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you see what I mean, uncle is uncle, need me to keep repeating. I wonder to myself, for someone that presumes to hear so many coffee shop talks, need a rookie to draw out every single detail. I sure hope when I grow older I don' t behave like one.
And can we take the cost (capital) and invest in something that is more accreditive and returns for the MCT investors, LIKE acquiring or merging with other more profitable REITs? LIKE acquiring building overseas that have more potential and better returns? LIKE how Suntec REITs started off as Singapore Retail Property but now owns Australia properties.
Adn to complete the spirit of repeating, " I do not want to pretend I know there is or there isn' t a better deal like some uncles tend to do. All I am saying is, as a unitholders, I would like to see the Management Company actually have at least accountability to show why this is better than something else. Instead of keep telling me this is it, this is the best deal, like some used car salesman." .
And can we take the cost (capital) and invest in something that is more accreditive and returns for the MCT investors, LIKE acquiring or merging with other more profitable REITs? LIKE acquiring building overseas that have more potential and better returns? LIKE how Suntec REITs started off as Singapore Retail Property but now owns Australia properties.
Adn to complete the spirit of repeating, " I do not want to pretend I know there is or there isn' t a better deal like some uncles tend to do. All I am saying is, as a unitholders, I would like to see the Management Company actually have at least accountability to show why this is better than something else. Instead of keep telling me this is it, this is the best deal, like some used car salesman." .
Lobster ( Date: 05-Jan-2022 13:45) Posted:
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Sure gain??
DOW and STI are peaking right now? Interest rate hike starts in March... what if market crashes?
MCT went down to $1.50 in March 2020 and $1.72 in Oct 2020. When market crashes / turns into bear when interest rate starts hiking + this bad news of a merger, there is every possibility of testing $1.72 again ?? No??
Got such thing as sure gain one meh? I would believe when u buy low like in March 2020, then maybe 99% sure gain , but buying now when the market is at it' s peak ??>
DOW and STI are peaking right now? Interest rate hike starts in March... what if market crashes?
MCT went down to $1.50 in March 2020 and $1.72 in Oct 2020. When market crashes / turns into bear when interest rate starts hiking + this bad news of a merger, there is every possibility of testing $1.72 again ?? No??
Got such thing as sure gain one meh? I would believe when u buy low like in March 2020, then maybe 99% sure gain , but buying now when the market is at it' s peak ??>
Lobster ( Date: 05-Jan-2022 14:11) Posted:
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Ok, my last post for the day.....
Btw, the stock has recovered magnificently to be hitting $1.85... it would have been much higher if the general REITS market sentiments is much better today. I understand after insiders explained to the uncles, they believe them better, and I think the insiders will have the black market support. But as I said, it' s a long long way to go before the dusts settle, and the coffee shops reckon the prices will settle at around $1.15 for MNACT and $1.95 for MCT, and ding dong from there until the engagement and marriage is near, and may rally from there.
One uncle told me, he has put $181,000 into MCT and expect to reap about $9,000 in dividends in 6 to 7 months, not forgetting a sure gain in price appreciation. Which bank FD gives you that? If he puts in DBS, he would get probably a couple of hundreds in 12 months!
Btw, the stock has recovered magnificently to be hitting $1.85... it would have been much higher if the general REITS market sentiments is much better today. I understand after insiders explained to the uncles, they believe them better, and I think the insiders will have the black market support. But as I said, it' s a long long way to go before the dusts settle, and the coffee shops reckon the prices will settle at around $1.15 for MNACT and $1.95 for MCT, and ding dong from there until the engagement and marriage is near, and may rally from there.
One uncle told me, he has put $181,000 into MCT and expect to reap about $9,000 in dividends in 6 to 7 months, not forgetting a sure gain in price appreciation. Which bank FD gives you that? If he puts in DBS, he would get probably a couple of hundreds in 12 months!
