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News affecting Banks

Going forward, assuming a stable or lower interest rate environment....

1) Biz activity will increase, but the dampener is the US-China and US vs other countris trade dispute.
2) Lower interest rate will take the heat off cooperate and personal loans.
3) Funds will start or already at re-balancing their portfolios to chase dividend and yield. A reverse is likely to happen when there is a US-China Trade deal.
4) Need to keep an eye on the Economic data coming out from US China and EU and the all important US-China trade deal.

Luzern ( Date: 28-Mar-2019 09:13) Posted:

1) Global Economy slowing down
2) Q1 2019 results likely to be ugly
3) US Bond yields going down and flashing sign of recession
4) China Cooperate bonds default getting worst, to get funds, they are offering rediculous interest rate in the " teens" , even the number 2 Property Developer in China is doing that.
5) With recent political wins by China, China might take a harder stand on the US-China Trade deal.
6) Our banks' margin is going to get squeezed in the coming qtrs
7) Our property prices are going to start rising again and transactions is likely to pick up further. If the trend continues, in 2 to 4 qtrs, our Govt might take action again.
8) Defensive, dividend counters are the beneficiaries. Question is, will they follow the general market lower in a crash?

Wall Street ends down as Treasury yields fall on slowdown worries

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks eased on Wednesday as Treasury bond yields fell again and a prolonged inversion in the yield curve fanned fears of a U.S. economic slowdown.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-ends-down-as-treasury-yields-fall-on-slowdown-worries-idUSKCN1R817V

A $17 Billion Funding Hole Looms for Developer Evergrande

Hui Ka Yan, China&rsquo s second-richest man, has 17 billion reasons to keep him awake at night.

His property developer,

China Evergrande Group, has debt maturing in 12 months or less that exceeds its cash by 114 billion yuan ($17 billion), its full-year report released late Tuesday showed. The yawning gap is partly the result of a drop in its cash buffer in the second half of 2018.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-27/a-17-billion-funding-hole-looms-for-china-developer-evergrande?srnd=premium-asia

Luzern ( Date: 20-Mar-2019 09:47) Posted:

1) The local mortgage market seems to be improving
2) Global economies are slowing down.
3) Fed are almost not going to raise rate, zeor or 1 hike this year.
4) China is jia lat jia lat.

Banks have been offering higher FD for fresh funds on the assumption that interest rate is going to go up.......that was the case. With Fed slowing or stopping rate increase how much more can the Banks charge for loans?

DBS plan to expand big in India....did they do their due diligence? Do they even know the new banking rules that are coming about the 20 branches thingy. What are other big name foreign banks doing in India. India has one of the worst bad loan issue.

..................................... The banks are going south.......IMO, DYODD.

curious_moo ( Date: 20-Mar-2019 09:38) Posted:

i think the wait for the flush is terrible.. or will it just go up up and beyond..

Bonds are flashing a huge recession signal &mdash here' s what happened to stocks last time it happened

Stocks rise about 15 percent on average in the 18 months following inversions, according to Credit Suisse.
The spread between the 3-month Treasury bill and the 10-year note went into negative territory on Friday, the first time since 2007.
The more widely watched part of the curve &mdash the gap between yields on the 2-year and 10-year debt &mdash falls to just 10 basis points, versus 60 basis points a year ago.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/22/bonds-are-flashing-a-huge-recession-signal--heres-what-happened-to-stocks-last-time-it-happened.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/21/stocks-have-room-to-run-but-the-global-economy-must-pick-up-jp-morgan.html

Stocks have room to run &mdash but the global economy must pick up first, says JP Morgan

" For the rally to really continue, I think the most important thing we' re watching out for is whether the global economy starts responding to a more dovish Fed, a more dovish ECB, to more stimulus from China," says Tai Hui, J.P. Morgan Asset Management' s chief market strategist for Asia.
Hui also said that recent economic data out of the U.S. and China offer some cause for optimism.
Investors have increasingly realized that while tensions between the U.S. and China will likely continue over the long-run, continued negotiations to reach a trade deal in the short-run are positive for the market.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/21/first-quarter-one-of-the-worst-in-recent-years-despite-the-pick-up-in-global-equities-ubs-ermotti-says.html

First-quarter of this year one of the worst despite the global stocks rally, UBS' Ermotti says

The investment banking environment has seen one of the worst first quarters in recent history, the CEO of UBS has warned, who told CNBC that he expects revenues to decline by about a third from a year ago.
" I think that we are facing macro and geopolitical challenges that we all know, but in addition to that the first quarter was lacking any of the elements of positive seasonality this year," Sergio Ermotti, chief executive of UBS, told CNBC' s Joumanna Bercetche on Wednesday.

