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Lol I am right again. The way to trade this counter must be patient. Buy when people are selling and sell when people are buying.
stonkmaster ( Date: 09-Jun-2022 08:17) Posted:
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Yangzijiang Financial Holding (YZJFH SP)
Undervalued Gem Carved Out With Strong Catalyst From Share Buyback
YZJFH is trading at an attractive level and valuation, at around 25% below its first day
IPO opening price and about 50% discount to its book value of S$1.08. Having S$4.2b
of debt investments, YZJFH had a solid earnings track record of S$321m-345m in 2019-
21, implying a PE ratio of about 6x and dividend yield of above 6%. Based on YZJFH&rsquo s
historical mean P/B of 0.84x pre-split, this implies an intrinsic value of S$0.91. YZJFH&rsquo s
P/B is trading at a large discount vs peers. Catalyst: Share buyback.
&bull Solid track record of 9-15% pre-tax ROA since 2011. Yangzijiang Financial Holding&rsquo s
(YZJFH) primary business consists of its debt investment business which invests excess
cash into short-term loans and fixed interest debt instruments, generating recurring
income. From 2011-21, YZJFH&rsquo s investment business has generated an impressive
return track record of 9-15% pre-tax ROA. After the restructuring, YZJFH has plans to
recycle its investment principal from matured loans into its investments management
business. Around 95% of YZJFH&rsquo s S$3.9b in debt investments is expected to mature by
end-22. YZJFH has completed the acquisition of a CMS-licensed fund named GEM
Asset Management (GEM) in Singapore, which has provided investment management
and advisory services for US$2.4b of assets since establishment. Also, YZJFH intends
to set up and provide fund/wealth management services to third-party investors.
&bull Strong sign of confidence from share buyback and insider purchases. YZJFH held
an extraordinary general meeting on 8 Jun 22 and successfully obtained shareholders&rsquo
approval for a share buyback mandate. The proposed mandate would authorise YZJFH
to purchase shares of up to 10% of its own issued ordinary share capital. The rationale
for the share buyback is to give management the flexibility to increase shareholder value
and improve the return on equity when appropriate. As YZJFH is trading at a huge
discount to book value, the start of an aggressive share buyback after 8 Jun 22 could be
a key catalyst for YZJFH. In addition, YZJFH&rsquo s CEO and its independent directors have
acquired a total of 1.7m shares at an average price of S$0.57/share in May 22, indicating
their confidence in the company.
&bull Attractive valuation with huge upside potential vs historical and peers&rsquo valuations.
With zero debt and about S$4.2b of cash and short-term investments, YZJFH is trading
at an attractive valuation of 0.5x 2021 P/B. Strong operating cash flows from its debt
investments business would support YZJFH&rsquo s proposed dividend policy of at least 40%
of net profit after tax, implying a 2022F dividend yield of above 6% (assuming 40%
dividend payout from the lowest net profit achieved in the last three years of S$321m).
Based on the historical P/B band of 0.5-1.2x of YZJFH pre-split, this implies a valuation
of S$0.50-1.29. On the other hand, YZJFH&rsquo s 0.5x 2021 P/B is at a deep discount
compared with the peers&rsquo valuation of 0.5-2.1x 2021 P/B (excluding outliers).
KEY FINANCIALS
Year to 31 Dec (S$m) 2019 2020 2021
Net turnover 457.2 495.2 384.8
EBITDA 403.8 360.2 372.8
Operating profit 403.8 359.7 371.9
Net profit (rep./act.) 344.6 321.1 327.2
Net profit (adj.) 344.6 321.1 327.2
EPS 8.7 8.1 8.3
PE (x) 5.4 5.8 5.7
P/B (x) 0.5 0.4 0.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.0 3.4 3.3
Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net margin (%) 75.4 64.8 85.0
Net debt/(cash) to equity (%) (4.4) (0.6) (0.4)
Interest cover (x) n.a. n.a. n.a.
ROE (%) 9.8 7.8 7.3
Source: YZJFH, Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hi
Undervalued Gem Carved Out With Strong Catalyst From Share Buyback
YZJFH is trading at an attractive level and valuation, at around 25% below its first day
IPO opening price and about 50% discount to its book value of S$1.08. Having S$4.2b
of debt investments, YZJFH had a solid earnings track record of S$321m-345m in 2019-
21, implying a PE ratio of about 6x and dividend yield of above 6%. Based on YZJFH&rsquo s
historical mean P/B of 0.84x pre-split, this implies an intrinsic value of S$0.91. YZJFH&rsquo s
P/B is trading at a large discount vs peers. Catalyst: Share buyback.
