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Starhub and M1 have announced a collaboration this evening. Banding together to compete with TPG ?
M1 👍
hit immediate technical support ..... readying for next level .....
seanpent ( Date: 12-Jan-2017 09:29) Posted:
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upward slope pattern taking shape .....
amongst the blue-chips, seems telcos playing catch up today ...... with Singtel leading & Starhub a laggard .....
gradual but steady .....
seanpent ( Date: 10-Jan-2017 15:28) Posted:
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may flow towards 2.98 in the coming days ?
seanpent ( Date: 10-Jan-2017 15:17) Posted:
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*technical
seanpent ( Date: 10-Jan-2017 15:13) Posted:
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technial reversal upwards liao .....
I shared earlier on another post too on certain stress signs that may suggest their dividends payout may not be sustainable. Together with the entry of the 4th telco TPG Telecom next year, all these factors seem to come together to suggest a convincing proposition of their dividends may not be able to be sustained at current payout. Of course, for next year we may not see much competition from TPG Telecom yet as they still need to build up their network coverage island wide in order to provide mobile services. Probably second half of next year 2017 or following year 2018 may see the full effects of competition from TPG Telecom. And I saw in an article that TPG Telecom commented they have to build up a market share of 5% to 6% in order to sustain their operations here. So expect that they will work towards that goal as fast as they can in the short term in order to sustain their operations here in Singapore. This means at least 5% to 6% of existing market share will be taken over by TPG Telecom assuming they are successful at it.
A potential 5% to 6% market share in the telco industry taken over by TPG Telecom may not be significant for the next one to two years. But, it is the longer term outlook depending on how TPG Telecom compete with the incumbents whether it can continue to take over more market share from the existing market share of the telco industry. They are definitely here for the long haul and I don' t think they just only want a small pie of our telco market here.
So for the next one to two years, whether the dividends payout of Starhub will fall is anybody' s guess since the impact of entry of TPG Telecom is probably still small. Starhub could still decide to keep up their dividends payout. But I will watch their financials carefully should they keep up their dividends payout at current amounts for next year to see whether are they giving out their dividends from improving free cash flows generated or through additional borrowings. If dividends is paid from additional borrowings next year, then it is another confirmation signal that the company maybe facing tougher times now since its revenues and operating incomes have stagnated over the past few years and free cash flows is getting tight and not able to sustain the current dividends payout already.
With the entry of TPG Telecom, it will be another consideration how much is the impact to Starhub' s businesses due to the ensuing competition in the years ahead. We would not know for sure how much will be the impact, but I don' t think it will be so exaggerated to bring another large telco company like Starhub down. The only concern is how much the impact to revenues and earnings. Can continue to monitor the situation for those still vested in telco companies. Don' t think it is doom and gloom. The three incumbents are experienced at handling competition. They have all along been doing that for many years in our telco industry. Just how much will be the impact from TPG Telecom, that' s all.
ecekca ( Date: 05-Jan-2017 19:07) Posted:
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It' s a pie that is not growing much. But going to be shared by more people.
so do you think starhub can maintain its dividend?
jeremyow ( Date: 03-Jan-2017 10:36) Posted:
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http://www.fool.sg/2016/10/02/a-deeper-look-at-australias-tpg-telecom-a-contender-to-be-singapores-fourth-telco/
This article by the Motley Fool provides some entry information on TPG Telecom, the fourth telco.
I did a preliminary check on TPG Telecom. Their revenues, operating earnings, operating cashflows are similar in magnitude to Starhub. Seems their operational size could match that of Starhub. Based on the above article by the Motley Fool, TPG Telecom operating in its Australia home ground currently has more broadband subscribers at 1.87 million than Optus, the Australian subsidary of Singtel at 1.1 million subscribers.
The article puts in in a amusing way that Singtel, a Singapore Telecommunications company ventured into expanding its operations in Australia while TPG Telecom an Australian Telecommunications company " returns the favour" by venturing and expanding its operations into Singapore.
Based on the operational size and capitalisation of TPG Telecom, looks like TPG Telecom will be comfortably able to establish a good long term foothold in Singapore as a fourth telecom operator.
Yes, I think it is probable. The SG market is too saturated (IMHO), to support 4 telcos.
It is value destruction. 2 license become 1. IDA will auction away the freed up license, back to 4 telco. It will happen only if both M1 and TPG reach the point of heavy loss and unsustain. If that happen, guess what would be their share price before merger?
gopguppy ( Date: 31-Dec-2016 11:24) Posted:
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I will not be surprised M1 merges with TPG to provide more competition to the other 2 players. M1 leverages on financial muscle of TPG while TPG leverages on M1' s business base and network. Win-win for both.
I think for Singtel, it doesn't matter whether M1 or TPG is wiped out. But if work with TPG on local roaming, Singtel can get a fix revenue in a sector it doesn't want to focus on.
Goldfinger ( Date: 29-Dec-2016 20:37) Posted:
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I also don' t rule out the 3 incumbent pakat to wipe out the new entrant?
investshare ( Date: 29-Dec-2016 09:08) Posted:
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AU is always 4 to 5 yrs behind SG. When i was working in AU in 2000, the only interstate WAN they have is Frame Relay where SG was already on T1 and going T3 lines.
john_ric ( Date: 29-Dec-2016 06:30) Posted:
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Guys, it may be a bit far fetch, but I don't rule out the possibility that Singtel works with TPG on local roaming. What do you think?