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Broke 2.80, likely goes to 2.75 and 2.66 after
If you are reading this thread and wondering why so quiet here, its becoz the discussions are taking place at this thread instead....
http://www.sharejunction.com/sharejunction/listMessage.htm?topicId=18533
Just sharing my observations on Miss Ascendas.
In previous years when approaching a reporting season where she is paying dividends (Jan/Feb and Jul/Aug), it was typical for
her to firm up in the month of Jan/July and peak just before or just after result and dividends are announced. Hence, a viable strategy
was to slowly accumulate her on dips in the month of Jan/July to position ourselves to take profits just before, at or after that peak.
In most years, by the time we get to the eve of Results Day, she would have run quite a lot such that those who accumulated over
the last 4 weeks would be sitting on a decent pile of profits by then. That didnt happen this time round. Instead, she did the unexpected
by dipping quite a lot in the run-up towards Results Day. Countng from the Last High of 3.05 to the pre-Results low of 2.83, she dipped
an unexpected 22 cts which is rather astonishing.
So this time round, those who bought her throughout Jan in anticipation of her Results cum Dividend Run were blindsided by her
unexpected drop. This type of Sway Sway things do happen from time to time. It is a risk inherent in this game. That' s why people
always say to expect the unexpected.
There are still 3 days of trading next week before she trades XD on Thu, 8 Feb. Could she still run ? Well, she could. But then again,
she may not. It all depends on whether funds have a change of mind and decide to stock up on this REIT to collect the dividends.
She closed at 2.87 on Friday. If she runs next week, can she run 10 cts to 2.97 ? Or 18 cts to her Last High at 3.05 ? I suggest we
lower our expectations so that we dont get our poor aching hearts broken even further.
Back to those years when Ascendas did firm up in the 4-week period leading to Results Day. Sometimes, her run peaked out a day
or two before Results Day. After that, it was downhill. Other times, she continued to surge after Results Day and reached a peak a
day after results. After that, downhill all the way till XD and continued to gap down on XD and fell further to a base to consolidate. But
there were a couple of times after XD, she did gap down at the opening but didnt continue to fall. Instead, she consolidated and not
long after, she firmed up and closed the post-XD gap to recover to pre-XD level. Then higher.
No matter which of the above scenarios played out, one common thread which flowed through all the scenarios was everytime she
fell, once the price is right, whatever that means, the selling will stop and buyers will come out in throngs to support her. After a period
of consolidation, she will be ready to surge again and reward those who put their faith in her. For fans of Ascendas, there is money to
be made for those who have the foresight, the bolas and the capital, to put money to work in her. Understand Ascendas and understand
this is how to play this game and you will find her a very profitable counter to fall in love with.
Spend the weekends to ponder and strategize on what you intend to do if she rises to above your average cost on those 3 trading days
before XD. If she rises high enough to reach your target price, that' s an easy one - just take your profits and happy happy count money.
If she rises about your average cost but falls short of your target price, do you sell anyway to seize the window to get out first so that you
can recall your troops to reload on the cheap after XD .... OR do you roll the dice and hold thru XD to collect the 7.441 cts and wait it out
till her next high tide returns to free you ?
Cant make up your mind which is better ? You can consider keeping half to collect the dividends and selling half to recoup your capital so
that you can reload cheap to average down during the post-XD consolidation. There is one risk though - if this is going to be another one
of those situations where after XD, she didnt drop much and before long, she firmed up to close whatever post-XD gap down to recover to
her pre-XD level and then higher, those lots you sold and missed out on the dividends, you may have to buyback at the same price or higher
price and lose out. If this happens, Boh Pian one. That' s life as a trader. If it happens, just suck it all up and move on. No point crying over
spilt milk. Instead, find another cow to milk.
Thanks! US indexes closed green green! Monday local mkt likely in the green! CLAR LIKELY to rise above 2.91 again! Huat ah!
wavehunter ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 18:14) Posted:
Your crystal bola sipeh CHUN. 
spore1 ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 09:48) Posted:
| Nice! Dividend is coming! Likely to test 2.91 again |
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Bro Stylo,
To make 6-figures is sipeh good.
And if you can enjoy the lifestyle you choose and yet still can save 6-figures a year every year, in no time you will have enough
to be a fund manager for yourself.
You have a good thing going there.
Happy for you.
Stylefashion ( Date: 03-Feb-2024 10:39) Posted:
Hi Bro Wave, it is not fashion apparels and accessories. It is affiliate marketing which provides me 6 figures yearly.
Stock investment is my side line now. Hopefully soon I can depend on stock investment for my living.
wavehunter ( Date: 03-Feb-2024 00:32) Posted:
Online business from home? 