&bull Solid track record of 9-15% pre-tax ROA since 2011. Yangzijiang Financial Holding&rsquo s
(YZJFH) primary business consists of its debt investment business which invests excess
cash into short-term loans and fixed interest debt instruments, generating recurring
income. From 2011-21, YZJFH&rsquo s investment business has generated an impressive
return track record of 9-15% pre-tax ROA. After the restructuring, YZJFH has plans to
recycle its investment principal from matured loans into its investments management
business. Around 95% of YZJFH&rsquo s S$3.9b in debt investments is expected to mature by
end-22. YZJFH has completed the acquisition of a CMS-licensed fund named GEM
Asset Management (GEM) in Singapore, which has provided investment management
and advisory services for US$2.4b of assets since establishment. Also, YZJFH intends
to set up and provide fund/wealth management services to third-party investors.
&bull Strong sign of confidence from share buyback and insider purchases. YZJFH held
an extraordinary general meeting on 8 Jun 22 and successfully obtained shareholders&rsquo
approval for a share buyback mandate. The proposed mandate would authorise YZJFH
to purchase shares of up to 10% of its own issued ordinary share capital. The rationale
for the share buyback is to give management the flexibility to increase shareholder value
and improve the return on equity when appropriate. As YZJFH is trading at a huge
discount to book value, the start of an aggressive share buyback after 8 Jun 22 could be
a key catalyst for YZJFH. In addition, YZJFH&rsquo s CEO and its independent directors have
acquired a total of 1.7m shares at an average price of S$0.57/share in May 22, indicating
their confidence in the company.
&bull Attractive valuation with huge upside potential vs historical and peers&rsquo valuations.
With zero debt and about S$4.2b of cash and short-term investments, YZJFH is trading
at an attractive valuation of 0.5x 2021 P/B. Strong operating cash flows from its debt
investments business would support YZJFH&rsquo s proposed dividend policy of at least 40%
of net profit after tax, implying a 2022F dividend yield of above 6% (assuming 40%
dividend payout from the lowest net profit achieved in the last three years of S$321m).
Based on the historical P/B band of 0.5-1.2x of YZJFH pre-split, this implies a valuation
of S$0.50-1.29. On the other hand, YZJFH&rsquo s 0.5x 2021 P/B is at a deep discount
compared with the peers&rsquo valuation of 0.5-2.1x 2021 P/B (excluding outliers).
KEY FINANCIALS
Year to 31 Dec (S$m) 2019 2020 2021
Net turnover 457.2 495.2 384.8
EBITDA 403.8 360.2 372.8
Operating profit 403.8 359.7 371.9
Net profit (rep./act.) 344.6 321.1 327.2
Net profit (adj.) 344.6 321.1 327.2
EPS 8.7 8.1 8.3
PE (x) 5.4 5.8 5.7
P/B (x) 0.5 0.4 0.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.0 3.4 3.3
Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net margin (%) 75.4 64.8 85.0
Net debt/(cash) to equity (%) (4.4) (0.6) (0.4)
Interest cover (x) n.a. n.a. n.a.
ROE (%) 9.8 7.8 7.3
Source: YZJFH, Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hi
if they do bb today. more likely to be towards end of day then begin.
day traders difficult to benefits.
day traders difficult to benefits.
Just watch out for their first share buy back.
Just buy on pull back. They will be looking to buy also
Just buy on pull back. They will be looking to buy also
Sembcorp looks more promising
shift over
shift over
petson ( Date: 09-Jun-2022 09:13) Posted:
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want to make money from the maaters..not so easy leh...yellow belt fight with black belt
Bid Bid Vol(K) Ask Ask Vol(K)
0.515 2,779.9 0.520 1,687.3
0.510 6,639.4 0.525 5,882.6
0.505 5,467.9 0.530 12,715.4
0.500 5,815.7 0.535 13,275.8
0.495 5,760.7 0.540 14,222
0.490 3,924.7 0.545 11,678.8
0.485 2,776.3 0.550 8,309.7
Trade with caution no contra buy no short and DYODD
0.515 2,779.9 0.520 1,687.3
0.510 6,639.4 0.525 5,882.6
0.505 5,467.9 0.530 12,715.4
0.500 5,815.7 0.535 13,275.8
0.495 5,760.7 0.540 14,222
0.490 3,924.7 0.545 11,678.8
0.485 2,776.3 0.550 8,309.7
Trade with caution no contra buy no short and DYODD
Similar to post spin off patterns....
