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WanSiTong ( Date: 26-Dec-2013 23:41) Posted:
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Details will be furnished later.
luminol ( Date: 27-Dec-2013 09:56) Posted:
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So each to his own. Certainly, my view is still hold. [Reason will be provided at end of my prediction, but not now]
There may be fall or rise of F& N price, but i have my reason to hold :)
F& N prediction of Event Unfolding before it happens:
11 Nov- F& N closed at $5.77.
I forecasted that market default doesn't affect anything. As more bondholders resist, the more attractive F& N stock appears to shareholders. Because of the switch acquisition by Charoen, he unlocked the profitability in the F & N and distributed to all shareholders. [At this point, a lot people feared if F& N will default?]
14 Nov- I reemphasized that I can't find a better person than Charoen. Profits are shared.
Look at VardHolding, & its a different case. After acquisition, no dividend.
16 Nov- I debated with Teeth53 & provided valuable information.
One of the biggest shareholder, Charoen, is just restructuring its debts due to paid at $9.50 at the price when buying F & N shares. The issuance of 2 FCL shares per F& N share, is to increase Charoen value & thereby also increasing shareholders value.Bondholders resistance will be little of significant as 100% of all shareholders passed meeting of issuing 2 FCL per F& N share. (2 Days Later from my 11 Nov Prediction)
Do you think 2 FCL + 1 F& N share will be less or more than current price? (I give hints but nobody took it seriously)
Despite several persistence by Teeth53, I reanswered:
The market only holds % lower than biggest shareholders. Majority% still lies in biggest shareholders. If vested players, consist of minor shareholding % battling out, while future value being unlocked is imminent.
Who will benefit most?
Teeth53 argued on the debt restricting, I answered:
Debt restructure is the debt F& N boss loaned to buy. The basic structure of beverage, property, printing remains intact and is profitable. The bone you talking about is the spliting of FCL, while the meat remains intact (FCL & Beverage + Printing) at shareholders hands. As FCL + F& N still belongs to shareholders. It only undermine bondholders. Overall, value unlocked means profitability to F& N boss and Shareholders.
Teeth53 questioned another volatile in play?, I answered:
The market will not be a deciding factor. The F& N boss's decision will.
The value of F& N is going to be unlocked, and the future prospect will depend on how majority of F& N biggest boss and majority of FCL biggest boss manage their business. F& N will probably try restructure bondholders by paying them $$$ and discontinue loan (Prediction before happen), thus reducing company loans. In share, majority of shareholders have biggest say but not bondholders.
Teeth53 reargued that " ThaiBev (Y92.SG) and TCC Assets, with a combined 90.3% (F& N stake), have until July 19 to restore the free float." I answered:
Because the Combined % from largest amounted to 90.3%, the biggest beneficial will be ThaiBev and TCC Assets.
The next will be remaining 9.7% of market will still benefit. Strategic review is meant for future operating, and Unlocking value likely to happen in near-term.(Accurately predict Unlocking Value before it happen)
Teeth53 reargued that Myanmar military issue & Disposal of APB issue, I reanswered:
If NAV is $8.80, why do largest shareholder buy at $9.50?
If largest shareholder do not have confident business in F& N's benefits will cover $9.50, he wouldn't be buying.
So at even the current price of $5.80, you are still buying lesser than the largest shareholder. (Accurately predict F& N rising Value before it happen) If largest shareholder have nothing to fear, why should minor shareholder fear?
The theory is simple, the largest shareholder combined percentage hit 90%. Do you think the remaining 10% will affect the outcome? The profitability depends on largest shareholder's decision, and it will be imminent unlocking of value 2 FCL begins before public buying take place. (Accurately predict when F& N buying take place before it happen)
17 Nov- I reemphasized that:
This battle is not player vs player, as merely 10%. Its a battle Combined 2 Shareholders (90%) taking steps to improve their value, & unlocking further potential to benefit them (they are biggest beneficial), thereby also benefiting the small shareholders (10%)
BondHolders are merely lending money, Shareholders got enough fund from retained earning to give them back. If you are not aware, Cash Earning is almost 1 billion a year. For 2014 dividend of 0.12, approximately 2 billion had been for forkout from retained earning to distribute to shareholder.
Teeth, as you refused the truth that giving of 2FCL, but it will be imminent. (Accurately predict 2FCL issuing will be imminent before it happens)
Mr. Charoen intends to reduce his stake to a range to 88%, from 90.3% currently. (Accurately predict reduction Charoen will reduce stake to 88%)
To comply with SGX rule for listing FCL in which 12% must be obtained in the hands of public.
