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Thank you for the advise.
I prefer not to buy counter with complex arrangement eg Buy this, get that Or issue rights etc. Lazy to monitor. That's why didn't even realise SCM got 5 rights & at 0.20 till yesterday night..... so laughable.
josemmm123 ( Date: 16-Jul-2020 18:43) Posted:
Why not u reinvest the fund u got from selling SCM into SCI instead...?? I got a feeling u buy SCI at $1.80 (roughly) now, then after demerger , it will drop to $1.20-$1.30 BUT after it' s first few results without SCM, the share price will chiong back to $1.80 becos of the far better performance and higher dividends without the drag from SCM.
The rerating of SCI as pure energy company without SCM dragging it' s feet, may occur which could means SCI shooting from $1.20-$1.30 back above $2.
So in actual fact, let say you buy 10 lot semb ind at $1.80 = $18000 now, u getting back ur $18000 (after SCI first few results without SCM) and about 40-50 lots free Semb marine shares. So the 40-50 lots free SCM will fetch u 40 x $200 = $8000 (assuming worse case of SCM trading at 20 cents).
So u almost getting back half ur capital. At least can compensate some of the amount u lost ...
Long term wise, SCI without SCM will reach $2 easily within 1 year. Then the free SCM shares u can then bet on some recovery of oil price and the successful branching into other businesses..
Just my opinion...
Sgvale ( Date: 16-Jul-2020 18:32) Posted:
Thank you josemmm123. You have been helpful.
I saw the Co. past financial announcements last night. Feel not comfortable & confidence to invest in the rights. Throwing good money when the Co. cash flow is negative, no business visibility or profitability for many years to come. Share dilution especially with 1:5 rights . .
When i bought at $1.10+ , thought cheap compared to people bought above $2.50. It plunge . When I bought again at $0.70+ to average, it now becomes $0.45 with rights pricing at $0.20.
Risk is too big. I have enough & sold all today. |
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I think the right choice is switch to SCI. If you own 2000 shares of SCI, you get 9000 shares SCM for free.
josemmm123 ( Date: 16-Jul-2020 17:33) Posted:
another way is to switch ur fund from Semb Marine to Semb Ind :)
Sgvale ( Date: 16-Jul-2020 17:17) Posted:
| No visibility. Before Covid already in a bad shape. Now with the global economy like this , i really have my reservation. |
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Why not u reinvest the fund u got from selling SCM into SCI instead...?? I got a feeling u buy SCI at $1.80 (roughly) now, then after demerger , it will drop to $1.20-$1.30 BUT after it' s first few results without SCM, the share price will chiong back to $1.80 becos of the far better performance and higher dividends without the drag from SCM.
The rerating of SCI as pure energy company without SCM dragging it' s feet, may occur which could means SCI shooting from $1.20-$1.30 back above $2.
So in actual fact, let say you buy 10 lot semb ind at $1.80 = $18000 now, u getting back ur $18000 (after SCI first few results without SCM) and about 40-50 lots free Semb marine shares. So the 40-50 lots free SCM will fetch u 40 x $200 = $8000 (assuming worse case of SCM trading at 20 cents).
So u almost getting back half ur capital. At least can compensate some of the amount u lost ...
Long term wise, SCI without SCM will reach $2 easily within 1 year. Then the free SCM shares u can then bet on some recovery of oil price and the successful branching into other businesses..
Just my opinion...
Sgvale ( Date: 16-Jul-2020 18:32) Posted:
Thank you josemmm123. You have been helpful.
I saw the Co. past financial announcements last night. Feel not comfortable & confidence to invest in the rights. Throwing good money when the Co. cash flow is negative, no business visibility or profitability for many years to come. Share dilution especially with 1:5 rights . .
When i bought at $1.10+ , thought cheap compared to people bought above $2.50. It plunge . When I bought again at $0.70+ to average, it now becomes $0.45 with rights pricing at $0.20.
Risk is too big. I have enough & sold all today.
josemmm123 ( Date: 16-Jul-2020 17:57) Posted:
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Thank you josemmm123. You have been helpful.
I saw the Co. past financial announcements last night. Feel not comfortable & confidence to invest in the rights. Throwing good money when the Co. cash flow is negative, no business visibility or profitability for many years to come. Share dilution especially with 1:5 rights . .
When i bought at $1.10+ , thought cheap compared to people bought above $2.50. It plunge . When I bought again at $0.70+ to average, it now becomes $0.45 with rights pricing at $0.20.