Countdown to the end of March......., not because of Brexit, that will probably be extended. Its a countdown to quarter end and a repeat of what happen during last year Sept/Oct 2018 period. Fed has warn of a slowdown and are taking action, which, as expected has and will embolden Trump to take a tougher stand on China on Trade. Fedex has warn of a slow down, Apple also selling less in China, Dow bellweather Boeing.....sibei jalat....likely to have record breaking profitability, but huge uncertainty over the 737 Max 8 issue. And finally, ....no rate hike and a tune down of Fed Asset unwinding amount by ~50%, ending in September 2019...... so banks have much less reasons to charge lender higher rates going forward.

IMO, DYODD

Powell Signals Prolonged Fed Pause as Inflation Lags, Risks Loom

By

Jeanna Smialek

and

Matthew Boesler

,

&lrm March&lrm &lrm 21&lrm , &lrm 2019&lrm &lrm 2&lrm :&lrm 00&lrm &lrm AM

Central bank to taper balance-sheet runoff starting in May
Traders lifted the odds of the Fed cutting interest rates

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-20/fed-sees-no-2019-hikes-plans-september-end-to-asset-drawdown

Trump Says Tariffs Will Stay Until China Complies With Deal

By

Jennifer Jacobs

and

Andrew Mayeda

,

&lrm March&lrm &lrm 21&lrm , &lrm 2019&lrm &lrm 12&lrm :&lrm 39&lrm &lrm AM

U.S. wants to leave duties for &lsquo substantial&rsquo period: Trump
President dashes hopes that deal could see rollback of tariffs

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-20/trump-says-tariffs-will-stay-on-until-china-complies-with-a-deal?srnd=premium-asia

Grab with so many Big Big Backers...........the banks are going to get some real competition here. ......Think alone the line of Reliance Jio entry into the India telco market in 2016 and what happen after...................... ....IMO, DYODD.

Someone is here to disrupt and steal the banks' lunch, dinner and breakfast....maybe even Teabreaks.......

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Grab ventures into SME lending and micro-insurance

One product is a post-paid and installment payment service called Pay Later.

Grab Financial Group unveiled its &lsquo Grow with Grab&rsquo roadmap following the launch of its small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) lending and micro-insurance for drivers in Singapore, an announcement revealed.

The &lsquo Grow with Grab&rsquo roadmap reportedly aims to provide a comprehensive portfolio of financial services in Southeast Asia for micro-entrepreneurs and small businesses. It will include a range of services, such as micro-insurance products, post-paid and installment payment services on top of &lsquo Pay with GrabPay&rsquo , an online check-out payment method and point-of-sale (POS) device for online sellers.

&ldquo &lsquo Pay with GrabPay&rsquo online check-out allows online sellers to accept GrabPay as a mobile wallet on their website or platform. Customers can buy their goods online from the same familiar, convenient and secure GrabPay wallet they use on a daily basis for Grab rides and food orders,&rdquo the firm explained. The payment method will first launch in Singapore with merchants such as coffee chain Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf and bakery chain Paris Baguette.

&lsquo Pay with GrabPay&rsquo agreements have also been signed with some of the region&rsquo s biggest merchant gateways, including Adyen, Boku, iPay88, Dragonpay as well as Cathay Cineplexes in Singapore and SM Cinema in the Philippines, the Group revealed.

The Group said it is aiming to become both one of the region&rsquo s largest merchant networks with, the largest insurtech policy provider and the biggest fintech lender, all within one platform.

Also read: Can Grab' s superapp goals work seamlessly?

