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With the 2nd interim dividend just declared (0.5 cents), 1H dividend = $0.8 cents. Expected final dividend around 1 cents (as 2H is usually the more profitable half)
Total dividend may reach 2 cents.
2 cents out of 28 cents give a yield of 7%.
So the current share price of 28 cents is GLOSSLY undervalued based on predicted dividend.
To reflect a worse case scenerio of 4% yield ,the share price should be trading at around 45 cents. But we all know this is impossible but a trading price of 30 cents is well within reach becos at 30 cents, the predicted yield is 6.7%.
Hopefully the cash that the company has on hand can be put to good use and the co-operation with Heinemann can lead the company out of malaysia.
Total dividend may reach 2 cents.
2 cents out of 28 cents give a yield of 7%.
So the current share price of 28 cents is GLOSSLY undervalued based on predicted dividend.
To reflect a worse case scenerio of 4% yield ,the share price should be trading at around 45 cents. But we all know this is impossible but a trading price of 30 cents is well within reach becos at 30 cents, the predicted yield is 6.7%.
Hopefully the cash that the company has on hand can be put to good use and the co-operation with Heinemann can lead the company out of malaysia.
HazardKoh ( Date: 03-Aug-2017 20:52) Posted:
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the rational behind my prediction a few weeks that share price will trade around 30 cents as the share price has to support the dividend yield. Cannot be trading at 50 cents for example becos the yield would be too low and unattractive. Cannot be trading at 20 cents becos the yield would be too high and too undervalued.
HazardKoh ( Date: 13-Jul-2017 18:19) Posted:
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1) Earning drops + 2) Increase number of issued shares ==> EPS (earning per share) dips ==> dividend dips
Right now interim dividend is around 0.3+ cents. Expected final dividend is around 1 cents . Total around 1.3 cents.
So 1.3 cents/30 cents(current share price) = around 4.x% dividend yield.
The share price cannot still be trading at 40 cents for example becos it would give a yield of only 3% which investors will find unattractive.
So share price drop to reflect the reduced dividend and the latest 4.x% dividend yield.
So if profit dips further, EPS also dips , dividend also dips then share price has to dip further to reflect the 4.x% dividend yield and vice versa.
U can buy if u think the earning and dividend will improve or u not buy if u think the earning will drop further depending on situation in malaysia and ringgit exchange rate
Right now interim dividend is around 0.3+ cents. Expected final dividend is around 1 cents . Total around 1.3 cents.
So 1.3 cents/30 cents(current share price) = around 4.x% dividend yield.
The share price cannot still be trading at 40 cents for example becos it would give a yield of only 3% which investors will find unattractive.
So share price drop to reflect the reduced dividend and the latest 4.x% dividend yield.
So if profit dips further, EPS also dips , dividend also dips then share price has to dip further to reflect the 4.x% dividend yield and vice versa.
U can buy if u think the earning and dividend will improve or u not buy if u think the earning will drop further depending on situation in malaysia and ringgit exchange rate
sgfreestyler ( Date: 03-Aug-2017 15:12) Posted:
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Ppl sell after dividend. Just a game of supply and demand.
It will get better very soon.
It will get better very soon.
Oh dear... what happen?
I just buy few days ago. :(
I just buy few days ago. :(
I would like to ask everyone to hold back on buying this shares for temporary.
For last two days, strong sell are observed. I believe is in relation to tourism tax in Msia, which i think not to worry (RM10 is nothing to Ang Mo)
The main issue is the company had stopped the share buyback. Maybe the accountant go on leave or there may be any insider arrangement.
I will update once sitiuation is clear.
For last two days, strong sell are observed. I believe is in relation to tourism tax in Msia, which i think not to worry (RM10 is nothing to Ang Mo)
The main issue is the company had stopped the share buyback. Maybe the accountant go on leave or there may be any insider arrangement.
I will update once sitiuation is clear.
Yesterday the company buy back 120k shares at the price of 0.325. It means that the share price is still cheap to them.
Currently, the company only buy back 3% of total maximum buyback (may not buyback in full until 10% of total capital). There is still 97% to go.
The share price will continue to rise, until the company stop the buy back.
I dont know how to compute TP. Others can advice.
CIMB - 0.330 (hold)
UOB - 0.370 (hold)
DBS - 0.520 (not-rated)
I need to remind you that those TP given by the bank does not consider share buyback by the company.
Currently, the company only buy back 3% of total maximum buyback (may not buyback in full until 10% of total capital). There is still 97% to go.
The share price will continue to rise, until the company stop the buy back.
I dont know how to compute TP. Others can advice.
CIMB - 0.330 (hold)
UOB - 0.370 (hold)
DBS - 0.520 (not-rated)
I need to remind you that those TP given by the bank does not consider share buyback by the company.
Share buy-back with average of 370k shares per day at average price of 0.315.
Buy at 0.320 700k shares (which i believe is q by the company itself)
Sell at 0.325 100k shares.
If there is no significant bad news, I believe the share price will gain after one or two months.
The issue is last year Q2 profit increase 60% against Yr 2014. The profit is expected to decrease and may scare of investors, but the earning per shares still high.
