https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/banking-finance/bitcoin-retreats-two-year-high-first-day-etf-trading

https://www.techtarget.com/whatis/feature/Common-cryptocurrency-scams

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzerbXFwGCE

 

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

 

https://giphy.com/gifs/YpT3swqWJOk4LkeWpI

https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin/

 

https://tenor.com/view/makelovenotwar-johnlennon-thebeatles-gif-4724990

 

https://wifflegif.com/gifs/245971-you-may-say-im-a-dreamer-gif

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtW_4j7SsZk

https://wifflegif.com/gifs/245971-you-may-say-im-a-dreamer-gif

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OAfxs0IDeMs

In the latter half of 2022, the FOMC had hiked the FFR by 0.75 percentage points on 4 different consecutive occasions, and in its final meeting of 2022, hiked the FFR a further 0.5 percentage points.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cFOLFtw2Ic

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate

 

US bring the world to " a desert world dry of liquidity"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaOHlulnf3U

usd sgd 1.3297

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election

Analysts make the case for US small- and mid-caps while waiting for the Fed to call an end to its hiking cycle
What does 2024 have in store for global markets? JP Morgan&rsquo s outlook for the year sees &ldquo 2% growth, zero recessions, 2% inflation and 4% unemployment&rdquo in the US. Will its forecasts come true? Or is it just reading the tea leaves  &mdash an act of divination?

JP Morgan suggests a soft landing for the US remains in reach, with disinflation set to continue. According to the bank, the US Federal Reserve Board now appears satisfied with its progress &mdash an about-face from this year&rsquo s white-knuckle warnings.
This time last year, our outlook cover story (A tougher year ahead, issue 1069, Jan 16, 2023) reflected the market&rsquo s jitters, with analysts weighing the possibility of recessions in major economies.
However, 2023 defied almost everyone&rsquo s expectations, says Candace Browning, head of Bank of America (BofA) global research. &ldquo [2023 saw] recessions that never came, rate cuts that didn&rsquo t materialise, bond markets that didn&rsquo t bounce &mdash except in short-lived, vicious spurts &mdash and rising equities that pained most investors who remained cautiously underweight.&rdquo
This year, analysts are abuzz about a global shift to impending rate cuts. The Fed decided on Dec 13 to keep its key interest rate steady for the third straight time as policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to keep the benchmark overnight borrowing rate between 5.25% and 5.50%.
See also:  A new investment cycle could produce upside to regional growth
With US inflation held down, members indicated at least three quarter-point rate cuts this year &mdash and more critically, a willingness to do so pre-emptively.
This could potentially signal the end of a cycle that has seen 11 hikes, pushing the Fed funds target rate to a 22-year high. Further cuts could reduce this rate to 2% and 2.25% sometime in 2026.
&ldquo We expect 2024 to be the year when central banks can successfully orchestrate a soft landing, though [we] recognise that downside risks may outnumber the upside ones,&rdquo says BofA&rsquo s Browning.
See also:  Could 4 billion voters shape global markets in 2024?
Analysts from the US&rsquo s largest banks agree that rate cuts are coming but not until the latter half of the year.
&ldquo A decelerating economy should keep the Fed firmly on hold through the first half of 2024,&rdquo reads JP Morgan Asset Management&rsquo s outlook. &ldquo Assuming the economy avoids a recession next year, we expect the Fed to reduce policy rates gradually and avoid a knee-jerk pivot to aggressive rate cuts.&rdquo
The current target range is 5.25%&ndash 5.50%. JP Morgan&rsquo s head of research for commercial banking forecasts 25 basis point (bps) cuts at each FOMC meeting starting in June, bringing the target range to 4%&ndash 4.25% at the end of 2024. Similarly, BofA&rsquo s head of US economics expects the first Fed rate cut in June but with a slower 25 bps cut per quarter in 2H2024 (September and December).
Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, expects the Fed to start cutting in June and end the year with rates at 4.375%, or within the target range of 4.25%&ndash 4.50%.
The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year. Following this year&rsquo s June meeting, the FOMC will meet four times in 2H2024 &mdash in July, September, November and December.'

Goldman Sachs analysts Melissa Kuang and Olivia Shi foresee that 2024 will mark an inflection downwards for most Asean banks after their profitability peaked in 2023. This is likely due to a rate cut cycle happening as early as 1Q2024, according to Goldman&rsquo s economists. &ldquo We forecast Asean banks to enter a downward trend at differing paces, depending on the pace of policy rate cut in each region based on our economists&rsquo forecasts,&rdquo they write.
However, instead of a tumble in the banks&rsquo return on assets (ROAs), the analysts expect to see a gentle easing amid an anticipated rebound in Asean&rsquo s GDP. The expected GDP growth is supported by recovery in global trade, an easing in monetary policy and Thailand&rsquo s implementation of pro-growth fiscal policies and ongoing recovery in its tourism sector. Indonesia&rsquo s higher pre-election spending offsetting the drag from lower coal export prices is also another contributor to the region&rsquo s growth.

