U.S. government steps in and says people with funds deposited at SVB will be able to access their money

PUBLISHED SUN, MAR 12 20236:16 PM EDTUPDATED 26 MIN AGO
Silicon Valley Bank depositors protected by U.S. government (cnbc.com)

KEY POINTS

Regulators approved plans Sunday to backstop both depositors and financial institutions associated with Silicon Valley Bank.
Officials will unwind both SVB and Signature Bank, ensuring that depositors will have full access to their funds on Monday.
The Federal Reserve stepped in with a separate facility that will provide loans up to one year for institutions affected by the bank failures.
&ldquo Today we are taking decisive actions to protect the U.S. economy by strengthening public confidence in our banking system,&rdquo leading regulators said in a joint statement.

US 16th largest bank SVB collapsed...........contagion is a very real possibility.

5.75% - 6.25%

IMO,
Dow heading to a new low.................25xxx to 26xxx.....within 10 months

1) US economy is doing very well at the moement.
2) Unemployment at historic low.
3) Inflation tick up after people expects rate hike to slow down which is what Fed did in the last meeting with a 25basis point hike only.
4) Drawing from the lessons from previous inflation and rate hike cycles, Fed is in danger of repeating past mistakes of easing the foot off the rate hike pedal too early.
5) Market will be spooke with every economic indicators that points to a pick up or potential pick up in inflation.
6) Oil price is a big factor in inflation, hence, anything that can case oil price increases needs to be monitored.

The Fed, has a dual mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. In pursuit of these goals, the Fed has several tools at its disposal to address high inflation. Here are some of the ways the Fed may approach high inflation now:

Monetary policy: The Fed can use monetary policy to control inflation by adjusting short-term interest rates. In response to high inflation, the Fed may increase interest rates to reduce the growth of money supply and dampen demand for goods and services. This could help to slow down price increases and bring inflation under control.
Communication: The Fed can use its public statements and press conferences to communicate its intentions and influence expectations of inflation. By clearly communicating its commitment to price stability, the Fed may be able to anchor inflation expectations and prevent them from becoming unmoored.
Tools beyond interest rates: The Fed has other tools beyond interest rates that it can use to influence the economy, such as open market operations, forward guidance, and quantitative easing. These tools could be used to address high inflation if interest rates alone are not effective.
Fiscal policy coordination: The Fed may coordinate with fiscal policymakers to address high inflation. For example, fiscal policies that reduce demand and lower inflationary pressures, such as tax increases or spending cuts, could be used in conjunction with the Fed' s monetary policies.
International coordination: The Fed may work with other central banks around the world to coordinate their monetary policies and stabilize exchange rates. This could help to reduce inflationary pressures and promote price stability in the global economy.

also we have been seeing digital banking coming out. Trust bank and GRAB SINGTEL partnership

Chinese stocks could plunge by 20% if real estate troubles get much worse, Morgan Stanley says

PUBLISHED FRI, SEP 2 20221:31 AM EDT

KEY POINTS

Morgan Stanley analysts laid out an economic scenario for China if authorities do not provide enough funding and other support to stabilize the real estate market.
Chinese stocks would plunge, GDP would slow and unemployment would rise, the analysts said.
However, they said spillover from real estate to the rest of China&rsquo s economy &ldquo remains manageable so far.&rdquo

Morgan Stanley: Chinese stocks could plunge if real estate gets worse (cnbc.com)

China Property Debt Crisis Is Just Beginning, Charlene Chu Says

Charlene Chu sees further problems for China real estate
Ex-Fitch analyst says debt weighing on China economic growth

By

Chris Anstey

July 7, 2022 at 12:00 PM GMT+8

China Real Estate Market Slide &lsquo Early&rsquo in Game After $1 Trillion Defaults - Bloomberg

FEDERAL RESERVE

Fed sees &lsquo more restrictive&rsquo policy as likely if inflation fails to come down, minutes say

PUBLISHED WED, JUL 6 20222:01 PM EDTUPDATED 6 HOURS AGO

Fed minutes June 2022: ' More restrictive' policy likely if inflation fails to come down (cnbc.com)

KEY POINTS

Federal Reserve officials at their June meeting said another interest rate increase of 50 or 75 basis points is likely at the July meeting, according to minutes released Wednesday.
Policymakers &ldquo recognized the possibility that an even more restrictive stance could be appropriate if elevated inflation pressures were to persist,&rdquo the document said.