Wow, this is one very difficult uncle.... you keep saying, and I hear you loud and clear... " And can we take the cost (capital) and invest in something that is more accreditve and returns for the MCT investors? " ..
like what? This is a REITS wor, it breathes properties, dpus from these assets, and properties are its bloodlline. What more accretive business can it go into?
okay, coffee shop uncles asked me to try another angle. Let' s say you as very rich single saw a very pretty girl, and you like her. You woo her and propose to her. Of course you need to give her a very good reason for her and her family to accept you. You cannot just gain a wife and let her family loses a daughter. You got to make it a win win situation. Maybe you try this.. " uncle, I want to marry your daughter, I will take care of her and give her a good life.... I m going to buy you a nice house for taking care of her and bringing up such a wonderful daughter. I promise you, we will bear you plentiful grandchildren who will grow up to be equally successful as me and provide you with even a better and cheerful life...." Maybe you want to insert the words you prefer such as " capital" , " returns" " more accretive" , " accountability" where appropriate.... because I don' t know what you want or can give in return.....
like what? This is a REITS wor, it breathes properties, dpus from these assets, and properties are its bloodlline. What more accretive business can it go into?
okay, coffee shop uncles asked me to try another angle. Let' s say you as very rich single saw a very pretty girl, and you like her. You woo her and propose to her. Of course you need to give her a very good reason for her and her family to accept you. You cannot just gain a wife and let her family loses a daughter. You got to make it a win win situation. Maybe you try this.. " uncle, I want to marry your daughter, I will take care of her and give her a good life.... I m going to buy you a nice house for taking care of her and bringing up such a wonderful daughter. I promise you, we will bear you plentiful grandchildren who will grow up to be equally successful as me and provide you with even a better and cheerful life...." Maybe you want to insert the words you prefer such as " capital" , " returns" " more accretive" , " accountability" where appropriate.... because I don' t know what you want or can give in return.....
JustOnce ( Date: 05-Jan-2022 13:01) Posted:
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HK Festival Walk Land Use Right expiry in 2047
After merger MCT gearing ratio increase from 33.7% to 39.2%, MNAC gearing ratio reduce from 42.2% to 39.2%
MCT NAV Compound Annual Growth Rate 6.3%, MNAC NAV Compound Annual Growth Rate 3.2%
After merger MCT gearing ratio increase from 33.7% to 39.2%, MNAC gearing ratio reduce from 42.2% to 39.2%
MCT NAV Compound Annual Growth Rate 6.3%, MNAC NAV Compound Annual Growth Rate 3.2%
As I normally do when speaking to " uncle" that likes to hold my hands, as their hearing might not be that good anymore so I will tend to repeat in another manner.
Whilst its not an outright acquisition, but is it free? Is it costing MCT and its unitholders nothing? And can we take the cost (capital) and invest in something that is more accreditve and returns for the MCT investors?
I would go out on a limp to guess that Investors that buy into MCT are not looking for aggressive capital appreciation but rather a stable and acceptable (to the individual investors) dividends. So all these talks about NAC will open up the Asia markets, etc, are just marketing spins to sell the idea. If investors wants to invest REITs outside of SG, they' s already plenty of options in SG and overseas REITs.
I do not want to pretend I know there is or there isn' t a better deal like some uncles tend to do. All I am saying is, as a unitholders, I would like to see the Management Company actually have at least accountability to show why this is better than something else. Instead of keep telling me this is it, this is the best deal, like some used car salesman.
Whilst its not an outright acquisition, but is it free? Is it costing MCT and its unitholders nothing? And can we take the cost (capital) and invest in something that is more accreditve and returns for the MCT investors?
I would go out on a limp to guess that Investors that buy into MCT are not looking for aggressive capital appreciation but rather a stable and acceptable (to the individual investors) dividends. So all these talks about NAC will open up the Asia markets, etc, are just marketing spins to sell the idea. If investors wants to invest REITs outside of SG, they' s already plenty of options in SG and overseas REITs.