&ldquo For 2024, we expect ROAs to see -0.07 percentage points to 0.02 percentage point contraction/expansion from 2023, with 2026 average ROA to be 4 basis points (bps) lower than 2024 levels and remain above 2019 (pre-Covid levels), ex Thailand banks (given large investment gains in 2019),&rdquo they say. This comes as net interest margins (NIMs) begin to decline as the world enters into a rate cut cycle. Singapore banks are expected to tip first as the Fed cuts are anticipated to begin in March 2024. This is then followed by Indonesian banks with rate cuts expected in the 2Q2024. Banks in the Philippines are likely to begin cutting rates in the 4Q2024 while Thai banks are the last with cuts to start in the 4Q2025.
That said, the banks&rsquo NIMs are still likely to remain at or above 2019 levels. The analysts also see banks&rsquo loan growth to accelerate on the back of macro tailwinds and the lower interest rate environment. Fee income recovery amid the easing financial market conditions and manageable credit costs as well as robust provisioning buffers are also expected in 2024.
&ldquo Earnings wise, on average we anticipate [an] earnings per share (EPS) growth of -3% to 10% for FY2024 and 0.4% to 8.1% for FY2025 &mdash with Singapore banks to see declines in EPS growth in FY2024 and for Indonesia banks to see the highest growth,&rdquo say the analysts.
On the whole, the analysts see valuations for Asean banks to remain range bound in 2024 on the back of a better macro environment. See also:  UOB Kay Hian keeps &lsquo buy&rsquo call on SATS, expects recovery via increased travel and cargo
At their current levels, valuations are undemanding. Banks in Singapore, the Philippines and Thailand are trading at 1.13 times, 1.05 times and 0.60 times their 12-month forward P/B, below their three-year pre-Covid historical average P/B and above 1 standard deviation (s.d.) of 2.59 times for the Indonesian banks.
&ldquo Our historical analysis shows valuation compression is minimal in the early stages of a rate cut cycle when the macro outlook remains decent (our current assumption for this cycle). Valuation multiples only fall sharply on heading into a recession,&rdquo they say.
In addition, they note that banks&rsquo share prices in absolute terms have historically been only &ldquo slightly down&rdquo when rate cuts start and tumble and when a recession hits.
See also:  Maybank lifts Genting Singapore&rsquo s TP to $1.21 following en masse return of Chinese tourists
&ldquo Interestingly, contrary to market understanding, banks in most cases outperform local indexes through the rate cut cycles with or without recession,&rdquo they add.
Among the Asean countries, Indonesia is the analysts&rsquo most preferred region given their most robust mid-teen total book value (BV) creation for FY2022 to FY2025. The Philippines is their next preferred region with the second-highest total book value growth while Singapore ranks third in their list.
&ldquo ROAs will likely ease the most post peaking in 2023 driven by NIM contractions as local rates are likely to see the largest fall versus [their] Asean peers given its ties to the Fed. Nonetheless, we expect Singapore banks will see offset from a recovery in loan growth and also fee income with wealth to be the main driver as investment activities should recover in a lower rate environment, and also as Singapore continues to attract assets under management (AUMs) as a wealth hub,&rdquo say Kuang and Shi.
&ldquo For 2024 we do anticipate rise in credit cost from low levels in 2023 as we bake in risk from commercial real estate (CRE) exposures (mainly Hong Kong/China/ Western region) which should fade the year after,&rdquo they add.
DBS and UOB downgraded OCBC top pick
Among the three Singaporean banks, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) is the analysts&rsquo top pick as it looks to further optimise its capital, which was a long-term concern previously as excess capital dragged on the bank&rsquo s return on equity (ROE).
&ldquo Valuations are also still at a discount to peers, DBS and UOB, averaging -12% on P/B versus the historical three-year pre-Covid average of -7%, despite the narrowing in the ROA gap to peers,&rdquo they write.
For more stories about where money flows,  click here for Capital Section
The analysts have rated OCBC &ldquo buy&rdquo , the only Singaporean bank among the region&rsquo s institutions as it is &ldquo showing success from transformation [with] a desire to further optimise capital&rdquo . OCBC is also on Kuang and Shi&rsquo s Asia Pacific (APAC) Conviction list.
On the flip side, the analysts downgraded their call on DBS Group Holdings (DBS) to &ldquo sell&rdquo from &ldquo neutral&rdquo due to its relatively &ldquo rich valuations&rdquo . The bank&rsquo s NIM is also the most sensitive to rates in the event of a rate cut environment.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) was also downgraded to &ldquo neutral&rdquo from &ldquo buy&rdquo as the analysts see pressure in its earnings when the rate cuts start. The bank also has little room to raise its dividends unlike its peers given its tight common equity tier 1 (CET-1) ratio versus management&rsquo s comfort level to support its share price.
Shares in DBS, OCBC and UOB closed at $32.51, $12.83 and $28.23 on Jan 10.


I still will load up ocbc below $13 for its 6.3% dividend yield in 2024
 

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/singapore/president-tharman-briefed-dpm-wong-projected-returns-investing-singapore-reserves

 

https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-sgd

 

in sgd term their overseas assets returns drop and their sgd assets can buy more overesas assets when overseas assets fall after the printed money are sucked out of the system

https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

and the very very volatile dumb dollar

https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-sgd

https://www.haituu.tv/vod/play/id/273231/sid/1/nid/5.html

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4395340-2024-election-trump-leads-biden-key-swing-states-narrow-survey/

 

this two are the

Psychological torture

for the US!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Kushner

and when biden stay in power who profits

https://www.thedailystar.net/business/news/king-dollar-seen-vulnerable-2024-if-fed-pivots-3506376

 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Currencies/Japanese-yen-has-two-problems-on-the-horizon-in-2024

https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-sgd

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2021/august/dollar-exposure-public-debt-asia-latin-america