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Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam to announce formal withdrawal of the extradition bill, meeting at least one key demand of protesters

 

 

What seems unlikely less than 3 months ago..................

Luzern      ( Date: 12-Jun-2019 13:22) Posted: Repost for my easy reference........ ..... ....................................................................................... I hope the Hong Kong protestors do not push their luck too far.  Else this has the potential (currently very unlikely) to escalate into some serious violent confrontation and bloody crackdown.  The Central Government' s patient this time round  with this kind of show of dis-unity with the Mainland will be shorter in the face of an escalating US China trade war where internal unity is critical. The protestors should look out for sign of a possible crackdown.  ........When your social media connections starts failing or stop working is one of the sign. IMO, DYODD. Luzern      ( Date: 12-Jun-2019 12:48) Posted: Keeping an eye on the Hong Kong protest.  This has the potential to seriously damage Hong Kong' s business should the protest turn violent and ending with a crackdown.  Hong Kong has been prosperiing post 1997 by the grace of China.  That prosperity can be gone faster than one would think possible if China so decides.  https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/hong-kong-protests-june-12-intl-hnk/index.html IMO, DYODD

 

Singapore bank lending drops in July as home loans shrink further: MAS preliminary data

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/singapore-bank-lending-drops-in-july-as-home-loans-shrink-further-mas-preliminary

 

Looking at what is currently on the " table" althought chance of Trump implementing the 1st September tariff has fallen, it' s however, still more likely that the tariffs will be implemented on 1st september.  What Trump can do is to  on-hold the additional tariffs to be implemented on 1st Oct 2019 (China' s 70th Anniversary) as a good will gesture. 

IMO.

 

A statement from China that promises not much, mis-understood by the Western media and played up by Trump.  Suddenly from doom and gloom to " can see light" . 

The China is testing Trump.  They know Trump is wavering.

Trump needs a confident boost from Fed or from someone who is highly regarded in the Chinese way of doing " things" . 

IMO.

 

1) First its 10% on US$300B on 1st Sept 2019
2) then Apple make noise, companies make noise, tariff become 10% on US$125B on 1st sept, the rest on effective on 15th Dec.
3) China devalues Yuan
4) China retaliates with US$75B tariff (5% to 10%)
5) Trump change 10% tariff to 15% and plan to increase the imposed  tariffs of 25% on US$250B to 30% on 1st Oct.  Trump also becomes edgy and make exaggerated claims of talks/calls with China...which China denies.
6) Trump make peace with EU
7) China make passing comment that they will Not retaliates (for the moment)  on the NEWEST Tariffs (I read this as the addiyional 5% on the US$300B and the US$250B instead of the 15% effective on 1st Sept). 
8) Western Media and Trump (mis-guided?) play-up the market on this seemingly promised nothing statement from China.
9) Trump claim of trade talk at a " different level" today........(I read this different level as lower level communications via phone or e-mails)


Item 2,5,6,8,9  shows Trump not steady.  IMO.

 

U.S business groups urge Trump to postpone further China tariff hike

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-business/us-business-groups-urge-trump-to-postpone-further-china-tariff-hike-idUSKCN1VI25R

 

 

Chinese military' s move into Hong Kong before sunrise  " was routine annual rotation"

 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-25/trump-has-the-power-china-debt-fears-u-s-japan-deal-eco-day

"Two top White House officials said President Donald Trump has the authority to force American companies to leave China -- as he claims, and which trade experts question -- yet whether he invokes those powers is another question

Meantime, the foreign debt built up by Chinese companies is about a third bigger than official data show, adding to the pressure on the country?s currency reserves as a wave of repayment obligations approaches in 2020"

 

