Delfi
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Buoyant outlook
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Bro, it' s dtd Jun 15... look at the top right hand side.
My broker also fwded this to me too. But i' m not as
proficient as Bro Ozone who had done a good job
by extracting and pasting here.
Elf2000 ( Date: 15-Jun-2023 11:56) Posted:
May I know when is this analyst report dated? I can't find it.
ozone2002 ( Date: 15-Jun-2023 11:31) Posted:
Technicals oversold and looking gd for an entry again
must see what CIMB plans to do with the stoc |
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think later or by next week can chiong back to the previous 1.4 range
May I know when is this analyst report dated? I can't find it.
ozone2002 ( Date: 15-Jun-2023 11:31) Posted:
Technicals oversold and looking gd for an entry again
must see what CIMB plans to do with the stock
Elf2000 ( Date: 15-Jun-2023 11:27) Posted:
| You must be bought back and waiting to sell again🤪 |
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Technicals oversold and looking gd for an entry again
must see what CIMB plans to do with the stock
Elf2000 ( Date: 15-Jun-2023 11:27) Posted:
You must be bought back and waiting to sell again🤪
ozone2002 ( Date: 15-Jun-2023 09:57) Posted:
analyst report for your reference
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15 June 2023
Singapore
Company Note |
| Delfi Ltd | PDF |
| 1H23F a litmus test for sustainable growth |
DELFI SP / DELF.SI | ADD - Maintained | SGD1.26tp:SGD1.650
Mkt.Cap:US$574.60m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$0.89m | Free Float:47.40%
Food & Beverages
Author(s): TAY Wee Kuang (65) 62108604, Izabella TAN
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■ We think Delfi will benefit from the strong retail sales index for Indonesia&rsquo s food, beverage and tobacco industry, which has risen yoy for 26 months.
■ While average price of its key raw materials have risen 4.5-10.7% YTD, we think Delfi&rsquo s premiumisation efforts will support its GP margins.
■ Findings from our channel checks suggest that Indonesia&rsquo s snacking category is likely to see revenue growth in 2023F, driven by volume.
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Demand supported by a strong retail sales index
Indonesia&rsquo s retail sales index for the foods, beverages and tobaccos industry rose 3.2% yoy in May 2023 to 329.7 pts (Fig 1), its 26th consecutive month of yoy growth (since Apr 2021).The positive industry trend was also reflected in Delfi&rsquo s return to revenue growth in 2Q21 (Fig 2). Our economics team, which recently raised our 2023F private consumption growth forecast for Indonesia from 4.3% to 7.2%, expects that to anchor the 4.8% real GDP growth we estimate (unchanged) for the nation for the year. We think the healthier economy will continue to drive revenue growth for Delfi, especially given its strong brand presence in Indonesia, with a diversified portfolio across various price points and trade channels.
Prices of key raw material prices have been on the rise&hellip
The average price for Delfi&rsquo s key ingredients cocoa and sugar, which we estimate account for c.40-45% of its cost of sales combined, have risen 10.7% and 4.5% YTD (Figs 3 and 4), with sugar futures reaching an 11-year high of 26.99 US cts/lb at end-Apr. Although, sugar prices have since tapered to c.25 US cts/lb, the likelihood of El-Nino effect in Asia could reduce sugar and cocoa harvests in 2H23F. India&rsquo s recently-announced cap on sugar exports is also likely to keep global sugar prices near record high, in our view.
&hellip but premiumisation and hedging efforts to offset cost pressures
Apart from a forward hedge of up to 18 months that Delfi maintains across various key ingredients such as cocoa and sugar, we think its premiumisation efforts have also improved its sales mix as observed in its resilient GP margins since FY19 (Fig 5). Furthermore, Delfi&rsquo s shift towards healthier product offerings with higher cocoa content and substitute ingredients like nuts and berries should reduce its reliance on sugar, in our view.
Reiterate Add with unchanged TP of S$1.65
Delfi&rsquo s share price has declined c.15% since its 1Q23 trading update on 16 May, despite a strong beat to our and Bloomberg consensus revenue forecasts, likely due to the lack of visibility on its cost management ahead. It re-rated from 7x to 12x forward P/E over the last 6 months, but still trades at 0.5x s.d. below its 5-year mean of 14.4x. Our TP remains pegged at 15x FY24F PE, which we think is justified as we expect FY23F/FY24F EPS growth of 8.4%/5.0% driven by robust domestic consumption, and modest yields above 4.0-4.5%. Key re-rating catalysts: clarity on its cost pressures and stronger-than-expected revenue growth. Downside risks: cost escalation from rising raw material prices, and consumer down-trading from its premium products to its value products as a result of an economic downturn in Indonesia.
