Post Reply
541-560 of 2510
Although I would be happy to top up more, the fact is that shutdown in US history had been common and always have minimal impact on stock market. Overall impact on S& P is only standing at -0.3%... and the last shutdown of 16days in US had even brought a rise to stock market... US market is way too bullish on corporate earnings and tax reform, we shall see how it plays out... A bubble, definitely, becoz business goes in cycle, but i personally dun think is the right time for now.
A beautiful article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/get-there/wp/2018/01/18/could-a-government-shutdown-spook-the-stock-market/?utm_term=.bf0b9d9ec64d
A beautiful article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/get-there/wp/2018/01/18/could-a-government-shutdown-spook-the-stock-market/?utm_term=.bf0b9d9ec64d
risktaker ( Date: 20-Jan-2018 17:59) Posted:
|
Monday buy on weakness.... cos the gov shut down and the bond yield could very likely trigger a sell down...
risktaker ( Date: 20-Jan-2018 17:41) Posted:
|
Think we going 50c soon by CNY.... :)
Anyway TA side, can friday candlestick be considered a successful test of buyers?
So after plenty of reading, I see a massive overreaction similar to the Macquarie report fiasco.
1) SQM themselves state we are not going to go into oversupply.
2) Joe Lowry says no oversupply coming any time soon.
3) UBS says we are not going to go into oversupply.
A look at UBS predictions illustrates a pattern I see so often - underestimation of demand (often also an overestimation of supply which Roskill was guilty off in the past btw...yet suddenly their word is gospel?).
UBS once predicted 9% EV by 2025.
Then in 2017, they upgraded to 14% EV by 2025 due to EV costs coming down quicker than anticipated (a common theme).
http://www.advantagelithium.com/_resources/pdf/UBS-Article.pdf
The just recently, they upgrade to 16.5% EV, again due to unexpected acceleration in sales.
https://thewest.com.au/business/aut...-lithium-miners-in-drivers-seat-ng-b88683067z
The 14% figure only has 20% PHEVs losing out to fully electric BEVs and thus just this figure pushes us over the 775Kt LCE of output even if SQM's manages to pull off its promised expansion.
'UBS analyst Lachlan Shaw says the SQM deal will not affect lithium supply for at least four or five years given the time required to build the expansions. When SQM's expansion eventually does hit, Mr Shaw says demand should be surging sufficiently to ensure a shortage of lithium.'
Guess hes gonna buy back after reading those reports ..
Alvin2042 ( Date: 19-Jan-2018 18:21) Posted:
|
49cts considered lucky already....can be lower.
risktaker ( Date: 19-Jan-2018 14:20) Posted:
|
The biggest flaw in the analysis is the EV growth is stagnant under their model.... and past model has show analysis fail to understand the growth of EV market... and under estimate the demand of lithium from the EV market and not to say other smart appliance coming into the market.......
Marktay ( Date: 19-Jan-2018 17:46) Posted:
|
Yes lah. Mayb before it complete expansion, already bankrupt. 4-5 yrs is a v loooong time.
s100125 ( Date: 19-Jan-2018 15:05) Posted:
|
I got only a few this morning but was hoping to get more. Anyway, cheat buying is now over. Future buyers have to pay more to buy.
UBS analyst Lachlan Shaw says the SQM deal will not affect lithium supply for at least four or five years given the time required to build the expansions.
When SQM' s expansion eventually does hit, Mr Shaw says demand should be surging sufficiently to ensure a shortage of lithium.
did u load more this morning?
im still holding on... hehe..
im still holding on... hehe..
Superkilat ( Date: 19-Jan-2018 14:49) Posted:
|
BB is back. !!!!!!!
Rebounded. 👍 👍 👍 👍 👍 👍 👍
I can only say lithium should be fine in long term... but becareful of market ... US looks very toppish and treasury yield looks very dangerous...
Good luck...
Good luck...
Lol very sad day.... friend cut loss tawana @ 49
SQM?s New Deal & The Lithium Market Sell Off
Posted on January 19, 2018by thelithiumspot
Summary:
SQM, one of the leading Lithium producers in the world, reached a deal with the Chilean Government to dramatically increase their production. The increase in production will be felt throughout the industry for the next 5-10 years.Lithium stocks sold off heavily due to fears that oversupply would hit the market.
SQM?s New Deal and the Lithium Market Sell Off
SQM finally ended an almost four year long dispute with the Chilean Government, with the latter allowing the company to expand their lithium production quota from around roughly 50-60K tonnes today up to 216,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) through 2025. As a result of this news, the markets responded by selling off lithium stocks across the board out of worries of an oversupply caused by SQM flooding the markets. Here?s our take on what Lithium investors should consider following this news out of SQM.