I do not want to pretend I know there is or there isn' t a better deal like some uncles tend to do. All I am saying is, as a unitholders, I would like to see the Management Company actually have at least accountability to show why this is better than something else. Instead of keep telling me this is it, this is the best deal, like some used car salesman.
Lobster ( Date: 05-Jan-2022 12:07) Posted:
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Talking about dividends yields, one analyst has named MCT ( by default after merger MPACT), as one of the top 7 Dividends Kings for 2022,. The others are DBS, UOB, OCBC, Parkway REIT, CICT. In fact MCT (going to aka MPACT) is placed as number two behind DBS!
Lobster ( Date: 05-Jan-2022 12:33) Posted:
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Now before you get too overly excited or rampaging mad, which ever the case, do note that it will be some time before the proposed merger scheme is finalised and realised..something like July this year. Which means meanwhile you will be enjoying two rounds of fat dividends. (for MCT estimated annualised $0.09 , and MNACT estimated annualised $0.065)... Right now there' s a lot herd behavior and gong kias following blindly the blind, and thanks to these people, you will be getting very attractive yield at current price. Stupid to even think the insiders, including the mighty godfather will let this stock hang to dry.
Enjoy your durian desserts first while waiting for the real durians to drop ....
Enjoy your durian desserts first while waiting for the real durians to drop ....
Now just to expand on why the coffee shop,uncles think that while this is a good deal for MNACT, it is not a bad deal for MCT either...
= in the scheme proposal, offerer has valued MNACT at $1.19 and MCT at $2.00 (rounded up)
= considering MNACT current nav is about $1.25, it' s is therefore valuing MNACT 6% less of its nav
and considering that the post merger nav of MCT (aka MPACT later) would be around $1.88 (8.9% nav accretive of current value of $1.725... they said one wor), means it is valuing MCT at 6% more of its forward nav
= now, why should it be good for MNACT? because before scheme announcement, price was trading at a stagnant pathetic 0.8x (or 20% discount)... now it is trading higher.
= now if you look MNACT, preannouncement, it was trading at average 1.2x (or 20% premium), but that is based on current premerger nav. Post merger nav, as we pointed out would be 8.9% higher, so after post merger, the price will be much much higher.
= all these numbers co-incidental? I think they are trying to be fair anfpd just... but we can never satisfy everyone.
= in the scheme proposal, offerer has valued MNACT at $1.19 and MCT at $2.00 (rounded up)
= considering MNACT current nav is about $1.25, it' s is therefore valuing MNACT 6% less of its nav
and considering that the post merger nav of MCT (aka MPACT later) would be around $1.88 (8.9% nav accretive of current value of $1.725... they said one wor), means it is valuing MCT at 6% more of its forward nav
= now, why should it be good for MNACT? because before scheme announcement, price was trading at a stagnant pathetic 0.8x (or 20% discount)... now it is trading higher.
= now if you look MNACT, preannouncement, it was trading at average 1.2x (or 20% premium), but that is based on current premerger nav. Post merger nav, as we pointed out would be 8.9% higher, so after post merger, the price will be much much higher.
= all these numbers co-incidental? I think they are trying to be fair anfpd just... but we can never satisfy everyone.
Lobster ( Date: 05-Jan-2022 11:33) Posted:
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The coffee shops have spoken.... when it proclaimed that $1.81 is as far as it should go,means that should be so. Good luck to that guy waiting neck long long at. $1.66.
Now $1.85.....
Now $1.85.....
The coffee shops uncles already explained, until their saliva drop why this is the way to go for MCT to expand and to grow...so let me hold your hands and answer slowly, the more important points to your concern....
= this is not a buy over of MNACT, but a merge, and by merging it will expand at one go, its market cap, its asset portfolio, its geographical business area, expand its nav and grow its dpu, at the same time reducing the management costs. Ridiculous to have two management companies who are wholly owned subsidiaries of the same sponsor managing them!
