F&N

F& N prediction of Event Unfolding before it happens:
11 Nov- F& N closed at  $5.77.
I forecasted that  market default doesn't affect anything. As more bondholders resist, the more attractive F& N stock  appears to shareholders.  Because of the switch acquisition by Charoen, he unlocked the profitability in the F & N and distributed to all shareholders. [At this point, a lot people feared if F& N will default?]

14 Nov-  I reemphasized that  I can't find a better person than Charoen. Profits are shared.
Look at VardHolding, & its a different case. After acquisition, no dividend.

16 Nov-  I debated with Teeth53 & provided valuable information.
One of the biggest shareholder, Charoen, is just restructuring its debts due to paid at $9.50 at the price when buying F & N shares. The issuance of 2 FCL shares per F& N share, is to increase Charoen value & thereby also increasing shareholders value.Bondholders resistance will be little of significant as 100% of all shareholders passed meeting of issuing 2 FCL per F& N share.

I asked Teeth53-  Do you think past and present data & value can be comparable?
Do you think 2 FCL + 1 F& N share will be less or more than current price?

Despite several persistence by Teeth53, I reanswered: 
FYI: the market only holds % lower than biggest shareholders.
        Majority% still lies in biggest shareholders.       
        If vested players, consist of minor shareholding % battling out, while future value being unlocked is imminent.
        Who will benefit most?       

Do you really think the biggest vested players will battle out, while the potential value and capable people are managing F& N?

Teeth53 argued on the debt restricting, again I answered:
Debt restructure is the debt F& N boss loaned to buy.
The basic structure of beverage, property, printing remains intact and is profitable.
The bone you talking about is the spliting of FCL, while the meat remains intact (FCL & Beverage + Printing) at shareholders hands.
As FCL + F& N still belongs to shareholders. It only undermine bondholders.

Overall, value unlocked means profitability to F& N boss and Shareholders.

Teeth53 questioned another volatile in play?, I answered:
The market will not be a deciding factor. The F& N boss's decision will.
The value of F& N is going to be unlocked, and the future prospect will depend on how majority of F& N biggest boss and majority of FCL biggest boss manage their business. F& N will probably try restructure bondholders by paying them $$$ and discontinue loan, thus reducing company loans. In share, majority of shareholders have biggest say but not bondholders.       

Teeth53 reargued that  "       ThaiBev (Y92.SG) and TCC Assets, with a combined    90.3%    (F& N stake), have until July 19 to restore the free float."       I answered:
Because the Combined % from largest amounted to 90.3%, the biggest beneficial will be ThaiBev and TCC Assets.
The next will be remaining 9.7% of market will still benefit. Strategic review is meant for future operating, and Unlocking value likely to happen in near-term.
All comes down to the biggest shareholder decision, but the unlocking value is firmly in place as announced in meeting of resolution passed.

Teeth53 reargued that Myanmar military issue & Disposal of APB issue, I reanswered:
If NAV is $8.80, why do largest shareholder buy at $9.50?
If largest shareholder do not have confident business in F& N's benefits will cover $9.50, he wouldn't be buying.
So at even the current price of $5.80, you are still buying lesser than the largest shareholder.
If largest shareholder have nothing to fear, why should minor shareholder fear?

The theory is simple, the largest shareholder combined percentage hit 90%. Do you think the remaining 10% will affect the outcome?  The profitability depends on largest shareholder's decision, and it will be imminent unlocking of value 2 FCL begins before public buying take place.  A piece of cake theory.

17 Nov-  I reemphasized that:
Fyi: This battle is not player vs player. As merely 10%
        Its a battle Combined 2 Shareholders (90%) taking steps to improve their value, & unlocking further potential to benefit them (they are biggest beneficial),
        thereby also benefiting the small shareholders (10%)

BondHolders are merely lending money, Shareholders got enough fund from retained earning to give them back. If you are not aware, Cash Earning is almost 1 billion a year. For 2014 dividend of 0.12, approximately 2 billion had been for forkout from retained earning to distribute to shareholder.       

Teeth, as you refused the truth that giving of 2FCL, but it will be imminent.

Mr. Charoen intends to reduce his stake to a range to 88%, from 90.3% currently.
To comply with SGX rule for listing FCL in which 12% must be obtained in the hands of public.
So situation now is
  Public: 9.7%
  Buyer-Charoen sold to: 2.3%
  Mr Charoen: 88%
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304799404579152810197413736

Fraser and Neave is looking to buy back or redeem S$808.25 million worth of bonds.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/f-n-bondholders-face/884288.html

The consent exercise for F& N bondholders ends on Tuesday, and there are six bonds the company wants to redeem.
If bondholders fail to approve the spin-off and the company proceeds with it, this would trigger a technical default and allow creditors to demand immediate repayment of the bonds at par value.        The situation is also complicated as there are six different tranches of bonds at stake

My Opinion: BondHolder issue can be resolved by $$$.
                      Whether or not BondHolder approve, F& N can proceed by redeeming back the bonds by payment back immediately.

BondHolder    can delay    the listing of 2 FCL, but    cannot impact the outcome.
Ultimately, if bondholders disagree. BondHolder can sue, but    F& N can buy back bonds at par value.
In the end, it won't do BondHolder good, as interest is missed out.

Currently, the stock of F& N is precious as only    9.7% is owned by public.
This determines only small % of people will benefit from this spinoff, however it is not impossible for those who have position in F& N.

