Others   

News affecting Banks

They may give higher interest rate, free gift etc just like Grab..

Starship      ( Date: 05-Jul-2019 14:17) Posted: Speaking for myself..... Nearly all payments can already be done via Visa Paywave or equivalent. Online payments are also easily done via Visa/MC.  Even automatic Giro bills such as utilities, telco, town council, etc are seemlessly effected thru Visa/MC.  So regardless of any amount, there' s no reason for me to use any of the new full digital banks or any e-wallet fm any e-commerce brands at all. Why complicate life when nearly everything can already go thru just one Visa/MC card number.  And monthly Visa bills automatically paid thru one bank account. Live More, Bank Less................

 

Speaking for myself.....
Nearly all payments can already be done via Visa Paywave or equivalent. Online payments are also easily done via Visa/MC. 
Even automatic Giro bills such as utilities, telco, town council, etc are seemlessly effected thru Visa/MC. 
So regardless of any amount, there' s no reason for me to use any of the new full digital banks or any e-wallet fm any e-commerce brands at all.
Why complicate life when nearly everything can already go thru just one Visa/MC card number.  And monthly Visa bills automatically paid thru one bank account.
Live More, Bank Less................

 

 

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/to-challenger-banks-an-incumbent-poses-s2-million-question
.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

My question:   Would you put $S2mil if these companies if they have a bank liscense?

1) Singtel
2) ST Engineering
3) Google (i do not know if they qualifies)
4) Microsoft (i do not know if they qualifies)
5) Any big tech company with loads of cash and positive cash flow from operation.



 

 

China insists US must remove all trade war tariffs as part of deal, says commerce ministry spokesman

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3017295/china-insists-us-must-remove-all-trade-war-tariffs-part-deal



 

 

Kudlow says US-China trade talks to be held in person as soon as next week

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/03/kudlow-says-us-china-trade-talks-to-be-held-in-person-as-soon.html
 

 

Britain&rsquo s big banks see &lsquo trust&rsquo as a competitive edge amid the rise of fledgling fintechs

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/03/uk-banks-hsbc-and-rbs-see-trust-as-an-advantage-amid-rise-of-fintech.html

 

Hong Kong protests are giving banks a headache
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-finance/hong-kong-protests-are-giving-banks-a-headache

' Banking is necessary banks are not'
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinion/banking-is-necessary-banks-are-not

 

 

Singapore firms' payment performance worsens in Q2

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/singapore-firms-payment-performance-worsens-in-q2-manufacturing-sees-largest-rise



 

 

Asian banks face threat from profit plunge, digital rivals: McKinsey
https://www.dealstreetasia.com/stories/asian-banks-mckinsey-142667/

Asia-Pacific banks must radically reform and slash costs or else they will eventually be forced to put themselves up for sale, as rapidly increasing competition from technology firms moving into banking transforms the sector, consultancy McKinsey said.

Asian  banks&rsquo average return on equity (ROE) &ndash a measure of profitability &ndash fell to 10.1% last year from 12.4% in 2010, and could be as low as 6.4% in 2023 if new digital banks can build scale rapidly and take significant market share from incumbents, the consultancy said in a report published on Tuesday.

Bank profit has fallen because of slowing economic growth in many markets, rising non-performing loans following a period of over-lending, complacency from lenders who have not cut costs as much as rivals, and due to the rising presence of digital players, McKinsey said in the report, co-authored by the head of its Financial Services Practice in Asia, Jacob Dahl.

The report comes after the Monetary Authority of Singapore on Friday said it would issue up to five digital bank licences, complementing action across the region where regulators are tweaking rules to facilitate online-only banks, which are often run by technology firms.

In Hong Kong, eight so-called virtual banks are set to launch services by the end of this year. Last month, Hong Kong&rsquo s five largest banks including HSBC Holdings PLC slashed minimum balance fees, a move analysts attributed to the looming competition.

&ldquo European banks and other industries, like the car industry, have been forced to slash their cost base not by 2%, but 20%, and not once, but year after year&hellip This is the kind of structural mindset some  Asian  banks need,&rdquo Dahl told Reuters.

Banks that cannot take such action will eventually have to sell themselves as tech rivals, benefiting from access to more consumer data, seek to bulk up, the report showed.

&ldquo The road ahead is difficult, and less efficient banks will disappear,&rdquo it said. Consolidation is particularly likely in markets like Japan, China and Vietnam where the four largest banks together control less than half the market.