These major economies are headed into recession in the next 12 months, Nomura says

PUBLISHED TUE, JUL 5 20222:18 AM EDTUPDATED AN HOUR AGO

US, UK, Europe, Japan will be in recession over next 12 months: Nomura (cnbc.com)

KEY POINTS

Many of the world&rsquo s leading economies will fall into a recession within the next 12 months as central banks move to aggressively tighten monetary policy to fight surging inflation, according to the chief economist at brokerage firm Nomura holdings.
&ldquo Right now central banks many of them have shifted to essentially a single mandate and that&rsquo s to get inflation down. Monetary policy credibility is too precious an asset to lose. So they&rsquo re going to be very aggressive,&rdquo said Rob Subbaraman, who is also head of global markets research, Asia ex-Japan.
In addition to the U.S, Nomura expects recessions in the euro area, the U.K., Japan, South Korea, Australia and Canada next year, the brokerage firm said in a research note.

Standard Chartered hit by bad loans including Hin Leong

Bloomberg 27/04/2020, 2:46pm

(Apr 27): Problem loans at some of Standard Chartered Plc&rsquo s large clients may top $600 million as a string of corporate scandals coincides with woes at firms hit by the coronavirus pandemic.

NMC Health Plc, the hospital operator that&rsquo s uncovered evidence of fraud, and Hin Leong Trading (Pte.), the Singaporean trading house being investigated by police, represent nearly $500 million of lending for Standard Chartered, according to public filings. Separately, a South African farm bank that the London-based company lends to has defaulted on some of its debt.

thank u again!

Luzern ( Date: 15-Apr-2020 15:53) Posted:

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thks Luzern👍

Luzern ( Date: 15-Apr-2020 15:52) Posted:

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any update of this? btw, is this info freely available on SGX, if so where exactly is it? TIA.🤓

Luzern ( Date: 30-Mar-2020 12:52) Posted:

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LOL ! SIA???!! Retailers got burn. HKLand? City Dev?!

Can see that retailers are attracted to 52 wks low and divs chasing without paying attention to the forward looking of a company

Long with cash. Situation are still volatile, with cash, there is no pressure on daily funding. Whether your long becomes an investment or not is dependent on the individual.

IMO.

famouspinky ( Date: 03-Mar-2020 09:25) Posted:

On 28/2 ur call was hard to long. On 2/3, ur call was to long. In conclusion, invest and not speculate?

Luzern ( Date: 03-Mar-2020 09:01) Posted:

The Mental Preparation and Ground Work

Luzern ( Date: 26-Feb-2020 09:15) Posted:

Read widely, keeping up to date and most importantly keeping an open mind. With the up-to-date information and unbias thinking, come up with different likely scenarious and allocate your investment money accordingly as events unfolds. Also very important, use you emotions wisely when making investment decisions. Use it to feel the markets and " herd mentality" , but do not let it get to you and putting you in a " greed and/or fear " situation.

Keeping up to dates with the news and adjust your plan accordingly

Luzern ( Date: 28-Feb-2020 09:35) Posted:

1) The next support for Dow is the 25300 - 25500 level. which is the 13.7% correction from Dow all time high. Which is also the ave of the last 26 Dow market correction since WWII.

2) Dow will attempt to bounce from every support now as it is over sold. But the problem is these rebounce are not back by any tangible real world positive situation changes. or short, not supported by positive trigger event/s.

3) The market is now is a panic mode due to Europe virus accelerated spread and US confirmed community spread.

4) Looking at the situation in Germany and France and soon Spain, cases over in these countries might just spike up like what Italy experienced last weekend.

5) US is another unknown, like Europe, things might accelerate over the weekend as well.

6) Longing now would be a tough call, even with cash. If really want to long, go for the defensive and do it in batches, like 5 batches would be good.

IMO, DYOD

The potential Trigger Events

Luzern ( Date: 26-Feb-2020 10:09) Posted:

For indexes, every support level will provide an opportunity for them to stage a rebounce, a significant rebounce will happen when there is a (or few) significant positive trigger event/s.

Positives
1) Virus Containment
2) Fed rate cut
3) Trump play his " nice card" with China, perhaps a temporary reduction in tarrif of imports from China?
4) Proven Cure/Vaccine

Negatives
1) Acceration in virus spread in Europe and Middle East
2) Community virus spread in US
3) WHO declare pandemic

Indicators, TA.

Luzern ( Date: 29-Feb-2020 15:28) Posted:

The 52 weeks low and others .

Luzern ( Date: 02-Mar-2020 16:10) Posted:
like the 61.8% ........................measured from Nov/Dec 2018

Luzern ( Date: 02-Mar-2020 16:16) Posted:
VIX already is one of the highest in history lieow, US, Germany, France, Italy people already panic buy stuffs. So its a good bet that the market have already oversold on fear and this coupled with the central banks and fed expected intervention and rate cut is fueling this rebounce. Unless you are expecting a Lehman level of panic sell, this is a reasonably good time to invest, with cash.

IMO, DYODD.