Dear Teeth, your news is outdated. As UOE already been outbidded by Thai Billionaire $9.50 few months back.
If you keep concentrating on past news, and never update. Like 11 Nov news in which meeting is already over, and keep harping on it.
F& N- You need be clear of current situation, and what matters now (Spin off of 2 FCL, Bondholder can simply delay, but will not affect the outcome).       
               

  My prediction is that those who buy F& N,    will gain sustain benefits once the spinoff of 2FCL begins.
1 F& N + 2 FCL 's value is certainly to be more than $6.       

He must reduce stake in order for FCL to be listed.
It is a rule in SGX, which he must follow if he want to list FCL.
Surely, his stake is already reduced to 88%. As SGX already approved listing of FCL.

Do i need to clarify further :)

FYI: $6 is only a minimum line.
        I already have the value of 1 F& N + 2 FCL in mind. I will not speak off, as it up to different people holding 1 F& N & 2 FCL to decide, at what time is best and most appropriate to sell. It can stretch way further than $6, depends on how you strategize these 3 stocks @ what time.

Kindly note all my information is used as reference, & not to be used in anybody buy or sell.       

He is forced to reduce, not he intend to reduce. Because listing of FCL will require 12% to be maintained in hands of Public.
Thus 90.3% to 88% is confirm.       

As for 2.3%, i don't know who he sell to. But he must sell.   


18 Nov-
There is one other point worth noting: The revelation by F& N chairman Lee Hsien Yang, together with board members Timothy Chia, Tan Chong Meng and Nicky Tan, that they plan to hold onto their shares unless Charoen?s offer turns unconditional.        All these suggest that even at S$8.88 a share, there may still be value to be unlocked in F& N shares.       
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/More-value-to-be-unlocked-in-F& N-shares-30192217.html   


1 Dec-

FYI: 100%-12%= 88% (Maximum he can hold)
        His total state 90.3% to 88% (Difference 2.3%)

He is forced to reduce, not he intend to reduce. Because listing of FCL will require 12% to be maintained in hands of Public.
Thus 90.3% to 88% is confirm.         

As for 2.3%, i don't know who he sell to. But he must sell.       

Out of 5 bondholders, only 2 bondholders opposed.
On 29 Nov, a re-meeting is scheduled & F& N    fully paid the 2 bondholders with interests.
So now,    bond issue are resolved on 29 Nov.

As spoken previously, 2 FCL listing will be imminent and to advantage of biggest shareholders (88%) that subsequently benefits the remaining 12% shareholders.
A dividend will also be paid on Feb 2014.

4 Dec-  i foresee    huge room  for F& N share price to grow.
- The 2 FCL waiting to be released
- The 2014 dividend waiting to be released
- Hospital Trusts waiting to be released

The decision of biggest shareholders will be a key to F& N share price.

6 Dec-  Hospital Trust would be in 2014 onward, as details haven't been covered by largest shareholder yet.
This will most likely add value to the earnings of F& N. If to give to shareholder, it is up to largest shareholder's decision.

11 Dec- F& N destiny depends on biggest shareholder decision. Unlocking of 2 FCL should be expedited to serve shareholders well.

12 Dec- The biggest shareholder, CHAROEN, had finally reduced total share to 87.93%, allowing 12% public float for the listing of 2 FCL.
It is wise that    2 FCL be as fast as possible    to implement to create the best, & highest profit valuation of F& N + 2 FCL.
As long as biggest shareholder understand the result of the timing of implementation of 2 FCL, the highest valuation can be achieved.

It is best to be implemented within 1 week from today.

14 Dec- It is best the largest shareholder announce the implementation 2 FCL swiftly by next week (latest by 19 Dec).
Any delay will affect the overall valuation    &       Any swift implementation will bring the overall valuation to the best valuation.

I answered nea03177 question ?Do they need to wait for the bondholders meeting on 28 Dec, before proceeding??

Bondholders are not of concern. If any bondholder reject, can just pay them back $$ plus interests.
Largest Shareholder have the final say to proceed. It depends on his decision, but the timing of release 2 FCL will affect the total valuation.
It is best the largest shareholder announce the implementation 2 FCL swiftly by next week (latest by 19 Dec).   

18 Dec-  F& N overall valuation continues to lie in the hands of largest shareholder.
There is hesitation as well as a need to implement release of 2 FCL- Duration of implementation will affect overall valuation.
There is a    possible trend of slowly recovering F& N price.

I continue to maintain my forecast of        the value of 1 F& N + 2 FCL = $6/ Higher
Therefore F& N price remains a fairly attractive price.   

Among all the big cap stocks, F& N remains well positioned in market & is fairly solid with future potential value untapped.

24 Dec-  It will be actualized soon. $6 is minimum as predicted, while the maximum is unknown.
                        As forecasted, & its potential is waiting to be shown. F& N remains the best among all big cap stocks.
              (As announced on 23 Dec-  Event 1# Bondholder issue resolved. 
                                                        Event 2# F& N reached public float of 88%, &  
                                                        Event 3# release of 2 FCL per 1 F& N shares.)
              Market closed at  $5.97 [As per 17 Nov prediction:        My prediction is that those who buy F& N,    will gain sustain benefits once the spinoff of 2FCL begins.  1 F& N + 2 FCL 's value is certainly to be more than $6.      ]

26 Dec before market open- I forecasted F& N share price is expected to  leap  upward beyond $6 and higher.
26 Dec Closing-  F& N closed at $6.20
27 Dec before market open- I forecasted F& N share price to rise higher