Reuters
 

 

Week of 24 June 2019
Institutional investors net sell (-S$54.1m) vs. (-S$70.0m) a week ago
Retail investors net sell (-S$322.3m) vs. (-S$369.9m) a week ago
Top 10 Institution Net Buy (+) Stocks (S$M)	Stock Code	Week of 24 June	Top 10 Institution Net Sell (-) Stocks (S$M)	Stock Code	Week of 24 June
Singtel	Z74	69.0	DBS	D05	(50.6)
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding	BS6	12.3	UOB	U11	(42.5)
Mapletree Industrial Trust	ME8U	11.9	Venture Corporation	V03	(17.9)
NetLink NBN Trust	CJLU	9.2	SIA	C6L	(14.5)
Keppel REIT	K71U	7.8	OCBC	O39	(13.3)
SGX	S68	5.3	Hongkong Land	H78	(9.9)
Frasers Commercial Trust	ND8U	5.0	Genting Singapore	G13	(8.8)
Ascott Residence Trust	A68U	4.7	ST Engineering	S63	(8.0)
Jardine Strategic	J37	4.1	Jardine Matheson	J36	(6.6)
CapitaLand Commercial Trust	C61U	3.9	Mapletree Logistics Trust	M44U	(5.5)
Top 10 Retail Net Buy (+) Stocks (S$M)	Stock Code	Week of 24 June	Top 10 Retail Net Sell (-) Stocks (S$M)	Stock Code	Week of 24 June
Venture Corporation	V03	12.3	Singtel	Z74	(88.8)
Hongkong Land	H78	8.1	OCBC	O39	(46.4)
SIA	C6L	6.4	DBS	D05	(33.7)
Cromwell European REIT	CNNU	5.2	SGX	S68	(23.9)
Dairy Farm International	D01	4.5	Keppel Corporation	BN4	(21.7)
ESR-REIT	J91U	4.2	CapitaLand	C31	(17.2)
Singapore Post	S08	2.4	UOB	U11	(15.9)
Sembcorp Marine	S51	1.8	Wilmar International	F34	(15.7)
Frasers Hospitality Trust	ACV	1.5	CapitaLand Commercial Trust	C61U	(8.8)
SPH REIT	SK6U	1.4	NetLink NBN Trust	CJLU	(8.1)
Source: Singapore Exchange

 

Good time to write down your trading strategies over the weekend for the Trump Xi G20 meet outcome.

1) read thru' (the written, the implied and  what is left unsaid) of all available media reports and prominent blogs of both western and eastern media  sources. 
2) Do a own fundamental take/analysis   of what are the tangibles coming out of this Trump Xi meet.
3) Formulate your own trading plan to suit your risk and trading profile with stops, limits, trailing stops.
4) Tweet the trading plans with each significant news.
5) Keep the faith and Huat. 

 

Other reasons why China is unlikely to yield to US demands infringing on China' s sovereignty are.

1) China' s internal political and masses stability and unity.
2) China can see light at the end of the tunnel in the Trade war in all scenarios  at either 1.5years or 5.5years.  After Trump is no longer the President of US.

IMO, DYODD

 

1) I do not expect Xi to back down on the core issues that are deem as infringing on China' s sovereignty.
2) Trump is more likely than Xi to soften, however, Trump might be also feels that he can reach his goal on China faster with a harder stand or (more likely) able to reach those goals unilaterally without China' s cooperations.  Look at the case of Mexico.
3) China is not like Mexico, with the Opium wars and Long March experience and humiliation being re-visited bt the Chinese Government lately, China is unlikely to yield.
4) Hence, the most likely outcome from this G20 meeting of Trump and Xi (IMO) is Scenario 2 of the CNBC article...... &ldquo Scenario 2: US holds off on additional China tariffs for a fixed number of days, talks restart (35% probability)&rdquo
 