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You must be bought back and waiting to sell again🤪
ozone2002 ( Date: 15-Jun-2023 09:57) Posted:
analyst report for your reference
| |
|
|
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15 June 2023
Singapore
Company Note |
| Delfi Ltd | PDF |
| 1H23F a litmus test for sustainable growth |
DELFI SP / DELF.SI | ADD - Maintained | SGD1.26tp:SGD1.650
Mkt.Cap:US$574.60m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$0.89m | Free Float:47.40%
Food & Beverages
Author(s): TAY Wee Kuang (65) 62108604, Izabella TAN
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|
■ We think Delfi will benefit from the strong retail sales index for Indonesia&rsquo s food, beverage and tobacco industry, which has risen yoy for 26 months.
■ While average price of its key raw materials have risen 4.5-10.7% YTD, we think Delfi&rsquo s premiumisation efforts will support its GP margins.
■ Findings from our channel checks suggest that Indonesia&rsquo s snacking category is likely to see revenue growth in 2023F, driven by volume.
|
|
Demand supported by a strong retail sales index
Indonesia&rsquo s retail sales index for the foods, beverages and tobaccos industry rose 3.2% yoy in May 2023 to 329.7 pts (Fig 1), its 26th consecutive month of yoy growth (since Apr 2021).The positive industry trend was also reflected in Delfi&rsquo s return to revenue growth in 2Q21 (Fig 2). Our economics team, which recently raised our 2023F private consumption growth forecast for Indonesia from 4.3% to 7.2%, expects that to anchor the 4.8% real GDP growth we estimate (unchanged) for the nation for the year. We think the healthier economy will continue to drive revenue growth for Delfi, especially given its strong brand presence in Indonesia, with a diversified portfolio across various price points and trade channels.
Prices of key raw material prices have been on the rise&hellip
The average price for Delfi&rsquo s key ingredients cocoa and sugar, which we estimate account for c.40-45% of its cost of sales combined, have risen 10.7% and 4.5% YTD (Figs 3 and 4), with sugar futures reaching an 11-year high of 26.99 US cts/lb at end-Apr. Although, sugar prices have since tapered to c.25 US cts/lb, the likelihood of El-Nino effect in Asia could reduce sugar and cocoa harvests in 2H23F. India&rsquo s recently-announced cap on sugar exports is also likely to keep global sugar prices near record high, in our view.
&hellip but premiumisation and hedging efforts to offset cost pressures
Apart from a forward hedge of up to 18 months that Delfi maintains across various key ingredients such as cocoa and sugar, we think its premiumisation efforts have also improved its sales mix as observed in its resilient GP margins since FY19 (Fig 5). Furthermore, Delfi&rsquo s shift towards healthier product offerings with higher cocoa content and substitute ingredients like nuts and berries should reduce its reliance on sugar, in our view.
Reiterate Add with unchanged TP of S$1.65
Delfi&rsquo s share price has declined c.15% since its 1Q23 trading update on 16 May, despite a strong beat to our and Bloomberg consensus revenue forecasts, likely due to the lack of visibility on its cost management ahead. It re-rated from 7x to 12x forward P/E over the last 6 months, but still trades at 0.5x s.d. below its 5-year mean of 14.4x. Our TP remains pegged at 15x FY24F PE, which we think is justified as we expect FY23F/FY24F EPS growth of 8.4%/5.0% driven by robust domestic consumption, and modest yields above 4.0-4.5%. Key re-rating catalysts: clarity on its cost pressures and stronger-than-expected revenue growth. Downside risks: cost escalation from rising raw material prices, and consumer down-trading from its premium products to its value products as a result of an economic downturn in Indonesia.
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So now share price is going up or down😏
ozone2002 ( Date: 15-Jun-2023 09:57) Posted:
analyst report for your reference
| |
|
|
|
15 June 2023
Singapore
Company Note |
| Delfi Ltd | PDF |
| 1H23F a litmus test for sustainable growth |
DELFI SP / DELF.SI | ADD - Maintained | SGD1.26tp:SGD1.650
Mkt.Cap:US$574.60m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$0.89m | Free Float:47.40%
Food & Beverages
Author(s): TAY Wee Kuang (65) 62108604, Izabella TAN
|
|
|
■ We think Delfi will benefit from the strong retail sales index for Indonesia&rsquo s food, beverage and tobacco industry, which has risen yoy for 26 months.