So situation now is
Public: 9.7%
Buyer-Charoen sold to: 2.3%
Mr Charoen: 88%
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304799404579152810197413736
Fraser and Neave is looking to buy back or redeem S$808.25 million worth of bonds. (Event of BondBuying intention was announced which was predicted previously)
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/f-n-bondholders-face/884288.html
The consent exercise for F& N bondholders ends on Tuesday, and there are six bonds the company wants to redeem. If bondholders fail to approve the spin-off and the company proceeds with it, this would trigger a technical default and allow creditors to demand immediate repayment of the bonds at par value. The situation is also complicated as there are six different tranches of bonds at stake
My Opinion: BondHolder issue can be resolved by $$$. (I firmly hold my prediction)
Whether or not BondHolder approve, F& N can proceed by redeeming back the bonds by payment back immediately.
BondHolder can delay the listing of 2 FCL, but cannot impact the outcome. (I predicted the future)
Ultimately, if bondholders disagree. BondHolder can sue, but F& N can buy back bonds at par value.
In the end, it won't do BondHolder good, as interest is missed out.
Currently, the stock of F& N is precious as only 9.7% is owned by public.
This determines only small % of people will benefit from this spinoff, however it is not impossible for those who have position in F& N. (I predicted who will benefits from F& N spinoff)
My prediction is that those who buy F& N, will gain sustain benefits once the spinoff of 2FCL begins.
1 F& N + 2 FCL 's value is certainly to be more than $6. (I predicted the future value)
FYI: $6 is only a minimum line.
I already have the value of 1 F& N + 2 FCL in mind. I will not speak off, as it up to different people holding 1 F& N & 2 FCL to decide, at what time is best and most appropriate to sell. It can stretch way further than $6, depends on how you strategize these 3 stocks @ what time.
Kindly note all my information is used as reference, & not to be used in anybody buy or sell.
He is forced to reduce, not he intend to reduce. Because listing of FCL will require 12% to be maintained in hands of Public. Thus 90.3% to 88% is confirm. (I give assurance before announcement was made on 12 Dec)
18 Nov-
There is one other point worth noting: The revelation by F& N chairman Lee Hsien Yang, together with board members Timothy Chia, Tan Chong Meng and Nicky Tan, that they plan to hold onto their shares unless Charoen?s offer turns unconditional. All these suggest that even at S$8.88 a share, there may still be value to be unlocked in F& N shares.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/More-value-to-be-unlocked-in-F& N-shares-30192217.html
1 Dec-
FYI: 100%-12%= 88% (Maximum he can hold)
His total state 90.3% to 88% (Difference 2.3%)
He is forced to reduce, not he intend to reduce. Because listing of FCL will require 12% to be maintained in hands of Public. Thus 90.3% to 88% is confirm. (I re-give assurance before announcement was made on 12 Dec)
Out of 5 bondholders, only 2 bondholders opposed.
On 29 Nov, a re-meeting is scheduled & F& N fully paid the 2 bondholders with interests.
So now, bond issue are resolved on 29 Nov.(Prediction of Future Event Actualized)
4 Dec- i foresee huge room for F& N share price to grow..(Prediction of Future Share Price Growth)
- The 2 FCL waiting to be released
- The 2014 dividend waiting to be released
- Hospital Trusts waiting to be released
The decision of biggest shareholders will be a key to F& N share price.
6 Dec- Hospital Trust would be in 2014 onward, as details haven't been covered by largest shareholder yet.
This will most likely add value to the earnings of F& N. If to give to shareholder, it is up to largest shareholder's decision.
11 Dec- F& N destiny depends on biggest shareholder decision. Unlocking of 2 FCL should be expedited to serve shareholders well. (Prediction of 2FCL to be expedited before it happen for best value)
12 Dec- The biggest shareholder, CHAROEN, had finally reduced total share to 87.93%, allowing 12% public float for the listing of 2 FCL. It is wise that 2 FCL be as fast as possible to implement to create the best, & highest profit valuation of F& N + 2 FCL. It is best to be implemented within 1 week from today.(Prediction of best valuation but largest shareholder was a bit later)
14 Dec- It is best the largest shareholder announce the implementation 2 FCL swiftly. Any delay will affect the overall valuation & Any swift implementation will bring the overall valuation to the best valuation.
18 Dec- F& N overall valuation continues to lie in the hands of largest shareholder.
There is hesitation as well as a need to implement release of 2 FCL- Duration of implementation will affect overall valuation. There is a possible trend of slowly recovering F& N price.