Luzern      ( Date: 12-Jun-2019 13:25) Posted: Another repost...... ..................................................................... Because I am expecting a unfavourable G20 meeting between Trump and Xi, based on current situation and available information.  This might change as we get closer to the meeting, hence a tweet to the trading plans. On why I expect the talk in G20 to fail, ........ I do not expect Xi to back down on issues in the US China Trade talk that it considered off limit.    These are the very reasons China " backtracked" in the previous trade talks and caused the May Market correction.  As for Trump, previously, given Trump' s track record, there was a good chance he might back off on some of the thornier issues in the Trade Talk to get a deal.  However, recently, he has demonstrated a new level of boldness/rashness in his actions.  I suspect this has something to do with his limited time in office til the next Election, hence, the urgency to move things along faster.  This might also be a case of using China as a show piece to caution and pressure the other trading countries that has been sponging  off on US' s generousity.  Or it could be that Trump has come to a conclusion that he does not need a trade deal with China to get the outcome he is looking for.  He can even out the trade imbalances by upping tariffs, he can slow down China' s 5G dominate, Technological rise and IP theft by going after Pivotal Chinese Tech Companies and blacklisting them, hence, making any co-operation between them and US Companies illegal and puting pressure on foreign companies to stop working with these blacklisted Chinese Companies.  And tariffs also help the US government make some goos money, to the tune of ~US$130B on 25% on US$525B of Chinee imports. IMO, DYODD.   On why Xi is unlikely to back down.  Xi has been successfully consolidating his power hold in China so he can afford to take bold steps, take more economic and political pain (with the right cause)  without losing too much support and control. The Chinese government has been preparing the population on the possibility of a long drawn out trade war with the mentioning of The Long March.  Some even mentioned and draw similarity of the current situation to the  Opium wars,  which is a national insult to  China.  This harden the Chinese resolve not to bent to the will of foreign powers again.  Imagine what will happen if Xi backdown on the trade talk with US?    This will not go down well with the Chinese people and the other political leaders.  In fact,  it will give the ambitious a reason to dispose Xi.  So Xi, really do not have a choice here. IMO, DYODD

 

Singapore Heading for Recession Next Quarter, Maybank Says

http://www.msn.com/en-sg/news/singapore/singapore-heading-for-recession-next-quarter-maybank-says/ar-AADu0fb?ocid=ientp

 

 

Trade war: US and China agree tentative truce before G20 summit

This story is part of an ongoing series on US-China relations produced jointly by the South China Morning Post and POLITICO, with reporting from Asia and the United States.

The US and China have tentatively agreed to another truce in their trade war in order to resume talks aimed at resolving the dispute, sources familiar with the situation said.
Details of the agreement are being laid out in press releases in advance of  the meeting  between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump at the Group
of 20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, this weekend, according to three sources &ndash one in Beijing and two in Washington.  Such an agreement would avert the next round of
tariffs on an  additional US$300 billion    of Chinese imports, which if applied would extend punitive tariffs to virtually all the country&rsquo s shipments to the United States.
 
The Trump administration has threatened to slap duties of up to 25 per cent on the remaining untaxed Chinese goods if this weekend&rsquo s talks go poorly.
One source with knowledge of the planning said Trump&rsquo s decision to delay additional tariffs was Xi&rsquo s price for holding the meeting in Osaka.
&ldquo The reality, though, is President Trump could always have a change of heart,&rdquo the source said. &ldquo But the truce cake seems to have been baked.&rdquo
Neither the White House nor the Office of the US Trade Representative had any comment on the reports.

Trump reiterated on Wednesday that he was prepared to impose additional tariffs on China if the talks in Osaka failed, but suggested additional duties could start at 10 per cent.
A senior Trump administration official told POLITICO earlier this week that it is possible that tariffs could be delayed but cautioned that &ldquo nothing is certain. Absolutely nothing.&rdquo
It is unclear whether Trump will give any sort of deadline for the talks to reach an agreement, as he had before. Two sources suggested a deadline of six months, which would put
the deadline at the end of the year.

Since the trade war started nearly a year ago, Trump has imposed 25 per cent tariffs on US$250 billion worth of Chinese goods.
A Washington-based source familiar with the talks said that there were &ldquo ongoing attempts to coordinate press messaging&rdquo , but added that there was no specificity yet regarding decisions
on tariffs or timing within that messaging. The person, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that both sides would be expected to release coordinated press releases following the summit
as opposed to one joint statement. Such a strategy would align with that which followed the two presidents&rsquo last sit-down after a G20 meeting in Buenos Aires in December, which resulted in a 
three-month pledge  to pause further tariff escalation. The stakes were even higher this time after Trump promised to subject all Chinese imports to new tariffs. The language of any statements
coming out of Saturday&rsquo s meeting &ndash whether via a joint communique or separate statements &ndash is certain to be subject to the same level of intense inspection.
After the dinner meeting in Buenos Aires, both sides released their own statements, which, while generally consistent, differed on a number of crucial details, prompting immediate scrutiny
among analysts seeking to shed light on the closed-door talks.