■ While average price of its key raw materials have risen 4.5-10.7% YTD, we think Delfi&rsquo s premiumisation efforts will support its GP margins.
■ Findings from our channel checks suggest that Indonesia&rsquo s snacking category is likely to see revenue growth in 2023F, driven by volume.
|
|
Demand supported by a strong retail sales index
Indonesia&rsquo s retail sales index for the foods, beverages and tobaccos industry rose 3.2% yoy in May 2023 to 329.7 pts (Fig 1), its 26th consecutive month of yoy growth (since Apr 2021).The positive industry trend was also reflected in Delfi&rsquo s return to revenue growth in 2Q21 (Fig 2). Our economics team, which recently raised our 2023F private consumption growth forecast for Indonesia from 4.3% to 7.2%, expects that to anchor the 4.8% real GDP growth we estimate (unchanged) for the nation for the year. We think the healthier economy will continue to drive revenue growth for Delfi, especially given its strong brand presence in Indonesia, with a diversified portfolio across various price points and trade channels.
Prices of key raw material prices have been on the rise&hellip
The average price for Delfi&rsquo s key ingredients cocoa and sugar, which we estimate account for c.40-45% of its cost of sales combined, have risen 10.7% and 4.5% YTD (Figs 3 and 4), with sugar futures reaching an 11-year high of 26.99 US cts/lb at end-Apr. Although, sugar prices have since tapered to c.25 US cts/lb, the likelihood of El-Nino effect in Asia could reduce sugar and cocoa harvests in 2H23F. India&rsquo s recently-announced cap on sugar exports is also likely to keep global sugar prices near record high, in our view.
&hellip but premiumisation and hedging efforts to offset cost pressures
Apart from a forward hedge of up to 18 months that Delfi maintains across various key ingredients such as cocoa and sugar, we think its premiumisation efforts have also improved its sales mix as observed in its resilient GP margins since FY19 (Fig 5). Furthermore, Delfi&rsquo s shift towards healthier product offerings with higher cocoa content and substitute ingredients like nuts and berries should reduce its reliance on sugar, in our view.
Reiterate Add with unchanged TP of S$1.65
Delfi&rsquo s share price has declined c.15% since its 1Q23 trading update on 16 May, despite a strong beat to our and Bloomberg consensus revenue forecasts, likely due to the lack of visibility on its cost management ahead. It re-rated from 7x to 12x forward P/E over the last 6 months, but still trades at 0.5x s.d. below its 5-year mean of 14.4x. Our TP remains pegged at 15x FY24F PE, which we think is justified as we expect FY23F/FY24F EPS growth of 8.4%/5.0% driven by robust domestic consumption, and modest yields above 4.0-4.5%. Key re-rating catalysts: clarity on its cost pressures and stronger-than-expected revenue growth. Downside risks: cost escalation from rising raw material prices, and consumer down-trading from its premium products to its value products as a result of an economic downturn in Indonesia.
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Tks for sharing.
Tell tale signs that Delfi maybe striking bk soon
PS: need to learn fm you how to cut and paste nicely the analyst rpt.
ozone2002 ( Date: 15-Jun-2023 09:57) Posted:
analyst report for your reference
| |
|
|
|
15 June 2023
Singapore
Company Note |
| Delfi Ltd | PDF |
| 1H23F a litmus test for sustainable growth |
DELFI SP / DELF.SI | ADD - Maintained | SGD1.26tp:SGD1.650
Mkt.Cap:US$574.60m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$0.89m | Free Float:47.40%
Food & Beverages
Author(s): TAY Wee Kuang (65) 62108604, Izabella TAN
|
|
|
■ We think Delfi will benefit from the strong retail sales index for Indonesia&rsquo s food, beverage and tobacco industry, which has risen yoy for 26 months.
■ While average price of its key raw materials have risen 4.5-10.7% YTD, we think Delfi&rsquo s premiumisation efforts will support its GP margins.