Let me guess. 
Er.... fashion apparels and accessories ? |
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Hi Bro Wave, it is not
fashion apparels and accessories. It is affiliate marketing which provides me 6 figures yearly.
Stock investment is my side line now. Hopefully soon I can depend on stock investment for my living.
wavehunter ( Date: 03-Feb-2024 00:32) Posted:
Online business from home?
Let me guess.
Er.... fashion apparels and accessories ?
Stylefashion ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 22:06) Posted:
Haha.. thanks Bro Wave!
I am doing online business from home. I am able to monitor the movement closely if needed.
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Bro Stylo-Milo,
I am also doing online business from home lare.
Trading stocks lor.
A typical day at work can be...... instead of I tell you, I show you even better.
A picture says a thousand words mah.
.
Haha.. thanks Bro Wave!
I am doing online business from home. I am able to monitor the movement closely if needed.
wavehunter ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 18:08) Posted:
Waaa... you chop chop curry pok fast hand fast leg swift and decisive. Peifu !!!
CONGRAT$ also hor. 
.
Stylefashion ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 16:43) Posted:
Sold mine at 2.90 earlier today.
Just bought back some at 2.86 |
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|
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Your crystal bola sipeh CHUN.
spore1 ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 09:48) Posted:
| Nice! Dividend is coming! Likely to test 2.91 again |
|
Waaa... you chop chop curry pok fast hand fast leg swift and decisive. Peifu !!!
CONGRAT$ also hor.
.
Stylefashion ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 16:43) Posted:
Sold mine at 2.90 earlier today.
Just bought back some at 2.86.
Stylefashion ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 09:54) Posted:
| Bought some at 2.85 yesterday. |
|
|
|
Sold mine at 2.90 earlier today.
Just bought back some at 2.86.
Stylefashion ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 09:54) Posted:
| Bought some at 2.85 yesterday. |
|
Market is forward looking.
This time round, her DPU fell slightly.
Given the challenging operating conditions, the REIT managers did a very good job in steering this ship.
DPU fell only slightly and total dividends for the year (2023) was still above 15 cts and within her usual range of > 15 cts but < 16 cts.
From her reports, what I saw was:
- high portfolio occupancy of 92.4%
- positive average rental reversion of 13.4% for leases renewed in 2023.
- Despite higher interest rates globally, our healthy leverage of 37.9% and a high proportion of fixed rate debt at 79.1% moderated
interest expenses
- gross revenue for FY2023 rose by 9.4% year-on-year
- Net property income (NPI) rose by 5.6% y-o-y tdespite higher utility expenses and higher property taxes related to the Singapore portfolio
- Total amount available for distribution declined by 1.4% y-o-y mainly due to higher interest expenses as a result of the high interest rate
environment.
- . Distribution Per Unit (DPU) declined by 4.0% to 15.160 Singapore cents on account of the lower distribution and the enlarged unit base.
What is note worthy is that in spite of the challenging operating conditions, Ascendas was still able to increase her revenue and net property
income. In other words, she is growing. She achieved what she achieved by growing her revenue, not merely by cutting costs. A business
which is not growing (no increase in revenue) but is able to survive by cutting costs only is an entirely different story from one which is still
growing. Because there is a limit to how much costs you can cut. If your business is not growing and you are relying on cutting costs to
survive, when you have reached the limit of your cost cutting exercise and if by then your business is still not growing, you Peng San leow.
Ascendas is still able to grow her revenue in 2023. And will continue to grow her revenue further in 2024 because she achieved an average
positive rental reversion of 13.4% for the leases renewed in 2023. Going forward, with the improving economic environment and a return
of business confidence, any leases due to renewal in 2024 should see positive, not negative rental reversion. Meaning revenue will continue
to rise.
Total amount available for distribution fell in 2023 mainly due to higher interest expenses. But Fed is going to start cutting interest rate in
the 2nd half of 2024 and will continue their rate cutting exercise into 2025. As rates fall, the total amount available for distribution will rise.
And this rise will be significant because higher interest expenses is the primary reason why DPU fell in 2023.
DPU in 2023 fell by 4% to 15.16 cts due to an enlarged unit base. You guys will recall there was a private share placement exercise in 2023
to raise capital to fund acquisition of new properties. That' s why the number of new units added to the total shareholdings went up.
When DPU drops but there is no increase in the total shareholdings, it means the REIT made less money than it did in the previous year. But
if DPU drops because new shares were issued to fund business expansion, then that' s a different thing. A drop in DPU due to share dilution is
a short term pain for shareholders. But the injection of fresh capital to grow the business will be accretive and positive for the long term growth
of the business.