 

 

Our Banks China exposure.........31%, 26%, 15%

Luzern      ( Date: 30-Jan-2019 09:10) Posted: https://sbr.com.sg/financial-services/news/singapore-bank-loans-grind-halt-05-in-2019   Singapore bank loans grind to a halt at 0.5% in 2019   Total loans and advances fell to 2.8% in November 2018 from October' s 3.4%. Singapore bank loans are expected to grow by a measly 0.5% by the end of 2019 from a previous estimate of 3% as the slowing housing market and decelerating Chinese economy takes its heavy toll on the commercial banking sector, according to Fitch Solutions. Also read: Property curbs and trade war are double whammy for Singapore banks Total loans and advances already slowed to 2.8% in November 2018 from 3.4% the previous month to record its weakest pace since the end of 2016, data from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) show. The loan decline is set to extend as Singapore banks&rsquo profitable mortgage businesses take a hit from the government&rsquo s cooling measures that were announced in July 2018, Housing and bridging loans, which account for 30.4% of the banks&rsquo total loan portfolio, slowed to 2.4% in November from 4.2% in June. &ldquo We expect the downtrend to continue as the outlook for the housing market in 2019 is likely to be weak as home buyers choose to hold back on purchases not only due to tighter restrictions, but also owing to higher borrowing costs and negative economic and property sentiment,&rdquo Fitch Solutions said in a report. Also read: Singapore mortgage loans to grow 3% in 2019 Business-related lending is also set to cool as China&rsquo s economy decelerates under the pressure of its deleveraging campaign and protracted trade dispute with the US. In fact, loans to business already slowed to 3.3% growth in November 2018 from 8.8% in November 2017. &ldquo [T]he expansion of Singapore&rsquo s big three banks into Greater China over the past couple of years directly exposes them to headwinds faced by the Chinese economy,&rdquo the research firm said. &ldquo This suggests that the three Singapore banks&rsquo loan growth in China is likely to face a tougher environment in 2019 than during the deceleration in 2015-2016 when the Chinese consumer sector was not under as much pressure and the overall slowdown was not as broad as it is currently.&rdquo DBS has the highest loan exposure to Greater China amongst the Big 3 at 31% as of September 2018, according to estimates from FItch Solutions. OCBC and UOB have loan exposure of 26% and 15% respectively. Luzern      ( Date: 29-Jan-2019 14:55) Posted: Banks Nov 2018 numbers points to slowing loan growth.........

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/24/heres-wall-streets-playbook-for-the-trump-xi-meeting-at-the-g-20-summit.html

Scenario 1: US holds off on additional China tariffs indefinitely, talks restart (45% probability)

The most likely scenario from the Trump-Xi meeting in Japan is that the U.S. agrees not to impose tariffs on the additional $300 billion in Chinese imports without a concrete timeframe, Straszheim said.

Straszheim says this outcome has a 45% probability of taking place and ranks as the second-most favorable for Trump, Xi and the market.
 
This is a jointly recognized time-out. Higher tariffs by the US are not implemented for maybe a short time, maybe a long time,& rdquo Straszheim said in a note. Real negotiations would presumably be re-launched. This is maximum uncertainty on tariffs, and to the Markets and others (in China, the US and Rest of World), but provides maximum flexibility to Trump.
 
 
Scenario 2: US holds off on additional China tariffs for a fixed number of days, talks restart (35% probability)

The second-most likely scenario is the two sides agree to restart trade talks with the U.S. holding off on additional tariffs for a fixed amount of time, Straszheim said.

There is a 35% chance of this outcome taking place and it would be the most favorable to Xi and the stock market as it would give them time to breathe. It would also give the market certainty for more negotiation (and assessment) time.& rdquo But what makes this scenario unlikely is it would hamstring Trump in future negotiations.

Trump has no flexibility during this period, Straszheim said.

This scenario along with the first one would likely benefit trade-sensitive names like Caterpillar and chipmaker stocks. These stocks have underperformed the broader market recently amid the lingering trade fears.

Caterpillar shares are up around 4% over the past three months. Micron Technology, Nvidia, Xilinx and Skyworks Solutions are all down at least 7.9%. The S& P 500, meanwhile, is up more than 5% in that time.
 
