https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/15/economy/us-china-key-issues-apec-summit-intl-hnk/index.html

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zlstt5EwzI

https://apnews.com/article/us-china-military-relations-339980a0d494bcde92905411838808a4

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NawYjWujTTU

https://theindependent.sg/monkeys-emerge-from-clementi-hdb-unit-looking-like-swat-team/

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRds49smhdY

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/11/16/asia-pacific/biden-xi-meeting-analysis/

 

https://tnp.straitstimes.com/news/singapore/resident-scared-monkeys-entering-petir-road-flat

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIVY0zRyYLM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HY2t6e3sSI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIVY0zRyYLM

https://www.asiaone.com/singapore/condo-resident-astonished-see-monkeys-15th-storey

 

so they will continue to create havoc in our living space

https://mothership.sg/2022/07/monkeys-hdb-flat/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VZRZLpyadM

 

soon we will need to train this monkeys to be cleaners security and painters to save cost

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Bm4-DZiDMg

 

it is not playing guitar we can solve this expensive situation now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vax2lckQDQY

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/O39.SI/history?p=O39.SI

 

$12.78 too tempting not to buy

With more market observers betting that the US Federal Reserve is done raising rates, there is a growing view that banks will no longer enjoy the bumper interest income they have had since the rate hikes started.
Nonetheless, Helen Wong, group CEO of Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC), expects the bank&rsquo s current net interest margins (NIMs) to hold steady through 1HFY2024 ending June 2024. Speaking at the release of the bank&rsquo s 3QFY2023 results on Nov 10, Wong thinks NIMs will stay &ldquo at current levels for the first half, barring unforeseen circumstances&rdquo .