■ Findings from our channel checks suggest that Indonesia&rsquo s snacking category is likely to see revenue growth in 2023F, driven by volume.
|
|
Demand supported by a strong retail sales index
Indonesia&rsquo s retail sales index for the foods, beverages and tobaccos industry rose 3.2% yoy in May 2023 to 329.7 pts (Fig 1), its 26th consecutive month of yoy growth (since Apr 2021).The positive industry trend was also reflected in Delfi&rsquo s return to revenue growth in 2Q21 (Fig 2). Our economics team, which recently raised our 2023F private consumption growth forecast for Indonesia from 4.3% to 7.2%, expects that to anchor the 4.8% real GDP growth we estimate (unchanged) for the nation for the year. We think the healthier economy will continue to drive revenue growth for Delfi, especially given its strong brand presence in Indonesia, with a diversified portfolio across various price points and trade channels.
Prices of key raw material prices have been on the rise&hellip
The average price for Delfi&rsquo s key ingredients cocoa and sugar, which we estimate account for c.40-45% of its cost of sales combined, have risen 10.7% and 4.5% YTD (Figs 3 and 4), with sugar futures reaching an 11-year high of 26.99 US cts/lb at end-Apr. Although, sugar prices have since tapered to c.25 US cts/lb, the likelihood of El-Nino effect in Asia could reduce sugar and cocoa harvests in 2H23F. India&rsquo s recently-announced cap on sugar exports is also likely to keep global sugar prices near record high, in our view.
&hellip but premiumisation and hedging efforts to offset cost pressures
Apart from a forward hedge of up to 18 months that Delfi maintains across various key ingredients such as cocoa and sugar, we think its premiumisation efforts have also improved its sales mix as observed in its resilient GP margins since FY19 (Fig 5). Furthermore, Delfi&rsquo s shift towards healthier product offerings with higher cocoa content and substitute ingredients like nuts and berries should reduce its reliance on sugar, in our view.
Reiterate Add with unchanged TP of S$1.65
Delfi&rsquo s share price has declined c.15% since its 1Q23 trading update on 16 May, despite a strong beat to our and Bloomberg consensus revenue forecasts, likely due to the lack of visibility on its cost management ahead. It re-rated from 7x to 12x forward P/E over the last 6 months, but still trades at 0.5x s.d. below its 5-year mean of 14.4x. Our TP remains pegged at 15x FY24F PE, which we think is justified as we expect FY23F/FY24F EPS growth of 8.4%/5.0% driven by robust domestic consumption, and modest yields above 4.0-4.5%. Key re-rating catalysts: clarity on its cost pressures and stronger-than-expected revenue growth. Downside risks: cost escalation from rising raw material prices, and consumer down-trading from its premium products to its value products as a result of an economic downturn in Indonesia.
|
|
|
analyst report for your reference
| |
|
|
|
15 June 2023
Singapore
Company Note |
| Delfi Ltd | PDF |
| 1H23F a litmus test for sustainable growth |
DELFI SP / DELF.SI | ADD - Maintained | SGD1.26tp:SGD1.650
Mkt.Cap:US$574.60m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$0.89m | Free Float:47.40%
Food & Beverages
Author(s): TAY Wee Kuang (65) 62108604, Izabella TAN
|
|
|
■ We think Delfi will benefit from the strong retail sales index for Indonesia&rsquo s food, beverage and tobacco industry, which has risen yoy for 26 months.
■ While average price of its key raw materials have risen 4.5-10.7% YTD, we think Delfi&rsquo s premiumisation efforts will support its GP margins.
■ Findings from our channel checks suggest that Indonesia&rsquo s snacking category is likely to see revenue growth in 2023F, driven by volume.
|
|
Demand supported by a strong retail sales index
Indonesia&rsquo s retail sales index for the foods, beverages and tobaccos industry rose 3.2% yoy in May 2023 to 329.7 pts (Fig 1), its 26th consecutive month of yoy growth (since Apr 2021).The positive industry trend was also reflected in Delfi&rsquo s return to revenue growth in 2Q21 (Fig 2). Our economics team, which recently raised our 2023F private consumption growth forecast for Indonesia from 4.3% to 7.2%, expects that to anchor the 4.8% real GDP growth we estimate (unchanged) for the nation for the year. We think the healthier economy will continue to drive revenue growth for Delfi, especially given its strong brand presence in Indonesia, with a diversified portfolio across various price points and trade channels.