 
Scenario 3: US and China make no mention of additional tariffs, suggesting they will be implemented soon (20% probability)

This is the worst-case scenario for both Xi and the market as it deals another body blow to the Chinese economy and increases fear among investors that the trade conflict will drag for longer.
This would be bad news, suggesting a near breakdown on remaining differences,   Straszheim said.   At best the two sides would maintain communications.

In this outcome, no mention of new US tariffs is included in the statements, suggesting the US will proceed with tariffing $300 bln, he added. Straszheim expects Trump to slap a 10% tariff on those additional Chinese imports in this scenario.

Assets like gold and Treasurys would benefit from this outcome as stocks would fall under pressure. Gold has been on a tear lately. The precious metal hit its highest level since 2013 on Monday. Investors have also plowed into Treasury yields recently, pushing the benchmark 10-year yield to its lowest level since 2016.

This is the least-likely scenario only a 20% chance of happening given the political and economic implications, the strategist said. It is now, however, outside the realm of possibility.

This is fluid surprises are not ruled out.
 
 

 

Thanks.
Top pick UOB dropped today. 
 

Luzern      ( Date: 24-Jun-2019 10:20) Posted: CheeryVGoh, Apologies, was away on holidays. General positivities in the Markets carries all counters higher.  The Institution Fund flows shows that the Funds have been favoring UOB more than the other banks recently.  However, if we look at the fundamental, our banks althought still strong, will be affected by any worsening US China Trade war and NIM. IMO, DYODD. CheeryVGoh      ( Date: 18-Jun-2019 11:38) Posted: Any news regarding UOB.  Why up so much today

 

Banks..............The Data from SGX says it all............

 

Week of 17 June 2019
Institutional investors net sell (-S$70.0m) vs. (+S$183.3m) a week ago
Retail investors net sell (-S$369.9m) vs. (-S$92.1m) a week ago
Top 10 Institution Net Buy (+) Stocks (S$M)	Stock Code	Week of 17 June	Top 10 Institution Net Sell (-) Stocks (S$M)	Stock Code	Week of 17 June
SGX	S68	20.1	DBS	D05	(76.7)
CapitaLand Commercial Trust	C61U	15.7	CapitaLand Mall Trust	C38U	(26.2)
Singtel	Z74	14.7	Ascendas REIT	A17U	(16.6)
NetLink NBN Trust	CJLU	11.4	City Developments	C09	(11.3)
Keppel REIT	K71U	9.8	Sembcorp Industries	U96	(10.4)
Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust	RW0U	8.6	Jardine Cycle & Carriage	C07	(9.1)
Keppel Infrastructure Trust	A7RU	7.9	OCBC	O39	(6.8)
Jardine Matheson	J36	6.9	ESR-REIT	J91U	(5.9)
Keppel Corporation	BN4	6.9	ST Engineering	S63	(5.7)
ComfortDelGro	C52	6.6	SPH	T39	(5.4)
Top 10 Retail Net Buy (+) Stocks (S$M)	Stock Code	Week of 17 June	Top 10 Retail Net Sell (-) Stocks (S$M)	Stock Code	Week of 17 June
ESR-REIT	J91U	10.5	UOB	U11	(56.8)
Keppel DC REIT	AJBU	3.1	Singtel	Z74	(55.1)
Jardine Matheson	J36	2.6	OCBC	O39	(51.4)
Japfa	UD2	2.2	SGX	S68	(38.5)
Dairy Farm International	D01	2.0	Keppel Corporation	BN4	(25.0)
AA Group Holdings	5GZ	2.0	CapitaLand	C31	(15.5)
Sembcorp Industries	U96	1.8	Venture Corporation	V03	(15.0)
First REIT	AW9U	1.7	City Developments	C09	(13.6)
Hutchison Port Holdings Trust	NS8U	1.5	NetLink NBN Trust	CJLU	(11.3)
Hongkong Land	H78	1.4	ST Engineering	S63	(9.5)
Source: Singapore Exchange
Definition: Institutional fund flow is derived by subtracting retail account flow and MMLP flow from TOTAL ST markets flows. Net buy/sell amount is derived by subtracting total sell amount from total buy amount
Definition: Retail fund flow is derived by subtracting institutional investors account flow and MMLP flow from TOTAL ST markets flows. Net buy/sell amount is derived by subtracting total sell amount from total buy amount
Note: Fund flow data for all SGX-listed companies only
http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/sgxweb/home/products/securities/about-securities/market-insights#keysectors