I continue to maintain my forecast of the value of 1 F& N + 2 FCL = $6/ Higher. Thus, F& N price remains a fairly attractive price. Among all the big cap stocks, F& N remains well positioned in market & is fairly solid with future potential value untapped.
24 Dec- It will be actualized soon. $6 is minimum as predicted, while the maximum is unknown.
As forecasted, & its potential is waiting to be shown. F& N remains the best among all big cap stocks.
Market closed at $5.97
My prediction (17 Nov)- Those who buy F& N, will gain sustain benefits once the spinoff of 2FCL begins. 1 F& N + 2 FCL 's value is certainly to be more than $6.
26 Dec Closing- F& N closed at $6.20
27 Dec before market open- I forecasted F& N share price to rise higher
27 Dec Closing- F& N closed at $6.38
Updated of a clearer & shorter version
F& N prediction of Event Unfolding before it happens:
11 Nov- F& N closed
at $5.77.
I forecasted that market default doesn't affect anything. As more
bondholders resist, the more attractive F& N stock appears to
shareholders. Because of the switch acquisition by Charoen, he unlocked
the profitability in the F & N and distributed to all shareholders. [At
this point, a lot people feared if F& N will default?]
14 Nov- I reemphasized that I can't find a better person
than Charoen. Profits are shared.
Look at VardHolding, & its a different case. After acquisition, no
dividend.
16 Nov- I debated with Teeth53 & provided valuable
information.
One of the biggest shareholder, Charoen, is just restructuring its debts due to
paid at $9.50 at the price when buying F & N shares. The issuance of 2 FCL
shares per F& N share, is to increase Charoen value & thereby also
increasing shareholders value.Bondholders resistance will be little of significant
as 100% of all shareholders passed meeting of issuing 2 FCL per F& N share.
(2 Days Later from my 11 Nov Prediction)
Do you think 2 FCL + 1 F& N share
will be less or more than current price? (I give hints but nobody
took it seriously)
Despite several persistence by Teeth53, I reanswered:
The market only holds % lower than biggest shareholders. Majority% still lies
in biggest shareholders. If vested players, consist of minor shareholding %
battling out, while future value being
unlocked is imminent.
Who will benefit most?
Teeth53 argued on the debt restricting, I answered:
Debt restructure is the debt F& N boss loaned to buy. The basic structure
of beverage, property, printing remains intact and is profitable. The bone you
talking about is the spliting of FCL, while the meat remains intact (FCL &
Beverage + Printing) at shareholders hands. As FCL + F& N still belongs to shareholders. It only undermine
bondholders. Overall, value unlocked means profitability
to F& N boss and Shareholders.
Teeth53 questioned another volatile in play?, I answered:
The market will not be a deciding factor.
The F& N boss's decision will.
The value of F& N is going to be unlocked, and the future prospect will
depend on how majority of F& N biggest boss and majority of FCL biggest
boss manage their business. F& N will probably try restructure
bondholders by paying them $$$ and discontinue loan (Prediction before happen), thus reducing company loans. In share,
majority of shareholders have biggest say but not bondholders.
Teeth53 reargued that " ThaiBev
(Y92.SG) and TCC Assets, with a combined 90.3%
(F& N stake), have until July 19 to restore the free float."
I answered:
Because the Combined % from largest amounted to 90.3%, the biggest beneficial
will be ThaiBev and TCC Assets.
The next will be remaining 9.7% of market will still benefit. Strategic review is meant for future
operating, and Unlocking value likely to happen in near-term. (Accurately
predict Unlocking Value before it happen)
Teeth53 reargued that Myanmar military issue & Disposal of APB issue, I
reanswered:
If NAV is $8.80, why do largest shareholder buy at $9.50?
If largest shareholder do not have confident business in F& N's benefits
will cover $9.50, he wouldn't be buying.
So at even the current price of $5.80, you
are still buying lesser than the largest shareholder. (Accurately
predict F& N rising Value before it happen) If largest shareholder have nothing to fear,
why should minor shareholder fear?
The theory is simple, the largest shareholder combined percentage hit 90%. Do
you think the remaining 10% will affect the outcome? The profitability
depends on largest shareholder's decision, and it will be imminent unlocking of value 2 FCL begins before public buying take
place. (Accurately predict F& N buying take place
before it happen)
17 Nov- I reemphasized that:
This battle is not player vs player, as merely 10%. Its a
battle Combined 2 Shareholders (90%) taking steps to improve their value,
& unlocking further potential to benefit them (they are biggest beneficial),
thereby also benefiting the small
shareholders (10%)
BondHolders are merely lending money, Shareholders got enough fund from
retained earning to give them back. If you are not aware, Cash Earning is
almost 1 billion a year. For 2014 dividend of 0.12, approximately 2 billion had
been for forkout from retained earning to distribute to shareholder.