SAVIORFOREVER ( Date: 09-Jun-2022 08:45) Posted:
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Bid Bid Vol(K) Ask Ask Vol(K)
0.525 4,035.6 0.525 2,165.6
0.520 2,885.7 0.530 10,794.3
0.515 4,547.1 0.535 11,104.1
0.510 5,393 0.540 12,343.6
0.505 5,233.7 0.545 11,495.4
0.500 5,562.5 0.550 8,265.7
Trade with awareness and DYODD
0.525 4,035.6 0.525 2,165.6
0.520 2,885.7 0.530 10,794.3
0.515 4,547.1 0.535 11,104.1
0.510 5,393 0.540 12,343.6
0.505 5,233.7 0.545 11,495.4
0.500 5,562.5 0.550 8,265.7
Trade with awareness and DYODD
When you expect it to happen, it won?t happen. Proven many times. May take a while for price to rise.
mrwise ( Date: 09-Jun-2022 07:19) Posted:
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yes..now we can buy safely?? knowing ..SBB is our insurance & safety net. if got fire sale, quite sure they will SBB...safety.. dydd
Ho Say already, today can share buyback by Company....share prices should shoot up!!!!
SAVIORFOREVER ( Date: 09-Jun-2022 07:17) Posted:
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So many sellers. Many fake queues? Today can see 55?Management need big steps?
Bid Bid Vol(K) Ask Ask Vol(K)
0.520 1,166.1 0.525 793
0.515 4,221.3 0.530 7,637.8
0.510 5,185 0.535 6,610.7
0.505 5,039.7 0.540 8,100.1
0.500 5,181.2 0.545 9,324.1
0.495 5,567.8 0.550 6,551.6
0.490 3,633 0.555 6,748.5
0.485 2,951.1 0.560 2,076.3
0.480 858.2 0.565 4,812.7
0.475 673.2 0.570 2,328.3
0.470 745.8 0.575 5,746.5
0.465 1,421.6 0.580 2,145.1
0.460 837.2 0.585 2,803.6
0.455 928.2 0.590 3,007
0.450 324 0.595 2,766.7
0.445 80.3 0.600 3,432.8
Trade with ? and DYODD
Bid Bid Vol(K) Ask Ask Vol(K)
0.520 1,166.1 0.525 793
0.515 4,221.3 0.530 7,637.8
0.510 5,185 0.535 6,610.7
0.505 5,039.7 0.540 8,100.1
0.500 5,181.2 0.545 9,324.1
0.495 5,567.8 0.550 6,551.6
0.490 3,633 0.555 6,748.5
0.485 2,951.1 0.560 2,076.3
0.480 858.2 0.565 4,812.7
0.475 673.2 0.570 2,328.3
0.470 745.8 0.575 5,746.5
0.465 1,421.6 0.580 2,145.1
0.460 837.2 0.585 2,803.6
0.455 928.2 0.590 3,007
0.450 324 0.595 2,766.7
0.445 80.3 0.600 3,432.8
Trade with ? and DYODD
$200mil can wipe out 286mil shares or 7.2% of the float at an ave price 0.70 in an extreme scenario ... while paving the way for all the Longs to buy up and all the shorts scrambling to cover along the journey .... The power to wipe off 7% of the float is big deal. If you check the MAS short report, you will realise some of the highest shorted coy were all below 3% of the float (Ezra 2.62%, Bestworld 2.94% ). So taking into considerations the positive momentum of Longs buying and Shorts covering during the SBB process, the fund to lift YFH to 0.70 will definitely take much less than $200mil .... meaning SBB will continue to remain in force to exert positive momentum way beyond 0.70. $200mil is not a small Bazooka.
Ha ha ...you very optimistic ... $1.0 is still very much a long short. Hopefully can see a significant gap up tmrw to breach the mega 0.545 gap barrier. 0.63 (0.62 was Day 1 close) and 0.70 (0.695 was Day 1 open) are going to be the immediate very significant resistence imprints YFH must overcome before it could truly fly....
mrwise ( Date: 09-Jun-2022 00:16) Posted:
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First thing tomorrow for shortist is to buy back as much as possible on their shorted shares....
Longist to buy as much as possible!!
So plus Company huge buy back....it will be cheonging all the way to $1 !!!
Longist to buy as much as possible!!
So plus Company huge buy back....it will be cheonging all the way to $1 !!!
volvo125 ( Date: 08-Jun-2022 23:53) Posted:
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I was hoping to see $250mil .... $250mil will send a more chilling and credible minimum 0.63 (ave) shock wave to the Shorts at 100% impact (395mil shares) or a minimum 0.70 (ave) even at 90% impact (355mil shares). Regardless ... $200mil is still a very big solid bazooka to wipe out a whole forest of Shorts ...
SAVIORFOREVER ( Date: 08-Jun-2022 22:47) Posted:
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Don't forget the directors bought at what price.
Trade with awareness and DYODD
Trade with awareness and DYODD
SAVIORFOREVER ( Date: 08-Jun-2022 22:47) Posted:
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See tomorrow any big movements.
My gut feeling is up.
Trade with patience and DYODD
My gut feeling is up.
Trade with patience and DYODD
hokpin ( Date: 08-Jun-2022 22:35) Posted:
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So mgmt think 5 series is still over-valued?
SAVIORFOREVER ( Date: 08-Jun-2022 22:33) Posted:
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