-stops. It also has achieved growth on a relatively low base in the Singapore-Africa  market with  Casablanca  being a particularly popular connection.

Emirates could look to expand further in Singapore as it targets the corporate market

In addition to the four non-stops, Emirates operates one daily one-stop flight from Singapore to Dubai via  Colombo. But this longstanding flight mainly caters to passengers heading to or from  Sri Lanka, limiting opportunities for Singapore-Europe sales. Prior to the launch of the fourth non-stop frequency from Dubai, Emirates for several years had only one flight dedicated to the local Singapore-Middle East/Europe market. This flight was up-gauged to the  A380  in late 2012 and is currently Emirates&rsquo only A380 flight to Singapore.

Emirates could potentially up-gauge its second Singapore turnaround flight to the A380, particularly if it is able to continue growing its share of Singapore-Europe traffic as well as its partnership with  Jetstar Asia. Emirates began  codesharing  with  Jetstar  Asia in 2014 and timed its fourth daily non-stop to Singapore to maximise connections to Jetstar Asia-operated offline destinations throughout Southeast Asia. The Jetstar Asia partnership and the additional capacity at Changi further grows Singapore&rsquo s status as an Emirates hub for Asia-Pacific but Emirates also sees opportunities to expand its presence further in the local Singapore market.Emirates is particularly targeting a larger slice of the Singapore corporate market, a sector traditionally dominated by SIA

Emirates is particularly targeting a larger slice of the Singapore corporate market, a sector traditionally dominated by SIA. Currently only about 15% to 20% of Emirates&rsquo Singapore revenues are generated by corporate accounts. This should grow as Emirates' connections from Singapore continue to improve and as the airline&rsquo s presence at Changi, where it is already the largest foreign full-service carrier with  a  share of over  3% of total seat capacity, becomes better known.

QATAR

The new schedule of three daily A350 turnaround flights represents a huge commitment for Qatar to the Singapore market. It particularly is noteworthy as Qatar will be deploying its third, fourth and fifth A350s to the Doha-Singapore route. The first two aircraft are being allocated to the Frankfurt-Doha route. Qatar is currently operating one daily Frankfurt-Doha A350 flight and will transition its second Frankfurt frequency to the A350 on 1-Mar-2015.

As a result Singapore will be Qatar&rsquo s second A350 destination. Qatar will also be the first carrier operating the A350 to Singapore, beating SIA by about seven or eight months. SIA has 70 A350-900s on order with the first aircraft expected to be delivered in early 2016.

Transitioning Singapore to an all-A350 operation should raise Qatar&rsquo s brand presence in Singapore as it makes a bigger push into the Singapore-Europe and Singapore-Americas market. As is the case with Emirates and Etihad, SIA will be most impacted as SIA accounts for about two-thirds of non-stop seat capacity between Singapore and Europe.

Gulf carriers have irreversibly changed Singapore&rsquo s long-haul market

The 4% reduction in capacity to Europe come as Gulf carriers continue to expand in the Singapore-Europe market. The reductions will also impact several sixth freedom markets where SIA competes with Gulf carriers, in particular Sydney-London.

The capacity reductions may seem relatively minor - but they represent a further shift in the competitive landscape for SIA and the Singapore market.

The new premium economy product, along with the reduced economy capacity and its ongoing commitment to continue upgrading its long-haul business class product, reinforces SIA&rsquo s position at the top end of the market. This is as much a response to European and Asian carriers, several of which now offer premium economy options.

But it is the Gulf carriers, which have not yet joined the premium economy bandwagon, that have singlehandedly changed the overall dynamic of Singapore&rsquo s long-haul market. There is no end in this battle. The pressure will continue to build as Gulf carriers continue to expand ambitiously in SIA&rsquo s home market.

 

I expect 70% fuel cost saving will be returned to Customer and 30% keep for themselves. This is those airline fighting at cost cannot do, the may have to return 80 even 90% back to their customer.

You check the airline ticket fee, you will always know SIA air ticker is always 20 to 30% more expensive to others. Why? because SIA is supported by large group of companies which their concerns are the safety of their employee. I worked in 3  companies so far, local and foreign MNC, my companies default and priority airline is always SIA due to safety concern.