= by merging, it is able to expand to the size that will make it among the top ten REITS in the Asia Pacific region,,and as we already all know, in REITS industry, size does matter!
= if it stays local, how would it expand (to the size it is going to be when merged with MNACT)? is there any tokkong asset it can acquire at good price that will be dpu and nav accretive?
= let' s look, at some that maybe available... 1) Suntec, it' s managed by ARA, difficult because standalone, its doing well and even if it sell, it will not go to rival Mapletree 2) Wisma, owned partly by Isetan, they are trying to get a better deal than StarGobal, but difficult because the buyer would want the whole property not partial 3) iReit, one time Mapletree eyeing of it, but is now partly owned by CDL.... they may be trouble but they trying to create its own stable of REITs 4) Paragon, even if Cuscaden is successful, they will be fighting among themselves who gets it, because OBS openly said he wants it. 5) Thomson Plaza, super expensive now, even if it' s for sale, have to fight a bloody war with Capitaland to get...
= so you see, for every tokkong property here, there is always an issue... so how are you able to acquire it at a price that' s is dpu and nav accretive...? Mapletree NACT and MCT do not have a surrogate mother like the Capitaland REITs, who' s CLA can develop and build new properties and let pass on to any of its member in its REITs family... so where, where, can you acquire good property?
Expand overseas la, you may suggest.... ahhh, that' s where MNACT come !
= so I want to conclude by reminding all those newbies, that if MCT is unable to acquire new properties here at ATTRACTIVE price, it can never grow, and your dpu and share prices will remain stagnant for life because there is so much you can do to your retrofitting, renovating, getting better tenants, and rental revisions etc...
vested in both MNACT and MCT. Pdyohwadfmb
= this is not a buy over of MNACT, but a merge, and by merging it will expand at one go, its market cap, its asset portfolio, its geographical business area, expand its nav and grow its dpu, at the same time reducing the management costs. Ridiculous to have two management companies who are wholly owned subsidiaries of the same sponsor managing them!
= by merging, it is able to expand to the size that will make it among the top ten REITS in the Asia Pacific region,,and as we already all know, in REITS industry, size does matter!
= if it stays local, how would it expand (to the size it is going to be when merged with MNACT)? is there any tokkong asset it can acquire at good price that will be dpu and nav accretive?
= let' s look, at some that maybe available... 1) Suntec, it' s managed by ARA, difficult because standalone, its doing well and even if it sell, it will not go to rival Mapletree 2) Wisma, owned partly by Isetan, they are trying to get a better deal than StarGobal, but difficult because the buyer would want the whole property not partial 3) iReit, one time Mapletree eyeing of it, but is now partly owned by CDL.... they may be trouble but they trying to create its own stable of REITs 4) Paragon, even if Cuscaden is successful, they will be fighting among themselves who gets it, because OBS openly said he wants it. 5) Thomson Plaza, super expensive now, even if it' s for sale, have to fight a bloody war with Capitaland to get...
= so you see, for every tokkong property here, there is always an issue... so how are you able to acquire it at a price that' s is dpu and nav accretive...? Mapletree NACT and MCT do not have a surrogate mother like the Capitaland REITs, who' s CLA can develop and build new properties and let pass on to any of its member in its REITs family... so where, where, can you acquire good property?
Expand overseas la, you may suggest.... ahhh, that' s where MNACT come !
= so I want to conclude by reminding all those newbies, that if MCT is unable to acquire new properties here at ATTRACTIVE price, it can never grow, and your dpu and share prices will remain stagnant for life because there is so much you can do to your retrofitting, renovating, getting better tenants, and rental revisions etc...
vested in both MNACT and MCT. Pdyohwadfmb
JustOnce ( Date: 05-Jan-2022 08:12) Posted:
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The answer to your question is reflected in the changes share price.
Most MNAC retail investors think MNAC is better since they have been receiving better DPU (againt Bank/CPF interest and MCT DPU).