Risk is too big. I have enough & sold all today.
josemmm123 ( Date: 16-Jul-2020 17:57) Posted:
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another way is to switch ur fund from Semb Marine to Semb Ind :)
Sgvale ( Date: 16-Jul-2020 17:17) Posted:
| No visibility. Before Covid already in a bad shape. Now with the global economy like this , i really have my reservation. |
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hmm... maybe u could have dump just immediately after the deal is approved during the EGM cos there will be a short duration of euphoria when the deal is approved and the share price may go up to 50 cents ..
But anyway u sold liao ..
Sgvale ( Date: 16-Jul-2020 17:10) Posted:
I bite The bullets & dumped all at 0.445 -0.45 at more than 50% loss. No confidence even after its Rights issue. Basically a cash burning Co.In future price level attractive enough then consider.
danger ( Date: 16-Jul-2020 10:28) Posted:
| When can back to $6 again |
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No visibility. Before Covid already in a bad shape. Now with the global economy like this , i really have my reservation.
Think they urgently need to draw funds from the public.
josemmm123 ( Date: 16-Jul-2020 16:04) Posted:
http://research.sginvestors.io/2020/07/sembcorp-marine-uob-kay-hian-research-2020-07-16.html
The timing is brought forward by 2 weeks. So EGM happening mid August which means share price of both SCI and SCM will start to rise towards EGM soon!!!!
No wonder BBs detected in todays trading (100 shares buy up/sell down). |
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I bite The bullets & dumped all at 0.445 -0.45 at more than 50% loss. No confidence even after its Rights issue. Basically a cash burning Co.In future price level attractive enough then consider.
danger ( Date: 16-Jul-2020 10:28) Posted:
When can back to $6 again ?
Sgvale ( Date: 16-Jul-2020 10:20) Posted:
| Price like stabilise. Knife on neck just ok to rights & ask for floats. Don't know when can back to $1.10? |
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http://research.sginvestors.io/2020/07/sembcorp-marine-uob-kay-hian-research-2020-07-16.html
The timing is brought forward by 2 weeks. So EGM happening mid August which means share price of both SCI and SCM will start to rise towards EGM soon!!!!
No wonder BBs detected in todays trading (100 shares buy up/sell down).
When can back to $6 again ?
Sgvale ( Date: 16-Jul-2020 10:20) Posted:
| Price like stabilise. Knife on neck just ok to rights & ask for floats. Don't know when can back to $1.10? |
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Price like stabilise. Knife on neck just ok to rights & ask for floats. Don't know when can back to $1.10?
Hi better or rather TA_Expert,
Now the loss is so huge and yet u die die want to veto the deal, u want to become like Hyflux?
U know Hyflux BEGGING temasek to help but govt dun allow. Now Temasek wants to help you, u want to veto?
Maybe u exchange ur Semb marine shares with those Hyflux shareholders, they are more than willing to do so...
better ( Date: 16-Jul-2020 01:58) Posted:
Just went through SMM' s 1H 2020 results and financial statements. It is unspoken that the CEO needs to openly support the rights issue because
1) SCI controls SMM' s board and decides whether he gets to keep his CEO post. So, Obviously, he has to do their bidding.
2) The additional cash injection will make his job a breeze and he can reinstate his salary earlier and pay himself and management good bonuses sooner rather than later.
Facts are
1) the " losses" are due to accelerated depreciation of a yard value in Q1 and delayed revenue recognition in Q2. Like most companies, this is the kitchen sink quarter when the management will try to throw all they have got at it so they can report " improved" numbers in subsequent quarters. Basically, creative accounting, for those who understand what it means.
2) Cash on hand has increased from $780mil a year ago to the current $1.1billion. Or from S389mil a quarter ago to $1.1billion currently. Bottomline is, SMM is flooded with cash. More government cash handouts from job credit scheme and foreign worker levies etc. on the way
3) It is mentioned in the report that they should have no problem rolling over existing debt that is coming due. In their own words- " In June 2020, we completed the refinancing of three term loans due that month, with longer term maturities. The Group expects to have adequate existing loan facilities to repay or refinance current borrowings as they fall due."
4) SMM seems to be making good progress in scheduling windmill projects, the next growth frontier, to supplmentary its traditional business lines.
In conclusion, SMM does not need the right issues to survive or thrive. The rights issue is for SCI to get off the hooks, with Temasek' s support, at the expense of SMM' s minority shareholders. So again, the only logical choice for SMM' s minority shareholders is to veto the whitewash.
Disclaimer: I am an interested party with 990 lots of SMM shares.