The non-regular customers who convern about safety can only fight for the remaining seat and this explain why SIA ticket is always more expensive than others. So long as SIA maintain their safety record and image constantly. They are always the front-runner.

earlybird14      ( Date: 13-Feb-2015 10:19) Posted: PE 30? I don' t know how they measure this figure. Let' s talk about future PE, Latest quarter result, earning per share is 17.3cents or 214.7Million. If we assume the same profit can be made in next 4 quarters, total of EPS will be 69cents, PE will be 17.3. However, we know that the next 4 quarters result will only be better due to fuel cost reduction kick in.  1 year will be Total fuel cost in 2014 is 4.2Billion. We have known the oil price came down from 100 dollar average in 2014 to 50 dollar USD. Since SIA hedge fuel cost at 116 dollar per barrel. I believe they shall continue the policy to hedge after March, this can guarantee that the fuel cost will be hedge at low oil price of 50 dollars. http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=jet-fuel In June when oil was at peaked of 110dollars, the Jet fuel per gallon is 2.85. Now is Feb is 1.75. From here, we can know if SIA really hedge at 50dollars for next 6 months even 1 year, the total fuel cost in 2015 whole year will be 40% reduction which fuel cost saving   in 2015 will be 4.2x0.4 = 1.68Billion. The 1.68Billion will be eventually return to customers However, we don' t know how much SIA is going to return. Let' s say SIA is manage to return 70% to customer and keep 30% for herself, 500Million gain will be counted into the profit, 40cents per share will be added in 2015 and 1.09 dollar per share can be expected in 2015. PE will be reduce to 11. If SIA PE was 30 before oil price coming down, what price will be in 2015 if PE increase to 22 or 30? it is 24 dollars. Bro, let' s look forward from him, my advise to you is to cover your short. SIA is with 5Billion of cash and their future potential due to low oil cost is very high. Look for the future and pick the right share. SIA is your stock future not those REITS or Bonds. earlybird14      ( Date: 13-Feb-2015 09:50) Posted: Price coming down due to the fuel surcharge reduction. If share is so easy to measured by those figure, SIA won' t stay above 10 most of the time during their bad timing, even during 2008-9 crisis. SIA owned Silk air, Tiger, Scoot and Virgin blue in Australia. Tiger and Virgin blue turn around to be profitable. Fuel cost is going down after March. If you shorted this stock, better cover as soon as possible once you got profit. If SIA can stay at this level with present profit level, the next quarter is confirmed going to be better, eventually you will only get burnt.

 

PE 30? I don' t know how they measure this figure. Let' s talk about future PE, Latest quarter result, earning per share is 17.3cents or 214.7Million. If we assume the same profit can be made in next 4 quarters, total of EPS will be 69cents, PE will be 17.3. However, we know that the next 4 quarters result will only be better due to fuel cost reduction kick in.  1 year will be Total fuel cost in 2014 is 4.2Billion. We have known the oil price came down from 100 dollar average in 2014 to 50 dollar USD. Since SIA hedge fuel cost at 116 dollar per barrel. I believe they shall continue the policy to hedge after March, this can guarantee that the fuel cost will be hedge at low oil price of 50 dollars.

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=jet-fuel

In June when oil was at peaked of 110dollars, the Jet fuel per gallon is 2.85. Now is Feb is 1.75. From here, we can know if SIA really hedge at 50dollars for next 6 months even 1 year, the total fuel cost in 2015 whole year will be 40% reduction which fuel cost saving   in 2015 will be 4.2x0.4 = 1.68Billion.

The 1.68Billion will be eventually return to customers However, we don' t know how much SIA is going to return. Let' s say SIA is manage to return 70% to customer and keep 30% for herself, 500Million gain will be counted into the profit, 40cents per share will be added in 2015 and 1.09 dollar per share can be expected in 2015. PE will be reduce to 11.

If SIA PE was 30 before oil price coming down, what price will be in 2015 if PE increase to 22 or 30? it is 24 dollars.

Bro, let' s look forward from him, my advise to you is to cover your short. SIA is with 5Billion of cash and their future potential due to low oil cost is very high.