OCBC would undoubtedly be happy if the bank&rsquo s current NIM could be maintained. The measure of net return on OCBC&rsquo s earning assets rose 21 basis points (bps) y-o-y to 2.27% in the most recent quarter. As a result, net interest income (NII) grew 17% y-o-y and 3% q-o-q to a record $2.46 billion, supported by 6% asset growth.
At 2.27%, OCBC&rsquo s NIM is 1 bp higher q-o-q, and FY2023 NIM is seen to be in the &ldquo 2.25% region&rdquo from &ldquo above 2.2%&rdquo . Speaking at the same results briefing, CFO Goh Chin Yee says the bank is being prudent, as it expects funding costs to increase near the year-end. In comparison, DBS and UOB reported group NIMs of 2.19% and 2.09% for the quarter, up 3 bps and down 3 bps q-o-q, respectively.
Despite higher rates, OCBC was still able to grow its loan book in constant currency terms by 1% y-o-y and q-o-q to $298 billion in 3QFY2023. Geopolitical tensions will continue to weigh on the global markets and, in turn, loan growth, warns Wong. As a result, OCBC has lowered its 2023 loan growth estimate to &ldquo low single-digit&rdquo from &ldquo low- to mid-single-digit&rdquo in the previous quarter.
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From Wong&rsquo s point of view, geopolitical tension remains &ldquo very unhealthy&rdquo and has weighed down on macroeconomic conditions and, by extension, demand for loans. &ldquo Before this quarter, we were talking about one war. Now, we&rsquo re talking about two wars around the world,&rdquo says Wong. &ldquo So, we do see loan demand to be quite muted trade loans are not doing very well because trade volume around the region has not rebounded as [much as] people have hoped for.&rdquo
Lower cost-to-income target
Meanwhile, OCBC says income growth outpaced the increase in operating expenses, which grew 5% y-o-y to $1.34 billion in 3QFY2023, owing to &ldquo continued investments in the group&rsquo s franchise across people and technology&rdquo , mainly from higher staff costs and IT-related expenditure.
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OCBC&rsquo s cost-to-income ratio (CIR) for the quarter fell to 39.1% from 42.2% in the preceding year but was up from 38.5% in 2QFY2023 and 37.1% in 1QFY2023. The bank has lowered its 2023 CIR target to &ldquo around 40%&rdquo from &ldquo the lower end of the 40% to 45% range&rdquo last quarter.
OCBC&rsquo s credit costs, or allowances for loans as a percentage of average loans, came in at an annualised 17 bps during the quarter, up 3 bps y-o-y but down 14 bps q-o-q. Total allowances grew 20% y-o-y to $184 million, which OCBC blamed on impaired assets that swelled from $52 million in 2QFY2023 to $220 million in the most recent quarter.
That said, 3QFY2023 allowances were 27% lower q-o-q, owing to a $36 million write-back in allowances for non-impaired assets compared to a $200 million charge in the previous quarter. The write-back included migration of allowances for non-impaired assets, which OCBC says was &ldquo prudently set aside in previous quarters&rdquo . OCBC&rsquo s non-performing loan ratio improved to 1.0% from 1.2% last year, while non-performing assets (NPA) fell 6% q-o-q to $3.1 billion. Allowance coverage for total NPA rose 8 percentage points (ppts) q-o-q and 31 ppts y-o-y to 139%.
&ldquo [On] the numerator, the allowances have remained fairly stable, but, in fact, it is the denominator that has come down,&rdquo says Collins Chin, OCBC&rsquo s head of investor relations. &ldquo That&rsquo s why allowance coverage has been going up &mdash largely due to the decline in NPA.&rdquo
DBS and Bank of Singapore, the private banking arm of OCBC, are among creditors to companies linked to individuals who were charged in August in a major money laundering scandal here. When asked, Wong says the bank has &ldquo insignificant&rdquo exposure and will make more allowances &ldquo as appropriate&rdquo .
Fee income rebound
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In 3QFY2023, OCBC posted a net profit of $1.81 billion, up 21% y-o-y and 6% q-o-q. Aside from NII, non-interest income grew 4% y-o-y but fell by 9% q-o-q to $0.97 billion. The y-o-y growth in non-interest income was supported by a rise in net fee income, up 2% y-o-y to $461 million, the highest in four quarters. That said, fee income has been on a decline since a pandemic-era peak of $585 million in 1QFY2021.
The higher fee income in 3QFY2023 was mainly due to higher wealth management (WM) fees from increased customer activities and higher credit card fees, says OCBC.
WM income for the most recent quarter rose 16% y-o-y to $1.12 billion, which made up 33% of the group&rsquo s income for the quarter. Assets under management, meanwhile, grew 8% y-o-y but fell 2% q-o-q to $270 billion at the end of September.
WM fees, which have traditionally been the largest contributor to OCBC&rsquo s fee income, contributed more than half (54.8%) of 1QFY2021 net fee income at $321 million. According to Chin, WM fees have been on a downtrend as the outlook for clients is &ldquo still risk-off, given the current climate&rdquo . &ldquo So, clients are still predominantly holding the bulk of their assets in cash.&rdquo
WM fees have also traditionally dipped every fourth quarter. &ldquo Seasonally, not just for us, but across the industry as well, [the] fourth quarter does seem to be a bit more soft compared maybe to the rest of the year,&rdquo adds Chin. &ldquo Traditionally, it&rsquo s a period where clients go on holiday, so there may be fewer trades.&rdquo
