Halcyon Agri    Last:0.41   -

Hidden Gem

This is a high entry barrier business. Needs huge scale and long gestation period. Such commodity is irreplaceable. Time to accumulate. Price now is way below book value. A steal to collect. My views.

 

2nd result is extreme good but BB shorted to accumulate at low before result release, eg Wilmar

Shifu8888      ( Date: 16-Aug-2020 07:00) Posted: There are 3 types of stocks before results announcement: One type kept going up for Bb to offload when somehow Bb seems to know results were bad Second type kept going down when many expected the results to be bad. Results are bad and may knee jerk thereafter but eventually will go up as these had already been factored in. Third type is nothing happened before and after results

 

Net Cash generated from used in operation is 90 mil. Cash flow at 110mil which is quite strong cash flow. Wonder why they still want to issue the rights at 0.22. Forecast for next 6-9 months with vaccine out, operating profit will goes up. 

 

There are 3 types of stocks before results announcement:

One type kept going up for Bb to offload when somehow Bb seems to know results were bad

Second type kept going down when many expected the results to be bad. Results are bad and may knee jerk thereafter but eventually will go up as these had already been factored in.

Third type is nothing happened before and after results

 

Quite a disappointing set of 1H20 results, expected but the loss was quite substantial at US$40.4m while operating loss itself was US$29.4m. Company mentioned that they are optimistic with the future but guess that is a motherhood statement for some saving grace?

KennySP      ( Date: 15-Aug-2020 23:03) Posted: This Stock is keep going down and never see any improvement at all.........cant wait any longer liao. Plainning to sale it be4 getting worse.

 

This Stock is keep going down and never see any improvement at all.........cant wait any longer liao. Plainning to sale it be4 getting worse.

 

Thanks for the sharing have also noticed STA from other thread just thought this is quite a battered stock and TSR20 rubber prices/futures have picked up quite substantially in recent weeks. May see it translate to players with upstream exposure such as Halcyon and STA. With recent rights issue at 22c, thought we might see support at that level but don' t look like it. 

Just a speculative hypothesis - noticed that Sinochem had replaced the angmoh CEO and directors while replacing those roles with their Chinese directors. Any chance of a privatisation with a low-ball offer since they own majority of the company anyway?

 

 

bro, divest plan was in talking point since 2013 as i recall, talk n talk.

limjoeseph      ( Date: 10-Aug-2020 11:07) Posted: Just for your info, Sinochem the majority share holder has always wanted to divest Halcyon at the price of $0.75 1 to 2 years back. I hear this company is struggling to survive. A better bet is Sri Trang Agro which has the best of both world of rubber business and gloves business and expected to report decent profits at 14 August financial reporting. Target price for a 12 months time frame at 42 Baht in july report released by UOB. Please refer to Sr Trang 1.20 IPO share junction blog for more info posted by bloggers. Last traded close price at 28.50 Baht. Many new revision to target prices by analysts of brokerage houses and banks in the cards after 14 August results.

 

STA Sing target price by UOB at S$1.84 but the last close at S$1.31.

 

Just for your info, Sinochem the majority share holder has always wanted to divest Halcyon at the price of $0.75 1 to 2 years back. I hear this company is struggling to survive. A better bet is Sri Trang Agro which has the best of both world of rubber business and gloves business and expected to report decent profits at 14 August financial reporting. Target price for a 12 months time frame at 42 Baht in july report released by UOB. Please refer to Sr Trang 1.20 IPO share junction blog for more info posted by bloggers. Last traded close price at 28.50 Baht. Many new revision to target prices by analysts of brokerage houses and banks in the cards after 14 August results.

 

I think the key issue is the rubber price. so far not moving north steep enough. Not sure about their cost, maybe still higher than selling price. A lot of chinese investor tab company of raw supplier to boost the price of share in China, sell cheap to the kaki in china. Let' s see what this guy do, but i do see ppl collecting, not sure BB or retail.

n3wbie      ( Date: 09-Aug-2020 21:43) Posted: Share price is currently very close to its rights issue price, will that be a support level or...? Shareholder value has been eroded day after day despite this being one of the world' s largest rubber player - will the Chinese owners do anything about it?

 

Share price is currently very close to its rights issue price, will that be a support level or...? Shareholder value has been eroded day after day despite this being one of the world' s largest rubber player - will the Chinese owners do anything about it?

 

Tmr Confirmed won't chiong. 😂

KennySP      ( Date: 09-Aug-2020 20:13) Posted: Standby and see tomorrow can cheong bo!!

 

Standby and see tomorrow can cheong bo!!
 

 

continue: S$1.83 thereabout but I personally endorse outperform for STA for the rest of the year but with a fibonacci 1.618% extension at S$3.22 by 1st half of 2021 as I view the rise in rubber prices basing out this year besides the virus trajectory to continue giving hige earnings for STGT gloves every quarter.