Week of 19 August 2019
Institutional investors net sell (-S$96.4m) vs. (-S$51.9m) a week ago
Retail investors net buy (+S$128.9m) vs. (+S$188.4m) a week ago
Top 10 Institution Net Buy (+) Stocks (S$M)	Stock Code	Week of 19 Aug	Top 10 Institution Net Sell (-) Stocks (S$M)	Stock Code	Week of 19 Aug
Thai Beverage	Y92	25.1	DBS	D05	(73.5)
Singtel	Z74	21.5	UOB	U11	(30.6)
Mapletree Commercial Trust	N2IU	13.4	Keppel Corporation	BN4	(24.3)
Hotel Properties	H15	11.0	Yangzijiang Shipbuilding	BS6	(24.2)
Suntec REIT	T82U	10.5	OCBC	O39	(20.8)
Wilmar International	F34	10.2	SIA	C6L	(13.9)
ComfortDelGro	C52	8.4	Sembcorp Industries	U96	(6.3)
City Developments	C09	5.9	Genting Singapore	G13	(5.9)
Jardine Matheson	J36	4.6	ST Engineering	S63	(5.5)
NetLink NBN Trust	CJLU	4.1	UOL Group	U14	(4.5)
Top 10 Retail Net Buy (+) Stocks (S$M)	Stock Code	Week of 19 Aug	Top 10 Retail Net Sell (-) Stocks (S$M)	Stock Code	Week of 19 Aug
DBS	D05	51.8	Thai Beverage	Y92	(26.1)
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding	BS6	37.6	Hotel Properties	H15	(11.0)
OCBC	O39	31.0	SGX	S68	(9.4)
UOB	U11	22.3	Singtel	Z74	(5.3)
Keppel Corporation	BN4	21.9	City Developments	C09	(4.0)
ST Engineering	S63	9.3	Wilmar International	F34	(4.0)
Sembcorp Industries	U96	7.9	Ascott Residence Trust	A68U	(3.3)
SIA	C6L	7.3	Keppel Infrastructure Trust	A7RU	(2.9)
SPH	T39	3.7	Genting Singapore	G13	(2.8)
Venture Corporation	V03	2.8	Ascendas Hospitality Trust	Q1P	(2.8)
Source: Singapore Exchange

 

Tide Goes Out for China' s Skinny-Dipping Banks

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-25/china-bank-earnings-likely-to-suffer-on-accounting-change?srnd=premium-asia


 

 

Harvard&rsquo s Reinhart Warns Hong Kong Could Trigger World Recession

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-23/harvard-s-reinhart-warns-hong-kong-could-trigger-world-recession




 

 

Many Chinese companies &lsquo will go bankrupt&rsquo , if US delivers on tariff threats, court newspaper warns

 

 

Next US tariffs to drag China expansion below 6% for slowest growth since 1990, survey shows

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/next-us-tariffs-to-drag-china-expansion-below-6-for-slowest-growth-since-1990

 

China&rsquo s enormous debt &lsquo no longer can be ignored,&rsquo analyst says

• Fraser Howie, an independent analyst, told CNBC:  &ldquo China is very much past the tipping point where the debt simply no longer can be ignored.&rdquo
• The trade war has put a dent in efforts to pare its massive debt as Beijing sought ways to boost its slowing economy, which was at its lowest growth in 27 years this year.
• In what some analysts called effectively a rate cut, the People&rsquo s Bank of China also this week  launched a key interest rate reform  &mdash the loan prime rate &mdash that would make borrowing costs for companies cheaper.
• But Howie told CNBC that the issue was really whether there would be demand for more credit

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/23/chinas-debt-levels-amid-its-slowing-economy.html




 

 

1) Powell speaks at 1000hrs US Time at jackson Hole
2) 1st September 2019 (Sunday) US 10% Tariff.
3) HK issue was rumoured to have a dateline in early September.  If the protesters are smart, they should halt any further protest (after this weekend)  till after 1st Oct 2019.