My assessment is Ascendas will do even better in 2024 than it did in 2023. Which is why she continues to be a fundamentally solid REIT to
be accumulated on dips. Like I always say here, if you buy her each time she takes a dive with money you do not need for 1 year, you will be
fine. You will get your profit window within the next 1 year, big or small. Whether you take your profits is another question.
3 ? strong momentum .....
Stylefashion ( Date: 02-Feb-2024 09:54) Posted:
| Bought some at 2.85 yesterday. |
|
Bought some at 2.85 yesterday.
Nice! Dividend is coming! Likely to test 2.91 again
CapitaLand Ascendas Reit H2 DPU falls 6.1% to S$0.07441
RISING interest rates weighed on CapitaLand Ascendas Reit (Clar), as the business and industrial property player saw distribution per unit (DPU) fall 6.1 per cent year on year to 7.441 Singapore cents for the six months ended Dec 31, 2023.
The DPU decline came even as the Reit&rsquo s H2 gross revenue rose 11 per cent to S$761.7 million, and net property income (NPI) was up 4.6 per cent to S$514.3 million.
For FY2023 overall, Clar&rsquo s DPU was down 4 per cent year on year to 15.16 cents, on the back of a 1.4 per cent fall in the amount available for distribution to S$654.4 million. The Reit attributed this to higher interest expenses, amid the rising rate environment.
&ldquo The uncertain outlook for inflation, geopolitical tensions and risk of faltering growth in China will continue to pose challenges to tenants&rsquo businesses and Clar&rsquo s operating costs,&rdquo the Reit said in its earnings statement on Thursday (Feb 1).
Weighted average all-in cost of debt for FY2023 rose to 3.5 per cent, up from 2.5 per cent a year earlier. Clar has S$869 million in borrowings due to be refinanced in FY2024. Based on current rates, the cost of debt is expected to rise by up to 4 per cent this year, the manager said during a results briefing on Thursday.
Clar&rsquo s full-year revenue was up 9.4 per cent to S$1.5 billion, driven by acquisitions completed in FY2023 and the prior year. Higher occupancy and positive rental reversions in the Singapore portfolio also lifted full-year revenue. The Reit saw a positive average rental reversion of 13.4 per cent for leases that were renewed in FY2023. It is guiding for positive mid-single digit rental reversion in FY2024.
The Reit completed three Singapore acquisitions in FY2023 &ndash 622 Toa Payoh Lorong 1, 1 Buroh Lane and The Shugart &ndash and bought The Chess Building in the UK. It also completed a development in Australia, MQX4, for S$161 million.
William Tay, chief executive of the manager, said during the results briefing that Clar would still look to acquire assets in the countries it is already in, except for Australia, where conditions do not currently allow for accretive acquisitions.
In response to a question on funding for potential acquisitions, Tay noted that Clar has around S$600 million of debt headroom before its gearing hits 40 per cent. It could cross 40 per cent, as with the gearing for some other Reits, but Clar&rsquo s guiding principle is to keep it below that, he added.
&ldquo We will leave our options open on whether it is debt or equity funded,&rdquo he said, adding that some of the Reit&rsquo s debt headroom would also be taken up by asset enhancements or redevelopments.
&ldquo We are prepared to look at developments right now in Europe and US. That actually gives us an opportunity to go into certain cities or locations where we feel there is growth potential,&rdquo he said.
One of the redevelopments being evaluated is the conversion of its Welwyn Garden City data centre in the UK into a 60 megawatt-powered shell data centre targeting hyperscalers.
Despite higher utility expenses and property taxes in the Singapore portfolio, Clar&rsquo s FY2023 NPI rose 5.6 per cent to S$1 billion. For FY2023, the largest sources of new demand by gross rental income were logistics and supply chain management, engineering and the biomedical, as well as agri and aquaculture sectors.
The Reit has a portfolio of 227 investment properties in three key segments: business space and life sciences, industrial and data centres, as well as logistics. These assets are mainly in Singapore, but also in Australia, the US and the UK. Total occupancy stood at 94.2 per cent as at Dec 31.
The weighted average lease expiry (Wale) of Clar&rsquo s portfolio stood at 3.9 years. About 14.6 per cent of its gross rental income will be due for renewal in FY2024. As at Dec 31, the Reit had an aggregate leverage ratio of 37.9 per cent, higher than the 36.3 per cent ratio the year before.
2H23 DPU down 3.6% on the previous half year and down 6.1% YoY. A bad set of results.