Look for the future and pick the right share. SIA is your stock future not those REITS or Bonds.

earlybird14      ( Date: 13-Feb-2015 09:50) Posted: Price coming down due to the fuel surcharge reduction. If share is so easy to measured by those figure, SIA won' t stay above 10 most of the time during their bad timing, even during 2008-9 crisis. SIA owned Silk air, Tiger, Scoot and Virgin blue in Australia. Tiger and Virgin blue turn around to be profitable. Fuel cost is going down after March. If you shorted this stock, better cover as soon as possible once you got profit. If SIA can stay at this level with present profit level, the next quarter is confirmed going to be better, eventually you will only get burnt. ytoh1688      ( Date: 13-Feb-2015 09:37) Posted: Title of the article At What Price Would Benjamin Graham Buy Singapore Airlines Ltd http://www.fool.sg/2015/02/10/at-what-price-would-benjamin-graham-buy-singapore-airlines-ltd/

 

Price coming down due to the fuel surcharge reduction.

If share is so easy to measured by those figure, SIA won' t stay above 10 most of the time during their bad timing, even during 2008-9 crisis.

SIA owned Silk air, Tiger, Scoot and Virgin blue in Australia. Tiger and Virgin blue turn around to be profitable. Fuel cost is going down after March.

If you shorted this stock, better cover as soon as possible once you got profit. If SIA can stay at this level with present profit level, the next quarter is confirmed going to be better, eventually you will only get burnt.

ytoh1688      ( Date: 13-Feb-2015 09:37) Posted: Title of the article At What Price Would Benjamin Graham Buy Singapore Airlines Ltd http://www.fool.sg/2015/02/10/at-what-price-would-benjamin-graham-buy-singapore-airlines-ltd/ ytoh1688      ( Date: 13-Feb-2015 09:33) Posted:   For most investors, a quick glance at  Singapore Airlines  (SGX: C6L)  fundamentals would suggest the company is a bit on the expensive side. Its historic price to earnings is a whopping 40. That is around three times the market average. This corresponds to a meagre earnings yield of just 2.5%. Its dividend yield, whilst slightly greater, still stands at a somewhat uninspiring 2.1%. This is roughly in line with the risk-free rate of return currently available on a 10-Year US Treasury bond. One of the most powerful tools available to a value investor is the price to book value. This ratio gives an estimate of the margin of safety in an investment. If a company is priced at a discount to its book value, in other words   the ratio is less than one, then an investor should be able to recoup most of their investment should the investment go badly wrong. Singapore Airlines has a ratio of 1.15. It, thus, offers no such margin of safety. With Singapore Airlines looking fairly dear, what price would the shares have to fall to before it appealed to a value investor such as Graham? Graham would hope for his investments to offer an earnings yield at least twice the risk free rate of return. The risk free rate of return currently stands at around 2%, so we could reasonably hope for an investment to have an earnings yield of around 5%. The current share price is over S$12. If earnings were to remain fairly constant, Singapore airlines would need to see its share price fall by roughly 70% to just under S$3.50 a share to possess an earnings yield of 5%. To fall in line with the market average earnings yield of around 7%, the airline&rsquo s price would have to fall by as much as 80% to a share price of S$2.40. Such price changes are drastic and would likely spell disaster for Singapore Airlines. A focus instead on the dividend yield and price to book ratio might provide more realistic guidance for value investors. The fall in share price required for the dividend yield to rise to 2.5%, just a 0.5% improvement on the risk free return, is similar to that required for the price to book ratio to slip below one. In these two scenarios, a slide of around 15%, to a share price closer to S$10 a share, could alert value investors to a possible value investment. Presently, it would seem that Singapore airlines would have to fall by around 15% to close to at around S$10 a share before it would start to resemble a value opportunity. Even then investors should be wary of the level of risk involved in the investment. The current ratio of 1.15 is quite some way off the value of 2 that Graham would require and would suggest the potential rewards may not compensate for the downside risk. Finally let us not forget the sage words of Warren Buffet, one of Graham&rsquo s disciples, who deems the airline industry a &ldquo death trap&rdquo for investors. http://www.fool.sg/2015/02/10/at-what-price-would-benjamin-graham-buy-singapore-airlines-ltd/

 