Even with the rebound in WM fees, Wong says she &ldquo wouldn&rsquo t paint too rosy a picture&rdquo . &ldquo We need to see that momentum going investors are still sitting a bit on the fence.&rdquo For now, she hopes to capture fees from transactions, particularly remittances and cross-border fund flows, but remains cautious about a lower level of trade activity within Asia. &ldquo If we see another uptick in the last quarter, I&rsquo ll be quite happy. Hopefully, the momentum will continue. But it is very difficult to project how much higher it will be.&rdquo
Dividends and ROE
After paying an interim dividend of 40 cents per share in 1HFY2023, OCBC&rsquo s common equity tier 1 (CET-1) ratio fell to 14.8%, down 0.6 ppts q-o-q, but higher than 14.4% in 3QFY2022. This is still above OCBC&rsquo s aim to bring CET-1 towards 14% in the short to medium term. Even with OCBC&rsquo s 50% dividend payout policy, some analysts are still hopeful of a special dividend at the end of FY2023, especially with excess CET-1.
The bank remains committed to the dividend policy, says Wong, but she cautions against correlating CET-1 with special payouts. &ldquo Whether there&rsquo s any upside, it all depends on how we look at our capital positioning for the next year.&rdquo For context, OCBC increased its FY2022 payout by 28% to 68 cents, equivalent to a payout ratio of 53%, compared to 49% in FY2021.
In any case, Wong says the bank is on track to deliver its target of $3 billion in incremental revenue by 2025, a goal the bank unveiled at its brand refresh in July.
Last quarter, management projected that a sixth of the $3 billion will be delivered this year, a third next year and the remaining half in 2025. OCBC &ldquo should be able to achieve&rdquo the 2023 target of $500 million in additional revenue by the end of this year, says Wong. As at September, OCBC is also &ldquo on target&rdquo to achieve its end-2023 return on equity (ROE) target of &ldquo above 14%&rdquo , she adds.
Analysts maintain estimates
Following the results, PhillipCapital&rsquo s Glenn Thum has kept his &ldquo buy&rdquo call and $14.96 target price, as he maintains his view that NII will grow in FY2024, driven by stable NIMs and rising loans. Fee income is seen to recover too. &ldquo OCBC is our preferred pick among the three banks due to attractive valuations and a dividend yield of 6.6%, buffered by a well-capitalised 14.8% CET-1 and fee income recovery from China&rsquo s reopening,&rdquo he says.
RHB Bank Singapore, which has a $13.70 price target, likes OCBC for its strong asset quality metrics, which is a &ldquo potential differentiating factor in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment&rdquo . A higher-for-longer rate may keep the bank&rsquo s NIM elevated, though this may come at the expense of loan growth and asset quality, says RHB, which rates OCBC its top local bank pick. &ldquo Hence, FY2024 credit cost should be higher versus FY2023 but not by a significant quantum.&rdquo
Citi Research analyst Tan Yong Hong has also kept his target price of $13. &ldquo [The] market [is] likely overly focused on exit NIM as OCBC had to replace additional tier 1 (AT1) they have redeemed with interest-bearing deposits. Taking a step back, AT1 is below CET-1 and coupon payments are paid out of capital.&rdquo
Tan adds: &ldquo We view OCBC&rsquo s redemption of AT1 post-stress-testing portfolio as a mark of confidence. Singapore banks have guided that NIMs have peaked. Further, OCBC&rsquo s 1.3x multiplier to risk-weighted assets for operational risks has been lifted and this will add [around] 30 bps of capital.&rdquo
With a higher CET-1, Tan thinks OCBC is in a &ldquo strong position&rdquo to maintain its dividend payout ratio of 50%. Despite his &ldquo neutral&rdquo rating, due to a possible recession in the US in 2024, Tan thinks OCBC could distribute higher dividends in 4QFY2023.
While DBS Group Research analyst Lim Rui Wen has kept her &ldquo hold&rdquo call like her peers, she is less upbeat on OCBC&rsquo s outlook. The analyst, who has a $13.70 target price on this counter, sees limited growth catalysts for now as the Fed&rsquo s rate cycle nears its peak. She also believes OCBC&rsquo s NIM peaked in 3QFY2023, with &ldquo limited headroom for loan repricing&rdquo in 4QFY2023. &ldquo We believe the bulk of the banks&rsquo share price re-rating from higher interest rates is over.&rdquo
UBS analysts Aakash Rawat and Benjamin Tan are also &ldquo neutral&rdquo on OCBC with a target price of $12.97. They have, however, raised their FY2024 and FY2025 wealth management fee estimates by 6% to 20%, which represents 25%&ndash 32% y-o-y growth

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/xi-jinping-joe-biden-us-china-apec-taiwan-asean-3924756

 

https://fengcx.com/news/detail/56454687.shtml

 

cash standby liked in 2020

https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/treasury-bills-statistics

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3F3vjO8UY2E

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/billionaire-investor-ackman-says-he-is-shorting-30-year-treasuries-2023-08-03/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-06/hedge-funds-catapulted-treasury-shorts-to-record-at-wrong-time#xj4y7vzkg

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvR60Wg9R7Q