Teeth, as you refused the truth that giving
of 2FCL, but it will be imminent. (Accurately predict 2FCL
issuing will be without question before it happens)
Mr. Charoen intends to reduce his stake
to a range to 88%, from 90.3% currently. (Accurately predict
reduction Charoen will reduce stake to 88%)
To comply with SGX rule for listing FCL in which 12% must be obtained in the
hands of public.
So situation now is
Public: 9.7%
Buyer-Charoen sold to: 2.3%
Mr Charoen: 88%
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304799404579152810197413736
Fraser and Neave is looking to buy back
or redeem S$808.25 million worth of bonds. (Event of BondBuying intention
was announced which was predicted previously)
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/f-n-bondholders-face/884288.html
The consent exercise for F& N bondholders ends on Tuesday, and there are six bonds the company wants to redeem.
If bondholders fail to approve the spin-off and the company proceeds with it,
this would trigger a technical default and allow creditors to demand immediate
repayment of the bonds at par value. The situation is also complicated as there
are six different tranches of bonds at stake
My Opinion: BondHolder issue can be
resolved by $$$. (I firmly hold my prediction)
Whether or not
BondHolder approve, F& N can proceed by redeeming back the bonds by payment
back immediately.
BondHolder can delay the
listing of 2 FCL, but cannot impact the outcome. (I predicted
the future)
Ultimately, if bondholders disagree. BondHolder can sue, but F& N can
buy back bonds at par value.
In the end, it won't do BondHolder good, as interest is missed out.
Currently, the stock of F& N is precious as only 9.7% is owned by
public.
This determines only small % of people
will benefit from this spinoff, however it is not impossible for those who
have position in F& N. (I predicted who will benefits from F& N
spinoff)
My prediction is that those who buy F& N, will gain sustain benefits once the spinoff of 2FCL begins.
1 F& N + 2 FCL 's value is certainly
to be more than $6. (I predicted the future value)
FYI: $6 is only a minimum line.
I already have the value of 1 F& N + 2 FCL in
mind. I will not speak off, as it up to different people holding 1 F& N
& 2 FCL to decide, at what time is best and most appropriate to sell. It
can stretch way further than $6,
depends on how you strategize these 3 stocks @ what time.
Kindly note all my information is used as reference, & not to be used in
anybody buy or sell.
He is forced to reduce, not he intend to reduce. Because listing of FCL will
require 12% to be maintained in hands of Public. Thus 90.3% to 88% is confirm. (I
give assurance before announcement was made on 12 Dec)
18 Nov-
There is one other point worth noting: The revelation by F& N chairman Lee Hsien Yang, together with board members Timothy
Chia, Tan Chong Meng and Nicky Tan, that they plan to hold onto their shares
unless Charoen?s offer turns unconditional. All these suggest that even at
S$8.88 a share, there may still be value to be unlocked in F& N
shares.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/More-value-to-be-unlocked-in-F&
N-shares-30192217.html
1 Dec-
FYI: 100%-12%= 88% (Maximum he can hold)
His total state 90.3% to 88% (Difference 2.3%)
He is forced to reduce, not he intend to reduce. Because listing of FCL will
require 12% to be maintained in hands of Public. Thus 90.3% to 88% is confirm. (I re-give
assurance before announcement was made on 12 Dec)
Out of 5 bondholders, only 2 bondholders opposed.
On 29 Nov, a re-meeting is scheduled & F& N fully paid the 2 bondholders with interests.
So now, bond issue are resolved on 29 Nov.(Prediction of Future Event Actualized)
4 Dec- i foresee huge
room for F& N share price to grow..(Prediction
of Future Share Price Growth)
- The 2 FCL waiting to be released
- The 2014 dividend waiting to be released
- Hospital Trusts waiting to be released
The decision of biggest shareholders will be a key to F& N share price.
6 Dec- Hospital Trust would be in 2014 onward, as details
haven't been covered by largest shareholder yet.
This will most likely add value to the earnings of F& N. If to give to
shareholder, it is up to largest shareholder's decision.