Title of the article

At What Price Would Benjamin Graham Buy Singapore Airlines Ltd

http://www.fool.sg/2015/02/10/at-what-price-would-benjamin-graham-buy-singapore-airlines-ltd/

ytoh1688      ( Date: 13-Feb-2015 09:33) Posted:   For most investors, a quick glance at  Singapore Airlines  (SGX: C6L)  fundamentals would suggest the company is a bit on the expensive side. Its historic price to earnings is a whopping 40. That is around three times the market average. This corresponds to a meagre earnings yield of just 2.5%. Its dividend yield, whilst slightly greater, still stands at a somewhat uninspiring 2.1%. This is roughly in line with the risk-free rate of return currently available on a 10-Year US Treasury bond. One of the most powerful tools available to a value investor is the price to book value. This ratio gives an estimate of the margin of safety in an investment. If a company is priced at a discount to its book value, in other words   the ratio is less than one, then an investor should be able to recoup most of their investment should the investment go badly wrong. Singapore Airlines has a ratio of 1.15. It, thus, offers no such margin of safety. With Singapore Airlines looking fairly dear, what price would the shares have to fall to before it appealed to a value investor such as Graham? Graham would hope for his investments to offer an earnings yield at least twice the risk free rate of return. The risk free rate of return currently stands at around 2%, so we could reasonably hope for an investment to have an earnings yield of around 5%. The current share price is over S$12. If earnings were to remain fairly constant, Singapore airlines would need to see its share price fall by roughly 70% to just under S$3.50 a share to possess an earnings yield of 5%. To fall in line with the market average earnings yield of around 7%, the airline&rsquo s price would have to fall by as much as 80% to a share price of S$2.40. Such price changes are drastic and would likely spell disaster for Singapore Airlines. A focus instead on the dividend yield and price to book ratio might provide more realistic guidance for value investors. The fall in share price required for the dividend yield to rise to 2.5%, just a 0.5% improvement on the risk free return, is similar to that required for the price to book ratio to slip below one. In these two scenarios, a slide of around 15%, to a share price closer to S$10 a share, could alert value investors to a possible value investment. Presently, it would seem that Singapore airlines would have to fall by around 15% to close to at around S$10 a share before it would start to resemble a value opportunity. Even then investors should be wary of the level of risk involved in the investment. The current ratio of 1.15 is quite some way off the value of 2 that Graham would require and would suggest the potential rewards may not compensate for the downside risk. Finally let us not forget the sage words of Warren Buffet, one of Graham&rsquo s disciples, who deems the airline industry a &ldquo death trap&rdquo for investors. http://www.fool.sg/2015/02/10/at-what-price-would-benjamin-graham-buy-singapore-airlines-ltd/

 

 

For most investors, a quick glance at  Singapore Airlines  (SGX: C6L)  fundamentals would suggest the company is a bit on the expensive side.

Its historic price to earnings is a whopping 40. That is around three times the market average. This corresponds to a meagre earnings yield of just 2.5%. Its dividend yield, whilst slightly greater, still stands at a somewhat uninspiring 2.1%. This is roughly in line with the risk-free rate of return currently available on a 10-Year US Treasury bond.

One of the most powerful tools available to a value investor is the price to book value. This ratio gives an estimate of the margin of safety in an investment.

If a company is priced at a discount to its book value, in other words   the ratio is less than one, then an investor should be able to recoup most of their investment should the investment go badly wrong. Singapore Airlines has a ratio of 1.15. It, thus, offers no such margin of safety.

With Singapore Airlines looking fairly dear, what price would the shares have to fall to before it appealed to a value investor such as Graham?

Graham would hope for his investments to offer an earnings yield at least twice the risk free rate of return. The risk free rate of return currently stands at around 2%, so we could reasonably hope for an investment to have an earnings yield of around 5%.

The current share price is over S$12. If earnings were to remain fairly constant, Singapore airlines would need to see its share price fall by roughly 70% to just under S$3.50 a share to possess an earnings yield of 5%.

To fall in line with the market average earnings yield of around 7%, the airline&rsquo s price would have to fall by as much as 80% to a share price of S$2.40.

Such price changes are drastic and would likely spell disaster for Singapore Airlines. A focus instead on the dividend yield and price to book ratio might provide more realistic guidance for value investors.

The fall in share price required for the dividend yield to rise to 2.5%, just a 0.5% improvement on the risk free return, is similar to that required for the price to book ratio to slip below one.