Institutional share investors think MCT is better since they have been paying better yeild compare to US treasury bonds.
To me " liquidity of the assets" and the " rate of capital investment return" is the key consideration factors. We have seem so many Singapore companies wrote off their China investment and situation is getting worse.
Most MNAC retail investors think MNAC is better since they have been receiving better DPU (againt Bank/CPF interest and MCT DPU).
Institutional share investors think MCT is better since they have been paying better yeild compare to US treasury bonds.
To me " liquidity of the assets" and the " rate of capital investment return" is the key consideration factors. We have seem so many Singapore companies wrote off their China investment and situation is getting worse.
JustOnce ( Date: 05-Jan-2022 08:12) Posted:
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for a moment I thot Lobster is promoting vaccines shots, so many shots in the post.
To me, the question to answer is, is NAC the only thing MCT can buy using the capital it will spend? Is there no other better bargain or acquisition out there that is better than NAC? Or maybe there isn' t a choice at all? they are just being " directed" to merge. As MCT unitholder, I would like to know that the Management have done proper DD. The presentation only says what the combined entity will be like, but never account what options did MCT considered and why this option of acquiring NAC is the way to go.
To me, the question to answer is, is NAC the only thing MCT can buy using the capital it will spend? Is there no other better bargain or acquisition out there that is better than NAC? Or maybe there isn' t a choice at all? they are just being " directed" to merge. As MCT unitholder, I would like to know that the Management have done proper DD. The presentation only says what the combined entity will be like, but never account what options did MCT considered and why this option of acquiring NAC is the way to go.
Lobster ( Date: 05-Jan-2022 01:22) Posted:
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In one shot all got shot down by Temasek also shot our retail investors.
A lot of noises have been coming out claiming that MNACT got the short end of the stick, others saying MCT got a very bad deal.... but none is able to substantiate why. Actually the perception of whether a deal is good or bad is how the black market wants to make it to be.... If you think properly, while MNACT seems to be getting a good deal, MCT is getting not a bad deal either.....because I am no good in articulating in analysis technical terms, let me try to explain in coffee shop lingo...
For MNACT, the Asia Pacific is its oyster... If it wants to expand its portfolio, it can go on to source and acquire good properties in this vast region, but it does not have a presence in the less volatile environment and stable market here.
By merging with MCT, in one shot, it is able to include into its assets portfolio, not only good local properties , but the crown jewel of retail malls, the Vivo City, and the mother of Business Parks, the MBC. Given the political environment in Hong Kong it will in one shot, reduce the volatility in income.
Because it has been borrowing and borrowing to buy, in one shot it is able to bring its gearing ratio down, in the merged entity, reducing its net debt to assets ratio
In one shot it becomes part of one largest REITs in the Asia Pacific, with expanded market cap, expanded assets portfolios, giving it greater leverage in any negotiations.
In one shot it is able to get out of hang of constantly trading at a discount to nav when it will be pegged to a bluer chip REIT which has been trading at a premium to nav. Because the offer price is pegged to close to MNACT&rsquo s nav of $1.25, it means the stock is valued higher than its average traded price of the past year.
For MCT, it is largely localised, for it to expand it needs to acquire a good class property at a good price that is dpu and nav accretive. The problem is most of the tokkong properties are already in the hands of the other mega REITs. For the few independent properties, if MCT were to acquire them, they would have to pay hefty premium prices for it, which would not be helpful to its dpu growth. So how to expand?
So, by merging with MNACT, in one shot, it has access to a vast overseas market to source and acquire new properties. In one shot, it increases its geographical spread.
In one shot, it will,have a diversity of assets classes..... it is able to add to its asset portfolio, another 13 different type of properties.... now imagine if you were to acquire these 13 properties, you would have to go through don&rsquo t know how many rounds of rights issues.
In one shot, it is able to grow its dpus... because MNACT has been paying very attractive absolute dpus, MCT claims it would increase it by 7.9%... without the merger, you would have to look for a super tokkong property to grow your dpu by this much.