 

Week of 12 August 2019
Institutional investors net sell (-S$51.9m) vs. (-S$171.7m) a week ago
Retail investors net buy (+S$188.4m) vs. (+S$271.9m) a week ago
Top 10 Institution Net Buy (+) Stocks (S$M)	Stock Code	Week of 12 Aug	Top 10 Institution Net Sell (-) Stocks (S$M)	Stock Code	Week of 12 Aug
SGX	S68	42.6	OCBC	O39	(70.3)
Singtel	Z74	27.5	UOB	U11	(24.5)
Thai Beverage	Y92	17.6	Yangzijiang Shipbuilding	BS6	(20.3)
CapitaLand Commercial Trust	C61U	17.6	Keppel Corporation	BN4	(20.2)
CapitaLand Mall Trust	C38U	12.3	ComfortDelGro	C52	(17.6)
Frasers Logistics & Industrial Trust	BUOU	6.6	Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust	RW0U	(14.9)
Mapletree Logistics Trust	M44U	6.1	SIA	C6L	(10.2)
Venture Corporation	V03	5.4	DBS	D05	(9.7)
NetLink NBN Trust	CJLU	5.4	Wilmar International	F34	(9.4)
Keppel REIT	K71U	5.2	ST Engineering	S63	(7.3)
Top 10 Retail Net Buy (+) Stocks (S$M)	Stock Code	Week of 12 Aug	Top 10 Retail Net Sell (-) Stocks (S$M)	Stock Code	Week of 12 Aug
OCBC	O39	94.2	SGX	S68	(35.0)
DBS	D05	45.4	Thai Beverage	Y92	(22.9)
UOB	U11	31.3	Singtel	Z74	(8.6)
Keppel Corporation	BN4	27.3	Venture Corporation	V03	(6.1)
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding	BS6	23.1	NetLink NBN Trust	CJLU	(5.1)
SIA	C6L	15.3	CapitaLand Mall Trust	C38U	(3.4)
ComfortDelGro	C52	14.4	Frasers Logistics & Industrial Trust	BUOU	(3.1)
ST Engineering	S63	8.7	Mapletree Commercial Trust	N2IU	(2.8)
Jardine Cycle & Carriage	C07	6.3	Sheng Siong Group	OV8	(2.8)
Hongkong Land	H78	4.3	Mapletree Logistics Trust	M44U	(2.7)
Source: Singapore Exchange

 

retails buying junk like sia. yang zj. genting.

Luzern      ( Date: 13-Aug-2019 11:09) Posted: --- Post Removed by User ---

 

Philippines cuts key rate as economy keeps slowing

Moves comes after India, Thailand and New Zealand eased on Wednesday

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Philippines-cuts-key-rate-as-economy-keeps-slowing

.........................................
rate cut 25bp as expected by analysts.


 

 

DBS, OCBC or UOB: Which Singapore Bank is Least Exposed to China?

https://www.fool.sg/2019/06/17/dbs-ocbc-or-uob-which-singapore-bank-is-least-exposed-to-china/
 

DBS Group

The largest Singapore bank, DBS, has a well-known presence in Hong Kong and Greater China, with its businesses there (particularly in the former) having helped drive growth in recent years. As at the end of the first quarter of 2019, DBS had total gross loans of S$351.8 billion. By country/region that the bank breaks down its loans by, Hong Kong + Rest of Greater China made up S$54.6 billion and S$51.5 billion, respectively, of the total. That means out of the above loan book of S$351.8 billion, DBS has a total of    S$106.1 billion  in exposure to what can be classified as & ldquo China& rdquo loans & ndash equating to around    30%  of its loan book.

OCBC

OCBC is Singapore& rsquo s second-largest bank, by market capitalisation, and also owns a well-known wealth management arm Bank of Singapore. OCBC& rsquo s overall loans as of the end of the first quarter 2019 totaled S$259 billion. Of this amount,    S$63 billion  were classed as loans to Greater China & ndash meaning its total exposure is around    24.3%    of its loan book.

