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tccroy      ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 16:57) Posted: I am trying to buy another 40,000 shares at 46. Hopefully can get it when market closes.

 

I am trying to buy another 40,000 shares at 46. Hopefully can get it when market closes.

 

Look at the run up from 6 June, from $4 to the day before the announcement of the operating license - $4.65 and then the announcement, run to $5.20.
With the downgrading and in the absence of a positive profit guidance, your estimation may be correct.

Thanks

 

trader1970      ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 15:27) Posted: Bro you are great to share with us yesterday night on this downgrade report. Not much shortist for the past 1 to 2 weeks means today drop due to heavy shorting and geninue sellers taking profits or cut loss.  Safe entry point is ard 41+- if 44 breaks which is highly probable as I suspect BBs have distributed from above 50 since last week...and hope to scoop bac low...  chiachiawee      ( Date: 27-Jun-2023 22:51) Posted: CIMB pull the rug, reduced TP to 0.37, even based on higher P/E multiple. Refer to InvestingNote for the CIMB report. Cheers.

 

From another forum:
I believe by now most investors would have seen the "credible" CIMB report. I am here to calm long term investors by offering 5 counter points to the CFA certified analyst.

1) In the report, he mentioned China PMI is below 50 from Jan - May 2023. This is false. It was only below 50 (contractionary) in April and May. Did he get the figures from onion news?

2) In the report he mentioned that the 3 CODs of hydroplants are fully priced in, while giving a forward p/e 9. This clearly shows that he did not do his investigations properly. The p/e of indonesian hydro listco is in 25-35 range. Even discounting that, how could a p/e 9 be used for a recurring and defensive income from hydro? Proper calculations is required to separate earnings from hydro and earnings from core business, whilst giving each income their respective earnings. To me, that's lazy analytics from CIMB.

3) In the report he mentioned that he expected chinese pmi to worsen while cutting earnings in FY 23 - FY 25 by more than 40%. That would mean china will stop manufacturing for half the world in the next 3 years. Clearly that shows incompetency in understanding China. IMF raised chinese GDP from 4.4% to 5.2%, while World Bank raised chinese GDP from 4.3% to 5.6%.

4) Bloomberg statistics showed that if retail investors followed his calls exactly, they will receive a negative return of 40% in 2022. This is estimated as such: When he calls for add, and you add, you will lose money because share price went down. When he calls for hold, and you hold, you will lose money because share price went down. Now he calls for reduce, you know what to do to earn money? =)

5) The analyst from CIMB has been covering the company for a long time. I am surprised by his lack of understanding of the company's operations & business. It is evident in his analysis that he places no thoughts on doing proper financial modelling, simply putting figures in his outdated excel file, and having no idea how to value different income streams. I wonder where he gets his CFA.

Of course, the world is now in recession, and though China is not in a recession but projected GROWTH of 5% instead, it will be inevitable that external demand will be affected. Couple this together with semicon downturn, we have a gathering storm. However investors should look beyond cyclical industry and take comfort that the boss has the foresight to create another alpha growth engine in recessionary proof business - hydroplants. ISDN is an official sponsor and developer of hydroplants in indonesia, that itself creates a deep business moat. Once the world emerges from this recession, we will witness the phoenix rise again. But meanwhile, do understand that analysts (as all humans) will have self interests when publishing certain reports. He may counting the gains from his shorts. Who knows?

PS: Now you know why analyst is spelt as anal-yst. Don't believe everything they report. You may get a handful of his excrements. =)

 

Thanks for the update.  Although I was waiting for an analyst' s update, I missed it.
In future, please increase the font size...

chiachiawee      ( Date: 27-Jun-2023 22:51) Posted: CIMB pull the rug, reduced TP to 0.37, even based on higher P/E multiple. Refer to InvestingNote for the CIMB report. Cheers.

 

Bro you are great to share with us yesterday night on this downgrade report. Not much shortist for the past 1 to 2 weeks means today drop due to heavy shorting and geninue sellers taking profits or cut loss.  Safe entry point is ard 41+- if 44 breaks which is highly probable as I suspect BBs have distributed from above 50 since last week...and hope to scoop bac low... 

chiachiawee      ( Date: 27-Jun-2023 22:51) Posted: CIMB pull the rug, reduced TP to 0.37, even based on higher P/E multiple. Refer to InvestingNote for the CIMB report. Cheers.

 

Better take this rare opportunity to enter. Piscesmonkey and myself loaded today.

wehuattogether88      ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 15:06) Posted: Very highly likely, had said that they will buy much much more with this opportunity. piscesmonkey      ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 14:47) Posted: Never saw cimb selling. Maybe cimb buying 😆

 

Very highly likely, had said that they will buy much much more with this opportunity.

piscesmonkey      ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 14:47) Posted: Never saw cimb selling. Maybe cimb buying 😆 piscesmonkey      ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 14:46) Posted: Kgi and ubs short? Later 430pm cover

 

To win this AI selling it depend more on human synergy to kill this selling...

 

Not as smart as what I expecting.

tongphlp      ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 14:18) Posted: try chatGPT.. Elf2000      ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 14:12) Posted: Waiting for the human to beat the AI selling... Once big buy q appear sure AI will re-adjust their position...

 

Never saw cimb selling. Maybe cimb buying 😆

piscesmonkey      ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 14:46) Posted: Kgi and ubs short? Later 430pm cover? piscesmonkey      ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 14:45) Posted: Test some before lunch at 465. Ubs using small shares to short hah

 

Kgi and ubs short? Later 430pm cover?

piscesmonkey      ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 14:45) Posted: Test some before lunch at 465. Ubs using small shares to short haha TraderBen      ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 14:42) Posted: am in also.. bought some KGI.. likely they are instigating fear in retailers.

 

Test some before lunch at 465. Ubs using small shares to short haha

TraderBen      ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 14:42) Posted: am in also.. bought some KGI.. likely they are instigating fear in retailers.. piscesmonkey      ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 14:23) Posted: Long time no play isdn liao now bought 460 try luck 🙏

 

am in also.. bought some KGI.. likely they are instigating fear in retailers..

piscesmonkey      ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 14:23) Posted: Long time no play isdn liao now bought 460 try luck 🙏 tccroy      ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 14:19) Posted: Bro, all the best

 

Long time no play isdn liao now bought 460 try luck 🙏

tccroy      ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 14:19) Posted: Bro, all the best piscesmonkey      ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 14:13) Posted: Bought 100lot at 460 try luck 😆

 

Bro, all the best

piscesmonkey      ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 14:13) Posted: Bought 100lot at 460 try luck 😆

 

try chatGPT..

Elf2000      ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 14:12) Posted: Waiting for the human to beat the AI selling... Once big buy q appear sure AI will re-adjust their position...

 

Sellwr KGI

piscesmonkey      ( Date: 28-Jun-2023 14:13) Posted: Bought 100lot at 460 try luck 😆

 

Bought 100lot at 460 try luck 😆

 

Waiting for the human to beat the AI selling... Once big buy q appear sure AI will re-adjust their position...