11 Dec- F& N destiny depends on biggest shareholder decision. Unlocking of 2 FCL should be expedited
to serve shareholders well. (Prediction of 2FCL to be expedited before it
happen for best value)
12 Dec- The biggest shareholder, CHAROEN, had finally reduced total
share to 87.93%, allowing 12% public float for the listing of 2 FCL. It is wise
that 2 FCL be as fast as possible to implement to create the best,
& highest profit valuation of F& N + 2 FCL. It is best to be
implemented within 1 week from today. (Prediction of best
valuation but largest shareholder was a bit later)
14 Dec- It is best the largest shareholder announce the implementation 2
FCL swiftly. Any delay will affect the overall valuation & Any swift implementation will bring the
overall valuation to the best valuation.
18 Dec- F& N overall valuation continues to lie in the hands
of largest shareholder.
There is hesitation as well as a need to implement release of 2 FCL- Duration
of implementation will affect overall valuation. There is a possible
trend of slowly recovering F& N price.
I continue to maintain my forecast of the value of 1 F&
N + 2 FCL = $6/ Higher. Thus,
F& N price remains a fairly attractive price. Among all the big cap stocks, F& N
remains well positioned in market & is fairly solid with future potential
value untapped.
24 Dec- It will be actualized soon. $6 is minimum as predicted,
while the maximum is unknown.
As forecasted, & its
potential is waiting to be shown. F& N remains the best among all big cap stocks.
Market closed at $5.97
My prediction (17 Nov)- Those who buy F& N, will gain sustain
benefits once the spinoff of 2FCL begins. 1 F& N + 2 FCL 's value
is certainly to be more than $6.
26 Dec Closing- F& N closed at $6.20
27 Dec before market open- I forecasted F& N share price to rise higher
27 Dec Closing- F& N closed at $6.38
Price very difficult to predict
for F& N N FCL (low liquidity)
depend on Char.../Thai Bv also Market sentiment
my view most likely F& N=S$1.35-S$1.45
FCL=S$2.80-S$3.00
as lots off events will be unfold 2014 for F& N(Time Pub once listed in sgx)/Thai Bv
N FCL
LOL
The answer is near & in future.
There is a simple saying: " Those that are fated to profit from F& N will make profits, while those that are not fated will not"
If you make your own evaluation of price, then stick by your evaluation.
However, i have my own set of evaluation price.
i_love_girls ( Date: 28-Dec-2013 07:38) Posted:
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MetalTrader ( Date: 28-Dec-2013 02:13) Posted:
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i_love_girls ( Date: 27-Dec-2013 23:04) Posted:
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A few questions:
1) Opening price for FCL: Wouldn't FCL have only 12% free float upon listing? If that is so, due to its low liquidity, shouldn't supply outstrip demand i.e. push up the opening price. On the other hand, although NAV of FCL is $2.04, this is not a good indicator of how FCL will open on its first day. Most property counters trade at a discount to its NAV, don't they? If that is the case, what is the market expecting it to open?
2) XE price of FNN: If the opening price of FCL is uncertain, how will this be factored into the XE price of FNN on Mon? Also, I believe NAV is not a good indicator here. This is further complicated by the 12c dividend coming in Feb as well as the impending capital reduction exercise.
Any experts out there can enlighten me on the above?
danytan ( Date: 27-Dec-2013 22:10) Posted:
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When both stocks trade separately, in fact, we might also get to see some strong buys or sells depending on how investors view each individual stock, namely frasers centre point or F and N . A few possibilities may occur. (1) investors keen to only invest in one of the above securities and have chose not to invest previously in F and N before entitlement may choose to enter after XE, which may indicate strong buys. (2) investors currently invested and hold after XE may decide to continue to hold or to do portfolio adjustments by either selling all of their f and n shares or divest in one stock to put money into another, depending on which stock they are confidence of holding.
Thus, there is possible further upside to current f and n stock price. As for after XE, I expect corporate activities to continue to drive stock prices in the medium term, where frasers centre point look forward to its commercial listing and it's beverage listed stock looks towards expanding its business through acquisitions, as spelt out earlier in their circular for the purpose of having two separately listed investment vehicles in the first place dated earlier this year
i_love_girls ( Date: 27-Dec-2013 19:35) Posted:
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In theory, I don't think you should add the 42c as NAV after Ex of the capital reduction (CR) will be reduced to $ 1.275
See July 13 after ex of the CR of $3.28 , F& N share px also dropped accordingly.
stockseeker ( Date: 27-Dec-2013 16:01) Posted:
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WanSiTong ( Date: 27-Dec-2013 13:55) Posted:
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WanSiTong ( Date: 27-Dec-2013 15:14) Posted:
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WanSiTong ( Date: 27-Dec-2013 14:29) Posted:
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