&ldquo We are doubling down on our financial services offering for micro-entrepreneurs with ' Grow with Grab' . This is a huge untapped opportunity for Grab Financial to support the region&rsquo s entrepreneurs who are less able to access traditional financial institutions,&rdquo Reuben Lai, Senior managing director for Grab Financial Group, said in a statement. &ldquo Whilst SMEs contribute more than 50% of ASEAN&rsquo s gross domestic product (GDP), two thirds of SMEs cite business funding and financing as their biggest problem.&rdquo

Meanwhile, Grab, through its joint-venture with Credit Saison, launched its first full-scale product &lsquo Pay Later&rsquo which is a post-paid and installment payment service. The service offers a post-paid payment facility that allows customers to pay for Grab services at the end of the month with no additional costs. &ldquo This helps consumers who face exceptional expenses, but are keen to avoid being hit with higher credit card or personal loan interest payments,&rdquo the firm explained. &ldquo In the following months, Grab will also launch a &lsquo Pay Later&rsquo installment payment product which allows consumers to buy goods right away and spread installment payments at a 0% interest rate over multiple months.&rdquo

And following its joint-venture with insurer Zhong An in January, Grab is set to launch its insurance marketplace in April. The digital insurance marketplace will be directly available from the Grab app and will offer policies tailored to the lifestyle needs of micro-entrepreneurs.

In the next few weeks, Grab will roll out its prolonged medical leave insurance, which will supplement its earlier announced policy. It will allow driver-partners who are already covered to top-up for more coverage, whilst enabling driver-partners who are not in eligible tiers of the Emerald Circle program to affordably access this insurance for the first time.

Likewise, a personal accident insurance will soon also make its way onto the platform. The personal accident insurance offering in the Grab app will allow driver-partners to top-up their existing insurance policies for more coverage.

Grab Financial&rsquo s 2019 roadmap will soon cover &lsquo pay-as-you-drive&rsquo automotive insurance with fractionalised premiums, which allow driver-partners to only pay for insurance when they are driving as well as micro-life insurance and critical illness insurance policies, the firm commented.

https://sbr.com.sg/financial-services/news/grab-ventures-sme-lending-and-micro-insurance

Reality check...................................coming to a market near you.....Keke....

. Huat Ah!

1) The local mortgage market seems to be improving
2) Global economies are slowing down.
3) Fed are almost not going to raise rate, zeor or 1 hike this year.
4) China is jia lat jia lat.

Banks have been offering higher FD for fresh funds on the assumption that interest rate is going to go up.......that was the case. With Fed slowing or stopping rate increase how much more can the Banks charge for loans?

DBS plan to expand big in India....did they do their due diligence? Do they even know the new banking rules that are coming about the 20 branches thingy. What are other big name foreign banks doing in India. India has one of the worst bad loan issue.

..................................... The banks are going south.......IMO, DYODD.

curious_moo ( Date: 20-Mar-2019 09:38) Posted:

i think the wait for the flush is terrible.. or will it just go up up and beyond...

Luzern ( Date: 20-Mar-2019 09:26) Posted:

What price will DBS, OCBC, UOB be come this April.....May ....and June......?

i think the wait for the flush is terrible.. or will it just go up up and beyond...

Luzern ( Date: 20-Mar-2019 09:26) Posted:

What price will DBS, OCBC, UOB be come this April.....May ....and June......?

US team to fly to Beijing next week for new round of talks to end trade war &ndash as reports say China is pushing back against American requests

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to meet Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He
Officials had hoped that Donald Trump would be able to host Chinese President Xi Jinping by the end of this month, but talks have bogged down

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3002419/us-negotiators-fly-beijing-next-week-new-round

FedEx just warned the whole globe is slowing

FedEx reported declining international revenue as a result of unfavorable exchange rates and the negative effects of trade battles.
" Slowing international macroeconomic conditions and weaker global trade growth trends continue, as seen in the year-over-year decline in our FedEx Express international revenue," says Alan B. Graf, Jr., FedEx Corp. executive vice president and chief financial officer.
FedEx reported weaker-than-expected third-quarter earnings and revenue after the closing bell on Tuesday, and cut full-year guidance

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/19/fedex-just-warned-the-whole-globe-is-slowing.html

Americans are feeling better about the economy than they have in years as 2020 election nears: Poll

Voters think the economy is doing better than they have in nearly two decades, according to a new CNN poll.
That could be good news for President Donald Trump as he runs for re-election in 2020.
It is unclear if voters' rosy outlook on the economy is enough to keep Trump in the White House, as he is still saddled with a relatively poor approval rating.

President Donald Trump has one key factor in his favor ahead of his 2020 re-election bid. Seventy-one percent of Americans say the economy is good, while only 27 percent rate it poor, according to a CNN poll released Monday. The last time respondents to the CNN poll held such rosy views of the economy was 2001..............................

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/18/americans-feel-good-about-economy-ahead-of-trump-2020-re-election-bid.html

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