UOB

Finally, we have the third Singapore bank UOB. It is generally known as a bank with a stronger focus on Singapore and Southeast Asia rather than Hong Kong/China. This is also borne out by the numbers. As of the end of the first quarter of 2019, out of a total of S$270 billion in loans by UOB, only    S$43 billion  were classified as loans to Greater China. That means UOB& rsquo s total China exposure was approximately    16%  of its loan book

 

With Yuan weakening, Chinese companies with USD denominated debts will find it harder to service their loans.  This logically should push up the numbers of debt defaults in China.

IMO
...............................................
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-finance/china-has-a-dangerous-dollar-debt-addiction
 

 

CHINA' S foreign debt has been rising rapidly, and that' s becoming an increasingly big problem -  for the country and, potentially, the world.

Officially, China lists its outstanding external debt  at US$1.9 trillion. For a US$13 trillion economy, that' s not a major amount. But  focusing on the headline number  significantly understates the underlying risks. Short-term debt accounted for 62 per cent of the total as of September, according to official data, meaning that US$1.2 trillion will have to be rolled over this year. Just as worrying is the speed of increase: total external debt has increased 14 per cent in the past year and 35 per cent since the beginning of 2017. External debt is no longer a trivial slice of China' s foreign-exchange reserves, which stood at just over US$3 trillion at the end of November, little changed from two years earlier. Short-term foreign debt increased to 39  per cent of reserves in September, from 26 per cent in March 2016.

The true picture may be more precarious.  China' s external debt was estimated at between US$3 trillion and US$3.5 trillion by Daiwa Capital Markets in an August report. In other words, total foreign liabilities could be understated by as much as US$1.5 trillion after accounting for borrowing in financial centres such as Hong Kong, New York and the Caribbean islands that isn' t included in the official tally.

Circumstances aren' t moving in China' s favour. The nation' s companies rushed to borrow in dollars when there was a 3 per cent to 5 per cent spread between Chinese and US interest rates  and the yuan was expected to strengthen. Borrowing offshore was cheaper and offered the additional bonus of likely currency gains.

Now, the spread in official short-term yields has shrunk to near zero and the yuan has been depreciating for most of the past year. Refinancing debt in dollars has become harder, and more risky. Beijing' s policies have exacerbated the buildup of foreign debt.

 

To promote Xi Jinping' s Belt and Road Initiative, the president' s landmark foreign policy endeavour, China has been borrowing dollars on international markets and lending around the world for everything from Kenyan railways to Pakistani business parks.

New set of problems

With this year and 2020 being the peak years for repayments, China faces dollar funding pressure. To repay their dollar debts, Chinese firms will either have to draw from the central bank' s foreign-exchange reserves (a prospect Beijing is unlikely to allow) or buy dollars on international markets. This creates a  new set of problems. There are only 617 billion yuan (US$122 billion) of offshore renminbi deposits in Hong Kong available to buy dollars. If China was to push firms to bring debt back onshore, this would necessitate significant outflows that would push down the yuan' s value against the dollar.

International dollar investors need to be wary of Chinese-linked investments. Local government financing vehicles and belt-and-road borrowers may seem quasi-sovereign quality, but any shift in the willingness to roll over dollar debt could create a funding crunch. With the US Federal Reserve raising rates and reducing its balance sheet, Chinese companies could face paying more for capital in dollars than in yuan.

Bulls have long argued that China' s financial risks are contained because of the country' s low levels of external debt and large foreign-exchange reserves. That has changed. China' s external debt has been increasing by an average of US$70 billion per quarter since the beginning of 2017.  If it keeps rising, Beijing will have the unpalatable choice of burning through its reserves or letting the yuan fall, both of which would carry additional risks. China and the world need to think clearly about this growing dollar debt dependence. Any cessation of funding could have severe and unforeseen consequences. BLOOMBERG
 

 

If this is the best solution they can come up with, then IMO, can expect more violent this coming weekend in HK.

IMO, DYODD
.........................................................................

Business elite and pro-Beijing politicians meet officials from mainland& rsquo s Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office in Shenzhen to rally support for SAR& rsquo s prosperity and stability