Buy at 0.320 700k shares (which i believe is q by the company itself)
Sell at 0.325 100k shares.
If there is no significant bad news, I believe the share price will gain after one or two months.
The issue is last year Q2 profit increase 60% against Yr 2014. The profit is expected to decrease and may scare of investors, but the earning per shares still high.
Ok. I trust you... I bought ~
HazardKoh ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 14:09) Posted:
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Ya dun worry this is one of the more safer stock, take dividend 😀
calvinlooi ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 13:45) Posted:
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Hazard is correct, the buy back range is usually 10% of 1 mth market price.
Buy back good to me in the sense that it stabilizes price. The company confidence that future price will rise. I buy very little only.
Buy back good to me in the sense that it stabilizes price. The company confidence that future price will rise. I buy very little only.
HazardKoh ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 13:25) Posted:
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Instead of using cash to pay dividend, they propose low dividend to lower market price, use the cash to buy back the shares. Shareholders take capital gain instead of dividend.
U can see the recent buy back is at range of 0.315. The most bottom is at 0.300.
the risk is low. Potential gain.
U can see the recent buy back is at range of 0.315. The most bottom is at 0.300.
the risk is low. Potential gain.
jack2906 ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 12:44) Posted:
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Sorry, not pouring cold water. Duty free is one of those slow moving counter.. Maybe will chiong from 30 to 45 cents once in 2 or 3 years when there are gd news like warrant issues.. Double the price is abit far fetch leh
mogambo ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 13:00) Posted:
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Err.. No company buy back the full allowable quota. If u look at how others buy back, out of 10% allowed they usually buy back up to 1 or 2%max just to stabilise the share price. Double share price as wat happens to rosley?? Duty free bought back in the year 2014, go look at wat happened. Once they stop buying back share price will dip towarsds 30 cents and even below depending on the market sentiment.
mogambo ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 13:00) Posted:
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price will double they sold 10% stake to Heineman and now buying back the same... Expect the price to reach 70 cents by the time the entire 122 million shares are bought back from the open market.
Source: Capital IQ Buybacks Database
Type: Buyback Transaction Announcements
From: 14/Jul/2017
Duty Free International Limited (SGX:5SO) announces an Equity Buyback for 122,850,039 shares, representing 10% of its issued share capital.
Source: Capital IQ Buybacks Database
Type: Buyback Transaction Announcements
From: 14/Jul/2017
Duty Free International Limited (SGX:5SO) commences share repurchases on July 13, 2017 under the program mandated by the shareholders in the Annual General Meeting held on June 29, 2017. As per the mandate, the company is authorized to repurchase up to 122,850,039 shares, representing 10% of the issued ordinary share capital. In case of on market repurchases, the maximum price that will be paid by the company for repurchases will be 105% of the average closing price over the period of five market days in which transactions in the shares on the SGX-ST were recorded before the day on which such purchase is made. While in case of off-market repurchases, the maximum price that will be paid by the company for repurchases will be 120% of the average closing price over the period of five market days in which transactions in the shares on the SGX-ST were recorded immediately preceding the date of offer by the company. The repurchased shares will be cancelled or will be held in treasury for subsequent resale for cash, or for transfer for the purposes of or pursuant to an employees&rsquo share scheme or for transfer as consideration for the acquisition of shares in or assets of another company or assets of a person or cancellation or for sale, transfer or otherwise use as treasury. The company will use its internal sources of funds and/or external borrowings, to finance the repurchase program. The share repurchase program will provide the company with a mechanism to facilitate the return of surplus cash over and above its ordinary capital requirements in an expedient and cost-effective manner. It will also provide the Directors with greater flexibility over the company&rsquo s share capital structure with a view to enhancing the EPS and/or NTA value per share. The share repurchase program shall expire at the earliest of the date on which the next Annual General Meeting of the company is held or is required to be held, the date on which the share buy-backs are carried out to the full extent mandated or the date on which the authority contained in the share buyback mandate is varied or revoked.
jack2906 ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 12:44) Posted:
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6. Poor dividend because they want use the cash to buy back ?
why this point make you want to buy?
why this point make you want to buy?
calvinlooi ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 12:38) Posted:
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I had added some for Duty Free at 0.32. For the
1. shares buy-back,
2. short-seller buy-back,
3. RM going strong,
4. Strong current assets with little debts,
5. Profit making position
6. Poor dividend because they want use the cash to buy back
1. shares buy-back,
2. short-seller buy-back,
3. RM going strong,
4. Strong current assets with little debts,
5. Profit making position
6. Poor dividend because they want use the cash to buy back
great the announcement to buy back 122 million shares or 10% has been made on SGX yesterday good luck to all of you invested here cheers.
Share Buy Back - Daily Share Buy-Back Notice::Share Buy Back - Daily Share Buy-Back Notice
Share Buy Back - Daily Share Buy-Back Notice::Share Buy Back - Daily Share Buy-Back Notice
mogambo ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 11:52) Posted:
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hazard if you know of buy back it is always good ... like i bought tiong seng at 26 cents just a 4 or 5 week ago now I am sitting in good profits... May be will add another big chunk here .. what do you think??
HazardKoh ( Date: 13-Jul-2017 18:19) Posted:
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