Prices of key raw material prices have been on the rise&hellip
The average price for Delfi&rsquo s key ingredients cocoa and sugar, which we estimate account for c.40-45% of its cost of sales combined, have risen 10.7% and 4.5% YTD (Figs 3 and 4), with sugar futures reaching an 11-year high of 26.99 US cts/lb at end-Apr. Although, sugar prices have since tapered to c.25 US cts/lb, the likelihood of El-Nino effect in Asia could reduce sugar and cocoa harvests in 2H23F. India&rsquo s recently-announced cap on sugar exports is also likely to keep global sugar prices near record high, in our view.
&hellip but premiumisation and hedging efforts to offset cost pressures
Apart from a forward hedge of up to 18 months that Delfi maintains across various key ingredients such as cocoa and sugar, we think its premiumisation efforts have also improved its sales mix as observed in its resilient GP margins since FY19 (Fig 5). Furthermore, Delfi&rsquo s shift towards healthier product offerings with higher cocoa content and substitute ingredients like nuts and berries should reduce its reliance on sugar, in our view.
Reiterate Add with unchanged TP of S$1.65
Delfi&rsquo s share price has declined c.15% since its 1Q23 trading update on 16 May, despite a strong beat to our and Bloomberg consensus revenue forecasts, likely due to the lack of visibility on its cost management ahead. It re-rated from 7x to 12x forward P/E over the last 6 months, but still trades at 0.5x s.d. below its 5-year mean of 14.4x. Our TP remains pegged at 15x FY24F PE, which we think is justified as we expect FY23F/FY24F EPS growth of 8.4%/5.0% driven by robust domestic consumption, and modest yields above 4.0-4.5%. Key re-rating catalysts: clarity on its cost pressures and stronger-than-expected revenue growth. Downside risks: cost escalation from rising raw material prices, and consumer down-trading from its premium products to its value products as a result of an economic downturn in Indonesia.
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May hv some short covering later
Lets see
Signs of resilience
Hope can see more upside ahead
Resumed it' s uptrend after weak holders were flushed out.
Tech sector had a good rally.....
It' s time for laggards which is fundamentally strong to do catch up
Nice bounce back... so what next?
Contra players should clear their positions by today .
U may hv a valid point.
Till the dumping or selling subsides, price may not move up much .
Collect on weakness.....the lower the merrier as result announcement is in Aug
ozone2002 ( Date: 13-Jun-2023 13:16) Posted:
If fundamentals didn' t change, the recent price correction could be a stop loss hunt ie Big boys dump price to collect more shares at cheap price
msksmsks ( Date: 13-Jun-2023 08:48) Posted:
At that time when price was abv $1.4 and indicators are toppish.
So it' s a good call to sell ..'
But now price had retraced to a level which i' m opined to
accumulate on weakness... |
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If fundamentals didn' t change, the recent price correction could be a stop loss hunt ie Big boys dump price to collect more shares at cheap price
msksmsks ( Date: 13-Jun-2023 08:48) Posted:
At that time when price was abv $1.4 and indicators are toppish.
So it' s a good call to sell ..'
But now price had retraced to a level which i' m opined to
accumulate on weakness....
ozone2002 ( Date: 12-Jun-2023 22:52) Posted:
1.24  -0.06
Hope the lucky ones took profit
cheers |
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Investors not sure but traders yes.
eddyeddy ( Date: 13-Jun-2023 13:12) Posted:
| Do investors buy or sell base on technical reasons ? |
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Do investors buy or sell base on technical reasons ?
My observations suggest that it' s not entirey forced selling. ( I culd be wrong )
But rather broke some technical support which lead to selling.
It started yesterday with support 1.26 being breached and subsequently
excerbated by selling fm weak holders (be in contra or pickedup)...
The whole scenario was replicated this mrng too...
Till some stronger players emerge.....
jlong0005 ( Date: 13-Jun-2023 11:22) Posted:
Still have buyers not picking up. Will only be stable if price up to 1.28.
eddyeddy ( Date: 13-Jun-2023 11:10) Posted:
| You have news from your broking house ? Many rushed in to buy when price Uturn up last week . |
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stay calm and steady....patience wins the game....
Still have buyers not picking up. Will only be stable if price up to 1.28.
eddyeddy ( Date: 13-Jun-2023 11:10) Posted:
You have news from your broking house ? Many rushed in to buy when price Uturn up last week .
jlong0005 ( Date: 13-Jun-2023 11:05) Posted:
| U are right, force selling by local brokers. Don' t understand why play contra with this stock? Low volume and price swing very great. |
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