 

STA being a parent company owns 100% of gloves division for 2nd quarters of 2020 reporting on august 14 which going to show big profits besides owning rubber including latex factories in Thailand and only rubber factories Indonesia and Burma. 2nd quarters profits potentially beating 1st quarter profits of US$26 million pants down. Projected profits will come from gloves divisions due to strong gloves demand being the 3rd largest global producer and the only public listed Thai gloves company in Thailand. Most probably 2nd quarter gloves profits will exceed 3 times of 1st quarter profits of US12 million due to worsening virus pandemic resulting in very strong demand for latex and nitrate gloves same as recent Top Gloves making US80 million for their 3rd quarters report for the period March to May which was 3 tomes more than their previous result. Thereafter STA spinned out their gloves division and listed in Thailand as STGT on July 2 IPO, STA will enjoy 56% of STGT net profits for every quarters reportingvespecially their book orders for gloves fully bought up for 1st half 2021 with above 15% ASP. Therefore STA is a better buy than Halcyon shares. Rest assured, from this coming quarters reporting on 14 August, STA will be a buy and hold stock as STA will be known as a rubber cum gloves stock as well whereas Halcyon is lnly a rubber stock only. Since the mkt wants to let you huat on STA, pl grab it lest you miss the boat. Target given out by UOB Kay Hian has objective of Thai STA at 42 Baht equivalent to

 

bro then sri also can buy? both rubber plays

Shifu8888      ( Date: 16-Jul-2020 11:52) Posted: Why a BUY call? 1. Products used in tyres. Prices suppressed due to low commodity rubber price. Due to Lockdown in many countries. Will come back when economy turnaround. 2. Products also used in condoms and gloves. Defensive industry. 3. Big names shareholder in it such as China SOE and some big funds eg Credence. 4. Discounted price now. Book price 50 cents. 5. Rights issue. Ex rights price $0.305. Mgt needs to make the price of mother shares attractive to incentivise shareholder to subscribe 6. News coming probably sub shareholder subscribing the rights, so far only main shareholder subscribing. 7. High barriers to entry. Rubber tree has Long gestation period. Demand will eventually catch up supplies. BUY before it runs. But need to hold for a while. My POV. Don scold me if lose money.

 

Halcyon will probably suffer 2nd quarters min. few million lossess as per reporting on 12 August. New MD will have to initiate overhaul of the company to prevent bigger lossess for the next few quarters. Overheads too overly high and new MD will have to effect cost cutting measures to staunch the bleeding. Underperform is my recommendation as debt load overly high. There is another better counter toninvest in which is Sri Trang Agro as will report net profits from every quarter onwards for the rest of the year until end 2021 due to contribution from Glove spinned off company STGT to enjoy 56% of their glove earnings every quarter from 3rd quarter report onwards. Highly undervalued with good potentential earnings forbthis coming 2nd quarter financial report on 14 August August. Better to HUAT from STA counter as expected to hit S$3.22 within 1st half of next year 2021 viewing Elliot Wave Fibonacci count of 1.618% extension. STA price yesterday close 1.31 with recent low of wave 2 pull back at the low of 1.03. Looking to break above 1.75 after 2nd quarters result which will probably exceed 1st quarters profit of 845 million Baht. Buy 1 week before report is out and you will not regret my out perform recommendation for the rest of the year. Looking at the recent Elliot Wave 1 which is 1.75. The last week low of 1.03 is the Wave 2 low. Now on the way to look forward to wave 3 up which pribably will climax at 3.22. Gloves fundamentals for the rest of this year until 1st half 2022 is strong as a result of worsening covid 19 virus spread and STGT will benefit from the himongous gloves demand thus giving support to STA earnings for the next few quarters. Besides STA counter has better liquidity than Halcyon.

 

Good morning guys.  Waiting for it to move again upwards..quite low now.
Any SHOUT OUT for this.

Cheers.

Vested.

Shifu8888      ( Date: 16-Jul-2020 11:52) Posted: Why a BUY call? 1. Products used in tyres. Prices suppressed due to low commodity rubber price. Due to Lockdown in many countries. Will come back when economy turnaround. 2. Products also used in condoms and gloves. Defensive industry. 3. Big names shareholder in it such as China SOE and some big funds eg Credence. 4. Discounted price now. Book price 50 cents. 5. Rights issue. Ex rights price $0.305. Mgt needs to make the price of mother shares attractive to incentivise shareholder to subscribe 6. News coming probably sub shareholder subscribing the rights, so far only main shareholder subscribing. 7. High barriers to entry. Rubber tree has Long gestation period. Demand will eventually catch up supplies. BUY before it runs. But need to hold for a while. My POV. Don scold me if lose money.

 

Waiting for this counter to fly also... going up in jerks and coming down fast also.. hope the BB' s work here also their magic.

Cheers.

Shifu8888      ( Date: 21-Jul-2020 10:49) Posted: This is the next to move....