Impact on the Market: In our opinion, while this is major news affecting the potential supply outlook, it may not meaningfully disrupt markets for another couple of years. While it?s not as extensive as starting from scratch, a brownfield expansion like this for SQM will by no means be an instantaneous change. It?s not like they can just flip a switch and flood the market with new supply. Thus, in the shorter term, the story has not changed.
Pricing: We believe the Oligopoly, and SQM who will now be the driving force of that Oligopoly, will still strive to maintain price stability in order to create the most favorable environment for themselves. As the lowest cost lithium producer, SQM is in the driver seat because the major customers will be coming to them first. So they will bring new supply on in lockstep with market demand. Remember, pricing is important because the higher the pricing = higher margins = Higher Profits for a company = Happier Shareholders (potentially of course?.if only it was that easy!).
Junior Miners: The companies most affected by the news are the junior miners. Those that come online in the next 24 months might be able to carve out a piece of the pie for themselves. But in the longer term horizon, it?ll be tougher for the newer entrants to come into the market. SQM will have the capacity to keep competitors out of the market if they choose. SQM?s announcement must not have been met with great fanfare from future producers who are still 3-5 years out from production. To this point in particular, the financing market could be more challenging following this news for junior miners that still need financing.
Consolidation: We believe the consolidation story becomes ever more important. The more prominent juniors that will be coming online relatively soon and/or have low cost operations could potentially look to buy up great assets that are in development to add to their portfolios and help build their market share. Furthermore, the bigger players (ALB and FMC as an example) will also be buyers in this environment. Think about it this way, ALB was recently complaining about the value of many of the Junior Miners and how much their stocks had run up. After today?s major selloff and potential future sell offs, this will be welcome and exciting news to a company such as ALB.
Market Share: The expansion will allow SQM to dramatically increase their market share. The other dominant producers will no doubt have to scramble to find ways to match SQM?s large scale, low cost production. Albemarle, who also operates in the Atacama, but with a lower quota of 80,000ktpa (though they applied for 125,000ktpa) might not receive the same level of support from the Chilean government given that they are a foreign company. As such, they might look to different sources to bridge the gap, but more on that later. It should also be of interest to see what happens once FMC, one of the original members of the Lithium Oligopoly, spins off their Lithium business later on this year.
Albemarle?s Response. Given ALB?s rivalry with SQM, we believe they will definitely be responding to this news. They want to be in the lead position in the lithium boom going forward, and will strategize to ensure that happens. For starters, they will probably try to maximize any quota expansion negotiations with Chile. Beyond that however, they will look to tap into any further expansions of their assets in Argentina, Australia, and the US. And finally, expect them to be very active in the JV, partnership, or M&A arenas. Management has stated that they are looking for new deals or opportunities, but we believe this news will definitely be lighting a fire under them to get something done. Even before SQM?s negotiations were finalized, SQM formed prominent JVs with Lithium Americas and Kidman Resources, while Albemarle did nothing. Now, ALB has even more ground to make up, and will look start the process soon. If not, we have no doubt that shareholders will let them know their displeasure by voting with their wallets. Just today, the stock was down over 11% before recovering some of those losses to end the day down about 7%. To put that into absolute terms, the company shed over $1.4B in market cap at the lows of the day.
Buying Opportunity: Warren Buffett, one of the most famed investors, is famed for saying ?Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful.? The Lithium selloff could be a great buying opportunity ? the key is to look carefully at all producers following the SQM news release. As an example, current Junior miner producers such as NeoMetals (-3.4%), Galaxy Resources (-8.9%) and Orocobre (-3.7%) are all potential options to look into. Likewise, the story for 2018 producers and 2019 producers has largely not changed at least in the near term. Thus, projects such as Pilbara Minerals(-7.4%), Altura Mining (-6.9%), Tawana Resources (-5%), Lithium America?s (-15%), and Nemaska Lithium (-6.15%) might all be interesting plays to look into following the news release.
Posted on January 19, 2018by thelithiumspot
Summary:
SQM, one of the leading Lithium producers in the world, reached a deal with the Chilean Government to dramatically increase their production. The increase in production will be felt throughout the industry for the next 5-10 years.Lithium stocks sold off heavily due to fears that oversupply would hit the market.