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That user " better" is TA_Expert in disguise :) ignore him
arctician1982 ( Date: 16-Jul-2020 09:36) Posted:
if dont do right issues, then assume they use current $1b cash to return the $1.5b owed to SCI, where to find cash to sustain burn rate of $200M every 6 mths?
better ( Date: 16-Jul-2020 01:58) Posted:
Just went through SMM' s 1H 2020 results and financial statements. It is unspoken that the CEO needs to openly support the rights issue because
1) SCI controls SMM' s board and decides whether he gets to keep his CEO post. So, Obviously, he has to do their bidding.
2) The additional cash injection will make his job a breeze and he can reinstate his salary earlier and pay himself and management good bonuses sooner rather than later.
Facts are
1) the " losses" are due to accelerated depreciation of a yard value in Q1 and delayed revenue recognition in Q2. Like most companies, this is the kitchen sink quarter when the management will try to throw all they have got at it so they can report " improved" numbers in subsequent quarters. Basically, creative accounting, for those who understand what it means.
2) Cash on hand has increased from $780mil a year ago to the current $1.1billion. Or from S389mil a quarter ago to $1.1billion currently. Bottomline is, SMM is flooded with cash. More government cash handouts from job credit scheme and foreign worker levies etc. on the way
3) It is mentioned in the report that they should have no problem rolling over existing debt that is coming due. In their own words- " In June 2020, we completed the refinancing of three term loans due that month, with longer term maturities. The Group expects to have adequate existing loan facilities to repay or refinance current borrowings as they fall due."
4) SMM seems to be making good progress in scheduling windmill projects, the next growth frontier, to supplmentary its traditional business lines.
In conclusion, SMM does not need the right issues to survive or thrive. The rights issue is for SCI to get off the hooks, with Temasek' s support, at the expense of SMM' s minority shareholders. So again, the only logical choice for SMM' s minority shareholders is to veto the whitewash.
Disclaimer: I am an interested party with 990 lots of SMM shares.
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There is more detail in the recent result.....definately only way out .
1. Pay cut
2. net CURRENT LIABILITIES of $259m as of Jun30th DUE over next 12 mths ....any choice ?
3. Cash flow neg $122m ..how to continue ( how to get new loan for new energy business ? Who will give u orders if this is not resolved)
The answer w some light in the tunnel is the rights issue offer path
Dyodd
if dont do right issues, then assume they use current $1b cash to return the $1.5b owed to SCI, where to find cash to sustain burn rate of $200M every 6 mths?
better ( Date: 16-Jul-2020 01:58) Posted:
Just went through SMM' s 1H 2020 results and financial statements. It is unspoken that the CEO needs to openly support the rights issue because
1) SCI controls SMM' s board and decides whether he gets to keep his CEO post. So, Obviously, he has to do their bidding.
2) The additional cash injection will make his job a breeze and he can reinstate his salary earlier and pay himself and management good bonuses sooner rather than later.
Facts are
1) the " losses" are due to accelerated depreciation of a yard value in Q1 and delayed revenue recognition in Q2. Like most companies, this is the kitchen sink quarter when the management will try to throw all they have got at it so they can report " improved" numbers in subsequent quarters. Basically, creative accounting, for those who understand what it means.
2) Cash on hand has increased from $780mil a year ago to the current $1.1billion. Or from S389mil a quarter ago to $1.1billion currently. Bottomline is, SMM is flooded with cash. More government cash handouts from job credit scheme and foreign worker levies etc. on the way
3) It is mentioned in the report that they should have no problem rolling over existing debt that is coming due. In their own words- " In June 2020, we completed the refinancing of three term loans due that month, with longer term maturities. The Group expects to have adequate existing loan facilities to repay or refinance current borrowings as they fall due."
4) SMM seems to be making good progress in scheduling windmill projects, the next growth frontier, to supplmentary its traditional business lines.
In conclusion, SMM does not need the right issues to survive or thrive. The rights issue is for SCI to get off the hooks, with Temasek' s support, at the expense of SMM' s minority shareholders. So again, the only logical choice for SMM' s minority shareholders is to veto the whitewash.
Disclaimer: I am an interested party with 990 lots of SMM shares.
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His nick is Ruan Lai, english is anyhow...
josemmm123 ( Date: 16-Jul-2020 03:23) Posted:
u must be dreaming :)
ruanlai ( Date: 16-Jul-2020 02:48) Posted:
SCM will be open free fall to below 30cents........4896
SCI will also get drag down below $1.60 on pre-open....9696 |
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Thought price will correct much today. But no. Seems stable but still near history low.
Those want to exit mostly exited. Pray price will reverse up from here
Sgvale ( Date: 16-Jul-2020 09:06) Posted:
| Those that remained in SCM today probably are pro rights buyers |
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