As with MNACT, in one shot, the merger with propel MCT to among the top REITs in the Asia Pacific region. With greater economy of scale, in one shot, it is able to reduce its business costs, and management fees. It will also have more flexibility to acquire a larger portfolio of assets.
In one shot, it is able to increase its nav, by 8.9%.... considering that it&rsquo s current nav is about $1.725, means its post merger nav would be about $1.88.... and considering that blue chip REITS normally traded at 1.5x, the post merger MCT price has the potential to go up to $2.82... okay, if you find this hard to believe then we look at MCT pre pandemic price which hover around $2.30 to $2.40, trading at around 1.3x to 1.4x! Means what? Means that chow chow, MCT, even at 1.3x may be able to give you at least $2.45.
Now I don&rsquo t want koyok sell too much, like as if I am begging you to buy (good wine doesn&rsquo t need testing). I just want you to look at today&rsquo s price. At $1.81, it is already well below the theoretical post merger NAV of $1.88. So you can decide how much you will or can earn. Don&rsquo t forget, from 2016, when it started its meteoric rise to over $2.00, many funds, institutions, foreign investors, SSHs, had been accumulating at between $2.20 to $2.40 prices, and in 2017, it even had a rights issue at $2.24 per unit. You think these people will dump their shares now? So how much lower you want it to be? Result is coming, attractive dpus are going to be declared, it would be difficult for the prices to go to the cleaners, which some are hoping for because fundamentally there&rsquo s is nothing wrong with the stock. Both will have in it one of the best sponsors in the land and behind it the financial might in TH. If this doesn&rsquo t convince you, I have to caution you, that black market has a very strong interest in this.
Vested in both MNACT and MCT. Pdyohwadfmb
27 Dec 2021 Institutional investors desposed MNACT. Short sell started 24 Dec 2021
26 Nov 2021 Institutional investors started desposed MCT. Shortsell started 23 Dec 2021
28 Dec 2021 Mapletree requested for trading halt 3 days before Merger announcement.
26 Nov 2021 Institutional investors started desposed MCT. Shortsell started 23 Dec 2021
28 Dec 2021 Mapletree requested for trading halt 3 days before Merger announcement.
Not bad right my guess, was trading at $1.84-$1.85 when I posted this hahaha
PhillipTan ( Date: 04-Jan-2022 13:20) Posted:
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MAPLETREE NAV before run out is only ????. MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL will be dragged down again to mapletree NAv realistic market price
A lot of whisper about funds shifting to CICT. Saw this being shared:
" My hypothesis: funds are switching to CICT (capitaland)
As CICT has Similar strength, with 2 avenues for growth:
(1) retail (from tourism)
+
(2) Office
While trading at a yield of 5.5 to 6 % (Take note this Yield is suppressed and can only go up after covid).
In contrast, MCT was trading at a permium with little room for growth and would need to drop towards $1.8 to have a similar yield as CICT.
" My hypothesis: funds are switching to CICT (capitaland)
As CICT has Similar strength, with 2 avenues for growth:
(1) retail (from tourism)
+
(2) Office
While trading at a yield of 5.5 to 6 % (Take note this Yield is suppressed and can only go up after covid).
In contrast, MCT was trading at a permium with little room for growth and would need to drop towards $1.8 to have a similar yield as CICT.
This is what I posted in the other thread ...
Let me put it this way, if you own BOTH MNACT and MCT, you may never lose, and you have many options to play around... like the example I gave today.
if you own only one of the two REITs, you might consider buying the other one you do not own, to hedeg against whatever benefits the other might give you and whatever " losses" you think you might be expecting on your current stock....
Let me put it this way, if you own BOTH MNACT and MCT, you may never lose, and you have many options to play around... like the example I gave today.
if you own only one of the two REITs, you might consider buying the other one you do not own, to hedeg against whatever benefits the other might give you and whatever " losses" you think you might be expecting on your current stock....