In these two scenarios, a slide of around 15%, to a share price closer to S$10 a share, could alert value investors to a possible value investment.

Presently, it would seem that Singapore airlines would have to fall by around 15% to close to at around S$10 a share before it would start to resemble a value opportunity.

Even then investors should be wary of the level of risk involved in the investment. The current ratio of 1.15 is quite some way off the value of 2 that Graham would require and would suggest the potential rewards may not compensate for the downside risk.

Finally let us not forget the sage words of Warren Buffet, one of Graham&rsquo s disciples, who deems the airline industry a &ldquo death trap&rdquo for investors.

http://www.fool.sg/2015/02/10/at-what-price-would-benjamin-graham-buy-singapore-airlines-ltd/

 

 

I will cut loss before that. Expect tomorrow rally resume.

ytoh1688      ( Date: 12-Feb-2015 18:32) Posted: dont worry, i think u have more chance to grab more at 9+ or 10+ earlybird14      ( Date: 12-Feb-2015 17:03) Posted: SIA? no.1? SIA is not no. 1 no matter on service rating or market cap. There are a lot airlines with bigger market cap in the world, especially the main competitors, Emirates and Qatar are not the listed the company. No point to compare technology companies with transportation companies. Like Esso mobil was still no.1 after so many years. there are various reasons for a companies step down and companies step up. I think SIA is doing well so far compared to Qantas Airline. Anyway, i have to admit i miss the chance to buy at 9. now 12 dollar is a bit high. However, i am willing to take the  potential downward risk and expect the better future will come,

 

dont worry, i think u have more chance to grab more at 9+ or 10+

earlybird14      ( Date: 12-Feb-2015 17:03) Posted: SIA? no.1? SIA is not no. 1 no matter on service rating or market cap. There are a lot airlines with bigger market cap in the world, especially the main competitors, Emirates and Qatar are not the listed the company. No point to compare technology companies with transportation companies. Like Esso mobil was still no.1 after so many years. there are various reasons for a companies step down and companies step up. I think SIA is doing well so far compared to Qantas Airline. Anyway, i have to admit i miss the chance to buy at 9. now 12 dollar is a bit high. However, i am willing to take the  potential downward risk and expect the better future will come, ytoh1688      ( Date: 12-Feb-2015 16:49) Posted: lets put it this way, SIA is currently no 1 or so it seems.   The only sure way is down. Apple is no 1 now, before that it was Nokia and Ericsson and Motorola before that it is mistakes like this ...late to premium eco that will surely slide its rank

 

SIA? no.1? SIA is not no. 1 no matter on service rating or market cap. There are a lot airlines with bigger market cap in the world, especially the main competitors, Emirates and Qatar are not the listed the company.

No point to compare technology companies with transportation companies. Like Esso mobil was still no.1 after so many years. there are various reasons for a companies step down and companies step up.

I think SIA is doing well so far compared to Qantas Airline.

Anyway, i have to admit i miss the chance to buy at 9. now 12 dollar is a bit high. However, i am willing to take the  potential downward risk and expect the better future will come,

ytoh1688      ( Date: 12-Feb-2015 16:49) Posted: lets put it this way, SIA is currently no 1 or so it seems.   The only sure way is down. Apple is no 1 now, before that it was Nokia and Ericsson and Motorola before that it is mistakes like this ...late to premium eco that will surely slide its rank earlybird14      ( Date: 12-Feb-2015 16:38) Posted: may be i mistaken on premium eco party. But i will be glad SIA is still profitable and running well without premium eco in the past. This just imply they can improve their margin further with the new policy.

 

lets put it this way, SIA is currently no 1 or so it seems.   The only sure way is down.

Apple is no 1 now, before that it was Nokia and Ericsson and Motorola before that

it is mistakes like this ...late to premium eco that will surely slide its rank

earlybird14      ( Date: 12-Feb-2015 16:38) Posted: may be i mistaken on premium eco party. But i will be glad SIA is still profitable and running well without premium eco in the past. This just imply they can improve their margin further with the new policy. ytoh1688      ( Date: 12-Feb-2015 16:32) Posted: you pay him 3mil a year not 30K a year or 300K a year.   Hes got to get it right because its the no 1 airline in the world..... SIA was late to the premium eco party....dont be mistaken!