SQM?s New Deal and the Lithium Market Sell Off
SQM finally ended an almost four year long dispute with the Chilean Government, with the latter allowing the company to expand their lithium production quota from around roughly 50-60K tonnes today up to 216,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) through 2025. As a result of this news, the markets responded by selling off lithium stocks across the board out of worries of an oversupply caused by SQM flooding the markets. Here?s our take on what Lithium investors should consider following this news out of SQM.
Impact on the Market: In our opinion, while this is major news affecting the potential supply outlook, it may not meaningfully disrupt markets for another couple of years. While it?s not as extensive as starting from scratch, a brownfield expansion like this for SQM will by no means be an instantaneous change. It?s not like they can just flip a switch and flood the market with new supply. Thus, in the shorter term, the story has not changed.
Pricing: We believe the Oligopoly, and SQM who will now be the driving force of that Oligopoly, will still strive to maintain price stability in order to create the most favorable environment for themselves. As the lowest cost lithium producer, SQM is in the driver seat because the major customers will be coming to them first. So they will bring new supply on in lockstep with market demand. Remember, pricing is important because the higher the pricing = higher margins = Higher Profits for a company = Happier Shareholders (potentially of course?.if only it was that easy!).
Junior Miners: The companies most affected by the news are the junior miners. Those that come online in the next 24 months might be able to carve out a piece of the pie for themselves. But in the longer term horizon, it?ll be tougher for the newer entrants to come into the market. SQM will have the capacity to keep competitors out of the market if they choose. SQM?s announcement must not have been met with great fanfare from future producers who are still 3-5 years out from production. To this point in particular, the financing market could be more challenging following this news for junior miners that still need financing.
Consolidation: We believe the consolidation story becomes ever more important. The more prominent juniors that will be coming online relatively soon and/or have low cost operations could potentially look to buy up great assets that are in development to add to their portfolios and help build their market share. Furthermore, the bigger players (ALB and FMC as an example) will also be buyers in this environment. Think about it this way, ALB was recently complaining about the value of many of the Junior Miners and how much their stocks had run up. After today?s major selloff and potential future sell offs, this will be welcome and exciting news to a company such as ALB.
Market Share: The expansion will allow SQM to dramatically increase their market share. The other dominant producers will no doubt have to scramble to find ways to match SQM?s large scale, low cost production. Albemarle, who also operates in the Atacama, but with a lower quota of 80,000ktpa (though they applied for 125,000ktpa) might not receive the same level of support from the Chilean government given that they are a foreign company. As such, they might look to different sources to bridge the gap, but more on that later. It should also be of interest to see what happens once FMC, one of the original members of the Lithium Oligopoly, spins off their Lithium business later on this year.
Albemarle?s Response. Given ALB?s rivalry with SQM, we believe they will definitely be responding to this news. They want to be in the lead position in the lithium boom going forward, and will strategize to ensure that happens. For starters, they will probably try to maximize any quota expansion negotiations with Chile. Beyond that however, they will look to tap into any further expansions of their assets in Argentina, Australia, and the US. And finally, expect them to be very active in the JV, partnership, or M&A arenas. Management has stated that they are looking for new deals or opportunities, but we believe this news will definitely be lighting a fire under them to get something done. Even before SQM?s negotiations were finalized, SQM formed prominent JVs with Lithium Americas and Kidman Resources, while Albemarle did nothing. Now, ALB has even more ground to make up, and will look start the process soon. If not, we have no doubt that shareholders will let them know their displeasure by voting with their wallets. Just today, the stock was down over 11% before recovering some of those losses to end the day down about 7%. To put that into absolute terms, the company shed over $1.4B in market cap at the lows of the day.
Buying Opportunity: Warren Buffett, one of the most famed investors, is famed for saying ?Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful.? The Lithium selloff could be a great buying opportunity ? the key is to look carefully at all producers following the SQM news release. As an example, current Junior miner producers such as NeoMetals (-3.4%), Galaxy Resources (-8.9%) and Orocobre (-3.7%) are all potential options to look into. Likewise, the story for 2018 producers and 2019 producers has largely not changed at least in the near term. Thus, projects such as Pilbara Minerals(-7.4%), Altura Mining (-6.9%), Tawana Resources (-5%), Lithium America?s (-15%), and Nemaska Lithium (-6.15%) might all be interesting plays to look into following the news release.
Relax.... those who take risk will be reawarded eventually
hatetrollers ( Date: 19-Jan-2018 11:58) Posted:
|
Last 2-3 days' slide has nothing to do with Alliance or BB, it is the Lithium sector weakness.
Marktay ( Date: 19-Jan-2018 09:29) Posted:
|
I like that too :) LOL
risktaker ( Date: 19-Jan-2018 11:11) Posted:
|